1 00:00:01,501 --> 00:00:03,870 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:03,870 --> 00:00:05,238 Commons license. 3 00:00:05,238 --> 00:00:07,474 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 4 00:00:07,474 --> 00:00:11,544 continue to offer high-quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:11,544 --> 00:00:14,080 To make a donation, or to view additional materials 6 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:18,051 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 7 00:00:18,051 --> 00:00:24,991 at ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:24,991 --> 00:00:27,227 AUDIENCE: So my question is sort of two-fold. 9 00:00:27,227 --> 00:00:31,131 It sort of goes back on some of the other things 10 00:00:31,131 --> 00:00:35,168 we've discussed with the recent elections. 11 00:00:35,168 --> 00:00:38,705 So I've recently been following some of your stuff. 12 00:00:38,705 --> 00:00:40,440 And there's evidence that suggests 13 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:45,345 that you sort of predicted the rise of the Trump campaign 14 00:00:45,345 --> 00:00:48,581 about seven years ago. 15 00:00:48,581 --> 00:00:53,286 And I'm sort of curious, what was so different 16 00:00:53,286 --> 00:00:55,221 about this election? 17 00:00:55,221 --> 00:01:00,927 I presume you've seen the rise of many presidential candidates 18 00:01:00,927 --> 00:01:01,928 over the years. 19 00:01:01,928 --> 00:01:03,930 And I'm sort of curious to understand, 20 00:01:03,930 --> 00:01:09,035 what sort of prompted that speculation? 21 00:01:09,035 --> 00:01:11,104 And the second part of my question 22 00:01:11,104 --> 00:01:14,874 sort of is looking more so into the future. 23 00:01:14,874 --> 00:01:18,978 So as we've discussed, America is probably more polarized. 24 00:01:18,978 --> 00:01:23,049 And it's sort of been-- in the past. 25 00:01:23,049 --> 00:01:25,251 And there's s of this idea that the clustering 26 00:01:25,251 --> 00:01:29,422 of like-minded Americans is tearing us apart. 27 00:01:29,422 --> 00:01:36,096 So where do you see the future of this nation going? 28 00:01:36,096 --> 00:01:38,298 NOAM CHOMSKY: Well, I mean, there 29 00:01:38,298 --> 00:01:40,900 are many special factors in the United States. 30 00:01:40,900 --> 00:01:42,702 Societies are different. 31 00:01:42,702 --> 00:01:47,039 But notice that what happened in this election, what actually 32 00:01:47,039 --> 00:01:51,578 happened in the 2016 election is that the mainstream 33 00:01:51,578 --> 00:01:56,783 establishment institutions were basically destroyed. 34 00:01:56,783 --> 00:02:00,587 The two major phenomena in this election 35 00:02:00,587 --> 00:02:03,890 were the Sanders campaign among the Democrats 36 00:02:03,890 --> 00:02:06,960 and the Trump campaign among the Republicans. 37 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,662 And they were both anti-establishment. 38 00:02:09,662 --> 00:02:14,667 And the voters went that way. 39 00:02:14,667 --> 00:02:17,837 If you take a look at polling results, you can see it. 40 00:02:17,837 --> 00:02:21,674 I mean, anger and contempt for institutions 41 00:02:21,674 --> 00:02:23,977 is just phenomenal. 42 00:02:23,977 --> 00:02:27,607 If you ask people in polls, do you 43 00:02:27,607 --> 00:02:31,284 have any-- what do you think about Congress? 44 00:02:31,284 --> 00:02:35,121 You know, 90% say they should be all thrown out. 45 00:02:35,121 --> 00:02:36,789 In fact, about the only institution 46 00:02:36,789 --> 00:02:39,392 that has any respect is the military 47 00:02:39,392 --> 00:02:42,529 because you're taught somehow, the military 48 00:02:42,529 --> 00:02:47,400 is defending us from who knows what. 49 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:48,801 And the same is true in Europe. 50 00:02:48,801 --> 00:02:52,372 Take a look at the French election a couple of days ago. 51 00:02:52,372 --> 00:02:55,175 The two candidates were outsiders. 52 00:02:55,175 --> 00:02:59,045 The political parties barely participated. 53 00:02:59,045 --> 00:03:04,050 Macron and Le Pen are from outside the mainstream that 54 00:03:04,050 --> 00:03:06,953 has run Europe for 50 years. 