1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,470 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:02,470 --> 00:00:03,880 Commons license. 3 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,920 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare continue to 4 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:10,570 offer high quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:10,570 --> 00:00:13,470 To make a donation or view additional materials from 6 00:00:13,470 --> 00:00:17,400 hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare at 7 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:18,650 ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:20,790 --> 00:00:24,290 Some content in this audio is not covered under a Creative 9 00:00:24,290 --> 00:00:25,775 Commons license. 10 00:00:25,775 --> 00:00:29,800 For more information, see the course materials on the MIT 11 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,020 OpenCourseWare website. 12 00:00:32,020 --> 00:00:33,660 PROFESSOR: Grabbing a bunch of index cards and scribbling 13 00:00:33,660 --> 00:00:34,090 things down. 14 00:00:34,090 --> 00:00:34,460 AUDIENCE: Yes. 15 00:00:34,460 --> 00:00:37,812 PROFESSOR: Pretty much how I get by. 16 00:00:37,812 --> 00:00:39,800 Another group? 17 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:41,788 AUDIENCE: So our group is [UNINTELLIGIBLE], 18 00:00:41,788 --> 00:00:44,770 [UNINTELLIGIBLE], and Jason. 19 00:00:44,770 --> 00:00:46,396 We don't have a rep [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 20 00:00:46,396 --> 00:00:47,860 But [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 21 00:00:47,860 --> 00:00:49,812 [LAUGHTER] 22 00:00:49,812 --> 00:00:51,920 We're doing like a real time, supernatural 23 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:53,430 horror/cooperative game. 24 00:00:53,430 --> 00:00:54,270 PROFESSOR: OK. 25 00:00:54,270 --> 00:00:56,745 Oh, like real time [UNINTELLIGIBLE] theme? 26 00:00:56,745 --> 00:00:57,190 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 27 00:00:57,190 --> 00:00:58,080 PROFESSOR: I'm excited. 28 00:00:58,080 --> 00:00:58,970 I'm excited. 29 00:00:58,970 --> 00:01:00,390 PROFESSOR: One, two, three, four. 30 00:01:00,390 --> 00:01:03,006 All right, who else? 31 00:01:03,006 --> 00:01:05,180 AUDIENCE: it's me, it's Tanya, Patrick, and 32 00:01:05,180 --> 00:01:06,916 Justin who are here. 33 00:01:06,916 --> 00:01:09,396 PROFESSOR: [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 34 00:01:09,396 --> 00:01:09,892 OK. 35 00:01:09,892 --> 00:01:11,380 You guys have kind of a [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 36 00:01:15,190 --> 00:01:18,470 AUDIENCE: And how do you describe this game? 37 00:01:18,470 --> 00:01:20,790 AUDIENCE: It's building a family tree game. 38 00:01:20,790 --> 00:01:22,217 AUDIENCE: Geneology path building. 39 00:01:22,217 --> 00:01:23,380 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 40 00:01:23,380 --> 00:01:24,812 It's a path building game involving family members. 41 00:01:24,812 --> 00:01:26,650 AUDIENCE: Consider it geneology path building. 42 00:01:26,650 --> 00:01:29,100 AUDIENCE: It's kind of like a Family Feud game. 43 00:01:29,100 --> 00:01:30,940 Except, it's a little bit stranger. 44 00:01:35,270 --> 00:01:38,555 PROFESSOR: So I think Jay and Mia. 45 00:01:38,555 --> 00:01:39,030 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 46 00:01:39,030 --> 00:01:40,455 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 47 00:01:40,455 --> 00:01:42,840 PROFESSOR: And Calvin and Jason, you've been 48 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:44,613 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] in that. 49 00:01:44,613 --> 00:01:45,016 AUDIENCE: Oh. 50 00:01:45,016 --> 00:01:45,580 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 51 00:01:45,580 --> 00:01:47,412 and things. 52 00:01:47,412 --> 00:01:49,806 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 53 00:01:49,806 --> 00:01:52,800 PROFESSOR: So right now we have a-- we don't have a 54 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:53,195 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 55 00:01:53,195 --> 00:01:57,090 The idea we have is pretty much you want to get a certain 56 00:01:57,090 --> 00:01:59,120 sets of cards. 57 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,838 And we get sets by drawing cards or trading with other 58 00:02:02,838 --> 00:02:04,220 people or-- 59 00:02:04,220 --> 00:02:06,950 but it's also you can take cards if you want, but if you 60 00:02:06,950 --> 00:02:09,342 get caught, then it's up to the other players whether you 61 00:02:09,342 --> 00:02:10,370 get punished or not. 62 00:02:10,370 --> 00:02:11,750 PROFESSOR: OK, if you get caught then-- 63 00:02:11,750 --> 00:02:12,734 OK. 64 00:02:12,734 --> 00:02:13,984 So [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 65 00:02:18,935 --> 00:02:19,724 That sounds good. 66 00:02:19,724 --> 00:02:22,194 So it sounds like we have four teams. 67 00:02:22,194 --> 00:02:23,444 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 68 00:02:27,220 --> 00:02:31,800 So today I'm planning on, for the most part, just going 69 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,860 through the lecture stuff that I had planned for today and 70 00:02:35,860 --> 00:02:38,260 for last Wednesday. 71 00:02:38,260 --> 00:02:42,610 And if there's any time left, we could finish up with 72 00:02:42,610 --> 00:02:43,860 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 73 00:02:45,650 --> 00:02:47,840 And that's what I'd like to do. 74 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,830 But if there's only like an hour left, then I think I'd 75 00:02:50,830 --> 00:02:54,015 probably rather you play one more game. 76 00:02:54,015 --> 00:02:57,540 As this is a useful exercise, but playing these games are 77 00:02:57,540 --> 00:03:02,770 just as useful and frankly a better design. 78 00:03:02,770 --> 00:03:04,470 All right. 79 00:03:04,470 --> 00:03:05,756 Let's see. 80 00:03:05,756 --> 00:03:08,510 So I think I'll start with Wednesday's stuff first, which 81 00:03:08,510 --> 00:03:10,220 is the last [COLERA] 82 00:03:10,220 --> 00:03:12,920 reading for the entire semester. 83 00:03:12,920 --> 00:03:15,720 I did, in fact, actually look a little bit into the weird 84 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:21,612 eskimo stuff from Monday, and one thing, I don't actually 85 00:03:21,612 --> 00:03:22,760 think he was speaking figuratively. 86 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:25,800 I think he was actually describing something that he 87 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:32,254 had done some anthropoligical research on-- this is a ritual 88 00:03:32,254 --> 00:03:36,615 that a very, very [UNINTELLIGIBLE], just a fine 89 00:03:36,615 --> 00:03:39,430 group of eskimos do. 90 00:03:39,430 --> 00:03:42,656 It reminds me a lot of the sort of recitations that you 91 00:03:42,656 --> 00:03:45,260 get that sometimes has a morbid quality, 92 00:03:45,260 --> 00:03:45,880 sometimes they don't. 93 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,270 But this reminds you of either historical events, or 94 00:03:49,270 --> 00:03:50,220 important things to do. 95 00:03:50,220 --> 00:03:52,770 Like the easiest one that I keep in my brain is 96 00:03:52,770 --> 00:03:54,970 righty-tighty, lefty-loosey. 97 00:03:54,970 --> 00:03:58,590 That teaches you something of how screws work. 98 00:03:58,590 --> 00:04:00,894 But then they're a little bit like ring around the rosy, 99 00:04:00,894 --> 00:04:01,870 with a pocket full of poseys, ashes, 100 00:04:01,870 --> 00:04:03,425 ashes, we all fall down. 101 00:04:03,425 --> 00:04:06,850 But it's actually a commemorative little poem 102 00:04:06,850 --> 00:04:11,138 about the black death. 103 00:04:11,138 --> 00:04:14,010 That's what that song is about. 104 00:04:14,010 --> 00:04:18,029 So you have these little things. 105 00:04:18,029 --> 00:04:20,920 That particular example that he was describing was more 106 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:25,070 about this recitation that you sort of remember the procedure 107 00:04:25,070 --> 00:04:28,465 in which things are supposed to be done. 108 00:04:28,465 --> 00:04:30,250 But they're [UNINTELLIGIBLE], they're sort of 109 00:04:30,250 --> 00:04:30,940 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 110 00:04:30,940 --> 00:04:34,754 reenactment about what you do in order to I guess 111 00:04:34,754 --> 00:04:36,185 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 112 00:04:36,185 --> 00:04:40,540 or something like that to basically perform 113 00:04:40,540 --> 00:04:43,682 taxodermy on an animal. 114 00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:50,070 One of those ways where a playful experience was pretty 115 00:04:50,070 --> 00:04:54,646 much it's been used as a learning tool. 116 00:04:54,646 --> 00:04:58,920 And that kind of gets back to something I was mentioning 117 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:00,460 much earlier in this course. 118 00:05:00,460 --> 00:05:04,600 In many ways, learning how to play a game is 119 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:06,730 literally very exotic. 120 00:05:06,730 --> 00:05:09,116 You can't figure out how to play the game unless you have 121 00:05:09,116 --> 00:05:10,880 figured out all the rules. 122 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:12,555 And if the rules happen to have some sort of correlation 123 00:05:12,555 --> 00:05:14,956 to something real world, you might end up learning 124 00:05:14,956 --> 00:05:16,100 something about that real world. 125 00:05:16,100 --> 00:05:18,860 Whether you transfer to back to actually something real 126 00:05:18,860 --> 00:05:24,690 world is kind of actually the topic of what Wednesday's 127 00:05:24,690 --> 00:05:27,855 reading about. 128 00:05:27,855 --> 00:05:28,370 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 129 00:05:28,370 --> 00:05:33,160 talks about mimicry and things being kind of taken over by 130 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,180 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 131 00:05:35,180 --> 00:05:37,360 Now he uses these grand, sweeping statements which I 132 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,580 think sound a lot more modest when they're in the original 133 00:05:40,580 --> 00:05:42,360 language, and what to translate [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 134 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:46,210 sound like you're saying, and this huge wave of competitive 135 00:05:46,210 --> 00:05:48,418 games took over witch doctors. 136 00:05:52,250 --> 00:05:56,980 But I think what he's referring to, and if we notice 137 00:05:56,980 --> 00:05:58,760 the readings for that chapter three and chapter eight. 138 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,936 So there's a whole bunch of stuff that's missing, and we 139 00:06:01,936 --> 00:06:05,040 kind of wanted to spare you from the bad translation. 140 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:13,010 But the idea is that there is a lot of stuff that basically 141 00:06:13,010 --> 00:06:17,820 mimicry, the old process of putting on masks, putting on 142 00:06:17,820 --> 00:06:22,680 costumes, and being someone else has great societal power. 143 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:27,110 This had great societal power. 144 00:06:27,110 --> 00:06:31,370 And this is more of an anthropological thing. 145 00:06:31,370 --> 00:06:34,420 But the idea being you have these people-- who are 146 00:06:34,420 --> 00:06:36,510 effectively leaders of groups-- 147 00:06:36,510 --> 00:06:38,470 shamans, witch doctors, fortune 148 00:06:38,470 --> 00:06:41,410 tellers, maybe just elders. 149 00:06:41,410 --> 00:06:44,530 And they would have costumes, they'd have masks that not 150 00:06:44,530 --> 00:06:51,600 only gave them station, what when I wear this robe I am now 151 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:54,450 in charge of this tribe, but also turned them 152 00:06:54,450 --> 00:06:57,760 into somebody else. 153 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:02,372 Now, if you look at ancient accounts of the Egyptian 154 00:07:02,372 --> 00:07:05,300 pharoahs, for instance, in order to actually give up 155 00:07:05,300 --> 00:07:08,270 their own name and then they take on a new name. 156 00:07:08,270 --> 00:07:09,596 And a lot of them actually just become Pharaoh in the 157 00:07:09,596 --> 00:07:15,530 same way that a lot of Roman emperors just become Caesar. 158 00:07:15,530 --> 00:07:18,000 You can think of Caesear as just being king. 159 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,952 So it becomes a title, but you also become a person. 160 00:07:21,952 --> 00:07:23,928 A lot of the-- 161 00:07:23,928 --> 00:07:24,916 I'm trying to remember-- 162 00:07:24,916 --> 00:07:31,820 Persian, I think, emperors become Darius or Cyrus. 163 00:07:31,820 --> 00:07:33,290 Kind of just one word. 164 00:07:33,290 --> 00:07:36,230 This is one name that was given to the king. 165 00:07:36,230 --> 00:07:39,180 That's who you become. 166 00:07:39,180 --> 00:07:45,990 And that kind of combined with aesthetic solemn rituals. 167 00:07:45,990 --> 00:07:48,683 A lot of these are not what you would recognize 168 00:07:48,683 --> 00:07:51,350 as games right now. 169 00:07:51,350 --> 00:07:55,250 But in many ways they sort of tap into the same sort of 170 00:07:55,250 --> 00:08:00,150 pleasures of sort of critical and losing control. 171 00:08:00,150 --> 00:08:04,120 Once in a while, you don't have to be sort of all 172 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,120 inhibited and obeying laws. 173 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,620 You can just cut loose. 174 00:08:08,620 --> 00:08:12,429 And in superstitious tribes, 175 00:08:12,429 --> 00:08:15,510 superstitition will be the excuse. 176 00:08:15,510 --> 00:08:19,460 But you don't actually necessarily need that reason. 177 00:08:19,460 --> 00:08:22,750 And I think one thing that [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 178 00:08:22,750 --> 00:08:25,790 sort of describes in chapter eight is how-- 179 00:08:25,790 --> 00:08:28,195 we kind of get that today too. 180 00:08:28,195 --> 00:08:33,260 He was describing stuff like identification, for instance, 181 00:08:33,260 --> 00:08:39,536 when somebody who could be you wins something for no 182 00:08:39,536 --> 00:08:42,917 particular good reason, against incredible odds. 183 00:08:42,917 --> 00:08:48,604 And is there some sort of mechanism for you to feel I am 184 00:08:48,604 --> 00:08:51,176 now happy partly for this person's success, therefore, 185 00:08:51,176 --> 00:08:53,740 I'm a winner. 186 00:08:53,740 --> 00:08:59,412 Then you get to have that experience of ecstasy. 187 00:08:59,412 --> 00:09:02,460 You get to that news. 188 00:09:02,460 --> 00:09:04,116 A couple of videos. 189 00:09:04,116 --> 00:09:10,113 Some of them it's tongue and cheek, but hopefully that 190 00:09:10,113 --> 00:09:11,363 you-- it will kind of illustrate my point as well. 191 00:09:27,430 --> 00:09:34,050 So was anyone here in Boston in 2004? 192 00:09:34,050 --> 00:09:36,500 You were in Boston in 2004? 193 00:09:36,500 --> 00:09:39,438 What happened in Boston in 2004? 194 00:09:39,438 --> 00:09:40,794 AUDIENCE: With the Red Sox? 195 00:09:40,794 --> 00:09:41,246 PROFESSOR: Yes. 196 00:09:41,246 --> 00:09:46,801 The Red Sox won after, what, 86 years of coming real close 197 00:09:46,801 --> 00:09:50,575 and never actually winning a World Series. 198 00:09:50,575 --> 00:09:55,950 And I'm going to-- 199 00:09:55,950 --> 00:10:00,850 This is a neat little video that I have. 200 00:10:00,850 --> 00:10:03,310 I just kind of then just use this as a back drop. 201 00:10:03,310 --> 00:10:05,906 I think this is right around Fenwick Hall. 202 00:10:05,906 --> 00:10:07,394 I'm not so sure it's [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 203 00:10:10,370 --> 00:10:13,662 Sorry, the wireless in this particular corner of the 204 00:10:13,662 --> 00:10:16,840 office can be bad. 205 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,750 This is-- actually let me skip a little bit. 206 00:10:34,450 --> 00:10:38,566 So for those of you who don't know the story, actually how 207 00:10:38,566 --> 00:10:41,920 many of you don't know what happened in 2004 around here? 208 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:42,790 AUDIENCE: Well I don't know exactly what 209 00:10:42,790 --> 00:10:44,040 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 210 00:10:47,020 --> 00:10:54,140 PROFESSOR: So basically what happened around here was the 211 00:10:54,140 --> 00:10:59,910 Red Sox were down 3, 0 against the Yankees. 212 00:10:59,910 --> 00:11:02,844 And managed to come back from them. 213 00:11:02,844 --> 00:11:05,778 And then they beat the Cardinals and they won the 214 00:11:05,778 --> 00:11:07,245 World Series. 215 00:11:07,245 --> 00:11:09,890 Now, this is, of course, after 86 years, again. 216 00:11:09,890 --> 00:11:13,717 I mentioned really people just not winning at all. 217 00:11:13,717 --> 00:11:14,700 But coming really close. 218 00:11:14,700 --> 00:11:16,500 Each time they get really, really close and then they'd 219 00:11:16,500 --> 00:11:20,364 magnificently flub it. 220 00:11:20,364 --> 00:11:22,300 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 221 00:11:22,300 --> 00:11:27,990 So this earlier video here is what Boston looked like when 222 00:11:27,990 --> 00:11:31,410 it was down 3, 0. 223 00:11:31,410 --> 00:11:32,660 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 224 00:11:45,990 --> 00:11:50,015 The funniest thing that every time the Red Sox actually won 225 00:11:50,015 --> 00:11:51,660 it was like an awakening. 