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And I just wanted to mention a few
more things about community ecology

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before I move onto the final lecture
which I've forecasted to you where

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I'm going to try to tie everything
together through a research story

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that I want to tell you about.
But before we go to that, I just

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want to present one very famous
ecological experiment

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from your textbook.
Because what we're trying to do here

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in this lecture is bring together
the first set of lectures where we

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talked about biogeochemical cycles
and productivity which we think of

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as the function of ecosystems with
the last set of lectures where we

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talked about population biology,
community structure where we

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actually talk about different
species and how they interact.

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And the structure of the community
effects productivity

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in biogeochemistry.
And these processes in turn feed

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back and affect the structure of the
community.  And this is something

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ecologists have known,
but it's not easy to demonstrate

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this experimentally.
So one of the famous experiments

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was done by David Tillman of the
University of Minnesota because

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these are very long-term experiments.
And, of course,

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it's easier to do these kinds of
experiments with plants because they

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actually stay put.
So he asked the question is the

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species diversity of plants in a
living community related to the

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productivity of that community,
and also the resistance and the

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resilience of that community to
stress?  So what he did is he set up

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plots.  And he went through
generations of graduate students

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monitoring these over many years.
This would be a plot that would

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have a single species in the plot.
And here's a plot that has 24

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different species in the plot.
If we mixed them together they were

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all indigenous species that would
grow there.  And he showed first

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that the total plant cover here as a
percent was a function of the number

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of species per plot.
So establishing that indeed

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productivity, the amount of plant
biomass produced was a function of

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species diversity.
And when you think about this it

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makes sense because the more diverse
species you have the more likely

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they're able to exploit the full
suite of resources in the soil and

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are probably more resistant to
predation.  So the more diverse the

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plot it has a greater biomass.
The next thing he looked at, and

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this is in your textbook,
was the effect of the biomass to the

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resistance to disturbance.
So this is a change in biomass one

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year before a drought and then to
the peak of the drought showing that

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this ratio increased with the number
of species.  And finally the

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resilience, that is how long it
takes for the community to recover

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after it's been stressed,
he was also able to show increase as

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the number of species increased.
So there is a relationship between

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community structure,
and indeed productivity,

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resistance and resilience increase
if there is more diversity,

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which is, of course, one of the
motivators for preserving species

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diversity on the planet
globally.  OK.

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Now we're going to try to tie all
this together through this story.

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Now, going back, many of the slides
that I'm going to show you you've

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already seen.  Parts of this story
you've already learned from my

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previous lectures,
so I'm trying to tie this together

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and remind what you know and help
you to think about how you can apply

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what you know to current issues in
global ecology.

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So you remember this,
our global carbon cycle showing the

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photosynthesis of the plants
balanced by the respiration of the

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plants and the animals.
You learned this.  And superimposed

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on that is our burning of fossil
fuels and land use changes,

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i.e., cutting down trees increasing
CO2 in the atmosphere.

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And as we showed last time,
I mean in the first set of lectures

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that this sudden excavation of this
fossil photosynthate is causing a

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dramatic increase in CO2 in the
atmosphere relative to historical

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concentrations of CO2.
This is thousands of years before

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present.
And we're worried about that.

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This is all reminding you, getting
you in the train of thought here.

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We're worried about that because
there's good evidence that these

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increases in CO2 are already
increasing the temperature of the

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planet.  This is average temperature
over the last thousand years.

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And if it isn't already there is
certainty that it will in

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the very near future.
So let's look here in the ocean,

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my favorite ecosystem, where the
phytoplankton,

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that you know all about now,
play a critical role in drawing CO2

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out of the atmosphere.
And this draw down is referred to

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as the ìbiological pumpî of the
oceans.  And we talked about this

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very briefly.  Here's the
phytoplankton community

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photosynthesizing,
drawing CO2 into the surface ocean.

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And then because of the food web,
that you've learned all about, most

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of this phytoplankton productivity
is eaten by zooplankton and by fish

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going through the marine food web.
As it's eaten they are respiring

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and CO2 is released and it goes
right out of the system.

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So CO2 in, CO2 out.  But some of
that carbon, some of that

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photosynthetic product finds its way
to the deep ocean through fecal

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pellets of zooplankton,
through aggregates of dead cells,

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through just basic mucus that fluffs
off of jellyfish.

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It's all carbon that came from
photosynthesis,

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but some of it settles down to the
deep ocean where it's chewed upon.

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Now, here is where all those deep
consumers that I showed you in the

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DVDs last time are.
There are fish and squid and

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jellyfish in the deep oceans that
feed on this carbon that rains down,

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because there is no photosynthesis
down there, and bacteria that then

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regenerates that organic carbon into
CO2.  So this functions as a pump.