55 00:03:06,953 --> 00:03:10,490 The center right and center left parties are gone. 56 00:03:10,490 --> 00:03:13,293 Same thing happened in England with Brexit. 57 00:03:13,293 --> 00:03:16,429 Same thing's happening in other European countries. 58 00:03:16,429 --> 00:03:21,350 We're seeing the phenomenon all over the Western world in which 59 00:03:21,350 --> 00:03:26,371 the centrist-- center left, center right-- institutions 60 00:03:26,371 --> 00:03:28,474 are under attack. 61 00:03:28,474 --> 00:03:30,410 People are angry about them. 62 00:03:30,410 --> 00:03:31,444 They hate them. 63 00:03:31,444 --> 00:03:33,713 They think they're not working for us. 64 00:03:33,713 --> 00:03:35,248 And they're right. 65 00:03:35,248 --> 00:03:39,152 That's the effect of the neoliberal programs. 66 00:03:39,152 --> 00:03:43,555 We're all subjected to the same socioeconomic programs. 67 00:03:43,555 --> 00:03:46,526 They've had a similar effect everywhere. 68 00:03:46,526 --> 00:03:50,563 They've led to stagnation, decline, 69 00:03:50,563 --> 00:03:57,070 undermining of public services, inability-- 70 00:03:57,070 --> 00:04:01,107 Reagan's slogan, the state is the problem, not the solution. 71 00:04:01,107 --> 00:04:05,011 Let's turn it over to private tyrannies, which make it worse. 72 00:04:05,011 --> 00:04:06,512 That's happening. 73 00:04:06,512 --> 00:04:09,315 Bits and pieces of that are happening everywhere. 74 00:04:09,315 --> 00:04:10,917 So it happened in the United States 75 00:04:10,917 --> 00:04:13,086 in its own particular way. 76 00:04:13,086 --> 00:04:16,522 But notice that it's two directions. 77 00:04:16,522 --> 00:04:18,992 It's Sanders and Trump. 78 00:04:18,992 --> 00:04:20,959 And I think in many ways, they're 79 00:04:20,959 --> 00:04:23,363 appealing to the same sentiments. 80 00:04:23,363 --> 00:04:25,765 And they could even converge. 81 00:04:25,765 --> 00:04:31,271 A lot of the pop-- if you look at what people believe, 82 00:04:31,271 --> 00:04:35,174 the policies that they favor. 83 00:04:35,174 --> 00:04:37,110 A lot of it's shared. 84 00:04:37,110 --> 00:04:40,847 So for example, across the population, 85 00:04:40,847 --> 00:04:43,216 all the way over to the Tea Party, 86 00:04:43,216 --> 00:04:47,987 people think there ought to be higher taxes on the rich. 87 00:04:47,987 --> 00:04:50,623 Probably a majority of the population 88 00:04:50,623 --> 00:04:54,327 thinks there ought to be national health care. 89 00:04:54,327 --> 00:04:58,398 In fact, the support for nationally guaranteed health 90 00:04:58,398 --> 00:05:01,701 care has been so high over the years, 91 00:05:01,701 --> 00:05:05,371 that sometimes it's almost hard to believe. 92 00:05:05,371 --> 00:05:10,476 So in the late Reagan years, for example, about 70% 93 00:05:10,476 --> 00:05:15,181 of the population thought that guaranteed national health care 94 00:05:15,181 --> 00:05:17,950 ought to be in the Constitution because it's 95 00:05:17,950 --> 00:05:20,353 such an obvious demand. 96 00:05:20,353 --> 00:05:22,955 About 40% of the population thought it already 97 00:05:22,955 --> 00:05:25,091 was in the Constitution. 98 00:05:25,091 --> 00:05:27,160 Nobody knows what's in the Constitution. 99 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,330 Just everything good must be in the Constitution. 100 00:05:30,330 --> 00:05:34,067 Since this is so obviously good, it must be in the Constitution. 101 00:05:34,067 --> 00:05:37,470 And right at the present, the most recent polls 102 00:05:37,470 --> 00:05:42,175 show somewhat over 50% supporting national health 103 00:05:42,175 --> 00:05:43,543 care. 104 00:05:43,543 --> 00:05:47,580 When Obama's Affordable Care Act was being pushed through, 105 00:05:47,580 --> 00:05:53,319 at first one of the proposals, one of the parts of it, 106 00:05:53,319 --> 00:05:55,922 was what was called a public option, which 107 00:05:55,922 --> 00:05:58,558 means you could choose if you wanted 108 00:05:58,558 --> 00:06:02,695 to be part of a government health care program. 