226 00:11:51,660 --> 00:11:57,160 So they weren't at Fenway. 227 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:01,048 When all of these celebrations that-- can you see once the 228 00:12:01,048 --> 00:12:02,298 buffering stops. 229 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:13,150 All the celebration that's going on is occurring miles 230 00:12:13,150 --> 00:12:17,346 and miles, probably 100 miles away from where the game's 231 00:12:17,346 --> 00:12:21,242 actually happening with the Cardinals. 232 00:12:21,242 --> 00:12:23,780 And of course, everyone was watching it on TV, everyone's 233 00:12:23,780 --> 00:12:27,140 identifying with the Red Sox. 234 00:12:27,140 --> 00:12:30,971 And right now you are sort of seeing like, as far as I can 235 00:12:30,971 --> 00:12:33,306 tell probably the Northeastern students 236 00:12:33,306 --> 00:12:35,650 who were around Fenway. 237 00:12:35,650 --> 00:12:39,160 But in here, the vehicles driving by and 238 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,120 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 239 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:47,000 Everybody was listening on the radio, you can see the cars 240 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:47,560 driving by. 241 00:12:47,560 --> 00:12:48,649 Everybody knows immediately. 242 00:12:48,649 --> 00:12:51,144 Everyone in Boston immediately knew it 243 00:12:51,144 --> 00:12:52,142 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 244 00:12:52,142 --> 00:12:54,637 If they weren't watching the game, they would 245 00:12:54,637 --> 00:12:56,134 have heard it anyway. 246 00:12:56,134 --> 00:12:59,128 Because they have no affirmative claims. 247 00:12:59,128 --> 00:13:02,621 The only way that you would cheer the Red Sox is to say 248 00:13:02,621 --> 00:13:05,116 Mackie sucked, which is kind of sad actually. 249 00:13:09,110 --> 00:13:10,930 For those of you who weren't around, it was a really, 250 00:13:10,930 --> 00:13:12,680 really awesome night. 251 00:13:12,680 --> 00:13:14,680 There was, of course, a little bit of violence. 252 00:13:14,680 --> 00:13:18,110 Things got a little bit out-- a bunch of 253 00:13:18,110 --> 00:13:19,360 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 254 00:13:23,335 --> 00:13:27,480 But it wasn't like a huge riot or anything. 255 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,513 For the most part it was pretty much this. 256 00:13:29,513 --> 00:13:32,340 A lot of people with a lot of the hands in the air. 257 00:13:32,340 --> 00:13:34,781 No cars being turned over or anything like that. 258 00:13:34,781 --> 00:13:36,260 But it was being-- 259 00:13:36,260 --> 00:13:42,170 But these are the kind of aesthetic movements that 260 00:13:42,170 --> 00:13:42,950 [? Colera ?] 261 00:13:42,950 --> 00:13:45,898 talks about in his write-up. 262 00:13:45,898 --> 00:13:46,390 Yup? 263 00:13:46,390 --> 00:13:49,342 AUDIENCE: I have a video on my phone in Barcelona right after 264 00:13:49,342 --> 00:13:53,278 they won the semi-finals over the summer. 265 00:13:53,278 --> 00:13:57,214 And I had a video of the streets at 11 PM. 266 00:13:57,214 --> 00:14:00,166 I could show you [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 267 00:14:00,166 --> 00:14:02,134 I have a video of the streets at 12:30, 268 00:14:02,134 --> 00:14:03,610 so half past midnight. 269 00:14:03,610 --> 00:14:05,578 And it's the exact same scene. 270 00:14:05,578 --> 00:14:08,530 And the exact same people are still in the street with their 271 00:14:08,530 --> 00:14:10,990 shirts off, still twirling their shirts around. 272 00:14:10,990 --> 00:14:13,942 PROFESSOR: It was probably more rowdy I would imagine. 273 00:14:13,942 --> 00:14:15,480 AUDIENCE: Oh, it was [UNINTELLIGIBLE] rowdy 274 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:16,905 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 275 00:14:16,905 --> 00:14:19,445 This is America, they don't know how to be rowdy in 276 00:14:19,445 --> 00:14:19,710 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 277 00:14:19,710 --> 00:14:24,050 PROFESSOR: I think for every three people there was a cop. 278 00:14:24,050 --> 00:14:25,990 You don't see that in the video. 279 00:14:25,990 --> 00:14:29,368 But there were a lot of cops out there that night just to 280 00:14:29,368 --> 00:14:31,000 make sure that [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 281 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,568 But I think Barcelona also would have been partying. 282 00:14:34,568 --> 00:14:36,050 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 283 00:14:36,050 --> 00:14:38,890 PROFESSOR: So the idea-- 284 00:14:38,890 --> 00:14:41,780 of course, the idea of a sports team is something which 285 00:14:41,780 --> 00:14:44,460 you identify with because associated with the city that 286 00:14:44,460 --> 00:14:45,890 you live in. 287 00:14:45,890 --> 00:14:46,900 They win. 288 00:14:46,900 --> 00:14:49,465 I didn't do anything, but because I because I'm a 289 00:14:49,465 --> 00:14:51,020 supporter of sports team, I get to 290 00:14:51,020 --> 00:14:55,240 identify myself with them. 291 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,320 And [? Colera ?] 292 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:01,180 makes the assertion that this is important because if you 293 00:15:01,180 --> 00:15:09,760 look at the forces of human chance, of there, which I 294 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,620 think gives the various athletes the opportunities, as 295 00:15:13,620 --> 00:15:17,180 well as the physical ability, to actually perform well. 296 00:15:17,180 --> 00:15:19,830 The likelihood of any of the people actually celebrating, 297 00:15:19,830 --> 00:15:22,860 actually being able to perform that same feat 298 00:15:22,860 --> 00:15:24,266 is extremely low. 299 00:15:24,266 --> 00:15:26,935 In fact, the likelihood of even someone who has the 300 00:15:26,935 --> 00:15:30,530 ability and the opportunities of actually winning is pretty 301 00:15:30,530 --> 00:15:33,610 much random and the odds are against you. 302 00:15:33,610 --> 00:15:40,162 But because you identify so strongly with a group of 303 00:15:40,162 --> 00:15:43,890 people who can win, you are allowed to sort of enjoy that 304 00:15:43,890 --> 00:15:46,900 victory, even though you weren't the one who actually 305 00:15:46,900 --> 00:15:49,830 got that victory. 306 00:15:49,830 --> 00:15:53,240 And it gets stronger actually for some games-- 307 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,930 well for some kind of games where you actually did have 308 00:15:55,930 --> 00:15:58,686 something to do with the victory, for 309 00:15:58,686 --> 00:16:01,060 instance, talent shows. 310 00:16:01,060 --> 00:16:04,430 Especially the modern talent shows. 311 00:16:04,430 --> 00:16:05,700 Maybe you've already seen this. 312 00:16:05,700 --> 00:16:27,552 [BEGIN VIDEO PLAYBACK] 313 00:16:27,552 --> 00:16:29,795 PROFESSOR: So [UNINTELLIGIBLE] the Outward Bound are on about 314 00:16:29,795 --> 00:16:30,940 next week's show. 315 00:16:30,940 --> 00:16:32,240 They're going to-- 316 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,160 remember that when you look at things like Britain's Got 317 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,800 Talent, like American Idol, all of these things are 318 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:40,210 popularity contests. 319 00:16:40,210 --> 00:16:42,360 You have judges, but the judges don't actually 320 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,470 determine very much who's actually going to win. 321 00:16:45,470 --> 00:16:47,720 The only people who actually determine who's going to win 322 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,410 are popular vote. 323 00:16:49,410 --> 00:16:53,590 And that vote is happening through short messages 324 00:16:53,590 --> 00:16:56,616 basically, which people are being charged for. 325 00:16:56,616 --> 00:17:03,875 The basic idea is that because you might have had voted for 326 00:17:03,875 --> 00:17:07,020 someone, you now identify with that person who might win. 327 00:17:07,020 --> 00:17:10,450 Whether that person wins or not is effectively random for 328 00:17:10,450 --> 00:17:11,089 other purposes. 329 00:17:11,089 --> 00:17:16,130 Now sure, that some of them have talent, but later on-- 330 00:17:16,130 --> 00:17:19,176 but when you look at who actually tends to progress in 331 00:17:19,176 --> 00:17:21,990 these competitions, I think some of the results are 332 00:17:21,990 --> 00:17:22,928 really, really random. 333 00:17:22,928 --> 00:17:26,690 Like you have some people who move onto the next stage 334 00:17:26,690 --> 00:17:29,470 because they are just strange. 335 00:17:29,470 --> 00:17:32,155 And you just want to see them next week because they may be 336 00:17:32,155 --> 00:17:36,150 entertaining, not necessarily because they're talented. 337 00:17:36,150 --> 00:17:42,220 So this is [UNINTELLIGIBLE] example. 338 00:17:42,220 --> 00:17:43,196 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 339 00:17:43,196 --> 00:17:43,684 [WATCHING VIDEO] 340 00:17:43,684 --> 00:17:46,612 AUDIENCE: Yes, but their [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 341 00:17:46,612 --> 00:17:48,564 AUDIENCE: Dancing. 342 00:17:48,564 --> 00:17:49,070 AUDIENCE: That's an obvious one. 343 00:17:49,070 --> 00:17:50,510 Singing for everyone. 344 00:17:50,510 --> 00:17:51,760 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 345 00:17:58,770 --> 00:18:00,020 AUDIENCE: [INTERPOSING VOICES] 346 00:18:01,985 --> 00:18:04,272 AUDIENCE: Getting married. 347 00:18:04,272 --> 00:18:06,702 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 348 00:18:06,702 --> 00:18:08,160 AUDIENCE: Cypress. 349 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:09,618 AUDIENCE: Yeah, what do they do? 350 00:18:12,534 --> 00:18:14,478 PROFESSOR: I should have looked up what their 351 00:18:14,478 --> 00:18:16,844 particular is, but they can all do different things. 352 00:18:30,578 --> 00:18:35,902 So the first one is short message vote in. 353 00:18:35,902 --> 00:18:37,152 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 354 00:18:51,220 --> 00:18:53,456 AUDIENCE: Slick-backed hair. 355 00:18:53,456 --> 00:18:55,901 PROFESSOR: I notice the camera moves at this point. 356 00:18:55,901 --> 00:18:58,835 [LAUGHTER] 357 00:18:58,835 --> 00:18:59,813 AUDIENCE: They just like the looks of their 358 00:18:59,813 --> 00:19:02,747 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 359 00:19:02,747 --> 00:19:03,997 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 360 00:19:14,764 --> 00:19:16,014 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 361 00:19:22,572 --> 00:19:24,860 AUDIENCE: They're obviously [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 362 00:19:24,860 --> 00:19:27,770 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 363 00:19:27,770 --> 00:19:31,080 AUDIENCE: It looked like a dance thing. 364 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:35,860 And if you look at the other celebration's like the Susan 365 00:19:35,860 --> 00:19:39,780 Boyle video, where I think it got pretty viral. 366 00:19:39,780 --> 00:19:44,050 So I'm assuming a lot of you have seen it. 367 00:19:44,050 --> 00:19:48,915 It's one of those things where even if you don't necessarily 368 00:19:48,915 --> 00:19:50,576 that you're rooting for a person. 369 00:19:50,576 --> 00:19:53,160 It's so easy for you to be convinced that you're actually 370 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:58,240 rooting for this person as soon as you have a reason to. 371 00:19:58,240 --> 00:19:58,770 So-- 372 00:19:58,770 --> 00:20:00,650 AUDIENCE: It's like oh wow, that guy is from Texas. 373 00:20:00,650 --> 00:20:01,590 PROFESSOR: Hey, [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 374 00:20:01,590 --> 00:20:02,580 It's good for you. 375 00:20:02,580 --> 00:20:05,100 You don't really need that much of a reason to identify 376 00:20:05,100 --> 00:20:08,020 with somebody. 377 00:20:08,020 --> 00:20:10,605 And that's where you get sort of still see some of that 378 00:20:10,605 --> 00:20:15,310 power of the vertigo, basically. 379 00:20:15,310 --> 00:20:18,150 It's not the vertigo of actually playing the game, the 380 00:20:18,150 --> 00:20:21,356 vertigo of watching a game, but it's still part of the 381 00:20:21,356 --> 00:20:24,330 entire game experience. 382 00:20:24,330 --> 00:20:27,080 Britain's Got Talent, American Idol, everything like that 383 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,670 wouldn't have the power if it didn't have the hundreds and 384 00:20:29,670 --> 00:20:37,260 hundreds of screaming fans voting in and having their 385 00:20:37,260 --> 00:20:39,450 faces changing on camera, and applauding and 386 00:20:39,450 --> 00:20:41,922 screaming their heads off. 387 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:50,340 And of course, that's the identification part of it. 388 00:20:50,340 --> 00:20:56,190 But even when you're talking about sort of just basic 389 00:20:56,190 --> 00:20:59,142 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 390 00:20:59,142 --> 00:21:03,580 Here's a shrine festival in Japan. 391 00:21:03,580 --> 00:21:06,410 And basically what they're doing is just getting started. 392 00:21:06,410 --> 00:21:09,550 Everyone's gotten assembled. 393 00:21:09,550 --> 00:21:11,880 All of the folks here who are wearing basically the same 394 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:16,516 colored outfit are basically from the same town. 395 00:21:16,516 --> 00:21:17,766 Including that logo. 396 00:21:20,190 --> 00:21:23,430 And what you've got is basically like a little house 397 00:21:23,430 --> 00:21:25,959 for a deity. 398 00:21:25,959 --> 00:21:30,310 They're both carried on the shoulders. 399 00:21:30,310 --> 00:21:34,536 And those three up there look really precarious, but I think 400 00:21:34,536 --> 00:21:36,732 they're having a good time. 401 00:21:36,732 --> 00:21:39,172 That's a completely different talent [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 402 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:46,870 But you know, this is not unlike what you'd see in a 403 00:21:46,870 --> 00:21:48,126 sporting event. 404 00:21:48,126 --> 00:21:49,620 It's kind of getting [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 405 00:21:49,620 --> 00:21:51,612 AUDIENCE: Isn't the town versus town like competition? 406 00:21:51,612 --> 00:21:53,604 PROFESSOR: It's not really so much a competition. 407 00:21:53,604 --> 00:21:54,766 But I think there's a certain amount 408 00:21:54,766 --> 00:21:57,104 that you have to represent. 409 00:21:57,104 --> 00:21:59,574 AUDIENCE: That show existed in France, it's called 410 00:21:59,574 --> 00:22:02,372 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE], and they literally get towns in 411 00:22:02,372 --> 00:22:04,514 the countryside and have them compete in various 412 00:22:04,514 --> 00:22:05,008 competitions. 413 00:22:05,008 --> 00:22:06,984 So like each town, for example, designates the 414 00:22:06,984 --> 00:22:09,454 strongest person to have an arm wrestling match. 415 00:22:09,454 --> 00:22:10,936 PROFESSOR: Sort of like champions. 416 00:22:10,936 --> 00:22:11,924 You send your champions. 417 00:22:11,924 --> 00:22:12,912 AUDIENCE: You send your champions. 418 00:22:12,912 --> 00:22:14,888 Then you have like a horseback thing. 419 00:22:14,888 --> 00:22:19,334 And I think like other weird events. 420 00:22:19,334 --> 00:22:21,662 And it's pretty popular. 421 00:22:21,662 --> 00:22:23,606 1,000 people/person town versus 422 00:22:23,606 --> 00:22:24,578 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 423 00:22:24,578 --> 00:22:27,008 PROFESSOR: I think you get that in the Scottish Highland 424 00:22:27,008 --> 00:22:28,810 games as well. 425 00:22:28,810 --> 00:22:31,170 Basically it's sending people to throw giant pieces of 426 00:22:31,170 --> 00:22:34,386 lumber as far as they can. 427 00:22:34,386 --> 00:22:35,700 But [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] competition. 428 00:22:35,700 --> 00:22:37,382 This is not [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 429 00:22:37,382 --> 00:22:38,795 This is a lot closer to kind of the 430 00:22:38,795 --> 00:22:40,679 earlier kind of situation. 431 00:22:40,679 --> 00:22:43,590 Because they're not vying to win anything. 432 00:22:43,590 --> 00:22:48,040 They are really just trying to all get into it together. 433 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,870 So if you think of it as what kind of thing. 434 00:22:51,870 --> 00:22:54,690 The aim of the game is don't drop the damn-- 435 00:22:54,690 --> 00:22:57,150 [LAUGHTER] 436 00:22:57,150 --> 00:22:58,080 It's quite simple. 437 00:22:58,080 --> 00:22:59,100 Get thrown-- 438 00:22:59,100 --> 00:23:02,010 in fact, it's actually a fair amount of effort because I 439 00:23:02,010 --> 00:23:04,190 think they walk a couple of miles. 440 00:23:04,190 --> 00:23:07,490 I'm not quite sure what the traditions are on where it 441 00:23:07,490 --> 00:23:08,816 starts and where it ends. 442 00:23:08,816 --> 00:23:11,770 But it's like a huge street parade. 443 00:23:11,770 --> 00:23:15,290 And the whole idea is let's get everybody involved. 444 00:23:15,290 --> 00:23:18,190 The people are packed really close with each other, so it's 445 00:23:18,190 --> 00:23:21,275 not like you can actually move one foot without colliding 446 00:23:21,275 --> 00:23:24,130 into somebody else unless you're all moving in unison. 447 00:23:24,130 --> 00:23:27,430 And can you keep in sync. 448 00:23:27,430 --> 00:23:31,720 And all the shouting, all the whistles, and all the chance 449 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,240 actually just helped that entire process move along. 