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And the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the deep ocean is very

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high if you look at a depth
profile of CO2.

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This is depth and this is CO2.
And at the surface, of course,

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it's in equilibrium with the
atmosphere.  And it's very high in

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the deep ocean because at low
temperatures and pressures it can

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hold.  So this is a huge reservoir
of CO2, so much that if you did a

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thought experiment and you killed
all the life in the oceans and just

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shut off this biological pump and
then you let the oceans mix all the

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way to the bottom,
which they won't do,

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but this is just a thought
experiment.

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And you let that all equilibrate
with the atmosphere,

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all of that CO2, the concentration
in the atmosphere would double to

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triple what it is today.
That's how much CO2 is in the deep

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ocean.  And so this is a natural
function of the ocean ecosystem,

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is to maintain this pump and
maintain this gradient of CO2.

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So this you also learned,
remember?  That the oceans are not

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this homogeneous soup of
phytoplankton,

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but there are areas of very high
phytoplankton biomass and

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productivity and low biomass and
medium in the green here.

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And we talked about nutrient
limitation of that primary

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production, which is the
availability of nutrients.

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And what I told you was that the
sort of standard understanding of

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this system was that nitrogen and
phosphorus were the primary limiting

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nutrients, this is all review for
your final exam,

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in aquatic ecosystems.
But I told you that I was going to

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tell you in the last lecture that
there was more to it than that.

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And there is indeed much more to it
than that.

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So for years we thought that
nitrogen and phosphorus were the

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nutrients that were regulating this
differential productivity,

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but we knew that something was wrong
with our understanding.

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Because these satellite images,
which I just showed you, of the

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distribution of productivity showed
this distribution.

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But if you took a simulation model
and modeled the global productivity

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based on the availability of
nitrogen and phosphorus to the

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phytoplankton this is what
the model showed.

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They said this is what the ocean
should look like,

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not that.  There should be much more
productivity here in the equator and

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down here in the Southern Ocean than
there actually is.

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And, in fact, people wrote papers
why isn't the equator greener?

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And they had all these different
hypothesis for why that might be,

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a lot of them having to do with
grazing with the food web.

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Well, it turns out that iron is a
really important limiting factor in

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the ocean.  And this is a story that
has just unfolded in the last 15

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years.  And I'm not telling you in
exactly the order that it unfolded,

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but more or less in the order that
it unfolded.  A fellow named John

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Martin who is an oceanographer out
at Moss Landing Marine Labs had been

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studying iron for quite a
long time in the ocean.

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And he had a hypothesis that iron
was limiting.  But most people

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wouldn't believe him because most
people, when they went out to

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measure iron in the oceans,
got very high concentrations.

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So they said how could that be
limiting?  Well,

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it turned out that most people were
measuring contamination in their

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iron samples.  And if any of you
have ever been on a marine ship,

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if you look around the deck you
notice there is always rust.

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They are constantly painting marine
ships, right, because the seawater

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is very corrosive.
And so there is rust everywhere.

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And it turns out that you have to
be heroically clean in order to

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measure the concentration of iron in
seawater.  And John Martin and his

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group realized this and went out and
developed these techniques to

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collect the sample and to have it
never see air before it went into

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the sample bottle.
And they acid washed the sample

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bottles through this process which
takes weeks and weeks and weeks.

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I mean you had to really believe
that iron was limiting in order to

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go through all this agony to measure
the level.  So his group was able to

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measure really low levels of iron in
seawater, but still they weren't

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able to convince people because this
was such a totally different way of

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thinking about the oceans.
So there was a lot of pushback.

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He also argued that iron is
introduced to the oceans through

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atmospheric dust.
Those people did believe.

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And that if you looked at the
atmospheric dust flux,

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which is proportional to the iron
flux, you'd see that in the Atlantic

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it is relatively high because you
have wind patterns coming off these

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deserts in Africa.
And also over here in the Western

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Pacific it's relatively high.
It's low down here around the

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Antarctic because there's no land
source there.  So these patterns of

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dust delivery map on pretty well to
this discrepancy to what we see and

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what we model if nitrogen was the
limiting nutrient.

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So what John Martin argued was that
there was lots of nitrogen and

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phosphorus in these regions but
there's not enough iron for the

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phytoplanktons to actually
utilize that.

