1 00:00:04,500 --> 00:00:07,240 In this video, we're going to explore our linear optimization 2 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:08,710 model further. 3 00:00:08,710 --> 00:00:11,050 We're going to use it to answer some "what if" questions 4 00:00:11,050 --> 00:00:13,930 and to conduct some sensitivity analysis. 5 00:00:13,930 --> 00:00:15,690 So here, we have a spreadsheet that 6 00:00:15,690 --> 00:00:17,890 is formatted very similarly to the spreadsheets 7 00:00:17,890 --> 00:00:20,460 that we've used in Video 5 and Video 6. 8 00:00:20,460 --> 00:00:22,840 So we have the data up here, we have the price-per-click, 9 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,160 the click-through-rate, the average price per display, 10 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,640 the budgets, the query estimates. 11 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,310 Below those, we have the variables. 12 00:00:29,310 --> 00:00:30,730 So we have the cells corresponding 13 00:00:30,730 --> 00:00:32,110 to the decision variables. 14 00:00:32,110 --> 00:00:34,410 We have the cell corresponding to the objective. 15 00:00:34,410 --> 00:00:36,130 And to the right of these, we have 16 00:00:36,130 --> 00:00:39,670 cells that contain the values of the decision variables 17 00:00:39,670 --> 00:00:42,810 and a cell that contains the value of the revenue 18 00:00:42,810 --> 00:00:45,920 from our original solution from Video 5. 19 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,470 So what we're going to do is, we're going to change our data, 20 00:00:48,470 --> 00:00:50,490 and we're going to see how the solution changes 21 00:00:50,490 --> 00:00:53,170 and how the objective value changes and compare it 22 00:00:53,170 --> 00:00:55,130 to our original solution. 23 00:00:55,130 --> 00:00:58,150 So as one of the questions that we might consider, let's 24 00:00:58,150 --> 00:01:00,080 consider the following question. 25 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,390 What would happen if the click-through-rate of AT&T with 26 00:01:03,390 --> 00:01:08,100 query one increased from 0.10 to 0.5? 27 00:01:08,100 --> 00:01:09,850 So to answer this question, let's crawl up 28 00:01:09,850 --> 00:01:13,720 in the spreadsheet until we hit the click-through-rate. 29 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:15,350 And let's change the click-through-rate 30 00:01:15,350 --> 00:01:17,960 from 0.1 to 0.5. 31 00:01:17,960 --> 00:01:19,870 Now, if we do this, you may have noticed 32 00:01:19,870 --> 00:01:23,000 that the average price per display for AT&T in query one 33 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,000 also changed. 34 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,470 So of course, this makes sense, because the average price 35 00:01:26,470 --> 00:01:28,760 per display is just the click-through-rate multiplied 36 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:30,210 by the price-per-click. 37 00:01:30,210 --> 00:01:32,979 And here, the way we've set up the spreadsheet 38 00:01:32,979 --> 00:01:35,410 is so that these cells are exactly 39 00:01:35,410 --> 00:01:38,490 the product of the corresponding cells. 40 00:01:38,490 --> 00:01:40,920 So the cells that correspond to the click-through-rate 41 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:45,140 and the price-per-click for that respective query and advertiser 42 00:01:45,140 --> 00:01:46,759 combination. 43 00:01:46,759 --> 00:01:50,500 So our average price per display has changed appropriately. 44 00:01:50,500 --> 00:01:53,960 And so now, we just scroll down until we see our variables 45 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:55,820 and we see our objective. 46 00:01:55,820 --> 00:01:58,280 And let's click on Tools. 47 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,370 Let's open up the Solver. 48 00:02:00,370 --> 00:02:03,900 And we have the Solver configured the exact same way 49 00:02:03,900 --> 00:02:04,530 from last time. 50 00:02:04,530 --> 00:02:06,530 So we don't need to do anything here. 51 00:02:06,530 --> 00:02:08,250 And so now, all we have to do is just 52 00:02:08,250 --> 00:02:13,150 hit Solve and click on Keep Result, and voila. 53 00:02:13,150 --> 00:02:15,290 We have a new solution. 54 00:02:15,290 --> 00:02:17,540 So now, several things have changed with the solution, 55 00:02:17,540 --> 00:02:19,390 if you can see. 56 00:02:19,390 --> 00:02:22,980 So the first thing is that the allocations have changed. 57 00:02:22,980 --> 00:02:27,970 So for instance, we allocate query one and AT&T 68 times. 58 00:02:27,970 --> 00:02:31,950 So we decide to show AT&T's ad with query one 68 times, 59 00:02:31,950 --> 00:02:33,700 as opposed to the original solution, where 60 00:02:33,700 --> 00:02:35,630 we did it 40 times. 61 00:02:35,630 --> 00:02:39,829 And we can also see that AT&T is never shown in query two 62 00:02:39,829 --> 00:02:42,040 or query three in our new solution, 63 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,030 whereas before, it was shown 40 times for query two and 80 64 00:02:45,030 --> 00:02:47,550 times for query three. 65 00:02:47,550 --> 00:02:50,980 Similarly, we show T-Mobile 72 times with query one, 66 00:02:50,980 --> 00:02:53,720 whereas before, we only showed it 100 times. 67 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,100 And we also showed T-Mobile with query three 68 00:02:56,100 --> 00:02:59,600 14 times, whereas before, we didn't show it 69 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:01,300 at all with query three. 70 00:03:01,300 --> 00:03:04,750 And Verizon's allocations say the same as before. 