450 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:41,096 It continues today, not just in sports, not just in 451 00:23:41,096 --> 00:23:43,570 televised shows, but in street fairs and 452 00:23:43,570 --> 00:23:44,542 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 453 00:23:44,542 --> 00:23:45,028 that's great. 454 00:23:45,028 --> 00:23:48,430 And those folks really look like they're having fun. 455 00:23:48,430 --> 00:23:58,200 So that's kind of what we were [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 456 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:07,700 And the version of this, the version of what [? Colera ?] 457 00:24:07,700 --> 00:24:14,107 describes as since your ability to succeed is so 458 00:24:14,107 --> 00:24:16,860 random, especially if you think of it outside of the 459 00:24:16,860 --> 00:24:20,130 game context, but more in the silo context-- 460 00:24:20,130 --> 00:24:22,920 your ability to be a great athlete, your ability to be a 461 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,120 great politician, your ability to make a lot of money, just 462 00:24:25,120 --> 00:24:29,290 to succeed in life is so random. 463 00:24:29,290 --> 00:24:33,080 But people kind of don't necessarily want to 464 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,360 acknowledge that it's random because you have rules, 465 00:24:35,360 --> 00:24:39,710 because you have sort of rules set in to promote merit to 466 00:24:39,710 --> 00:24:41,530 sort of equalize systems. 467 00:24:41,530 --> 00:24:45,270 Is this the equilaterian [UNINTELLIGIBLE], which I 468 00:24:45,270 --> 00:24:46,750 think actually he meant. 469 00:24:46,750 --> 00:24:50,990 I think the original word was egalitarian. 470 00:24:50,990 --> 00:24:53,430 While there are a lot of processes trying to stabilize, 471 00:24:53,430 --> 00:24:55,900 in the end you can't really ignore the 472 00:24:55,900 --> 00:24:57,376 forces of one's birth. 473 00:24:57,376 --> 00:24:59,356 At least that's the way he sees it. 474 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:07,248 When you get competitions that are effectively just 475 00:25:07,248 --> 00:25:13,610 completely random, which means anybody can win, people really 476 00:25:13,610 --> 00:25:20,570 do understand and sort of ascribe to that kind of power. 477 00:25:20,570 --> 00:25:22,990 They accept. 478 00:25:22,990 --> 00:25:27,710 The likelihood of me winning the lottery is about as good 479 00:25:27,710 --> 00:25:31,550 as the likelihood that I'm going to succeed in life. 480 00:25:31,550 --> 00:25:36,386 A lot of it is based on who was I born to, and which year, 481 00:25:36,386 --> 00:25:39,830 and which region are we born in? 482 00:25:39,830 --> 00:25:43,602 What's happening in the world as I-- at least that's the way 483 00:25:43,602 --> 00:25:44,750 of how he puts it. 484 00:25:44,750 --> 00:25:47,210 So he has a really hilarious video, by the way, 485 00:25:47,210 --> 00:25:48,460 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 486 00:25:51,146 --> 00:25:53,310 This is an ad. 487 00:25:53,310 --> 00:25:54,520 Let me get-- 488 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:55,852 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 489 00:25:55,852 --> 00:25:57,820 PROFESSOR: I guess so. 490 00:25:57,820 --> 00:25:59,070 Sorry about the-- 491 00:26:02,740 --> 00:26:05,692 It looks damn pretty. 492 00:26:05,692 --> 00:26:06,184 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 493 00:26:06,184 --> 00:26:06,676 [BEGIN VIDEO PLAYBACK] 494 00:26:06,676 --> 00:26:09,628 -Mos of us when we buy a lottery scratch-off ticket, 495 00:26:09,628 --> 00:26:12,088 we're thinking this is my day, right? 496 00:26:12,088 --> 00:26:14,260 OK, if that's the case, then a 19-year-old Mills college 497 00:26:14,260 --> 00:26:16,426 student is super lucky tonight. 498 00:26:16,426 --> 00:26:19,624 -Louis Jay became an instant millionaire with the scratch 499 00:26:19,624 --> 00:26:24,310 of a ticket, and he told Rob Robert all about it today. 500 00:26:24,310 --> 00:26:26,755 -It was on his birthday when Towson University student, 501 00:26:26,755 --> 00:26:30,450 Louis Jay, decided to buy a scratch-off lottery ticket. 502 00:26:30,450 --> 00:26:34,113 -I actually won $20 on the scratch-off the prior week. 503 00:26:34,113 --> 00:26:35,917 -Louis Jay went to this giant [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 504 00:26:35,917 --> 00:26:39,620 Mills and used the $20 he won on a scratch-off ticket and 505 00:26:39,620 --> 00:26:41,090 bought another one. 506 00:26:41,090 --> 00:26:44,115 As he began scratching off the numbers, Louis couldn't 507 00:26:44,115 --> 00:26:45,450 believe his eyes. 508 00:26:45,450 --> 00:26:47,282 -I'm at the second to the last line and it's 509 00:26:47,282 --> 00:26:47,950 not going too well. 510 00:26:47,950 --> 00:26:48,760 And I was starting to see six. 511 00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:50,130 I was like oh, it matched up. 512 00:26:50,130 --> 00:26:51,440 All right, I won $30 or something, why not. 513 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:52,366 I saw a million. 514 00:26:52,366 --> 00:26:54,681 I started double-checking, triple-checking everything. 515 00:26:54,681 --> 00:26:56,690 Make sure all the numbers matches and everything. 516 00:26:56,690 --> 00:26:57,355 I was like oh, my God. 517 00:26:57,355 --> 00:26:59,760 -And when it came time to scratch off the last number, 518 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:01,095 his mother told him-- 519 00:27:01,095 --> 00:27:02,867 -He was scratching on every one. 520 00:27:02,867 --> 00:27:07,108 And when it was the next to the last one I said, don't 521 00:27:07,108 --> 00:27:10,352 scratch it from right to left, do it from left to right. 522 00:27:10,352 --> 00:27:13,860 [LAUGHTER] 523 00:27:13,860 --> 00:27:14,970 -And there it was. 524 00:27:14,970 --> 00:27:18,950 Louis had won himself one million dollars. 525 00:27:18,950 --> 00:27:22,869 -This little dollar sign bag right here that I won on, I'm 526 00:27:22,869 --> 00:27:25,005 actually got number six for my lucky number right here. 527 00:27:25,005 --> 00:27:27,800 And down here it matches the six with the prize for a 528 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:28,550 million dollars. 529 00:27:28,550 --> 00:27:32,040 -He's a hardworking young man, and he has fun and he likes 530 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:32,410 the lottery. 531 00:27:32,410 --> 00:27:35,436 He buys a ticket on his 19th birthday, and lo and behold, 532 00:27:35,436 --> 00:27:36,870 he wins a million dollars. 533 00:27:36,870 --> 00:27:38,790 I don't know if he told you the other part of the story. 534 00:27:38,790 --> 00:27:41,193 He bought a ticket on his 18th birthday, his first one, and 535 00:27:41,193 --> 00:27:42,810 he won $100. 536 00:27:42,810 --> 00:27:46,220 So I don't know what's going on his 20th birthday. 537 00:27:46,220 --> 00:27:49,615 Everyone in the family about Louis's good fortune. 538 00:27:49,615 --> 00:27:51,070 -I'm happy for him. 539 00:27:51,070 --> 00:27:53,495 AUDIENCE: Isn't it a story that they're trying to tell 540 00:27:53,495 --> 00:27:54,745 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 541 00:27:57,620 --> 00:28:00,580 -And yes, he does have plans for the money. 542 00:28:00,580 --> 00:28:02,673 -I'm putting some money away for my brother and sister to 543 00:28:02,673 --> 00:28:02,995 finish schooling. 544 00:28:02,995 --> 00:28:05,920 They go to [UNINTELLIGIBLE] school. 545 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,300 I'm going to put some money away for myself, help my 546 00:28:08,300 --> 00:28:10,633 parents pay off some bills so we could all-- 547 00:28:10,633 --> 00:28:13,130 We always said what we'd do if we won the lottery, we'd go to 548 00:28:13,130 --> 00:28:15,502 England, visit my father's relatives and stuff. 549 00:28:15,502 --> 00:28:16,966 We're going to go there next summer hopefully. 550 00:28:16,966 --> 00:28:19,650 Just going to do a lot of things we always said what if 551 00:28:19,650 --> 00:28:21,846 we won the lottery, and now we did. 552 00:28:21,846 --> 00:28:22,822 -Rob Robert, Linda. 553 00:28:22,822 --> 00:28:24,774 BBAL TV, 11 News. 554 00:28:24,774 --> 00:28:25,262 [END VIDEO PLAYBACK] 555 00:28:25,262 --> 00:28:27,535 PROFESSOR: So this is just a story that 556 00:28:27,535 --> 00:28:28,410 they're trying to tell. 557 00:28:28,410 --> 00:28:30,772 It's like this is hard-- 558 00:28:30,772 --> 00:28:34,258 he's a hard-working young man, as if that had anything to do 559 00:28:34,258 --> 00:28:37,680 with his [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 560 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,668 AUDIENCE: He deserved it. 561 00:28:40,668 --> 00:28:41,166 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 562 00:28:41,166 --> 00:28:43,158 [LAUGHTER] 563 00:28:43,158 --> 00:28:46,400 PROFESSOR: Behind that is that well, and and if you're a 564 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,560 hard-working person as well, and if you bought a lottery 565 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:50,460 ticket, you could win. 566 00:28:50,460 --> 00:28:51,622 That's the story that they're trying to tell. 567 00:28:51,622 --> 00:28:53,977 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 568 00:28:53,977 --> 00:28:55,390 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 569 00:28:55,390 --> 00:28:57,740 is like perfect time for opportunity. 570 00:28:57,740 --> 00:29:01,492 Like with the lotto idea, what if a really, really 571 00:29:01,492 --> 00:29:04,220 unlikeable, despicable character wins the lottery, 572 00:29:04,220 --> 00:29:06,220 what's the news reports going to be like? 573 00:29:06,220 --> 00:29:09,540 She never worked a day in her life. 574 00:29:09,540 --> 00:29:12,840 PROFESSOR: But I think you can still turn that in the way of 575 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:17,150 this is not a person whose odds in life 576 00:29:17,150 --> 00:29:20,138 were already in favor. 577 00:29:20,138 --> 00:29:22,892 And everyone can sort of identify with that. 578 00:29:22,892 --> 00:29:27,060 It's like yeah, things aren't quite working my way, but you 579 00:29:27,060 --> 00:29:28,664 could be a lottery winner tomorrow. 580 00:29:28,664 --> 00:29:31,555 That's the story that they are telling. 581 00:29:31,555 --> 00:29:35,810 And of course, the idea being what the lottery director was 582 00:29:35,810 --> 00:29:39,095 saying, yeah, remember, he didn't just buy one ticket. 583 00:29:39,095 --> 00:29:40,740 He bought one ticket the year before, he 584 00:29:40,740 --> 00:29:42,350 might buy another ticket. 585 00:29:42,350 --> 00:29:46,700 They're trying to encourage you to buy more tickets. 586 00:29:46,700 --> 00:29:47,340 That's the story. 587 00:29:47,340 --> 00:29:51,680 The story is buy more tickets, which oddly enough is actually 588 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,320 the only way to increase your chances 589 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,338 of winning the lottery. 590 00:29:55,338 --> 00:29:57,773 Buy more tickets. 591 00:29:57,773 --> 00:30:04,104 Pity that doesn't work for like past deals and things. 592 00:30:04,104 --> 00:30:06,539 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 593 00:30:06,539 --> 00:30:08,974 PROFESSOR: And reapply for more [UNINTELLIGIBLE] classes 594 00:30:08,974 --> 00:30:09,950 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 595 00:30:09,950 --> 00:30:16,330 But the basic idea that they're trying to because the 596 00:30:16,330 --> 00:30:20,400 forces of life are so random, these kinds of like totally 597 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:27,220 random, high stakes games have incredible power. 598 00:30:27,220 --> 00:30:30,148 And not just because of the possibility of winning. 599 00:30:30,148 --> 00:30:33,076 But because it resonates very, very strongly with the idea 600 00:30:33,076 --> 00:30:36,004 that you could win. 601 00:30:36,004 --> 00:30:39,420 And if you identify with somebody else, even better 602 00:30:39,420 --> 00:30:40,396 because then you don't even have to win. 603 00:30:40,396 --> 00:30:41,860 That person could win. 604 00:30:41,860 --> 00:30:47,165 And in fact, increases the range of different winners 605 00:30:47,165 --> 00:30:48,730 that you can identify with. 606 00:30:48,730 --> 00:30:51,712 Help people sort of get that thrill of winning without 607 00:30:51,712 --> 00:30:54,420 necessarily even having competed. 608 00:30:54,420 --> 00:30:58,640 So that's kind of the power that we have in chance. 609 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,722 I haven't actually talked about, well so how do we 610 00:31:00,722 --> 00:31:03,525 actually use chance in games yet, which is what 611 00:31:03,525 --> 00:31:04,775 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 612 00:31:07,350 --> 00:31:11,624 But I think in their book, they describe-- 613 00:31:11,624 --> 00:31:14,486 the reason why I like challenges for you to design 614 00:31:14,486 --> 00:31:18,060 is that they're very concrete about well if you're stuck and 615 00:31:18,060 --> 00:31:20,810 you don't know what to do with a game, have you considered 616 00:31:20,810 --> 00:31:22,346 bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam. 617 00:31:22,346 --> 00:31:24,811 They're very, very systematic about that. 618 00:31:24,811 --> 00:31:26,783 You know, have you considered doing options? 619 00:31:26,783 --> 00:31:28,262 Have you thought-- 620 00:31:28,262 --> 00:31:30,234 That's not chance. 621 00:31:30,234 --> 00:31:31,713 That's the second chapter. 622 00:31:31,713 --> 00:31:36,643 The first chapter was have you considered using dice, using 623 00:31:36,643 --> 00:31:38,122 cards, using spinners. 624 00:31:38,122 --> 00:31:41,540 I don't remember what other randomizing systems they had. 625 00:31:41,540 --> 00:31:47,700 Computer or random number generated [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 626 00:31:47,700 --> 00:31:54,490 Are you using it to equalize different skill levels, or are 627 00:31:54,490 --> 00:31:56,620 you just trying to make it so that there's sometimes 628 00:31:56,620 --> 00:32:00,520 predictability, that sometimes solveability in the system. 629 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,280 There are all these different ways that you can use 630 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:03,330 randomness. 631 00:32:03,330 --> 00:32:06,360 But don't forget how powerful randomness is. 632 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,437 It's one of those things where you normally assume that you 633 00:32:09,437 --> 00:32:11,333 don't actually [UNINTELLIGIBLE] in the game. 634 00:32:11,333 --> 00:32:12,240 And you don't want him to [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 635 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,117 First of all, as the designer, randomness makes it hard for 636 00:32:15,117 --> 00:32:17,967 you to predict what's going to happen, and as a result, it 637 00:32:17,967 --> 00:32:20,110 becomes difficult to design. 638 00:32:20,110 --> 00:32:26,463 But the power of the this I could be a winner for reasons 639 00:32:26,463 --> 00:32:29,730 that are entirely out of my control is actually more 640 00:32:29,730 --> 00:32:35,610 powerful than a lot of folks what will naturally assume 641 00:32:35,610 --> 00:32:38,550 right off the bat. 642 00:32:38,550 --> 00:32:42,316 So I'm not going to go too much into the various options 643 00:32:42,316 --> 00:32:46,785 that Brenda and Ian described as a challenge because you can 644 00:32:46,785 --> 00:32:47,210 look those up. 645 00:32:47,210 --> 00:32:50,061 But do look those up, especially if I'm having 646 00:32:50,061 --> 00:32:51,055 difficulty in your game. 647 00:32:51,055 --> 00:32:52,770 If you're having difficulty, oh this game is too 648 00:32:52,770 --> 00:32:55,410 predictable, and you can see that there 649 00:32:55,410 --> 00:32:56,990 is the optimal strategy. 650 00:32:56,990 --> 00:33:01,364 Well then you can think about maybe writing those might be a 651 00:33:01,364 --> 00:33:03,125 good [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 652 00:33:03,125 --> 00:33:07,490 Or maybe I want to be able to play this with people who have 653 00:33:07,490 --> 00:33:09,724 never played this game before I had met them, and still have 654 00:33:09,724 --> 00:33:10,964 a fighting chance. 655 00:33:10,964 --> 00:33:15,428 That's another good opportunity to win 656 00:33:15,428 --> 00:33:15,924 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 657 00:33:15,924 --> 00:33:18,280 But know what problem you're trying to solve before you're 658 00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:19,396 throwing something away. 659 00:33:19,396 --> 00:33:23,020 Because sometimes you can have a lot of fun with games that 660 00:33:23,020 --> 00:33:25,616 are effectively just like fun butteries. 661 00:33:25,616 --> 00:33:27,035 You know, oh, I draw a card. 662 00:33:27,035 --> 00:33:28,875 Munchkin is kind of like this actually. 663 00:33:28,875 --> 00:33:29,390 You draw a card. 664 00:33:29,390 --> 00:33:31,190 Oh, look at, funny. 665 00:33:31,190 --> 00:33:32,330 And you read the text. 666 00:33:32,330 --> 00:33:33,520 That was silly. 667 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,030 And now they've added a Twitter version of Munchkin 668 00:33:36,030 --> 00:33:38,930 where every hour you introduce a new rule. 669 00:33:38,930 --> 00:33:42,876 And it's like the player whose name starts with the letter M 670 00:33:42,876 --> 00:33:44,860 gets double the hit point for something. 