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Remember the Redfield ratio we
talked about, how it's the

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availability of nutrients relative
to what's required by the plant that

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determines what's limiting?
So he did some experiments where he

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went out in the boat and took
samples.  In the control sample he

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would add nothing and another sample
he would phosphorus and nitrogen and

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another sample would add iron.
And he was able to show that the

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addition of iron caused
phytoplankton to bloom.

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He said iron is limiting in these
regions of the ocean,

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but everybody said bah,
bah, bah, no it's not, we don't

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believe you.  They made up reasons
why these experiments couldn't be

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true.  There are not zooplankton in
the bottle so this and that and the

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other thing.  And so he persevered.
And he said OK.

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If you don't believe my bottle
experiment, I'm going to go out and

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I'm going to add iron to the ocean,
then you'll believe me.  So he said

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we're going to go out with a boat.
And what they did was, and my lab

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was involved in these experiments.
We had a small role, that's the

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boat, in measuring a certain
component of the phytoplankton.

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But they pumped iron into the
propeller wash of the boat and made

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a zigzag path in the ocean where
there is about ten kilometers by ten

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kilometers.  And the natural mixing
in the surface ocean in about a day

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would mix that iron through that
patch.  And, of course,

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meanwhile the patch is moving.
The oceans are moving, the patch is

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moving, they've got these location
buoys, the captain of the ship is

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going crazy trying to navigate
relative to these buoys rather than

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relative to the solid earth.
But we were able to actually follow

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the patch.  And,
oh, here's John Martin who was also

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a friend of mine.
And sadly enough he died of cancer

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before the first experiment showed
unequivocally that iron is limiting.

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But he knew it was so that was good.
Anyway, he threw out this line.

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ìGive me a half a tanker of iron and
I'll give you the next Ice Age.

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This was before the experiment
because he was trying to drum up

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enthusiasm for the experiment
because he wanted to do the science.

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But you see the connection here.
So what's the connection between a

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tanker of iron and an Ice Age?

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Exactly.  If you fertilize with iron,
the phytoplankton photosynthesized

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more.
It could be argued that they draw

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more CO2 out of the air and will
cool the planet.

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OK, so he got a lot of attention
because of that,

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even though this was a scientific
experiment.  So now I'm going to,

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and we'll come back to that, of
course, later.

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I'm going to take you on an
oceanographic cruise so you

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know what it's like.
And this is one that my post-doc

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went on.  This was not the first
iron fertilization experiment.

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There have been about five of them
now, but this was one of the

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00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,000
actually one of the more recent ones
that was done in the Southern Ocean.

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They've been done in the subArctic
Pacific, in the Equatorial Pacific.

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I went on the one in the Equatorial
Pacific because I'm a cruising

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light-weight, but my post-doc went
on the one in the Southern Ocean and

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00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:58,000
that's where these slides come from.
But just to show you what goes into

220
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:02,000
doing this.
These are the vats where they mixed

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00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:06,000
the iron which they mixed with an
acid solution.

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00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:11,000
And they also put in sulfur
hexafluoride which is an inert

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00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:15,000
tracer so they can use that to trace
the patch.  Here's the oceanographic

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00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:20,000
ship.  What you do when you launch a
cruise is you patch things in these

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00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:24,000
vans.  And sometimes you have your
whole lab in your van.

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00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:29,000
And, in fact, for this trace metal
clean work they have special trace

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00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:33,000
metal clean vans where they're all
Teflon lined and positive air

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00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:38,000
pressure and all of that.
So you ship this out to the

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00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:42,000
Antarctic, and it gets loaded onto
the ship, the van,

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00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:46,000
and then gets tied down.
This is what the lab looks like

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00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:51,000
before the scientists arrive.
It's just a bunch of tables that

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00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:55,000
are tied.  And these labs get broken
down and rebuilt for each cruise

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00:18:55,000 --> 00:19:00,000
because different types of
scientists have different needs.

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00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:04,000
And this is what it looks like when
everybody is settled in.

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00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:09,000
It's a very crude makeshift thing
very crowded with equipment and

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00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:13,000
wires and is all set up temporarily
for a month's worth of work.

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00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:18,000
So here's the shift leaving port.
They're going out of New Zealand

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00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:23,000
which is where most of these cruises
leave from for the Antarctic.

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00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:27,000
Here it is in the rough seas of the
Southern Ocean.  You cannot

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00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:32,000
see this very well.
But that's an iceberg which is a big

241
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:38,000
problem down there,
because that's just the tip of the

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00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:44,000
iceberg.  So navigation is very
tricky.  So here's a radar showing

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00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:50,000
these icebergs scattered around that
they have to look out for.

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00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:56,000
Here's another one.  Here's how the
samples are taken.

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00:19:56,000 --> 00:20:02,000
These little plastic PVC pipes are
all electronically wired.