109 00:06:02,695 --> 00:06:05,798 About two thirds of the population favored that, 110 00:06:05,798 --> 00:06:09,335 but it was just thrown out without discussion. 111 00:06:09,335 --> 00:06:12,238 And in fact, if you go case by case, 112 00:06:12,238 --> 00:06:15,942 there's a lot of similarity in the attitudes 113 00:06:15,942 --> 00:06:18,344 about social/political issues. 114 00:06:18,344 --> 00:06:21,714 Not necessarily cultural issues, but social/political issues 115 00:06:21,714 --> 00:06:24,684 among parts of the population that appear 116 00:06:24,684 --> 00:06:27,520 to be extremely polarized. 117 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:28,855 It's very interesting. 118 00:06:28,855 --> 00:06:33,899 In England right now, if you followed it, 119 00:06:33,899 --> 00:06:38,678 Jeremy Corbyn, who's kind of a-- a little bit like Sanders, 120 00:06:38,678 --> 00:06:42,305 is bitterly attacked by the media, including 121 00:06:42,305 --> 00:06:45,271 the liberal media, like The Guardian 122 00:06:45,271 --> 00:06:47,774 and by the parliamentary labor party. 123 00:06:47,774 --> 00:06:55,348 Meaning the guys who sort of-- the elites who run the party. 124 00:06:55,348 --> 00:06:56,710 They just came out with a-- 125 00:06:56,710 --> 00:06:58,751 I happened to be in England a couple of days ago, 126 00:06:58,751 --> 00:07:01,220 so I was reading the British press. 127 00:07:01,220 --> 00:07:03,823 They just came out with-- the labor party-- 128 00:07:03,823 --> 00:07:06,339 with their program, which was just 129 00:07:06,339 --> 00:07:10,196 lambasted by the media-- crazy, lunatic, insane. 130 00:07:10,196 --> 00:07:12,131 It will destroy the labor party. 131 00:07:12,131 --> 00:07:16,636 At the same time, polls came out asking people 132 00:07:16,636 --> 00:07:20,940 about the components of the program. 133 00:07:20,940 --> 00:07:23,176 They're all very popular. 134 00:07:23,176 --> 00:07:26,679 Very strong support among the population for the elements 135 00:07:26,679 --> 00:07:27,880 of the program. 136 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:32,718 But attack on the party that's proposing them. 137 00:07:32,718 --> 00:07:36,689 And in particular, on Corbyn. 138 00:07:36,689 --> 00:07:41,360 Serious activism and organizing could overcome this. 139 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,997 I mean, you're fighting elite elements 140 00:07:44,997 --> 00:07:51,003 who have their own image of the way they want society to go. 141 00:07:51,003 --> 00:07:55,341 And in fact, there's quite a lot of interesting things going on. 142 00:07:55,341 --> 00:07:59,145 A lot of it is stuff that you guys might be interested in. 143 00:07:59,145 --> 00:08:01,347 It has to do with data harvesting. 144 00:08:01,347 --> 00:08:05,952 There's a company called Cambridge Analytics, I think, 145 00:08:05,952 --> 00:08:12,024 which is run by some ultra-right billionaires. 146 00:08:12,024 --> 00:08:14,861 Peter Thiel, the guy who owns PayPal 147 00:08:14,861 --> 00:08:17,330 and a bunch of other things. 148 00:08:17,330 --> 00:08:21,067 Robert Mercer, who's a big hedge fund manager, 149 00:08:21,067 --> 00:08:24,103 multi-billionaire, a couple of others. 150 00:08:24,103 --> 00:08:26,522 What they've been doing-- and this essentially 151 00:08:26,522 --> 00:08:31,610 gave the election to Trump-- is extremely careful data 152 00:08:31,610 --> 00:08:32,477 analysis. 153 00:08:32,477 --> 00:08:34,981 There's a ton of data now from Facebook 154 00:08:34,981 --> 00:08:38,518 and other things about people's personal preferences 155 00:08:38,518 --> 00:08:44,857 and attitudes and feelings. 156 00:08:44,857 --> 00:08:48,194 Are you depressed, all kinds of things. 157 00:08:48,194 --> 00:08:53,065 And what they're doing is looking carefully at this data 158 00:08:53,065 --> 00:08:55,368 and analyzing it to see if you can 159 00:08:55,368 --> 00:09:02,174 find small numbers of people in particular areas who 160 00:09:02,174 --> 00:09:06,512 are vulnerable to one or another form of manipulation. 