671 00:33:44,860 --> 00:33:46,844 But totally random. 672 00:33:46,844 --> 00:33:49,750 And that can be kind of fun, but that's 673 00:33:49,750 --> 00:33:51,840 really short-lived fun. 674 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,110 That's one of the things where once you look through all of 675 00:33:54,110 --> 00:33:56,450 the cards-- the game's pretty much done for you. 676 00:33:56,450 --> 00:33:58,202 Even if you haven't even finished playing the game, the 677 00:33:58,202 --> 00:34:00,815 game might end for yourself. 678 00:34:00,815 --> 00:34:03,980 So try not to go down that track. 679 00:34:03,980 --> 00:34:06,830 There was a group last year that did a game where pretty 680 00:34:06,830 --> 00:34:13,300 much you just drew silly things to do out of a hat. 681 00:34:13,300 --> 00:34:16,339 And, yeah, it was fun until everyone got through the hat, 682 00:34:16,339 --> 00:34:19,664 and then once everyone knew pretty much the range of the 683 00:34:19,664 --> 00:34:21,564 little silly things, that's it, game was over. 684 00:34:21,564 --> 00:34:23,949 There was no replay. 685 00:34:23,949 --> 00:34:27,085 So [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 686 00:34:27,085 --> 00:34:28,000 "The [? Side Note ?] 687 00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,110 About Replayability," that's actually a really excellent 688 00:34:30,110 --> 00:34:33,910 essay on I think gamasutra about how replayability isn't 689 00:34:33,910 --> 00:34:35,476 actually a well-defined word. 690 00:34:35,476 --> 00:34:37,936 Nobody really knows what that word means, but 691 00:34:37,936 --> 00:34:38,920 everyone uses it. 692 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,380 So if you're interested, check it out. 693 00:34:41,380 --> 00:34:43,594 I haven't actually had a chance to form a real 694 00:34:43,594 --> 00:34:44,844 opinion on it yet. 695 00:34:49,900 --> 00:34:56,210 So by the way, a lot of the roots of the kinds of 696 00:34:56,210 --> 00:35:03,580 randomness things that we use, like dice and cards, have some 697 00:35:03,580 --> 00:35:06,070 sort of root in fortune telling, which connects it 698 00:35:06,070 --> 00:35:07,312 back to kind of the ritualistic 699 00:35:07,312 --> 00:35:10,480 aspects of games again. 700 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,200 The idea of you can tell whether you're going to be a 701 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:17,000 success in life by your success in this game. 702 00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,430 And the game might be draw a card from this deck 703 00:35:20,430 --> 00:35:23,923 and hope it's good. 704 00:35:23,923 --> 00:35:27,715 Which parallels what a lot of people think like it. 705 00:35:27,715 --> 00:35:30,460 If I roll the dice, and if I'm lucky, things are 706 00:35:30,460 --> 00:35:33,170 going to work out. 707 00:35:33,170 --> 00:35:40,350 But there's a couple of interesting things about how 708 00:35:40,350 --> 00:35:43,542 strategy and skills start to work with things of 709 00:35:43,542 --> 00:35:45,700 randomness. 710 00:35:45,700 --> 00:35:48,920 For instance, there is one argument that [? Colera ?] 711 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:54,900 makes that the reason why you get things like chance and 712 00:35:54,900 --> 00:35:59,986 skill games taking over mimicry and vertigo 713 00:35:59,986 --> 00:36:03,835 experiences is because we started developing systems of 714 00:36:03,835 --> 00:36:04,540 enumeration. 715 00:36:04,540 --> 00:36:07,240 Started being able to count, we started being able to rank 716 00:36:07,240 --> 00:36:09,500 things to tell whether something was actually better 717 00:36:09,500 --> 00:36:14,740 than other, and some sort of empirical numerical way. 718 00:36:14,740 --> 00:36:19,620 So if you think about it from that sense, then actually when 719 00:36:19,620 --> 00:36:22,460 you look at skill and when you look at chance, they're 720 00:36:22,460 --> 00:36:26,790 actually kind of on both on the same side. 721 00:36:26,790 --> 00:36:29,065 They're sort of dealing with number 722 00:36:29,065 --> 00:36:33,358 systems one way or another. 723 00:36:33,358 --> 00:36:36,250 If you had a system that has a lot of chance, any number 724 00:36:36,250 --> 00:36:37,250 could come up. 725 00:36:37,250 --> 00:36:38,415 Any card could come up. 726 00:36:38,415 --> 00:36:42,810 Any dice roll having some set of probability. 727 00:36:42,810 --> 00:36:47,775 What skill is dealing with what could happen, having a 728 00:36:47,775 --> 00:36:49,760 plan, having a strategy. 729 00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:53,380 Maybe that element of chance isn't a random die roll. 730 00:36:53,380 --> 00:36:56,410 Maybe a person that you've never met before that you're 731 00:36:56,410 --> 00:36:59,390 playing against, and you don't know how good they are, they 732 00:36:59,390 --> 00:37:00,821 don't know what the strategies are, they don't 733 00:37:00,821 --> 00:37:01,768 know how they play. 734 00:37:01,768 --> 00:37:05,980 They're effectively a die roll, and your skill is kind 735 00:37:05,980 --> 00:37:10,450 of or the element of skill in the game are all about how do 736 00:37:10,450 --> 00:37:12,130 you deal with all the 737 00:37:12,130 --> 00:37:14,530 probabilities that have happened. 738 00:37:14,530 --> 00:37:20,450 So one of the things that [? Colera ?] talked about is a 739 00:37:20,450 --> 00:37:24,639 lot of the competitive games kind things actually come up 740 00:37:24,639 --> 00:37:28,020 from tests-- tests of physical skill, tests of mental skill. 741 00:37:28,020 --> 00:37:30,645 Tests the ability to be able to take an administrative 742 00:37:30,645 --> 00:37:32,416 position and in society. 743 00:37:32,416 --> 00:37:34,350 That sort of thing. 744 00:37:34,350 --> 00:37:37,115 But your ability to actually do well on those tests also 745 00:37:37,115 --> 00:37:40,880 kind of depends on your luck of having the ability in the 746 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:41,660 first place. 747 00:37:41,660 --> 00:37:44,630 It's like did you get the right of education? 748 00:37:44,630 --> 00:37:46,430 Did you study the right questions? 749 00:37:46,430 --> 00:37:50,400 Do you happen to have really good genes so that you can 750 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:50,720 jump really high? 751 00:37:50,720 --> 00:37:53,700 That sort of thing. 752 00:37:53,700 --> 00:38:03,205 So the idea of whether it is actually just luck, if you 753 00:38:03,205 --> 00:38:06,225 would talk about a modern game, you can talk about skill 754 00:38:06,225 --> 00:38:08,000 of someone being able to play chess. 755 00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,610 Or you can talk about the luck of somebody having had the 756 00:38:10,610 --> 00:38:13,220 chance to play chess many, many, many times before 757 00:38:13,220 --> 00:38:15,586 they're playing this one particular game. 758 00:38:15,586 --> 00:38:18,370 Because not everybody in the world has that option. 759 00:38:18,370 --> 00:38:20,686 And that's kind of the case that [? Colera ?] 760 00:38:20,686 --> 00:38:22,120 is trying to make. 761 00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:27,796 When you're bringing a new person to a game, they haven't 762 00:38:27,796 --> 00:38:31,050 had the luck of playing your particular game. 763 00:38:31,050 --> 00:38:33,740 I'm going to say the good fortune of playing your 764 00:38:33,740 --> 00:38:37,910 particular game, whereas you have had that. 765 00:38:37,910 --> 00:38:42,140 So if you wanted to think of it as that, as well they're 766 00:38:42,140 --> 00:38:47,410 bad luck, now how do we use rules, either rules of chance 767 00:38:47,410 --> 00:38:51,020 or rules of skill to be able to give them a fighting 768 00:38:51,020 --> 00:38:53,280 chance, a fighting edge. 769 00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,300 Probably more rules of chance. 770 00:38:56,300 --> 00:39:01,610 So a there's a couple of different things. 771 00:39:01,610 --> 00:39:07,434 One thing that I do want to bring up is you 772 00:39:07,434 --> 00:39:08,426 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] information 773 00:39:08,426 --> 00:39:09,676 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 774 00:39:13,882 --> 00:39:15,370 Sorry. 775 00:39:15,370 --> 00:39:16,858 I could probably just draw it. 776 00:39:16,858 --> 00:39:19,834 But I just want to make sure I get it right. 777 00:39:22,810 --> 00:39:24,060 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 778 00:39:33,722 --> 00:39:35,828 AUDIENCE: Can we also [UNINTELLIGIBLE] shift it over 779 00:39:35,828 --> 00:39:36,270 to the big screen? 780 00:39:36,270 --> 00:39:40,010 PROFESSOR: It's really very [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 781 00:39:40,010 --> 00:39:43,384 So it's incredibly blurry-- 782 00:39:43,384 --> 00:39:44,348 OK, all right. 783 00:39:44,348 --> 00:39:47,690 So this is the basic idea. 784 00:39:47,690 --> 00:39:50,925 Claude Shannon, back in the '60s, I believe-- 785 00:39:50,925 --> 00:39:53,700 I think [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE], 786 00:39:53,700 --> 00:39:58,290 basically came up with a model of how communication works. 787 00:39:58,290 --> 00:40:01,930 How information gets from a sender to a receiver. 788 00:40:06,030 --> 00:40:08,716 How does this have anything to do with games? 789 00:40:08,716 --> 00:40:10,114 I will get to that quickly. 790 00:40:10,114 --> 00:40:14,310 But let me just talk about models first. 791 00:40:14,310 --> 00:40:17,805 So the sender had some sort of like message, right? 792 00:40:20,852 --> 00:40:25,170 And they're going to send it end of this 793 00:40:25,170 --> 00:40:26,910 conversation I believe-- 794 00:40:26,910 --> 00:40:27,904 yeah. 795 00:40:27,904 --> 00:40:29,395 This is transmission. 796 00:40:29,395 --> 00:40:32,874 I'm going to shorten it and say X-mission. 797 00:40:41,328 --> 00:40:43,380 So a sender has a message. 798 00:40:43,380 --> 00:40:45,085 They want to set up-- 799 00:40:45,085 --> 00:40:48,334 they want to translate it, and then it needs to be received 800 00:40:48,334 --> 00:40:50,270 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 801 00:40:50,270 --> 00:40:52,690 by the receiver. 802 00:40:52,690 --> 00:40:56,360 In between the two, there is some sort of channel. 803 00:40:56,360 --> 00:41:01,156 So if you think of this as I got a computer and my message 804 00:41:01,156 --> 00:41:01,970 is an email. 805 00:41:01,970 --> 00:41:03,922 I'm going to transmit it through the internet. 806 00:41:03,922 --> 00:41:06,850 And then it's going to be received by some sort of other 807 00:41:06,850 --> 00:41:11,242 mail server and then it's going to the other. 808 00:41:11,242 --> 00:41:17,098 This is the important part of this model is that this is 809 00:41:17,098 --> 00:41:20,782 where noise gets in the channel. 810 00:41:23,490 --> 00:41:27,744 The reason why this model is useful for thinking about 811 00:41:27,744 --> 00:41:30,670 games is you can actually think of the 812 00:41:30,670 --> 00:41:32,980 sender as the game. 813 00:41:32,980 --> 00:41:34,680 This this game space. 814 00:41:40,630 --> 00:41:44,530 And the message could be something, it could be 815 00:41:44,530 --> 00:41:49,665 valuable information about the current state of the game in 816 00:41:49,665 --> 00:41:50,915 order for you to make a good decision. 817 00:41:53,622 --> 00:41:57,410 In poker, it will be, well everybody's hands. 818 00:41:57,410 --> 00:41:59,830 That's the message. 819 00:41:59,830 --> 00:42:01,345 That's valuable information. 820 00:42:01,345 --> 00:42:04,321 If you knew what everybody had in your hand, and if you knew 821 00:42:04,321 --> 00:42:08,070 everything in the deck in the order in which the deck is 822 00:42:08,070 --> 00:42:11,520 shuffled, you will be able to make a great decision about 823 00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:16,220 whether to raise your bid on the floor. 824 00:42:19,130 --> 00:42:23,000 And so you have rules that sort of encode what that 825 00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:27,225 message is going to be, and you have rules that-- 826 00:42:27,225 --> 00:42:31,135 you have strategies to help you figure out what to do with 827 00:42:31,135 --> 00:42:35,300 that, with the receiver kind of becomes and you think of it 828 00:42:35,300 --> 00:42:37,260 as [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 829 00:42:37,260 --> 00:42:38,730 as a player's position, actually. 830 00:42:41,670 --> 00:42:43,874 Or the player's strategy if you would think about it over 831 00:42:43,874 --> 00:42:45,124 a long-term strategy. 832 00:42:48,510 --> 00:42:49,850 The trick is noise. 833 00:42:49,850 --> 00:42:52,390 And noise is actually something that you get to 834 00:42:52,390 --> 00:42:54,590 control [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 835 00:42:54,590 --> 00:42:55,410 What is hidden? 836 00:42:55,410 --> 00:42:57,880 What is obfiscated? 837 00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:01,934 What can be deliberately introduced to confuse you 838 00:43:01,934 --> 00:43:04,294 about what the game state actually is? 839 00:43:07,630 --> 00:43:12,042 Noise can be random, or noise can be just plain old you 840 00:43:12,042 --> 00:43:13,540 don't know. 841 00:43:13,540 --> 00:43:17,370 Just deleting information out of the [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 842 00:43:17,370 --> 00:43:22,380 So for instance, you guys know the rules of Texas Bulldog? 843 00:43:22,380 --> 00:43:26,235 There is a set of cards in the middle called the river. 844 00:43:26,235 --> 00:43:28,640 I could be wrong, so if you really know the rules 845 00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,570 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 846 00:43:30,570 --> 00:43:34,793 And these cards are dealt pretty early in the game. 847 00:43:34,793 --> 00:43:38,174 They're not dealt right at the beginning, but the-- 848 00:43:38,174 --> 00:43:41,555 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] at the beginning? 849 00:43:41,555 --> 00:43:43,970 AUDIENCE: Not all at once [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 850 00:43:43,970 --> 00:43:44,936 AUDIENCE: The first three. 851 00:43:44,936 --> 00:43:46,868 AUDIENCE: The flop, yeah. 852 00:43:46,868 --> 00:43:47,860 And then [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 853 00:43:47,860 --> 00:43:49,620 PROFESSOR: Oh, the flop and the river, right. 854 00:43:49,620 --> 00:43:51,090 Which is the one [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]? 855 00:43:51,090 --> 00:43:51,875 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 856 00:43:51,875 --> 00:43:52,925 PROFESSOR: The flop is data? 857 00:43:52,925 --> 00:43:54,175 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 858 00:43:57,760 --> 00:43:59,720 AUDIENCE: Everyone gets dealt the two cards, and then you 859 00:43:59,720 --> 00:44:02,950 turn the flop over, which [INTERPOSING VOICES]. 860 00:44:02,950 --> 00:44:04,070 And then the river is the [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 861 00:44:04,070 --> 00:44:05,310 PROFESSOR: The river's the big one. 862 00:44:05,310 --> 00:44:07,625 AUDIENCE: And betting zero, yeah. 863 00:44:07,625 --> 00:44:10,155 AUDIENCE: Well no, technically when you deal you put one card 864 00:44:10,155 --> 00:44:12,576 face down then you put the flop [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 865 00:44:12,576 --> 00:44:13,995 AUDIENCE: That part doesn't have anything to do 866 00:44:13,995 --> 00:44:14,468 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 867 00:44:14,468 --> 00:44:15,890 AUDIENCE: Yeah, but I don't know what-- 868 00:44:15,890 --> 00:44:17,961 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 869 00:44:17,961 --> 00:44:20,300 But the cards would get dealt out. 870 00:44:20,300 --> 00:44:25,162 It's pretty much an unknown. 871 00:44:25,162 --> 00:44:26,540 It is random. 872 00:44:26,540 --> 00:44:29,700 But on and above this, if you just put five cards in 873 00:44:29,700 --> 00:44:32,770 whatever side and then just dealt them out. 874 00:44:32,770 --> 00:44:34,430 It's a fixed quantity. 875 00:44:34,430 --> 00:44:37,880 But you still don't know what the heck it is. 876 00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,135 Someone else could have picked those cards and still don't 877 00:44:40,135 --> 00:44:41,154 know what it is. 878 00:44:41,154 --> 00:44:44,450 So they're effectively a random thing. 879 00:44:44,450 --> 00:44:45,450 They're noise. 880 00:44:45,450 --> 00:44:47,694 They're a bit of information we don't know. 881 00:44:47,694 --> 00:44:50,930 And in Texas Hold'em, a bit of information that everybody 882 00:44:50,930 --> 00:44:53,405 does know, so that's great. 883 00:44:53,405 --> 00:44:56,622 The information is kind of equally shared among everybody 884 00:44:56,622 --> 00:44:57,860 except for the one card. 885 00:44:57,860 --> 00:44:59,110 They'd be fine. 886 00:45:01,100 --> 00:45:03,360 So-- 887 00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:07,800 --when you think about how you can even things out for the 888 00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:12,883 players, or how you can make the challenge a little bit 889 00:45:12,883 --> 00:45:17,090 higher for decent players, you can think about, well how much 890 00:45:17,090 --> 00:45:19,422 information am I currently giving them about what 891 00:45:19,422 --> 00:45:22,000 a game state is? 892 00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:25,595 And maybe I can, I'll just [UNINTELLIGIBLE] them. 893 00:45:25,595 --> 00:45:28,073 Not necessarily lie, just hide. 894 00:45:28,073 --> 00:45:30,911 Just deny them information that is necessarily 895 00:45:30,911 --> 00:45:32,330 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 896 00:45:32,330 --> 00:45:35,250 It's also a good way to sort of think of well maybe if 897 00:45:35,250 --> 00:45:38,300 you're a little bit behind and you need a little help, then 898 00:45:38,300 --> 00:45:40,370 what are you going to do to give them a fighting 899 00:45:40,370 --> 00:45:41,348 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] channel. 