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00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:06,000
And this ball,
when they're open,

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00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,000
is drawn into it.  So when these are
lowered in the water they fill up

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00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:14,000
with water, and then you trigger it
and the ball shuts it and then you

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00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:18,000
bring it up.  So you can set it,
say this one goes off at 5 meters,

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00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:22,000
that one 20, that one 50, that one
100, whatever.

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00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:26,000
Wherever you want them you set them,
and then it comes up and you have

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00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,000
your water sample.
Working in the Antarctic is

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00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:34,000
particularly difficult.
In this case this person is out

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00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:38,000
there taking the snow off of these
incubators that have sample water in

255
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:42,000
bottles trying to make the
phytoplankton think that they are

256
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:46,000
still in the ocean,
but they are in controlled

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00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:50,000
experiments here.
And they're taking the ice off so

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00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:54,000
that the light intensity stays the
same.  And this is to summarize the

259
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:58,000
results of the iron fertilization
experiment just in a picture.

260
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,000
This is the water without iron added
and this is the water with iron

261
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:07,000
added.  The addition of iron to
these waters causes major algal

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00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:12,000
blooms.  And here is just some of
the data.  We can just look at

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00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:16,000
chlorophyll ìaî,
which you know is a measure of

264
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:21,000
phytoplankton biomass in the patch
versus outside of the patch.

265
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:26,000
And this is actually a satellite
image taken off of the NASA

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00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:31,000
satellite of this iron-enriched
patch.

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00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:37,000
So there is no question now that the
availability of iron limits primary

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00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:43,000
productivity over vast regions of
the ocean.  I didn't think I was

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00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:50,000
going to use the board but I will
use the board.

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00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:56,000
And because the Redfield ratio,
which you guys now know, of carbon,

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00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:04,000
some nitrogen, some phosphorus.
Remember?  We talked about this,

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00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:13,000
106:16:1.  If we add iron to this,
iron is about 0.005.  Anyway, tiny

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00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:22,000
amounts of iron are required
relative to nitrogen and phosphorus

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00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:31,000
in order for a phytoplankton
cell to grow.

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00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:35,000
So you can leverage,
if there's abundance of nitrogen and

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00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:40,000
phosphorus, it just takes a little
bit of iron to get this big bloom.

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00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:44,000
And that was very appealing to
people.  Any time it takes a little

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00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:49,000
bit of something to get a lot of
something, I think people get

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00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:53,000
interested.  And I think what
motivated this whole interest in

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00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:58,000
ocean fertilization,
I think, is motivated subconsciously

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00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:02,000
a lot by man's ability to manipulate
a system so large with

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00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:07,000
so little effort.
But that's sort of a [subset?

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00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:12,000
.  So the success of these
scientific experiments,

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00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,000
were really just to go out there and
understand what regulated

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00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:21,000
productivity in the oceans,
were picked up very rapidly by

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00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:26,000
entrepreneurs.
And the proposal that was put

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00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:31,000
forward was to develop a commercial
ocean fertilization industry where

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00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:36,000
you'd fertilize the surface
oceans with iron.

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00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:40,000
And I'm kind of joking here that
money comes out the bottom,

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00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:45,000
but I'll show you how this works in
a minute.  And turn this into a

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00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:50,000
business.  And there are a lot of
unknown questions here.

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00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:55,000
First the experiment showed that
you could increase the phytoplankton

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00:23:55,000 --> 00:24:00,000
growth here, but they didn't show
that you could increase this export

294
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:05,000
because the timescale of this is
much longer than you can stay out on

295
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:10,000
a ship to follow it.
So it could be that this is

296
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:15,000
increased and then this arrow is
increased and you have no net flux.

297
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:20,000
There is a little data on this flux
now, but it's not compelling yet.

298
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:24,000
Then the next question is if this
was an industry,

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00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:29,000
could you actually verify how much
carbon was exported, if

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00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:33,000
it could be exported?
And then the collateral effects,

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00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,000
which we're going to talk about in a
minute, could it be made profitable?

302
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:41,000
And the biggest question is what
would the unintended consequences be

303
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:45,000
of such an intentional fertilization?
And this is where you guys come in

304
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,000
because you have learned in this
class a lot of things that could

305
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:53,000
help you assess what the unintended
consequences are,

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00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:57,000
and we're going to talk about that.
But how could you make money doing

307
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:01,000
this?
And it depends on a lot of things.

308
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:07,000
Right now you couldn't, but there
are people depending on a future in

309
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:13,000
which you could,
and this is the way it works.