71 00:03:04,750 --> 00:03:06,800 In terms of the revenue, our revenue 72 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:10,750 has gone up slightly from $428 in the original solution 73 00:03:10,750 --> 00:03:13,890 to $430 in the new solution. 74 00:03:13,890 --> 00:03:16,220 Now, this may seem like a small amount. 75 00:03:16,220 --> 00:03:19,660 But actually, this is the most that we can hope to achieve. 76 00:03:19,660 --> 00:03:21,770 And the reason for this is, if we scroll down, 77 00:03:21,770 --> 00:03:24,860 if we look at our budgets, so the budget for AT&T 78 00:03:24,860 --> 00:03:30,280 is 170, for T-Mobile, 100, and for Verizon, it's 160. 79 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,340 If we add up these values, you can 80 00:03:32,340 --> 00:03:35,430 see that actually the sum of these values is 430. 81 00:03:35,430 --> 00:03:37,220 Now, this isn't a coincidence. 82 00:03:37,220 --> 00:03:39,240 In fact, if you think about it, this 83 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:43,650 makes sense, because what Google earns from each advertiser 84 00:03:43,650 --> 00:03:46,440 is exactly how much that advertiser spends. 85 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,850 And if the most that each advertiser spends 86 00:03:48,850 --> 00:03:51,710 is that advertiser's budget, then the most 87 00:03:51,710 --> 00:03:54,000 that Google could hope to earn is in fact 88 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:55,600 the sum of these budgets. 89 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,850 So in fact, we are attaining the highest possible revenue 90 00:03:58,850 --> 00:04:02,540 that we can hope to attain in this case. 91 00:04:02,540 --> 00:04:04,480 So that was rather interesting. 92 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,330 And now, let's change back the click-through-rate 93 00:04:07,330 --> 00:04:10,860 from 0.5 back to the original value of 0.1. 94 00:04:10,860 --> 00:04:12,860 And let's answer another question. 95 00:04:12,860 --> 00:04:15,620 So the question that we'd now like to answer 96 00:04:15,620 --> 00:04:18,910 is, what would happen if AT&T's budget increased 97 00:04:18,910 --> 00:04:20,290 from 170 to 200? 98 00:04:20,290 --> 00:04:23,820 So for example, AT&T calls us and tells us that actually they 99 00:04:23,820 --> 00:04:26,040 can afford more advertisements. 100 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,130 So how would that change our solution? 101 00:04:28,130 --> 00:04:32,740 Well, in this case, let's just find AT&T's budget data. 102 00:04:32,740 --> 00:04:35,260 So in this case, it is the cell here. 103 00:04:35,260 --> 00:04:39,290 And let's change it from 170 to 200. 104 00:04:39,290 --> 00:04:43,450 Now, let's scroll down to our variables and our objective. 105 00:04:43,450 --> 00:04:45,500 And let's just set them back to zero. 106 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,700 And now, let's go to Tools again, let's open up 107 00:04:50,700 --> 00:04:56,460 the Solver, and let's hit Solve. 108 00:04:56,460 --> 00:04:59,270 We get 428, which is actually the same objective 109 00:04:59,270 --> 00:05:00,810 that we got from before. 110 00:05:00,810 --> 00:05:02,510 And let's just click on Keep Result 111 00:05:02,510 --> 00:05:05,790 and take a look at the solution. 112 00:05:05,790 --> 00:05:09,170 Now, interestingly, this new solution 113 00:05:09,170 --> 00:05:12,590 is actually exactly the same as the old solution. 114 00:05:12,590 --> 00:05:15,790 So what happened here? 115 00:05:15,790 --> 00:05:18,640 Why didn't this change anything? 116 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,930 Well, actually, if you recall from the previous solution, 117 00:05:21,930 --> 00:05:23,600 in the previous solution, we actually 118 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,210 only used $168 of AT&T's budget. 119 00:05:27,210 --> 00:05:31,820 And in the previous solution, AT&T's budget was $170. 120 00:05:31,820 --> 00:05:34,120 So in the previous solution, we didn't actually 121 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,740 use up all of AT&T's budget. 122 00:05:36,740 --> 00:05:38,980 And since this constraint was not binding, 123 00:05:38,980 --> 00:05:42,620 then increasing this constraint beyond 170-- 124 00:05:42,620 --> 00:05:46,100 so increasing the budget from 170 to 200-- 125 00:05:46,100 --> 00:05:49,290 won't actually have an effect on the solution. 126 00:05:49,290 --> 00:05:51,170 So this is why the solution didn't change. 127 00:05:51,170 --> 00:05:52,970 And in fact, in this case, we didn't really 128 00:05:52,970 --> 00:05:56,610 need to change the data and to solve the problem again, 129 00:05:56,610 --> 00:05:58,390 we could've deduced this from actually 130 00:05:58,390 --> 00:06:01,110 looking at the budget values. 131 00:06:01,110 --> 00:06:03,260 So these are examples of two questions 132 00:06:03,260 --> 00:06:06,000 that we might consider in this setting. 133 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:07,550 And so this concludes our exploration 134 00:06:07,550 --> 00:06:10,190 of this problem in LibreOffice. 135 00:06:10,190 --> 00:06:13,000 In the next video, we'll return to the slides, 136 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:14,460 and we'll discuss some ways that we 137 00:06:14,460 --> 00:06:17,310 can extend the problem beyond the formulation 138 00:06:17,310 --> 00:06:19,220 that we've been thinking about here. 139 00:06:19,220 --> 00:06:22,080 And we'll also summarize what we've discussed so far. 140 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:24,660 So see you in PowerPoint.