900 00:45:41,348 --> 00:45:44,771 Let them have the next card that's coming up. 901 00:45:44,771 --> 00:45:46,727 Because we're talking about card games here. 902 00:45:46,727 --> 00:45:50,150 Let them re-roll the next die roll. 903 00:45:50,150 --> 00:45:51,400 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 904 00:45:55,690 --> 00:46:00,130 This model, about like thinking what sort of 905 00:46:00,130 --> 00:46:03,465 information are you giving your player can also sort of 906 00:46:03,465 --> 00:46:06,030 be useful in thinking whether they're giving too much 907 00:46:06,030 --> 00:46:08,376 information strictly from a decision-making point of view. 908 00:46:08,376 --> 00:46:11,170 It's like I'm throwing all this game state information, 909 00:46:11,170 --> 00:46:16,980 but really, all the player needs to know is half of that 910 00:46:16,980 --> 00:46:19,820 in order to make a good decision. 911 00:46:19,820 --> 00:46:21,943 You might actually want to consider 912 00:46:21,943 --> 00:46:24,841 reducing that somehow. 913 00:46:24,841 --> 00:46:27,739 Let me think of an example. 914 00:46:27,739 --> 00:46:31,844 I think Settlers of Catan that should be a pretty good 915 00:46:31,844 --> 00:46:35,040 example of that. 916 00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:35,940 You can see the entire board. 917 00:46:35,940 --> 00:46:40,100 Everyone can see the entire board at any given time. 918 00:46:40,100 --> 00:46:43,520 And everyone's got cards in their hands. 919 00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:45,630 You don't know what other people have in their cards. 920 00:46:45,630 --> 00:46:48,570 But for the most part, when you're trying to make a 921 00:46:48,570 --> 00:46:52,170 decision about what to do with your cards, you're really just 922 00:46:52,170 --> 00:46:55,586 concerned about your cards. 923 00:46:55,586 --> 00:46:58,514 As time goes on, you pretty much know what other people 924 00:46:58,514 --> 00:47:00,880 have in their hand if you've been paying attention, because 925 00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,900 people are picking up resources fairly openly. 926 00:47:06,620 --> 00:47:08,940 But you don't really care. 927 00:47:08,940 --> 00:47:11,665 And that's one nice thing about Settlers is that they're 928 00:47:11,665 --> 00:47:13,442 hiding this information from you, even though it is 929 00:47:13,442 --> 00:47:14,575 information that need to be hidden. 930 00:47:14,575 --> 00:47:17,970 Because in order to make a good decision in that game, 931 00:47:17,970 --> 00:47:19,920 you do not need to know that information. 932 00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:23,640 So they're introducting noise, they're deliberately hiding 933 00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:27,620 information from you so that you can just focus on the two 934 00:47:27,620 --> 00:47:29,837 or three decisions that are actually worth 935 00:47:29,837 --> 00:47:31,864 making on your turn. 936 00:47:31,864 --> 00:47:35,036 And that's one reason why Settlers games actually go 937 00:47:35,036 --> 00:47:38,208 pretty fast because people aren't paralyzed by too much 938 00:47:38,208 --> 00:47:40,650 information. 939 00:47:40,650 --> 00:47:41,970 If your game's getting too long. 940 00:47:41,970 --> 00:47:45,190 The game's supposed to be a half an hour and it's taking 941 00:47:45,190 --> 00:47:47,690 an hour long, think about the information that you're giving 942 00:47:47,690 --> 00:47:48,660 your player. 943 00:47:48,660 --> 00:47:51,270 All of it might be relevant to the game state, but not all of 944 00:47:51,270 --> 00:47:54,001 it might be relevant to what the players need to know right 945 00:47:54,001 --> 00:47:58,098 now in order to make their next move. 946 00:47:58,098 --> 00:48:02,110 And if you find a way to control that, sometimes just a 947 00:48:02,110 --> 00:48:04,690 clever color coding. 948 00:48:04,690 --> 00:48:07,650 Making your card in such a way that it's really, really 949 00:48:07,650 --> 00:48:10,023 obvious that there's a certain part of the card that you need 950 00:48:10,023 --> 00:48:13,290 to look at at certain times, and you kind of ignore it 951 00:48:13,290 --> 00:48:16,965 outside on a [UNINTELLIGIBLE] call other times, and that 952 00:48:16,965 --> 00:48:18,680 might help. 953 00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:24,110 But often what I find is in a lot of games like 954 00:48:24,110 --> 00:48:27,695 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] card games, for instance, board games, 955 00:48:27,695 --> 00:48:32,580 they would use a lot of icons to describe what the value of 956 00:48:32,580 --> 00:48:34,830 something is, or what kind of effect it has. 957 00:48:34,830 --> 00:48:36,870 And the reason why they use icons instead of using words 958 00:48:36,870 --> 00:48:39,270 is because you don't have translate icons. 959 00:48:39,270 --> 00:48:42,487 And they want their games to sell in Germany, in Spain, in 960 00:48:42,487 --> 00:48:48,500 England, and US, and Greece, and Italy, and so if you made 961 00:48:48,500 --> 00:48:51,843 cards, you couldn't use those same cards in every one of of 962 00:48:51,843 --> 00:48:52,660 those countries, so you use icons. 963 00:48:52,660 --> 00:48:55,190 The only problem is that now you have to learn what every 964 00:48:55,190 --> 00:48:56,854 one of those icons mean. 965 00:48:56,854 --> 00:48:59,480 If it's just a stack of coins, oh 5 coins means 5? 966 00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:01,345 OK, all right, I can probably figure that out. 967 00:49:01,345 --> 00:49:02,250 That's fine. 968 00:49:02,250 --> 00:49:05,928 But this is a picture of a hammer, what does a hammer do? 969 00:49:05,928 --> 00:49:07,650 I'll have to check in the reference manual, which 970 00:49:07,650 --> 00:49:08,900 happens to be in six different languages. 971 00:49:11,780 --> 00:49:15,448 And that's one of the barriers that a lot of folks have to 972 00:49:15,448 --> 00:49:16,412 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 973 00:49:16,412 --> 00:49:18,178 in card games and board games. 974 00:49:18,178 --> 00:49:20,260 It's not necessarily that the games are all that 975 00:49:20,260 --> 00:49:20,758 complicated. 976 00:49:20,758 --> 00:49:22,999 It's just that you have to actually have translation that 977 00:49:22,999 --> 00:49:24,021 has to be done because they're not really 978 00:49:24,021 --> 00:49:25,271 built for one language. 979 00:49:30,220 --> 00:49:36,196 So I probably have more to say about information, but I'm 980 00:49:36,196 --> 00:49:38,686 going to save it till next class. 981 00:49:38,686 --> 00:49:39,936 Any questions so far? 982 00:49:43,666 --> 00:49:45,907 Everything that I'm sort of directing at you right now are 983 00:49:45,907 --> 00:49:48,646 pretty much just different ways to look at the game 984 00:49:48,646 --> 00:49:49,642 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 985 00:49:49,642 --> 00:49:53,840 It's a card game, but try to see it from different ways. 986 00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:57,740 Not just how do I get this one game mechanic to work. 987 00:49:57,740 --> 00:50:00,220 But what are people going to be getting out of this game. 988 00:50:00,220 --> 00:50:01,950 When they're going to be drawing this big card, how are 989 00:50:01,950 --> 00:50:03,450 they going to be feeling? 990 00:50:03,450 --> 00:50:05,290 Are they going to be getting excited? 991 00:50:05,290 --> 00:50:07,600 Apprehensive? 992 00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:10,845 Are they going to be counting on the next card to win them 993 00:50:10,845 --> 00:50:12,545 the game, or is this just going to be giving them 994 00:50:12,545 --> 00:50:15,613 options, and do they know what options they have? 995 00:50:19,064 --> 00:50:42,728 So I'm just going to do a complete 996 00:50:42,728 --> 00:50:44,207 transition at this point. 997 00:50:44,207 --> 00:50:45,686 So new topic. 998 00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,110 One thing I want to talk about, which is not actually 999 00:50:55,110 --> 00:50:57,400 covered in any of the readings is the body 1000 00:50:57,400 --> 00:50:58,720 motion think plate. 1001 00:50:58,720 --> 00:51:00,760 I think it's probably used as, sort of-- 1002 00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,732 Jason and I use this story quite a bit. 1003 00:51:03,732 --> 00:51:06,806 We haven't really designed it all that well. 1004 00:51:06,806 --> 00:51:13,480 But if you think of the definition of what a good game 1005 00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:14,750 could be, [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1006 00:51:14,750 --> 00:51:18,240 offers, a good game is a series of interesting choices. 1007 00:51:18,240 --> 00:51:21,240 Our answer is all interesting decisions. 1008 00:51:21,240 --> 00:51:26,640 So what's an interesting decision? 1009 00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:30,560 One argument is that an interesting decision is one 1010 00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:35,325 where you're using mechanics to affect the game state. 1011 00:51:35,325 --> 00:51:40,050 And you're going to get some information, you're going to 1012 00:51:40,050 --> 00:51:44,240 use that mechanic and effect the game state. 1013 00:51:44,240 --> 00:51:46,900 The game state, the game's going to respond in some way. 1014 00:51:46,900 --> 00:51:50,260 And how that decision you make corresponds to the result that 1015 00:51:50,260 --> 00:51:54,120 you get back from the game state as could be interesting. 1016 00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:56,270 If there's no correspondence at all, if it's completely 1017 00:51:56,270 --> 00:52:02,236 random or, even worse, completely predictable, than 1018 00:52:02,236 --> 00:52:05,475 these are not interesting options that you've got. 1019 00:52:05,475 --> 00:52:06,670 And [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1020 00:52:06,670 --> 00:52:08,450 huh. 1021 00:52:08,450 --> 00:52:12,759 That result logically made sense, but I didn't expect 1022 00:52:12,759 --> 00:52:14,737 that it was going to do it, or that turned out 1023 00:52:14,737 --> 00:52:16,116 better than I expected. 1024 00:52:16,116 --> 00:52:17,366 Now it becomes really interesting. 1025 00:52:19,855 --> 00:52:23,580 And if it's just a-- 1026 00:52:23,580 --> 00:52:24,165 it could be anything. 1027 00:52:24,165 --> 00:52:24,950 It could be awesome. 1028 00:52:24,950 --> 00:52:26,950 I could win this game with this next-- 1029 00:52:26,950 --> 00:52:29,340 oh, look I won. 1030 00:52:29,340 --> 00:52:30,590 That's not interesting either. 1031 00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:37,270 So if that's an interesting decision, [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1032 00:52:37,270 --> 00:52:42,360 calls it a meaningful decision, then the converse 1033 00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,150 will be a meaningless decision. 1034 00:52:44,150 --> 00:52:48,785 So like a game like what I just described. 1035 00:52:48,785 --> 00:52:51,530 A decision where making a choice doesn't actually affect 1036 00:52:51,530 --> 00:52:52,400 your outcome. 1037 00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:53,350 Because [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1038 00:52:53,350 --> 00:52:57,028 makes card flip, or you had to do the card flip anyway. 1039 00:52:57,028 --> 00:52:58,240 You can't choose. 1040 00:52:58,240 --> 00:53:02,250 Then that's not a meaningful decision. 1041 00:53:02,250 --> 00:53:05,000 Or you make a decision and have no change in the game 1042 00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:06,431 state at all. 1043 00:53:06,431 --> 00:53:08,340 That's not interesting either. 1044 00:53:08,340 --> 00:53:16,630 So what you want in your game is something where you've got 1045 00:53:16,630 --> 00:53:20,190 a system that's nonlinear, that's one that's still 1046 00:53:20,190 --> 00:53:22,350 deterministic. 1047 00:53:22,350 --> 00:53:27,870 All of your rules will result in some sort of outcome. 1048 00:53:27,870 --> 00:53:31,140 But nonlinear enough that you can't really sort of 1049 00:53:31,140 --> 00:53:35,380 anticipate the entire possibility space when you're 1050 00:53:35,380 --> 00:53:39,350 making that decision. 1051 00:53:39,350 --> 00:53:41,640 If you're thinking of games, that's a huge possibility 1052 00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:44,230 space, then you, as the designer, your job is to try 1053 00:53:44,230 --> 00:53:49,620 to make them most frazzled areas of possibility space 1054 00:53:49,620 --> 00:53:51,700 interesting and fun. 1055 00:53:51,700 --> 00:53:56,816 So actually do folks know the phrase possibility space. 1056 00:53:56,816 --> 00:54:02,690 Yeah, and if you think of a game as just a series of terms 1057 00:54:02,690 --> 00:54:04,540 or series of decisions. 1058 00:54:04,540 --> 00:54:08,340 Then possibility space is basically every single result 1059 00:54:08,340 --> 00:54:11,290 that would come out from every single legal 1060 00:54:11,290 --> 00:54:13,340 decision in your game. 1061 00:54:13,340 --> 00:54:16,350 Some of them are going to make sense. 1062 00:54:16,350 --> 00:54:18,190 Like-- 1063 00:54:18,190 --> 00:54:20,960 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1064 00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:22,520 PROFESSOR: In process, which now I'm getting back to the 1065 00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:24,782 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1066 00:54:24,782 --> 00:54:31,650 Someone's got zero and zero, and it's my turn. 1067 00:54:31,650 --> 00:54:34,030 Putting in actually what makes sense. 1068 00:54:34,030 --> 00:54:38,200 Putting it anywhere else doesn't make any sense. 1069 00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:42,720 So I would argue that putting an X anywhere really isn't-- 1070 00:54:42,720 --> 00:54:45,939 well it is part of the possibility space, because I 1071 00:54:45,939 --> 00:54:48,660 could put it here, here, here, here or here. 1072 00:54:48,660 --> 00:54:52,400 You as a game designer, your job is to make sure that the 1073 00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:57,644 things that people won't naturally do are interesting. 1074 00:54:57,644 --> 00:55:01,430 You do not have necessarily any responsibility for 1075 00:55:01,430 --> 00:55:07,340 somebody who's just trying to play your game in a way that's 1076 00:55:07,340 --> 00:55:10,770 entirely not what you planned. 1077 00:55:10,770 --> 00:55:14,410 Say somebody plays one of these card games and says, 1078 00:55:14,410 --> 00:55:18,600 well I'm just going to play all my card face up. 1079 00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:21,036 Those specific rules that says that I have to bite my hand, 1080 00:55:21,036 --> 00:55:22,370 but [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1081 00:55:22,370 --> 00:55:25,142 You don't really need to keep it for that. 1082 00:55:25,142 --> 00:55:31,118 Nice to have a rule that explains, OK, this is what you 1083 00:55:31,118 --> 00:55:35,820 should hide your cards is crucial to your game. 1084 00:55:35,820 --> 00:55:38,622 But for the most part, when somebody plays your game in a 1085 00:55:38,622 --> 00:55:44,406 way that doesn't logically make sense, you're not really 1086 00:55:44,406 --> 00:55:47,298 obliged to make sure that they have fun. 1087 00:55:47,298 --> 00:55:50,010 On the other hand when people are making rational, if you 1088 00:55:50,010 --> 00:55:52,445 are making rational decisions-- 1089 00:55:52,445 --> 00:55:55,990 somebody puts an x here, and then the next move goes on and 1090 00:55:55,990 --> 00:56:01,680 you design your game, then it's your job to make sure 1091 00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:05,768 that OK, within the realm of the things that are legally 1092 00:56:05,768 --> 00:56:09,212 good, and strategically make sense, we're going to try to 1093 00:56:09,212 --> 00:56:10,476 make that game as interesting as possible. 1094 00:56:10,476 --> 00:56:11,726 That's your job. 1095 00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:26,303 So in order to sort of like help you figure out how to get 1096 00:56:26,303 --> 00:56:31,031 that, the reading from [UNINTELLIGIBLE] today, 1097 00:56:31,031 --> 00:56:34,799 introduce a few terms, if you've already taken game 1098 00:56:34,799 --> 00:56:37,750 theory and economic class or a math course, you probably 1099 00:56:37,750 --> 00:56:41,126 already know these in far more detail than you necessarily 1100 00:56:41,126 --> 00:56:43,541 need it for the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] is useful. 1101 00:56:43,541 --> 00:56:53,480 But utility it's a very useful concept. 1102 00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:55,520 It's difficult to quantify sometimes, but you're talking 1103 00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:59,270 about just like regular game design as opposed to the pure 1104 00:56:59,270 --> 00:57:02,084 mathematic thought experiment. 1105 00:57:02,084 --> 00:57:13,150 But a basic idea is if utility is like how winning a move is. 1106 00:57:13,150 --> 00:57:16,482 Is the likelihood that something is going to actually 1107 00:57:16,482 --> 00:57:17,440 call you a winner. 