310
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:18,000
There is an emerging market in
carbon trading credits,

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00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:24,000
especially for countries that did
sign the Kyoto Accord where there's

312
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:30,000
a commitment to reducing
CO2 emissions.

313
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:34,000
And so these carbon offset credits
are worth money.

314
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:39,000
So the way this would work is,
if it works, was you'd have this

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00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:44,000
industry, you'd fertilize with iron,
you'd be able to claim that you

316
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:48,000
buried X amount of carbon in the
deep ocean.  And with that claim

317
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:53,000
that would give you these carbon
offset credits that are worth money.

318
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:58,000
Utilities companies could then buy
those, and if there was a cap on how

319
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:03,000
much carbon emissions they could
have this would increase their cap.

320
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:07,000
So it's just like,
you've probably heard about tree

321
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,000
plantations generating carbon offset
credits.  And that's a going

322
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:15,000
industry now.  So that's how it
would work.  And there are companies,

323
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:20,000
these are some websites.
Planktos.com, they have patents

324
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:24,000
filed on this process.
How they're able to do that is

325
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:28,000
beyond me since it's published in
the open literature,

326
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:33,000
in the scientific literature,
but they do.

327
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:37,000
Their mission is to develop
formulations to [manage?

328
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:42,000
phytoplankton productivity in
carbon export.

329
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:46,000
There's another one that you don't
have in your slides.

330
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:51,000
I just slipped this in this morning.
But here's the website,

331
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:55,000
Green Sea Venture, if you're
interested.  But it's another

332
00:26:55,000 --> 00:27:00,000
company that is marketing
this idea.

333
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:05,000
And here's another.
I just saw this ad last month in

334
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:10,000
[EOS?] which is a publication of the
American Geophysical Union.

335
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:15,000
And it seeks professionals to work
on an ocean nourishment

336
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:20,000
demonstration.
This is a new word.

337
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:25,000
The oceans need to be ìnourishedî.
So there's a psychology here.

338
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:30,000
They'll talk about ocean deserts
that are nutrient poor,

339
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:35,000
need to be nourished.
And this is not only for

340
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:40,000
sequestering CO2,
but the claim is to increase wild

341
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:45,000
fish stocks by fertilization.
And so some of these outfits are

342
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:50,000
really on the edge of credibility,
and I will let you figure that out

343
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:55,000
yourselves.  If you did enough
research you could find out.

344
00:27:55,000 --> 00:28:00,000
That's not part of your assignment
for the class.

345
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:05,000
But some of them are actually really
rational-thinking scientists and

346
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:10,000
engineers behind them.
So there's a whole spectrum of

347
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:15,000
people interested in this.
So why am I concerned about it?

348
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:21,000
In fact, one of my good friends,
who is a very good scientist, really

349
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:26,000
thinks we should explore the idea of
fertilizing the Southern Oceans to

350
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:31,000
bring the whales back.
Because he thinks that the whales

351
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:35,000
are gone because the krill are gone,
the krill are gone because the

352
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:39,000
phytoplankton are gone and the
phytoplankton are gone because the

353
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:43,000
whales aren't there to recycle the
iron.  And we don't know any of that,

354
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:48,000
but that's the hypothesis.
He thinks the ecosystem needs to be

355
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:52,000
ìjumpstartedî by an iron
fertilization.

356
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:56,000
So just to give you an idea the way
people are starting to think about

357
00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:01,000
ecosystems and our ability
to manipulate them.

358
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:05,000
So why am I worried about this?
And why should you be worried?

359
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:10,000
Because you know now from taking
this class that it's not that simple,

360
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:15,000
that ecosystems are complex.
And you know that if you fertilize

361
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:20,000
with iron and you create a lot of
organic carbon,

362
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:25,000
phytoplankton, and some of that
settles, a lot of that settles down

363
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:30,000
to the deep ocean where there is no
productivity, if it's consumed and

364
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:35,000
digested by bacteria oxygen is going
to be consumed, right?

365
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:39,000
And respiration,
heterotrophic bacteria,

366
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:43,000
that's what you learned in the first
set of lectures,

367
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:47,000
oxygen will be consumed and CO2 will
be regenerated.

368
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:51,000
But if you have enough of this it
will actually,

369
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:55,000
the oxygen in the deep ocean waters
will decrease and can even go anoxic

370
00:29:55,000 --> 00:30:00,000
if you do it long enough.
And when you change --

371
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:04,000
That's the function of the system,
the oxygen concentration.  You

372
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:08,000
change the community structure of
the system and you'll have a

373
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:12,000
different assemblage of microbes
there than you had before.