161 00:09:06,512 --> 00:09:09,081 And what they're doing is trying to say, look. 162 00:09:09,081 --> 00:09:11,651 If they kind of tend to be liberal, 163 00:09:11,651 --> 00:09:14,120 try to get them to get so disillusioned 164 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:15,821 that they won't vote. 165 00:09:15,821 --> 00:09:18,891 And if they tend to be, say, traditionally conservative, 166 00:09:18,891 --> 00:09:24,941 maybe religious or whatever, try to get them to-- reach them 167 00:09:24,941 --> 00:09:27,439 individually in ways which will increase 168 00:09:27,439 --> 00:09:30,503 the probability they'll vote for the right wing. 169 00:09:30,503 --> 00:09:33,739 This has small effects, but the elections 170 00:09:33,739 --> 00:09:37,944 are won on very small effects. 171 00:09:37,944 --> 00:09:40,613 As you know, Trump lost the popular vote 172 00:09:40,613 --> 00:09:41,881 by a couple of million. 173 00:09:41,881 --> 00:09:45,818 But in particular counties that made the difference, 174 00:09:45,818 --> 00:09:49,355 a couple of 100,000 votes shifted the election. 175 00:09:49,355 --> 00:09:51,223 In England, Brexit was the same. 176 00:09:51,223 --> 00:09:55,294 They estimate about maybe 600,000 votes. 177 00:09:55,294 --> 00:09:56,963 The whole country switched. 178 00:09:56,963 --> 00:10:01,968 Now, these companies using a lot of complicated data processing 179 00:10:01,968 --> 00:10:05,271 and statistics, and so on, are working on ways 180 00:10:05,271 --> 00:10:08,608 to try to control the electoral process. 181 00:10:08,608 --> 00:10:11,110 I mean, this is way more important than any 182 00:10:11,110 --> 00:10:13,846 of the nonsense about the Russian hacking. 183 00:10:13,846 --> 00:10:15,615 That's all garbage. 184 00:10:15,615 --> 00:10:18,117 But this stuff is real. 185 00:10:18,117 --> 00:10:21,921 And it's right in front of our eyes. 186 00:10:21,921 --> 00:10:24,323 It's the people we know. 187 00:10:24,323 --> 00:10:27,760 MIT students going off to work on these things. 188 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:31,430 And it has a big effect on controlling 189 00:10:31,430 --> 00:10:35,001 formal democratic systems. 190 00:10:35,001 --> 00:10:36,335 This is Steve Bannon. 191 00:10:36,335 --> 00:10:41,140 This is his image of how you control the world, you know? 192 00:10:41,140 --> 00:10:43,142 These are people who are influential. 193 00:10:43,142 --> 00:10:45,111 They have tons of money. 194 00:10:45,111 --> 00:10:46,479 Deeply reactionary. 195 00:10:46,479 --> 00:10:52,485 And they want to use modern data processing. 196 00:10:52,485 --> 00:10:56,255 You know, big data, statistical analysis, and so on, 197 00:10:56,255 --> 00:11:00,426 to see if you can just find ways of swinging elections 198 00:11:00,426 --> 00:11:04,530 by going after individual vulnerabilities using 199 00:11:04,530 --> 00:11:09,235 the massive data that people provide through Google 200 00:11:09,235 --> 00:11:12,738 and Facebook, and all of this stuff. 201 00:11:12,738 --> 00:11:16,075 Google and the rest of them use it for advertisers, 202 00:11:16,075 --> 00:11:20,913 so that advertisers can go after you individually and say-- 203 00:11:20,913 --> 00:11:23,954 you try to get a book on Amazon and they suggest 204 00:11:23,954 --> 00:11:26,168 10 other books you ought to buy because they've 205 00:11:26,168 --> 00:11:28,726 got so much information on you that they think, 206 00:11:28,726 --> 00:11:31,957 maybe I can sort of sell this one. 207 00:11:31,957 --> 00:11:33,359 That's going on all the time. 208 00:11:33,359 --> 00:11:36,195 But here, it's right in the middle of a political system. 209 00:11:36,195 --> 00:11:38,664 And it's really significant. 210 00:11:38,664 --> 00:11:43,169 Quite unlike the Russian hacking story, this is real. 211 00:11:43,169 --> 00:11:45,137 And it's not very far from us. 212 00:11:45,137 --> 00:11:49,475 In fact, it's happening right here. 213 00:11:49,475 --> 00:11:52,344 There are things that can be done about that. 214 00:11:52,344 --> 00:11:57,049 Like exposing it for one thing. 215 00:11:57,049 --> 00:11:59,685 These should be live issues, I think, amongst students. 216 00:11:59,685 --> 00:12:03,989 Do we want to devote our lives to destroying democracy? 217 00:12:03,989 --> 00:12:05,239 Maybe.