1108 00:57:17,440 --> 00:57:18,715 And in some ways, it's a measure of the games that 1109 00:57:18,715 --> 00:57:20,380 you're [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1110 00:57:20,380 --> 00:57:24,820 So [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1111 00:57:24,820 --> 00:57:28,020 example has this like ridiculous game where you 1112 00:57:28,020 --> 00:57:32,125 guess whether somebody has heads or tails. 1113 00:57:32,125 --> 00:57:35,083 And the person's like literally just choosing 1114 00:57:35,083 --> 00:57:37,560 whether it's going to be a heads or a tails, 1115 00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:41,230 and you just guess. 1116 00:57:41,230 --> 00:57:48,278 The idea being if [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1117 00:57:48,278 --> 00:57:53,158 So this is the guesser, this is the flipper. 1118 00:57:56,574 --> 00:57:59,262 So if the guesser guesses right, the 1119 00:57:59,262 --> 00:58:01,445 guesser gets a point. 1120 00:58:01,445 --> 00:58:07,510 And that's a choice of [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1121 00:58:07,510 --> 00:58:13,673 If the flipper chooses tails, the guesser chooses tails, the 1122 00:58:13,673 --> 00:58:15,541 guesser will get one. 1123 00:58:15,541 --> 00:58:18,860 And if not, then it reverses. 1124 00:58:18,860 --> 00:58:25,009 So the flipper again gets the penny if the 1125 00:58:25,009 --> 00:58:27,390 guesser gets it wrong. 1126 00:58:27,390 --> 00:58:30,365 So you can sort of tell that, just by looking at this, this 1127 00:58:30,365 --> 00:58:31,490 is a ridiculous game. 1128 00:58:31,490 --> 00:58:35,738 It's like at best, your average over multiple games is 1129 00:58:35,738 --> 00:58:37,600 just going to be zero. 1130 00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:39,560 On average it's just going to [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1131 00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:50,365 And you use this as example to describe how we can come up 1132 00:58:50,365 --> 00:58:52,779 with a strategy where you're not basically doing the same 1133 00:58:52,779 --> 00:58:53,690 thing all the time. 1134 00:58:53,690 --> 00:58:56,840 In this particular case, he's advocating that the best way 1135 00:58:56,840 --> 00:59:01,484 to win this game is pretty much to break even in this 1136 00:59:01,484 --> 00:59:04,300 game, and that's to just play it randomly. 1137 00:59:04,300 --> 00:59:06,750 Every single time just really caught up in it. 1138 00:59:06,750 --> 00:59:09,055 As soon as you get consistence, and either you'll 1139 00:59:09,055 --> 00:59:11,750 get this for your flips, then you are now 1140 00:59:11,750 --> 00:59:13,000 in a different package. 1141 00:59:16,410 --> 00:59:19,971 But what you're trying to do in-- 1142 00:59:19,971 --> 00:59:24,512 but in this particular case, the likelihood of whether it 1143 00:59:24,512 --> 00:59:26,845 is a heads or a tail, and you're actually doing it 1144 00:59:26,845 --> 00:59:32,480 randomly, but if you throw a kink and say, well if it most 1145 00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:38,750 comes up heads, instead of winning one penny, you win one 1146 00:59:38,750 --> 00:59:40,000 million dollars or something. 1147 00:59:42,410 --> 00:59:48,701 There's certainly the probability that the flipper 1148 00:59:48,701 --> 00:59:52,284 is going to choose heads, drops it, drops 1149 00:59:52,284 --> 00:59:53,228 like rubber, right? 1150 00:59:53,228 --> 00:59:56,060 Not a wise strategy. 1151 00:59:56,060 --> 01:00:01,520 If a flipper chooses heads 50% of the time, then the guesser 1152 01:00:01,520 --> 01:00:04,100 is going to be winning several million dollars pretty soon. 1153 01:00:04,100 --> 01:00:07,058 They'll be losing a couple of pennies once in a while, sure. 1154 01:00:07,058 --> 01:00:10,509 fine, I'll lose a couple of pennies, I'll just guess heads 1155 01:00:10,509 --> 01:00:11,010 all the time. 1156 01:00:11,010 --> 01:00:15,805 And if I know that they are flipping heads 50% of the 1157 01:00:15,805 --> 01:00:19,340 time, I'm going to be getting [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1158 01:00:19,340 --> 01:00:23,910 So in this particular case, the way how the flipper 1159 01:00:23,910 --> 01:00:30,560 balances it out is basically to flip tails about one 1160 01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:31,640 million to one. 1161 01:00:31,640 --> 01:00:34,550 I think it's more accurately it's like one million to two. 1162 01:00:34,550 --> 01:00:38,336 So it's like for every one million tail flips, I'm just 1163 01:00:38,336 --> 01:00:40,530 going to throw in a head flip every once in a while just 1164 01:00:40,530 --> 01:00:43,350 don't force the guesser to occasionally guess heads. 1165 01:00:43,350 --> 01:00:48,633 Because if the guesser knows the flipper will be crazy to 1166 01:00:48,633 --> 01:00:51,856 guess heads all the time, and does tails all the time, then 1167 01:00:51,856 --> 01:00:54,165 the guesser just guesses tails all the time, and after 50 1168 01:00:54,165 --> 01:00:57,550 games the guesser is ahead. 1169 01:00:57,550 --> 01:01:01,220 So the idea is every once in a while you throw in a head. 1170 01:01:01,220 --> 01:01:08,648 And it's roughly the opposite probability of the ability. 1171 01:01:08,648 --> 01:01:10,600 Approximately. 1172 01:01:10,600 --> 01:01:13,034 The numbers don't quite work out that easy. 1173 01:01:13,034 --> 01:01:16,589 But it's I guess in the scale that I'm using right now, one 1174 01:01:16,589 --> 01:01:19,196 million to one. 1175 01:01:19,196 --> 01:01:23,164 And when you're talking about balancing a game, if you can't 1176 01:01:23,164 --> 01:01:26,910 actually break down a decision in your game, say a particular 1177 01:01:26,910 --> 01:01:31,210 decision that a player has got to fake given a certain hand 1178 01:01:31,210 --> 01:01:32,840 or having a certain card. 1179 01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:37,670 And now they can make one or two or three decisions. 1180 01:01:37,670 --> 01:01:40,040 And knowing the card distribution well enough 1181 01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:43,444 saying well, 30% of the time decision A 1182 01:01:43,444 --> 01:01:45,430 is going to be good. 1183 01:01:45,430 --> 01:01:47,740 20% of the times decision B is going to be good. 1184 01:01:47,740 --> 01:01:51,660 And the other 50%, it's going to be decision C. 1185 01:01:51,660 --> 01:01:56,480 Then a balanced game, at least one definition of it, is that 1186 01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:59,950 the utility of all those decisions, the benefit that 1187 01:01:59,950 --> 01:02:02,320 you're going to get out of that maybe is 1188 01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:04,415 raw, winning points. 1189 01:02:04,415 --> 01:02:07,740 Victory points that you need to be able to get in the game. 1190 01:02:07,740 --> 01:02:09,640 Maybe some sort of cash. 1191 01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:12,380 The benefit of actually making that decision should probably 1192 01:02:12,380 --> 01:02:17,010 be in reverse proportion of those numbers. 1193 01:02:17,010 --> 01:02:23,432 So the thing that you will pick 50% of the time, that you 1194 01:02:23,432 --> 01:02:24,682 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1195 01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:44,696 So say you've got decision A, B, C. And-- 1196 01:02:47,684 --> 01:02:52,664 actually, I'm not sure if I need [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1197 01:02:52,664 --> 01:02:55,652 I'm actually really bad at this. 1198 01:02:55,652 --> 01:02:58,142 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1199 01:02:58,142 --> 01:03:02,624 C is 50% of the time C is good. 1200 01:03:02,624 --> 01:03:05,114 30% of the time A is good. 1201 01:03:05,114 --> 01:03:06,364 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1202 01:03:11,550 --> 01:03:14,840 If anyone knows how to do this better than me, 1203 01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:15,780 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1204 01:03:15,780 --> 01:03:17,660 AUDIENCE: What are you trying to do? 1205 01:03:17,660 --> 01:03:23,260 PROFESSOR: So the idea is that A should give you 1206 01:03:23,260 --> 01:03:25,930 disproportion will be higher than it is. 1207 01:03:25,930 --> 01:03:27,706 Not disproportionally, but should give you 1208 01:03:27,706 --> 01:03:34,631 proportionately higher than it did in decision C. So if C 1209 01:03:34,631 --> 01:03:36,074 gives you-- 1210 01:03:36,074 --> 01:03:38,960 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1211 01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:39,441 PROFESSOR: Say what? 1212 01:03:39,441 --> 01:03:40,691 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1213 01:03:43,770 --> 01:03:48,250 PROFESSOR: I'm just picking pure probability right now. 1214 01:03:48,250 --> 01:03:49,740 Assuming that you're just playing a game with this. 1215 01:03:49,740 --> 01:03:51,840 They're not playing as we presume 1216 01:03:51,840 --> 01:03:53,680 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1217 01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:59,704 So say doing decision C gives you five points. 1218 01:03:59,704 --> 01:04:01,450 AUDIENCE: You should do it with 30 the numbers would work 1219 01:04:01,450 --> 01:04:02,040 out better. 1220 01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:02,430 PROFESSOR: Say what? 1221 01:04:02,430 --> 01:04:04,406 AUDIENCE: If you use 30 the numbers will work out better. 1222 01:04:04,406 --> 01:04:05,656 PROFESSOR: OK. 1223 01:04:08,390 --> 01:04:10,382 30 coins for 50? 1224 01:04:10,382 --> 01:04:11,876 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1225 01:04:11,876 --> 01:04:13,126 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1226 01:04:19,370 --> 01:04:25,150 PROFESSOR: So if you choose B, then what sort of benefit 1227 01:04:25,150 --> 01:04:27,086 should you be getting? 1228 01:04:27,086 --> 01:04:29,506 About 13? 1229 01:04:29,506 --> 01:04:31,030 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1230 01:04:31,030 --> 01:04:31,380 PROFESSOR: 20. 1231 01:04:31,380 --> 01:04:32,374 AUDIENCE: 20. 1232 01:04:32,374 --> 01:04:36,847 PROFESSOR: But B only works less of the time. 1233 01:04:36,847 --> 01:04:38,835 This is [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1234 01:04:38,835 --> 01:04:40,330 AUDIENCE: Oh, great. 1235 01:04:40,330 --> 01:04:41,096 AUDIENCE: Oh. 1236 01:04:41,096 --> 01:04:42,346 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1237 01:04:45,432 --> 01:04:48,396 AUDIENCE: It would be 48, right? 1238 01:04:48,396 --> 01:04:50,372 AUDIENCE: Yup. 1239 01:04:50,372 --> 01:04:51,360 AUDIENCE: I would say 50? 1240 01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:52,348 AUDIENCE: I'm going with 50. 1241 01:04:52,348 --> 01:04:53,336 AUDIENCE: I'm going with 50. 1242 01:04:53,336 --> 01:04:55,312 You want the multiplication in the probability 1243 01:04:55,312 --> 01:04:56,300 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1244 01:04:56,300 --> 01:04:58,276 So when you multiply them [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1245 01:04:58,276 --> 01:05:00,252 AUDIENCE: And what would A do? 1246 01:05:00,252 --> 01:05:01,502 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1247 01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:10,120 PROFESSOR: And this makes it a situation where choosing A, B 1248 01:05:10,120 --> 01:05:14,560 or C becomes fairly even. 1249 01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:18,800 You could choose A, and you could get and 20% of the time 1250 01:05:18,800 --> 01:05:21,550 you've got a pretty good payout. 1251 01:05:21,550 --> 01:05:23,900 I'm really terrible at math, so I'm going to 1252 01:05:23,900 --> 01:05:24,400 see if this is right. 1253 01:05:24,400 --> 01:05:29,865 But this makes it so that you don't have an immediate 1254 01:05:29,865 --> 01:05:31,975 dominant strategy just like looking at your cards. 1255 01:05:31,975 --> 01:05:34,086 It's like well, obviously, I'm just going to do 1256 01:05:34,086 --> 01:05:36,515 this all the time. 1257 01:05:36,515 --> 01:05:39,305 This is very, very, very basic. 1258 01:05:39,305 --> 01:05:43,315 And I crap at doing this other thing. 1259 01:05:43,315 --> 01:05:47,000 But once in a while, it's a good idea to actually just 1260 01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:49,360 write out the numbers. 1261 01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:56,510 OK, I know that my opponent is always going to have five 1262 01:05:56,510 --> 01:05:57,824 cards in hand. 1263 01:05:57,824 --> 01:06:00,910 And out of the five cards they're going to have some 1264 01:06:00,910 --> 01:06:06,479 combination of cards that's going to be result in the 1265 01:06:06,479 --> 01:06:11,792 probability of A, B, C affects [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1266 01:06:11,792 --> 01:06:15,780 So I have part A, I have part B, I have part C. I could play 1267 01:06:15,780 --> 01:06:19,470 any one of those, and making that decision, you want to 1268 01:06:19,470 --> 01:06:26,980 give them rewards that are in inverse proportion to this. 1269 01:06:26,980 --> 01:06:30,200 That's one way that you can balance a game. 1270 01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:34,700 It is very much a first stab. 1271 01:06:34,700 --> 01:06:39,728 This is how you mathematically take that first stab, and then 1272 01:06:39,728 --> 01:06:44,852 you actually need to test it out, out of that. 1273 01:06:44,852 --> 01:06:48,268 You can't actually just assumed that that's 1274 01:06:48,268 --> 01:06:49,244 going to work out. 1275 01:06:49,244 --> 01:06:52,690 But it can get you pretty close, which is kind of nice. 1276 01:06:52,690 --> 01:06:57,070 If you're getting a situation where OK, they'll still seeing 1277 01:06:57,070 --> 01:07:02,220 a dominant strategy, but it's only a small number 1278 01:07:02,220 --> 01:07:04,204 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE], then you don't 1279 01:07:04,204 --> 01:07:05,196 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1280 01:07:05,196 --> 01:07:08,668 Actually those can sometimes be the hardest kinds of games 1281 01:07:08,668 --> 01:07:10,900 of balance because you keep making really, really small 1282 01:07:10,900 --> 01:07:13,650 changes, and you know when you get them. 1283 01:07:13,650 --> 01:07:14,900 But still, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1284 01:07:18,312 --> 01:07:22,776 That's really the only contact that I found utility to be a 1285 01:07:22,776 --> 01:07:24,760 useful part of this [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1286 01:07:29,720 --> 01:07:32,696 It's an interesting concept to be able to talk about 1287 01:07:32,696 --> 01:07:37,160 strategies, we talk about decisions making. 1288 01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:40,136 When it actually comes to now I'm going to sit down and 1289 01:07:40,136 --> 01:07:43,112 design a game, this is the only time when I'm actually 1290 01:07:43,112 --> 01:07:44,640 using [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1291 01:07:44,640 --> 01:07:49,244 If you found better uses for utility, please by all means 1292 01:07:49,244 --> 01:07:51,709 share it because I have not found any. 1293 01:08:00,090 --> 01:08:04,034 That's pretty much all. 1294 01:08:09,457 --> 01:08:11,922 Any questions? 1295 01:08:11,922 --> 01:08:13,401 AUDIENCE: The utility. 1296 01:08:13,401 --> 01:08:15,760 When we played the x game-- 1297 01:08:15,760 --> 01:08:16,756 PROFESSOR: Which one? 1298 01:08:16,756 --> 01:08:19,370 AUDIENCE: The game where you can either click on tokens or 1299 01:08:19,370 --> 01:08:19,744 roll the dice. 1300 01:08:19,744 --> 01:08:21,238 PROFESSOR: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1301 01:08:21,238 --> 01:08:23,230 AUDIENCE: The one that [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1302 01:08:23,230 --> 01:08:24,724 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1303 01:08:24,724 --> 01:08:26,716 PROFESSOR: Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. 1304 01:08:26,716 --> 01:08:27,214 Yeah. 1305 01:08:27,214 --> 01:08:28,708 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1306 01:08:28,708 --> 01:08:32,692 if you viewed the kind of strategy developed and the 1307 01:08:32,692 --> 01:08:34,684 game we built based on different dice and things, 1308 01:08:34,684 --> 01:08:36,676 that was kind of the utility model. 1309 01:08:36,676 --> 01:08:38,170 That we're trying to maximize [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1310 01:08:38,170 --> 01:08:40,660 And if you win you expect your utility 1311 01:08:40,660 --> 01:08:42,652 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1312 01:08:42,652 --> 01:08:45,640 And then like you can do a bunch of path [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1313 01:08:45,640 --> 01:08:49,126 to maximize these things [UNINTELLIGIBLE], which is-- 1314 01:08:49,126 --> 01:08:50,170 I don't know. 1315 01:08:50,170 --> 01:08:50,770 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 1316 01:08:50,770 --> 01:08:55,080 I mean the thing about it though, of course, if the 1317 01:08:55,080 --> 01:09:00,561 method you do basically says well the way to maximize our 1318 01:09:00,561 --> 01:09:03,630 expected value is just to do the same thing all the time, 1319 01:09:03,630 --> 01:09:07,490 and then that particular game, that's a very standard 1320 01:09:07,490 --> 01:09:09,840 strategy that tends to work. 1321 01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:12,859 Then you've got a game that's not interesting. 