1 00:00:09,500 --> 00:00:13,130 In this lecture, we will discuss how visualization 2 00:00:13,130 --> 00:00:16,110 can offer insights in the area of policing 3 00:00:16,110 --> 00:00:18,740 in urban environments. 4 00:00:18,740 --> 00:00:20,780 The explosion of computerized data 5 00:00:20,780 --> 00:00:24,130 affects all parts of society, including policing. 6 00:00:24,130 --> 00:00:26,930 In the past, human judgment and experience 7 00:00:26,930 --> 00:00:31,510 was the only tool in identifying patterns in criminal behavior. 8 00:00:31,510 --> 00:00:34,450 Police forces around the United States and the world 9 00:00:34,450 --> 00:00:37,390 are augmenting human judgment with analytics. 10 00:00:37,390 --> 00:00:39,400 Los Angeles police worked for months 11 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:41,590 to catch Manson and his followers. 12 00:00:41,590 --> 00:00:45,480 These days the LAPD is on an offensive to prevent crime. 13 00:00:45,480 --> 00:00:47,950 Its latest weapon is a computer program 14 00:00:47,950 --> 00:00:50,940 that can actually predict where crimes will happen. 15 00:00:50,940 --> 00:00:52,700 And justice correspondent Bob Orr 16 00:00:52,700 --> 00:00:55,840 has a first look at the results. 17 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,130 In the Foothill Division north of downtown Los Angeles, 18 00:00:59,130 --> 00:01:00,590 police are patrolling the largely 19 00:01:00,590 --> 00:01:04,150 working-class neighborhoods with specially marked maps. 20 00:01:04,150 --> 00:01:06,550 The small red squares are hot spots, 21 00:01:06,550 --> 00:01:10,080 where computers project property crimes are most likely. 22 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,330 It's called predictive policing. 23 00:01:12,330 --> 00:01:15,010 A program which Captain Sean Malinowski says 24 00:01:15,010 --> 00:01:18,500 puts officers on the scene before crimes occur. 25 00:01:18,500 --> 00:01:23,350 65% of our crimes are burglary, grand theft auto, 26 00:01:23,350 --> 00:01:24,980 and burglary for motor vehicle. 27 00:01:24,980 --> 00:01:26,810 And that's what these boxes represent. 28 00:01:26,810 --> 00:01:29,840 That's a pretty small box, 500 feet by 500 feet. 29 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,410 Yes, it is a small area. 30 00:01:32,410 --> 00:01:34,539 These crime prediction boxes come 31 00:01:34,539 --> 00:01:37,390 from the same kind of mathematical calculation used 32 00:01:37,390 --> 00:01:40,300 to predict earthquakes and aftershocks. 33 00:01:40,300 --> 00:01:44,030 By analyzing the times, dates, and places of recent crimes 34 00:01:44,030 --> 00:01:48,200 computers project hot spots for burglaries, break-ins, and car 35 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:49,490 thefts. 36 00:01:49,490 --> 00:01:51,770 LA's Police Chief Charlie Beck says 37 00:01:51,770 --> 00:01:54,900 increasing police patrols inside those boxes 38 00:01:54,900 --> 00:01:56,920 denies criminals opportunity. 39 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,200 The real measure of this is not how many people you catch, 40 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,200 it's how much crime you prevent. 41 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:03,600 I love catching people. 42 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:04,800 It's what I live for. 43 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:09,100 But, what I'd rather do is live in a place and work in a place 44 00:02:09,100 --> 00:02:10,389 where crime didn't happen. 45 00:02:10,389 --> 00:02:14,260 Chief Beck, a 35-year veteran and the father of two LAPD 46 00:02:14,260 --> 00:02:16,829 officers, has faced some skepticism 47 00:02:16,829 --> 00:02:19,079 in selling the predictive concept. 48 00:02:19,079 --> 00:02:19,980 You're a street cop. 49 00:02:19,980 --> 00:02:21,120 I am. 50 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,950 So somebody comes to you with a computer program that says, 51 00:02:23,950 --> 00:02:25,700 here we're going to predict the future, 52 00:02:25,700 --> 00:02:28,079 we're going to tell you where crime is going to occur. 53 00:02:28,079 --> 00:02:29,510 Aren't some of the guys on the street just going 54 00:02:29,510 --> 00:02:31,420 to roll their eyes and say, oh come on? 55 00:02:31,420 --> 00:02:32,170 Well, of course. 56 00:02:32,170 --> 00:02:33,920 I mean, that's the nature of human beings. 57 00:02:33,920 --> 00:02:36,350 I mean everybody thinks that they do their profession as 58 00:02:36,350 --> 00:02:38,850 well as it can be done already, so they don't need any help. 59 00:02:38,850 --> 00:02:41,240 If this old street cop can change the way 60 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,230 that he thinks about this stuff, then I 61 00:02:43,230 --> 00:02:46,460 know that my kids can do the same. 62 00:02:46,460 --> 00:02:49,860 The LAPD began testing the predictive policing model here 63 00:02:49,860 --> 00:02:52,090 in the Foothill Division in November, 64 00:02:52,090 --> 00:02:54,579 and the early results are encouraging. 65 00:02:54,579 --> 00:03:01,170 Burglaries are down 33%, and violent crime is also down 21%. 66 00:03:01,170 --> 00:03:03,920 That success will allow Beck to expand the program 67 00:03:03,920 --> 00:03:07,740 to other parts of the city and leverage limited resources. 68 00:03:07,740 --> 00:03:09,080 I'm not going to get more money. 69 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:10,820 I'm not going to get more cops. 70 00:03:10,820 --> 00:03:14,100 But I have to be better at using what I have, 71 00:03:14,100 --> 00:03:16,260 and that's what predictive policing is about. 72 00:03:16,260 --> 00:03:19,400 It's also about driving the crime rate lower. 73 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,060 Crime here has dropped nine straight years. 74 00:03:22,060 --> 00:03:26,380 With these small red boxes, LA is aiming for 10. 75 00:03:26,380 --> 00:03:29,800 Bob Orr, CBS News, Los Angeles. 76 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,590 The Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck 77 00:03:32,590 --> 00:03:36,310 writes, "I'm not going to get more money. 78 00:03:36,310 --> 00:03:38,260 I'm not going to get more cops. 79 00:03:38,260 --> 00:03:41,860 I have to be better at using what I have, 80 00:03:41,860 --> 00:03:44,360 and that's what predictive policing is about. 81 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,200 If this old street cop can change the way 82 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:49,579 that he thinks about this stuff, then I 83 00:03:49,579 --> 00:03:54,450 know that my officers can do the same." 84 00:03:54,450 --> 00:03:57,050 Let me comment on the role of analytics. 85 00:03:57,050 --> 00:03:59,600 The analytical tools you have learned in this class 86 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:02,780 can be used to make these predictive policing models 87 00:04:02,780 --> 00:04:03,700 possible. 88 00:04:03,700 --> 00:04:06,820 However, communicating the results of these models 89 00:04:06,820 --> 00:04:07,970 is critical. 90 00:04:07,970 --> 00:04:10,590 A linear regression output table will not 91 00:04:10,590 --> 00:04:14,500 be of use to a police person on patrol. 92 00:04:14,500 --> 00:04:17,459 Visualization bridges the gap between the analytics 93 00:04:17,459 --> 00:04:19,380 and the end user.