374
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:17,000
And one of the things that could
happen, for example,

375
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:21,000
is that you would increase the
ammonia concentration by this

376
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:25,000
reminerialization,
you could stimulate nitrification

377
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:29,000
and denitrification,
which you learned about in my second

378
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:34,000
lecture, I think.
And you remember that a byproduct of

379
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:38,000
that is nitrous oxide.
And nitrous oxide is also a

380
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:42,000
greenhouse gas that is 300 times
more effective molecule per molecule

381
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:46,000
than CO2.  In terms of its
greenhouse capability,

382
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:50,000
in terms of its absorption of heat.
So you're doing this whole thing to

383
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:54,000
suck CO2 out of the atmosphere,
but if a side effect is creating

384
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:58,000
nitrous oxide,
the amounts of which are impossible

385
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:02,000
to predict at this point,
you could be worse off than you

386
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:06,000
started.
And none of these proposals takes

387
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:11,000
this downstream effect into account.
The other thing that can happen in

388
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:16,000
low oxygen waters is the stimulation
of methanogenic bacteria which

389
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:21,000
produce methane that is 22 times
more effective molecule per molecule

390
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:26,000
CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
So there are ecosystem consequences

391
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:31,000
to this.
You cannot just say I'm going to add

392
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:35,000
this and make carbon and that's the
end of it, because you make carbon

393
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:40,000
and things happen to that carbon.
The other thing that is overlooked

394
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:44,000
that you guys know about,
remember this diagram of global

395
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,000
ocean circulation?
If you fertilize the Southern Ocean

396
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:53,000
with iron and utilize the nitrogen
and phosphorus here,

397
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,000
when those waters upwell over here
along the equation that nitrogen and

398
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:02,000
phosphorus isn't in them.
Now, that nitrogen and phosphorus is

399
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:06,000
fueling the productivity of these
ecosystems upon which fisheries are

400
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:11,000
based.  People are fishing the fish
from those systems.

401
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:15,000
So those people should be able to
say to these people,

402
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:19,000
hey, you took my nitrogen and
phosphorus.  That has to be factored

403
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:24,000
into your balance sheet.
My loss of fish, my loss of income

404
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:28,000
from the fish needs to be factored
into your balance sheet for

405
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:33,000
your carbon credit.
And if you do that the profitability

406
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:39,000
is really marginal.
Finally, there are models from a

407
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:44,000
group at Princeton that show if you
do this in a sustained way that

408
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:50,000
after many, many years,
this is 1500 which is the extreme,

409
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:55,000
but even after 100 years you create,
this is latitude.  Here's the

410
00:32:55,000 --> 00:33:01,000
equator 40 degrees,
40 degrees south.

411
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:06,000
So this is a broad swath of the
ocean and this is depth,

412
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:11,000
OK?  So this shows a huge,
huge anoxic zone in the oceans that

413
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:16,000
would be causes by sustained
fertilization in this way.

414
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:22,000
Not surprising, you're making a lot
of organic carbon.

415
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:27,000
It's going to be consumed by
bacteria.  So that is all a story,

416
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:32,000
a scenario to get you thinking about
your future and your relationship

417
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:38,000
with the earth's ecosystems
in the future.

418
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:42,000
Because our relationship with these
systems is changing dramatically.

419
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:46,000
We are now in charge.  We've been
in charge for a while,

420
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:50,000
but we haven't taken the
responsibility of being in charge

421
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:54,000
for a while of these systems.
And your generation is going to be

422
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:59,000
making these kinds of decisions.
As we move forward and we experience

423
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:04,000
the aftermath of some of the
manipulations we've done in the past

424
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:09,000
like burning fossil fuels and
increasing CO2 in the atmosphere

425
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:13,000
there will be choices to make.
Do we just adapt to this global

426
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:18,000
warming or do we know enough about
how the earth works to try to

427
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:23,000
counteract it in ways like
fertilizing the oceans.

428
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:28,000
And then you'll have to decide are
the risks of fertilizing the oceans

429
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:33,000
much greater than the risks of
adapting to climate change?

430
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:38,000
And a new trend in thinking about
the earth is thinking about nature

431
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:43,000
and ecosystems as not simply as
something that we value because

432
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:49,000
they're part of our world and we
should set up reserves so that we

433
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:54,000
can enjoy them and see nature and so
generations in the future will know

434
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:59,000
what natural ecosystems look like,
but starting to think of ecosystems

435
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:05,000
as things that provide services for
humans and actually have a monetary

436
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:10,000
value that is not part of our
economy, it's not part of our

437
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:16,000
economic system but they provide
functions to our world for free.