1322 01:09:12,859 --> 01:09:16,439 Then you've got a game where those decisions that you're 1323 01:09:16,439 --> 01:09:18,609 asking someone to make don't actually matter because 1324 01:09:18,609 --> 01:09:20,930 there's [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1325 01:09:20,930 --> 01:09:27,420 So yeah, that game is a fine example of a game that you 1326 01:09:27,420 --> 01:09:29,370 could use for work. 1327 01:09:29,370 --> 01:09:31,319 I'm not going to say the broken game because that was 1328 01:09:31,319 --> 01:09:34,894 specifically designed for the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1329 01:09:34,894 --> 01:09:36,840 that class act. 1330 01:09:36,840 --> 01:09:40,530 Here's this game, now I'm going [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1331 01:09:40,530 --> 01:09:43,259 But yeah, that's a good game where the utility's pretty 1332 01:09:43,259 --> 01:09:44,700 obvious, right? 1333 01:09:44,700 --> 01:09:46,300 How far are we going to get? 1334 01:09:46,300 --> 01:09:49,896 Well I could pick this token or I could roll the die, wait 1335 01:09:49,896 --> 01:09:52,620 a minute, on average you all come out to be about the same. 1336 01:09:52,620 --> 01:09:54,800 So it doesn't matter anymore. 1337 01:09:54,800 --> 01:09:57,032 Why this decision is no longer interesting. 1338 01:09:57,032 --> 01:09:59,462 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1339 01:09:59,462 --> 01:10:02,378 because the whole point was that you, the meaningful weave 1340 01:10:02,378 --> 01:10:04,808 is that you're pulling at the variance table, right? 1341 01:10:04,808 --> 01:10:07,238 Your expected values are the same. 1342 01:10:07,238 --> 01:10:09,668 Both of the cases when you're doing just a kind of 1343 01:10:09,668 --> 01:10:10,640 computation, right? 1344 01:10:10,640 --> 01:10:11,126 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1345 01:10:11,126 --> 01:10:12,897 AUDIENCE: Now I can [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1346 01:10:12,897 --> 01:10:16,376 Sometimes it's incredibly painful to not get the reward. 1347 01:10:16,376 --> 01:10:18,861 Sometimes you just want consistency. 1348 01:10:18,861 --> 01:10:21,843 So imagine in Settlers of Catan where you can go for a 1349 01:10:21,843 --> 01:10:24,493 strategy where you have a diverse set of numbers that 1350 01:10:24,493 --> 01:10:25,819 you can possibly rob. 1351 01:10:25,819 --> 01:10:30,292 And before you can just get up and [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1352 01:10:30,292 --> 01:10:32,777 Usually it's better to go for consistency, because you'll 1353 01:10:32,777 --> 01:10:34,268 get robbed. 1354 01:10:34,268 --> 01:10:36,256 AUDIENCE: You can use a large range of numbers. 1355 01:10:36,256 --> 01:10:37,250 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1356 01:10:37,250 --> 01:10:43,214 The chances you'll get a huge payoff off turn, and then a 1357 01:10:43,214 --> 01:10:44,705 seven will be rolled before you get 1358 01:10:44,705 --> 01:10:45,202 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1359 01:10:45,202 --> 01:10:46,693 They would have been better off generating 1360 01:10:46,693 --> 01:10:47,687 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1361 01:10:47,687 --> 01:10:50,669 Even if the expectation you generate [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1362 01:10:50,669 --> 01:10:52,466 PROFESSOR: But in the back of your head you always know that 1363 01:10:52,466 --> 01:10:55,288 you could go to the big payoff round. 1364 01:10:55,288 --> 01:10:57,280 And usually in a game-- 1365 01:10:57,280 --> 01:10:58,276 AUDIENCE: What I'm saying is there's a meaningful 1366 01:10:58,276 --> 01:10:59,272 difference between these things. 1367 01:10:59,272 --> 01:11:02,011 Even if your expected value/computation shows you 1368 01:11:02,011 --> 01:11:03,256 that there [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1369 01:11:03,256 --> 01:11:05,248 strategies [UNINTELLIGIBLE], the variance 1370 01:11:05,248 --> 01:11:07,240 can really be different. 1371 01:11:07,240 --> 01:11:08,734 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1372 01:11:08,734 --> 01:11:09,730 AUDIENCE: The decisions are very different. 1373 01:11:09,730 --> 01:11:11,888 If you're playing a three player version of Settlers you 1374 01:11:11,888 --> 01:11:13,714 want to be equally very diverse. 1375 01:11:13,714 --> 01:11:17,010 Whereas you imagine if there were a version of Settlers 1376 01:11:17,010 --> 01:11:20,790 where there were 10 players, you would want to like cluster 1377 01:11:20,790 --> 01:11:22,025 all around a couple different numbers. 1378 01:11:22,025 --> 01:11:25,825 Because then it's unlikely that if everyone's diverse, 1379 01:11:25,825 --> 01:11:26,775 everyone's not equal. 1380 01:11:26,775 --> 01:11:28,555 So you'd rather have a little bit of a [UNINTELLIGIBLE], 1381 01:11:28,555 --> 01:11:30,126 you'd be like way ahead of everybody. 1382 01:11:30,126 --> 01:11:34,300 Than having just the [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1383 01:11:34,300 --> 01:11:35,760 PROFESSOR: Well basically, again, 1384 01:11:35,760 --> 01:11:37,865 counting on the huge payout. 1385 01:11:37,865 --> 01:11:38,640 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1386 01:11:38,640 --> 01:11:40,435 But that comes out to like variance. 1387 01:11:40,435 --> 01:11:42,467 And where the expected value of the resources you get, this 1388 01:11:42,467 --> 01:11:47,135 is the same as the expected value of like winning the game 1389 01:11:47,135 --> 01:11:49,115 where you're really trying to maximize 1390 01:11:49,115 --> 01:11:50,365 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1391 01:11:52,580 --> 01:11:56,787 PROFESSOR: There was a really, really, really funny video 1392 01:11:56,787 --> 01:12:01,770 that I didn't show you guys about how to win at a lottery. 1393 01:12:01,770 --> 01:12:07,135 And they actually did trot out various facts, basically 1394 01:12:07,135 --> 01:12:11,437 saying that oh, some percent of the time two numbers-- 1395 01:12:11,437 --> 01:12:13,882 this is one of those lotteries where you pick six numbers, 1396 01:12:13,882 --> 01:12:19,505 and the number of numbers that correspond will get you a 1397 01:12:19,505 --> 01:12:20,239 certain payout. 1398 01:12:20,239 --> 01:12:24,640 And it's like some percentage of the time you will get two 1399 01:12:24,640 --> 01:12:28,389 numbers adjacent to each other, like 39 and 40 or 1400 01:12:28,389 --> 01:12:31,682 something like that. and there's like that's all, you 1401 01:12:31,682 --> 01:12:32,920 should pick two numbers. 1402 01:12:32,920 --> 01:12:35,890 That makes no sense at all. 1403 01:12:35,890 --> 01:12:37,140 Because [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1404 01:12:41,335 --> 01:12:45,320 In that particular case, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1405 01:12:45,320 --> 01:12:49,410 I think it was a good point to say, that you get to choose 1406 01:12:49,410 --> 01:12:52,490 how much variance [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1407 01:12:52,490 --> 01:12:55,320 How much risk are you willing [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1408 01:12:55,320 --> 01:12:58,520 Because in a game like Settlers, the nice thing about 1409 01:12:58,520 --> 01:13:01,940 it is if they're going for the big payout is it increases the 1410 01:13:01,940 --> 01:13:04,735 risk and increases the payout [UNINTELLIGIBLE], 1411 01:13:04,735 --> 01:13:07,717 or potential payout. 1412 01:13:07,717 --> 01:13:09,705 So that's what's nice about it. 1413 01:13:09,705 --> 01:13:12,190 That's a nice balancing act. 1414 01:13:12,190 --> 01:13:14,178 AUDIENCE: I don't know if anyone's played-- it's not 1415 01:13:14,178 --> 01:13:15,669 really a game, it's more of a math problem. 1416 01:13:32,590 --> 01:13:33,982 PROFESSOR: I haven't played that one. 1417 01:13:33,982 --> 01:13:35,232 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1418 01:13:37,360 --> 01:13:38,450 PROFESSOR: It's pretty cool. 1419 01:13:38,450 --> 01:13:41,394 Can you put that up on the board maybe? 1420 01:13:41,394 --> 01:13:41,890 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1421 01:13:41,890 --> 01:13:43,874 I can tell you right now. 1422 01:13:43,874 --> 01:13:47,205 It's first cube has three 5s, the three 2s. 1423 01:13:47,205 --> 01:13:49,012 PROFESSOR: Oh, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1424 01:13:49,012 --> 01:13:50,500 Three 5s and three 3s? 1425 01:13:50,500 --> 01:13:51,988 AUDIENCE: Three 2s. 1426 01:13:51,988 --> 01:13:53,238 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1427 01:13:56,452 --> 01:13:58,932 One of them is 5, 4 and a 1. 1428 01:13:58,932 --> 01:14:01,412 PROFESSOR: 5, 4-- 1429 01:14:01,412 --> 01:14:03,952 AUDIENCE: They all have expected value of 3 and 1/2. 1430 01:14:03,952 --> 01:14:05,440 same as the regular value. 1431 01:14:05,440 --> 01:14:08,912 Last one is one 6 and five 3s. 1432 01:14:08,912 --> 01:14:11,392 PROFESSOR: One 6 and five 3s. 1433 01:14:11,392 --> 01:14:15,360 AUDIENCE: They all have the expected value of 3 and 1/2. 1434 01:14:15,360 --> 01:14:20,320 Now, the game is first player chooses a die, and the second 1435 01:14:20,320 --> 01:14:21,808 player chooses a die. 1436 01:14:21,808 --> 01:14:24,784 And then [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1437 01:14:27,290 --> 01:14:28,442 PROFESSOR: Just [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1438 01:14:28,442 --> 01:14:28,890 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1439 01:14:28,890 --> 01:14:31,406 PROFESSOR: And then do you re-roll with the game dice? 1440 01:14:31,406 --> 01:14:31,899 AUDIENCE: No. 1441 01:14:31,899 --> 01:14:35,843 The first player chooses the die, and the second player 1442 01:14:35,843 --> 01:14:36,193 sees what the first person chose and then the second 1443 01:14:36,193 --> 01:14:37,443 player chooses a die. 1444 01:14:39,787 --> 01:14:42,087 So truthfully, the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] take it 1445 01:14:42,087 --> 01:14:44,224 reverse, and the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] second, even 1446 01:14:44,224 --> 01:14:46,196 though they [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1447 01:14:46,196 --> 01:14:48,320 PROFESSOR: I see. 1448 01:14:48,320 --> 01:14:50,208 AUDIENCE: If you're first, you want to [UNINTELLIGIBLE] the 1449 01:14:50,208 --> 01:14:52,530 board, is that right? 1450 01:14:52,530 --> 01:14:56,830 But five 2s beats the 4s, but [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1451 01:14:56,830 --> 01:14:59,830 AUDIENCE: They can probably just use the 4s for 1452 01:14:59,830 --> 01:15:01,330 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1453 01:15:01,330 --> 01:15:04,830 AUDIENCE: It's the first player tries [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1454 01:15:04,830 --> 01:15:06,330 AUDIENCE: I don't know exactly, but I'm pretty sure 1455 01:15:06,330 --> 01:15:07,830 if you're first, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1456 01:15:10,330 --> 01:15:10,830 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1457 01:15:10,830 --> 01:15:11,720 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1458 01:15:11,720 --> 01:15:14,660 It's three 6s so dominated by the 4s, but it's like 1459 01:15:14,660 --> 01:15:15,370 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1460 01:15:15,370 --> 01:15:16,250 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1461 01:15:16,250 --> 01:15:19,238 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1462 01:15:19,238 --> 01:15:21,230 The second always wins. 1463 01:15:21,230 --> 01:15:22,730 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1464 01:15:22,730 --> 01:15:25,070 AUDIENCE: They can probabilistically win. 1465 01:15:25,070 --> 01:15:26,968 PROFESSOR: So what you're describing is a strategy for 1466 01:15:26,968 --> 01:15:28,254 the second player. 1467 01:15:28,254 --> 01:15:32,700 Basically, if the first player can [UNINTELLIGIBLE], you pick 1468 01:15:32,700 --> 01:15:35,356 something, and on average you will win 1469 01:15:35,356 --> 01:15:36,580 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1470 01:15:36,580 --> 01:15:38,585 AUDIENCE: It would be more interesting if you did it in 1471 01:15:38,585 --> 01:15:40,195 two rounds [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1472 01:15:40,195 --> 01:15:42,610 everyone takes a die sequentially. 1473 01:15:42,610 --> 01:15:45,025 And then they roll to see who goes first. 1474 01:15:45,025 --> 01:15:47,980 Because then you're aiming to try to like hit the middle. 1475 01:15:47,980 --> 01:15:49,912 PROFESSOR: Will you do that one more time? 1476 01:15:49,912 --> 01:15:54,600 AUDIENCE: So you randomly decide who goes first. 1477 01:15:54,600 --> 01:15:57,785 So the first person chooses a die, and then the next person 1478 01:15:57,785 --> 01:15:59,590 chooses a die, then next person chooses die. 1479 01:15:59,590 --> 01:16:03,680 And they roll to determine the order of the actual game. 1480 01:16:03,680 --> 01:16:07,102 So what you're trying to roll for is to get in second place 1481 01:16:07,102 --> 01:16:10,281 rather than first because the optimal strategy 1482 01:16:10,281 --> 01:16:14,200 is the second choice. 1483 01:16:14,200 --> 01:16:15,260 AUDIENCE: Oh that's bizzare. 1484 01:16:15,260 --> 01:16:16,785 AUDIENCE: Yeah, but the problem is if you take 6 and 1485 01:16:16,785 --> 01:16:19,602 3, you also have a pretty high chance of 1486 01:16:19,602 --> 01:16:20,568 getting the last one. 1487 01:16:20,568 --> 01:16:22,017 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1488 01:16:22,017 --> 01:16:24,915 AUDIENCE: Well yeah, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1489 01:16:24,915 --> 01:16:27,330 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1490 01:16:27,330 --> 01:16:29,262 PROFESSOR: Evolution is something which happens 1491 01:16:29,262 --> 01:16:30,730 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] is well. 1492 01:16:30,730 --> 01:16:34,440 OK, you show that it's clearly a dominant strategy, but how 1493 01:16:34,440 --> 01:16:36,887 you get to deciding what [UNINTELLIGIBLE] strategy to 1494 01:16:36,887 --> 01:16:39,505 use gave meaningful information because 1495 01:16:39,505 --> 01:16:40,499 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1496 01:16:40,499 --> 01:16:41,990 PROFESSOR: That's possible as well. 1497 01:16:44,940 --> 01:16:46,950 PROFESSOR: Once it gets to that point, then you want to 1498 01:16:46,950 --> 01:16:50,304 think about well maybe there's something you can do to your 1499 01:16:50,304 --> 01:16:52,378 original game to make it easier for people to get to 1500 01:16:52,378 --> 01:16:54,696 that second level of the game. 1501 01:16:54,696 --> 01:16:59,910 And you don't necessarily always have to, because there 1502 01:16:59,910 --> 01:17:02,280 are going to be people who are just going to have fun at this 1503 01:17:02,280 --> 01:17:05,470 point, to sort of like playing this game as opposed to 1504 01:17:05,470 --> 01:17:08,800 figuring out who goes first. 1505 01:17:08,800 --> 01:17:11,600 But it'll be interesting if in the process of designing this 1506 01:17:11,600 --> 01:17:14,680 game, you've got rules to actually let people decide who 1507 01:17:14,680 --> 01:17:15,165 goes first. 1508 01:17:15,165 --> 01:17:18,560 And the people who haven't figured out the dominant 1509 01:17:18,560 --> 01:17:22,242 strategy, this is where the game is at. 1510 01:17:22,242 --> 01:17:26,130 Just like the first player has an equal [UNINTELLIGIBLE] as 1511 01:17:26,130 --> 01:17:27,600 the second player. 1512 01:17:27,600 --> 01:17:31,860 And then later on when people start to realize that there is 1513 01:17:31,860 --> 01:17:34,540 actually a strategy, they got playing the other game of who 1514 01:17:34,540 --> 01:17:35,730 goes first. 1515 01:17:35,730 --> 01:17:39,860 But if you design your game right, then you can make it 1516 01:17:39,860 --> 01:17:40,690 all the same game. 1517 01:17:40,690 --> 01:17:42,385 It's just which set of rules that they're most concerned 1518 01:17:42,385 --> 01:17:45,110 about and you could [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1519 01:17:45,110 --> 01:17:48,735 It would be nice if your games could do that. 1520 01:17:48,735 --> 01:17:51,669 Let's see how [UNINTELLIGIBLE] they get. 1521 01:17:55,100 --> 01:17:57,650 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] move away from game period 1522 01:17:57,650 --> 01:17:59,820 [UNINTELLIGIBLE]? 1523 01:17:59,820 --> 01:18:01,920 Are you even going to mention Prisoner's Dillema because I 1524 01:18:01,920 --> 01:18:05,065 think that's a great tool to try to look at dramatic 1525 01:18:05,065 --> 01:18:08,045 tension and interesting discussions for players. 1526 01:18:08,045 --> 01:18:10,610 AUDIENCE: That does happen often in strategy games. 1527 01:18:10,610 --> 01:18:11,480 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 1528 01:18:11,480 --> 01:18:12,436 Well-- 1529 01:18:12,436 --> 01:18:14,826 AUDIENCE: Not in a game where you're [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1530 01:18:14,826 --> 01:18:17,220 PROFESSOR: There are two arguments about that one. 1531 01:18:17,220 --> 01:18:19,270 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1532 01:18:19,270 --> 01:18:22,470 I guess we actually have human beings playing. 1533 01:18:22,470 --> 01:18:25,106 PROFESSOR: So the Prisoner's Dillema as 1534 01:18:25,106 --> 01:18:27,890 covered in the reading. 1535 01:18:27,890 --> 01:18:29,840 I don't know the exact numbers. 1536 01:18:29,840 --> 01:18:32,942 But basically you've got two people-- 1537 01:18:32,942 --> 01:18:35,412 AUDIENCE: Well they didn't say exact numbers 1538 01:18:35,412 --> 01:18:36,894 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1539 01:18:36,894 --> 01:18:38,376 PROFESSOR: I think we have a chart. 