438
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:20,000
And so as we destroy them we're
losing those functions.

439
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:25,000
And this is a very well known paper.
There's a journal called Ecological

440
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:29,000
Economics that tries to talk about
factoring in ecosystems

441
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:35,000
into our economy.
And this is a very well known paper

442
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:41,000
on the value of the world's
ecosystem services and natural

443
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:47,000
capital.  And course this is
impossible to do but you've got to

444
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:53,000
try.  So they evaluated the
ecosystem services as worth $33

445
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:59,000
trillion.  And this is just a brief
list of some of the services that

446
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:04,000
they analyze in this.
One that's pretty easy to wrap your

447
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:08,000
brain around is the pollination of
crops by insects.

448
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:13,000
We rely on insects to pollinate
crops.  They do it for free and we

449
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:18,000
rely on that.  And just this is
estimated to be worth $6 billion.

450
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:22,000
That if you had to hire somebody to
manually pollinate your crops if

451
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:27,000
there were no bees and all of the
things that are doing it,

452
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:32,000
it would cost $6 billion globally.
There is decomposition of waste,

453
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:38,000
recycling nutrients, dispersion of
seeds, control of pests,

454
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:43,000
purification of the air and water,
ecosystems to do this.  And this is

455
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:49,000
compared to the GNP of $18 trillion
per year, the global gross national

456
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:54,000
product.  So this is sort of a shift
in our thinking about how we think

457
00:36:54,000 --> 00:37:00,000
about ecosystems.  And
just in the last --

458
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:04,000
This slide was in one of your
handouts about,

459
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:08,000
I don't know, five lectures ago,
but I didn't get to it so I thought

460
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:13,000
I would bring it in now.
Just in the last, well, April 14th

461
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:17,000
was announced this Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment Report,

462
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:21,000
which was over a thousand scientists
worldwide assessing the state of the

463
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:26,000
earth's global ecosystems and from
the point of view of strengthening

464
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:30,000
capacity to manage ecosystem's
sustainability for

465
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:35,000
human well-being.
So the focus is on how do we manage

466
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:39,000
these things for ourselves and the
future generation?

467
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:43,000
And you can go to the website if
you want to get depressed.

468
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:47,000
Well, you can get depressed about
what we've done.

469
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:52,000
But you can be optimistic that
we're really facing up to this

470
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:56,000
challenge in a very systematic way.
But the bottom line is that

471
00:37:56,000 --> 00:38:00,000
two-thirds of the natural machinery
of the earth has already been

472
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:05,000
degraded by humans.
And water use is dramatic.

473
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:10,000
Major rivers are dry before they
reach the oceans.

474
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:15,000
We are mining groundwater basically.
We're taking water out of the

475
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:20,000
ground much faster than it's being
recharged.  One-quarter of all fish

476
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:25,000
stocks are already over-harvested.
I mean we're in a non-sustainable

477
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:30,000
mode.  I don't need to tell you.
You read the newspaper and you know

478
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:35,000
this, and so I'll skip over this.
Oh, just this last part I think is

479
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:39,000
the most important.
The argument is that more and more

480
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:43,000
people are going to be living in the
cities in the future,

481
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:47,000
so less and less in touch with
nature.  So nature is going to be

482
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:52,000
more and more of an abstraction to
us.  And people are really worried

483
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:56,000
about this because conservation of
natural spaces is not just a luxury.

484
00:38:56,000 --> 00:39:00,000
This is a dangerous illusion that
ignores our dependency

485
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:05,000
on these systems.
And we have to really strengthen

486
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:09,000
that understanding.
OK, so now I want to lead you,

487
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:14,000
this slide several students have
told me is the only thing they

488
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:18,000
remember from this class and my
other ecology class.

489
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:23,000
And that makes me very happy.
If this is the only thing you

490
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:27,000
remember that's great because this
is really the take-home message for

491
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:32,000
you and your generation.
And this is how we have changed our

492
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:36,000
relationship to the earth and this
is where we are right now.

493
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:41,000
So you learned in the first lecture
about the biosphere,

494
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:46,000
autotrophs producing organic carbon,
heterotrophs consuming organic

495
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:50,000
carbon and with a little bit of
input from the earth's crust,

496
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:55,000
nitrogen and phosphorus, and this
system running pretty well

497
00:39:55,000 --> 00:40:00,000
before humans.
And before the Industrial Revolution

498
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:04,000
societies fit into this system of
tight recycling taking a little bit

499
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:09,000
off of the autotrophic productivity
and putting a little bit of waste

500
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:14,000
into the system.
But then we had the Industrial

501
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:18,000
Revolution.  We've cut down massive
amounts of trees.