1540 01:18:38,376 --> 01:18:40,860 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] punishment [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1541 01:18:40,860 --> 01:18:43,620 PROFESSOR: In fact, I may be thinking of [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1542 01:18:43,620 --> 01:18:45,620 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1543 01:18:45,620 --> 01:18:48,916 PROFESSOR: The one that I know is that-- 1544 01:18:48,916 --> 01:18:58,608 let's see, I know defect is one of the cases. 1545 01:18:58,608 --> 01:19:01,398 Anybody remember what the term we use for cooperating? 1546 01:19:01,398 --> 01:19:02,648 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1547 01:19:06,278 --> 01:19:06,766 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 1548 01:19:06,766 --> 01:19:08,016 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1549 01:19:12,134 --> 01:19:17,080 So if both people cooperate, they get something like what, 1550 01:19:17,080 --> 01:19:20,760 five years in prison? 1551 01:19:20,760 --> 01:19:21,685 So it's like the town. 1552 01:19:21,685 --> 01:19:23,870 OK, we get two people who are involved in the same 1553 01:19:23,870 --> 01:19:24,830 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1554 01:19:24,830 --> 01:19:27,475 and they both get caught but then there's not enough 1555 01:19:27,475 --> 01:19:30,060 evidence to throw both of them away for a real long time. 1556 01:19:30,060 --> 01:19:34,932 So the basic idea is each of them is separated, and then 1557 01:19:34,932 --> 01:19:38,350 you give us information on the other guy. 1558 01:19:38,350 --> 01:19:42,072 Then we will reduce your sentence, and that other guy 1559 01:19:42,072 --> 01:19:47,808 is going to get hammered with a sentence but we'll give you 1560 01:19:47,808 --> 01:19:50,970 a get out of jail free card. 1561 01:19:50,970 --> 01:19:54,990 But if you don't tell us anything, if you cooperate 1562 01:19:54,990 --> 01:19:59,322 with your partner, and don't give us the evidence that we 1563 01:19:59,322 --> 01:20:01,656 need, we still have enough evidence to put you away for 1564 01:20:01,656 --> 01:20:01,990 five years. 1565 01:20:01,990 --> 01:20:03,490 So that's [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1566 01:20:03,490 --> 01:20:05,490 Both of you will go away for five years. 1567 01:20:05,490 --> 01:20:12,100 Now, if you do decide to give us the information, then you 1568 01:20:12,100 --> 01:20:16,250 really get away with just one year in prison. 1569 01:20:16,250 --> 01:20:21,850 But the the guy you just ratted on 1570 01:20:21,850 --> 01:20:23,290 goes away for 30 years. 1571 01:20:23,290 --> 01:20:25,690 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1572 01:20:25,690 --> 01:20:29,970 And of course, if both of you decide to rat on each other, 1573 01:20:29,970 --> 01:20:31,970 oh now we've got [UNINTELLIGIBLE] charges. 1574 01:20:31,970 --> 01:20:32,920 That's awesome. 1575 01:20:32,920 --> 01:20:35,800 Both of you go away for a very long time. 1576 01:20:35,800 --> 01:20:37,050 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1577 01:20:39,170 --> 01:20:40,360 AUDIENCE: You need to make [UNINTELLIGIBLE] defecting 1578 01:20:40,360 --> 01:20:41,460 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1579 01:20:41,460 --> 01:20:44,323 a person cooperating and another defecting. 1580 01:20:44,323 --> 01:20:45,285 PROFESSOR: Oh, right. 1581 01:20:45,285 --> 01:20:45,766 Right. 1582 01:20:45,766 --> 01:20:47,690 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 1583 01:20:47,690 --> 01:20:50,430 PROFESSOR: I seen versions where it's not equal. 1584 01:20:50,430 --> 01:20:51,660 But yeah, it's-- 1585 01:20:51,660 --> 01:20:52,340 AUDIENCE: Separate game. 1586 01:20:52,340 --> 01:20:56,538 PROFESSOR: RXY72? 1587 01:20:56,538 --> 01:20:58,150 AUDIENCE: No. 1588 01:20:58,150 --> 01:21:00,132 Defect should be 66. 1589 01:21:00,132 --> 01:21:01,520 Defect should be-- 1590 01:21:01,520 --> 01:21:04,202 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] were you cooperating, but better than 1591 01:21:04,202 --> 01:21:05,950 getting out. 1592 01:21:05,950 --> 01:21:06,530 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 1593 01:21:06,530 --> 01:21:07,330 Yeah. 1594 01:21:07,330 --> 01:21:07,910 You're right. 1595 01:21:07,910 --> 01:21:10,280 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1596 01:21:10,280 --> 01:21:12,818 So this [UNINTELLIGIBLE] is probably too high too, too. 1597 01:21:12,818 --> 01:21:14,270 But-- 1598 01:21:14,270 --> 01:21:17,174 AUDIENCE: I mean it [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1599 01:21:17,174 --> 01:21:19,836 AUDIENCE: All that matters is that it doesn't matter what 1600 01:21:19,836 --> 01:21:23,960 your opponent does that he will [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1601 01:21:23,960 --> 01:21:25,230 PROFESSOR: Although-- 1602 01:21:25,230 --> 01:21:25,930 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] looking at. 1603 01:21:25,930 --> 01:21:29,550 PROFESSOR: --they told me that, which is true for a 1604 01:21:29,550 --> 01:21:32,862 single instance of this game. 1605 01:21:32,862 --> 01:21:36,306 The thing that gets really complex is what happens is you 1606 01:21:36,306 --> 01:21:39,258 had to play this multiple times because you're multiple, 1607 01:21:39,258 --> 01:21:43,686 repeat offender bank robber who gets caught all the time. 1608 01:21:43,686 --> 01:21:44,945 AUDIENCE: Just give up. 1609 01:21:47,570 --> 01:21:49,990 PROFESSOR: And that's where you get into various 1610 01:21:49,990 --> 01:21:52,070 strategies. 1611 01:21:52,070 --> 01:21:55,880 The strategy in that particular dilemma is you 1612 01:21:55,880 --> 01:22:00,720 should always betray your partner because on average, 1613 01:22:00,720 --> 01:22:02,572 you're going to come out ahead. 1614 01:22:02,572 --> 01:22:03,498 Is that right? 1615 01:22:03,498 --> 01:22:05,232 AUDIENCE: The strategy is you do whatever the partner did to 1616 01:22:05,232 --> 01:22:06,750 you last time. 1617 01:22:06,750 --> 01:22:07,690 PROFESSOR: No. 1618 01:22:07,690 --> 01:22:09,820 That's a single game [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1619 01:22:09,820 --> 01:22:10,800 AUDIENCE: Oh yeah, single game. 1620 01:22:10,800 --> 01:22:11,780 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1621 01:22:11,780 --> 01:22:14,720 AUDIENCE: You always send out [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1622 01:22:14,720 --> 01:22:19,495 PROFESSOR: So let me see, if you defect, then what happens 1623 01:22:19,495 --> 01:22:24,380 is that you could get away with one or six years. 1624 01:22:24,380 --> 01:22:29,048 Six, you don't know what your opponent is going to do. 1625 01:22:29,048 --> 01:22:33,520 That's something like three months time. 1626 01:22:33,520 --> 01:22:36,580 If you cooperate then it's going to be 1627 01:22:36,580 --> 01:22:38,044 between three and seven. 1628 01:22:38,044 --> 01:22:40,972 So that's more like expected value of five. 1629 01:22:43,800 --> 01:22:46,702 AUDIENCE: You're not trying to win this game, you're trying 1630 01:22:46,702 --> 01:22:47,678 to [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1631 01:22:47,678 --> 01:22:48,654 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1632 01:22:48,654 --> 01:22:50,120 is actually right. 1633 01:22:50,120 --> 01:22:52,579 Say your opponent couldn't cooperate. 1634 01:22:52,579 --> 01:22:54,894 Then what if you didn't cooperate? 1635 01:22:54,894 --> 01:22:56,746 If you were to cooperate you get three years. 1636 01:22:56,746 --> 01:22:58,670 If you defect you get one year. 1637 01:22:58,670 --> 01:23:00,240 So you should defect. 1638 01:23:00,240 --> 01:23:01,940 What if they were to defect? 1639 01:23:01,940 --> 01:23:05,558 Well if you were to cooperate, then you'd get one year. 1640 01:23:05,558 --> 01:23:09,446 And if you would cooperate then you'd seven years. 1641 01:23:09,446 --> 01:23:10,418 But if you were to defect, you'd only get six years. 1642 01:23:10,418 --> 01:23:11,876 So you defect then too. 1643 01:23:11,876 --> 01:23:14,306 So you should just go ahead with that. 1644 01:23:14,306 --> 01:23:16,250 PROFESSOR: That's-- 1645 01:23:16,250 --> 01:23:19,155 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1646 01:23:19,155 --> 01:23:20,880 PROFESSOR: That's basically [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1647 01:23:20,880 --> 01:23:24,470 what's the minimum-- 1648 01:23:24,470 --> 01:23:26,770 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1649 01:23:26,770 --> 01:23:30,430 higher numbers to represent that thing happening to you. 1650 01:23:30,430 --> 01:23:34,995 But the whole principle of [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1651 01:23:34,995 --> 01:23:39,432 we are trying to maximize your minimum benefits, and the 1652 01:23:39,432 --> 01:23:41,650 minimum benefit in this particular 1653 01:23:41,650 --> 01:23:47,813 case, happens in defect. 1654 01:23:47,813 --> 01:23:50,815 Because the most you can possibly get is six years if 1655 01:23:50,815 --> 01:23:52,555 you defect. 1656 01:23:52,555 --> 01:23:56,232 If you ever cooperate, there's a chance that you're going to 1657 01:23:56,232 --> 01:23:57,525 get to the years. 1658 01:23:57,525 --> 01:23:58,775 So [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1659 01:24:01,270 --> 01:24:06,200 The only problem is, again, once you get into this 1660 01:24:06,200 --> 01:24:09,090 repeated over many, many times, then you're in a 1661 01:24:09,090 --> 01:24:13,180 situation where if you build up a reputation, that all 1662 01:24:13,180 --> 01:24:18,330 you're going to do is defect, then you can almost assume 1663 01:24:18,330 --> 01:24:19,350 that your-- 1664 01:24:19,350 --> 01:24:22,730 you can pretty much assume that whoever you're playing 1665 01:24:22,730 --> 01:24:25,039 against is also going to defect. 1666 01:24:25,039 --> 01:24:27,484 At which point you will always [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1667 01:24:27,484 --> 01:24:29,440 You will never be able to get here. 1668 01:24:32,730 --> 01:24:38,820 There is a concept that helps deal with situations like this 1669 01:24:38,820 --> 01:24:41,000 that actually make cooperation, 1670 01:24:41,000 --> 01:24:42,800 again, a viable strategy. 1671 01:24:45,710 --> 01:24:47,080 I'm hoping I'm getting this right. 1672 01:24:50,280 --> 01:24:53,510 Well [UNINTELLIGIBLE] in the reading suggested there are 1673 01:24:53,510 --> 01:24:54,398 saddle points. 1674 01:24:54,398 --> 01:25:00,180 There are saddle points that basically mean this is where 1675 01:25:00,180 --> 01:25:03,920 all the strategies pretty much end up because of the 1676 01:25:03,920 --> 01:25:06,720 reasoning that we just [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1677 01:25:06,720 --> 01:25:11,060 You are maximizing the minimum chaos. 1678 01:25:11,060 --> 01:25:14,040 The minimum benefit [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1679 01:25:17,800 --> 01:25:20,938 And they all [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1680 01:25:20,938 --> 01:25:23,890 If everyone did the same analysis, 1681 01:25:23,890 --> 01:25:25,860 they all end up here. 1682 01:25:25,860 --> 01:25:30,690 But John Nash comes along and he suggests that there are 1683 01:25:30,690 --> 01:25:34,760 other kinds of saddle points that could be found. 1684 01:25:34,760 --> 01:25:38,960 And these are points where, assuming that everybody sticks 1685 01:25:38,960 --> 01:25:42,110 with whatever strategies that they've got, if I were to 1686 01:25:42,110 --> 01:25:44,800 change my strategy I will end up in a horrid situation. 1687 01:25:47,470 --> 01:25:48,720 So-- 1688 01:25:51,392 --> 01:25:53,807 AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1689 01:25:53,807 --> 01:25:54,773 AUDIENCE: Defective for that. 1690 01:25:54,773 --> 01:25:57,200 Defective [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1691 01:25:57,200 --> 01:25:57,983 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 1692 01:25:57,983 --> 01:25:58,950 [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 1693 01:25:58,950 --> 01:26:04,880 remains one of the saddle points Nash [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1694 01:26:04,880 --> 01:26:08,316 But the other thing about it is that what actually becomes 1695 01:26:08,316 --> 01:26:10,540 an unstable equilibrium. 1696 01:26:10,540 --> 01:26:15,650 It's one of those things, especially in a multiple game, 1697 01:26:15,650 --> 01:26:20,965 is like if you're going to assume and you're going to be 1698 01:26:20,965 --> 01:26:23,997 playing this game over and over and over and over again, 1699 01:26:23,997 --> 01:26:27,925 switching out of coop has a long-term detrimental effect. 1700 01:26:27,925 --> 01:26:31,362 Because especially-- if you know that other people have a 1701 01:26:31,362 --> 01:26:33,430 strategy of basically I'm going to do 1702 01:26:33,430 --> 01:26:34,777 what you did to me. 1703 01:26:34,777 --> 01:26:38,190 It's called tit for tat. 1704 01:26:38,190 --> 01:26:44,560 If you actually stick with coop, and if everybody else is 1705 01:26:44,560 --> 01:26:47,760 using the same reasoning as you are, which is another 1706 01:26:47,760 --> 01:26:51,570 interesting bit of a wrinkle that Nash throws in. 1707 01:26:51,570 --> 01:26:55,416 Whatever analysis you are capable of solving, everybody 1708 01:26:55,416 --> 01:26:57,896 else because everybody's a natural player. 1709 01:26:57,896 --> 01:27:02,580 Therefore, what actually becomes a unstable, but 1710 01:27:02,580 --> 01:27:04,990 possible because [UNINTELLIGIBLE] points. 1711 01:27:04,990 --> 01:27:10,544 Because switching out actually leads to the net loss for 1712 01:27:10,544 --> 01:27:12,488 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1713 01:27:12,488 --> 01:27:15,900 And that was kind of the little thing that he threw in 1714 01:27:15,900 --> 01:27:19,100 that kind of made his name and then [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1715 01:27:23,550 --> 01:27:36,010 But the basic idea is what is useful from a one table like 1716 01:27:36,010 --> 01:27:39,094 this becomes really, really interesting when you think 1717 01:27:39,094 --> 01:27:41,330 about what you're going to do in the long-term. 1718 01:27:41,330 --> 01:27:45,190 I believe there's a couple of other strategies that involve 1719 01:27:45,190 --> 01:27:49,420 things like instead of just doing what I did to you last, 1720 01:27:49,420 --> 01:27:53,896 just sort of like well if you defect and I were to defect 1721 01:27:53,896 --> 01:27:56,750 the next time, which I think that's a pretty good 1722 01:27:56,750 --> 01:27:56,860 perspective. 1723 01:27:56,860 --> 01:27:58,675 But they didn't cooperate and I wouldn't 1724 01:27:58,675 --> 01:28:02,080 cooperate next time. 1725 01:28:02,080 --> 01:28:04,922 There's also strategies like well as soon as you defect, 1726 01:28:04,922 --> 01:28:07,778 I'm going to nothing but defect. 1727 01:28:07,778 --> 01:28:14,250 And that actually was an interesting group, because 1728 01:28:14,250 --> 01:28:20,400 that I think changes the utility numbers in a way where 1729 01:28:20,400 --> 01:28:24,850 a single defection has a huge negative [UNINTELLIGIBLE] in a 1730 01:28:24,850 --> 01:28:26,969 way that you might want to [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1731 01:28:30,258 --> 01:28:34,704 But for the most part, I think tit for tat turned out to be 1732 01:28:34,704 --> 01:28:38,162 the best strategy over the long term. 1733 01:28:38,162 --> 01:28:41,126 Depending on hos the numbers are weighted, tit for tat 1734 01:28:41,126 --> 01:28:43,430 basically says whatever you do, I'm going 1735 01:28:43,430 --> 01:28:45,078 to do to you next. 1736 01:28:45,078 --> 01:28:49,524 And that actually turns out pretty good because that 1737 01:28:49,524 --> 01:28:51,994 actually is not [UNINTELLIGIBLE] coop actually 1738 01:28:51,994 --> 01:28:53,476 works [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1739 01:28:56,480 --> 01:28:56,970 Yeah. 1740 01:28:56,970 --> 01:28:58,220 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1741 01:29:04,682 --> 01:29:09,120 AUDIENCE: This also only works if there's an unknown number 1742 01:29:09,120 --> 01:29:10,336 of future games. 1743 01:29:10,336 --> 01:29:13,294 Because if you know you're going to play any finite 1744 01:29:13,294 --> 01:29:14,280 number of times-- 1745 01:29:14,280 --> 01:29:14,773 PROFESSOR: True. 1746 01:29:14,773 --> 01:29:15,759 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1747 01:29:15,759 --> 01:29:17,731 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 1748 01:29:17,731 --> 01:29:20,196 There is basically it's just like induction. 1749 01:29:20,196 --> 01:29:21,446 It goes on forever. 1750 01:29:25,140 --> 01:29:28,089 But you're going to hope that your game's going to get 1751 01:29:28,089 --> 01:29:31,333 played infinite number of times. 1752 01:29:31,333 --> 01:29:32,583 We are planning for it. 1753 01:29:35,325 --> 01:29:38,319 Not an infinite number of turns. 1754 01:29:38,319 --> 01:29:40,744 AUDIENCE: The winner can only resolve after 1755 01:29:40,744 --> 01:29:42,720 [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 1756 01:29:42,720 --> 01:29:45,684 PROFESSOR: First one who gives up [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 1757 01:29:50,130 --> 01:29:52,106 I really need to get some water. 1758 01:29:55,070 --> 01:29:55,564 AUDIENCE: Game break. 1759 01:29:55,564 --> 01:29:56,080 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 1760 01:29:56,080 --> 01:29:57,440 I'm going to give a quick break. 1761 01:29:57,440 --> 01:29:59,520 But does everyone have your [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 1762 01:29:59,520 --> 01:30:00,480 sheets? 1763 01:30:00,480 --> 01:30:00,960 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 1764 01:30:00,960 --> 01:30:01,440 PROFESSOR: OK. 1765 01:30:01,440 --> 01:30:06,140 I will lecture and pick up on that in about 10 minutes.