502
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:23,000
we've changed the very landscape of
the autotrophic system,

503
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:28,000
and we've dramatically increased the
waste stream.

504
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:32,000
And we're mining the lithosphere in
a huge way, elements,

505
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:36,000
mining for metals and things used in
manufacturing,

506
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:40,000
etc., which is,
of course, increasing this waste

507
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:45,000
stream.  So this is where we are now.
And we know that this is not

508
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:49,000
sustainable the way we're operating.
So this is your generation's

509
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:53,000
decision.  Are you going to go this
way or are you going to go that way?

510
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:57,000
Very simple.  You've got to point
your compass in the

511
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:02,000
right direction.
So this way just increases these

512
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:07,000
streams, the waste stream and the
erosion of the natural ecosystems

513
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:11,000
and the mining from the lithosphere.
This stream works toward recycling

514
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:16,000
within the societies that we've
already built,

515
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:21,000
restoring natural ecosystems so they
can do their functions properly for

516
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:26,000
cleaning air and water,
and leaving enough productivity for

517
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:31,000
the rest of the heterotrophs
on land.

518
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:35,000
You know we're not the only
heterotrophs.  There are all these

519
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:40,000
other species that rely on this
primary productivity,

520
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:45,000
the birds and, well, all the species.
So we need to leave some of that

521
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:50,000
for them so the ecosystems can
sustain themselves.

522
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:55,000
And so this is where we should be.
And we just need to find the will

523
00:41:55,000 --> 00:42:00,000
to get there.  So easily
said, not easily done.

524
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:04,000
And there's an organization called
The Natural Step.

525
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:08,000
I put this website,
which you might want to write down

526
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:12,000
because I don't think this was on
your slide, if you're interested you

527
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:16,000
can write it down,
that I think has a very,

528
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:20,000
very creative approach to working
with industry to try to direct

529
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:24,000
things in the right direction and
where they talk about the compass.

530
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:28,000
And they say there are basic system
conditions for sustainability that

531
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:33,000
if we don't maintain we will be
going in the wrong direction.

532
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:37,000
And it's just a total no-brainer.
It's very simple.  Substances from

533
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:41,000
the earth's crust must not
systematically increase in nature.

534
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:45,000
Obviously, that's not sustainable
if you do that and substances

535
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:49,000
produced by society must not
systematically increase in nature.

536
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:53,000
We cannot keep pouring waste into
nature.  The physical basis for the

537
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:57,000
productivity and diversity of nature,
i.e., the green part,

538
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:02,000
the autotrophic cycle cannot be
systematically deteriorated.

539
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:06,000
And then they add to this we must be
efficient enough to meet basic human

540
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:11,000
needs.  We have to work toward
efficiency which is working toward

541
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:16,000
tightening this recycling here.
And they've been very effective in

542
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:21,000
many countries in pointing
industries in the right direction.

543
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:25,000
Every time that they make a
decision about what metal to use in

544
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:30,000
a particular manufacturing process,
they look at how much of that metal

545
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:36,000
has already been mined.
Is there an alternative metal that

546
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:42,000
they could, etc.
They're constantly using at this

547
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:48,000
compass.  OK.  Obviously,
the compass is not pointed in the

548
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:54,000
right direction.
A no-brainer.  Building cars that

549
00:43:54,000 --> 00:44:00,000
use more fuel and get less miles per
gallon is not the right direction.

550
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:05,000
So some of these are very easy to
answer.  And I don't want to cast

551
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:10,000
dispersion on SUVs,
but in case you didn't recognize it

552
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:16,000
that's what that is.
I mean fuel efficiency is here,

553
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:21,000
we can have it if we want to, and we
need to work on that.

554
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:27,000
And finally, well, this isn't
finally.  This is second to finally.

555
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:32,000
I love this cartoon.
This is the [doctor Saturn?

556
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:36,000
or whatever looking at the earth
and diagnosing our planet at this

557
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:41,000
stage in its evolution.
And finally I'll leave you with

558
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:46,000
this image which is my favorite
image of the earth because it has no

559
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:50,000
national boundaries and it really
does remind us that it's a living

560
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:55,000
planet and that time is now.
I mean, I know this sounds

561
00:44:55,000 --> 00:45:00,000
overdramatic but it's not.
I mean we've changed this planet so

562
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:04,000
much in the last 200 years relative
to all the years before.

563
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:09,000
And the next 50 years, your time to
make a difference is absolutely

564
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:13,000
critical, so I hope you guys will go
off and save the planet for us.

565
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:16,000
Have fun and have a great summer.