1 00:00:00,150 --> 00:00:02,550 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:02,550 --> 00:00:04,090 Commons license. 3 00:00:04,090 --> 00:00:06,390 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 4 00:00:06,390 --> 00:00:10,780 continue to offer high quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:10,780 --> 00:00:13,380 To make a donation or view additional materials 6 00:00:13,380 --> 00:00:17,340 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 7 00:00:17,340 --> 00:00:18,510 at ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:21,327 --> 00:00:21,910 PROFESSOR: OK. 9 00:00:21,910 --> 00:00:22,785 So let's get started. 10 00:00:22,785 --> 00:00:24,340 So before I get into any poker I want 11 00:00:24,340 --> 00:00:26,890 to talk about the mentality I want everyone 12 00:00:26,890 --> 00:00:29,830 to try to have when analyzing poker in this class. 13 00:00:29,830 --> 00:00:31,900 So I call it the decision mentality. 14 00:00:31,900 --> 00:00:34,070 I'm going to start with a story. 15 00:00:34,070 --> 00:00:36,800 Who here has heard of credit card roulette? 16 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,190 It's like a game you play at the end of a guy going 17 00:00:39,190 --> 00:00:40,090 to restaurants. 18 00:00:40,090 --> 00:00:41,910 So what happens is poker players, 19 00:00:41,910 --> 00:00:44,242 they're going to split the bill by instead 20 00:00:44,242 --> 00:00:46,450 of everyone paying their own bill, which is annoying. 21 00:00:46,450 --> 00:00:48,231 You have to keep track. 22 00:00:48,231 --> 00:00:50,480 You might have to Venmo people after the exact amount. 23 00:00:50,480 --> 00:00:52,810 And sometimes the waiter or waitress 24 00:00:52,810 --> 00:00:55,040 doesn't want to split the bill per person. 25 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,180 So poker players get around this by just picking one person 26 00:00:58,180 --> 00:00:59,800 at random to pay the bill. 27 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:01,240 And we like making this exciting. 28 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,930 So what we do is we ask everyone to put in their credit cards. 29 00:01:04,930 --> 00:01:08,060 And then we pull out the credit cards one at a time. 30 00:01:08,060 --> 00:01:10,450 And if your credit card is pulled out then you're safe. 31 00:01:10,450 --> 00:01:14,630 And the last person in has to pay for the whole table. 32 00:01:14,630 --> 00:01:17,619 So it's a pretty fun game. 33 00:01:17,619 --> 00:01:18,910 Yeah, I think I'm pretty lucky. 34 00:01:18,910 --> 00:01:20,970 The biggest one I lost was in Hong Kong. 35 00:01:20,970 --> 00:01:23,980 I once had to pay around 1,200 USD. 36 00:01:23,980 --> 00:01:25,720 It was a pretty big table. 37 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:27,820 But overall I'm pretty good at this game. 38 00:01:27,820 --> 00:01:29,180 It's a game of skill for sure. 39 00:01:33,090 --> 00:01:35,320 But sometimes this results in some funny stories 40 00:01:35,320 --> 00:01:36,820 with non poker players. 41 00:01:36,820 --> 00:01:39,860 So this is something that happened to some poker players. 42 00:01:39,860 --> 00:01:43,600 So poker pro Matt, he goes to dinner with poker pro Steven. 43 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,350 And that brings Emily, who's a close friend whom he also 44 00:01:46,350 --> 00:01:47,980 has a romantic interest in. 45 00:01:47,980 --> 00:01:49,990 So when the bill comes Matt's like OK, 46 00:01:49,990 --> 00:01:51,460 I'm going to pay for it Emily. 47 00:01:51,460 --> 00:01:52,960 So he puts in two credit cards. 48 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,110 He's like the second credit card is for Steven-- is for Emily. 49 00:01:56,110 --> 00:01:57,640 And then Steven pays for himself. 50 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,920 So Stephen puts in one credit card. 51 00:01:59,920 --> 00:02:01,900 So they play credit card roulette. 52 00:02:01,900 --> 00:02:04,330 And then Matt, being a very lucky guy, 53 00:02:04,330 --> 00:02:06,700 pulls out both of his credit cards before Steven's. 54 00:02:06,700 --> 00:02:10,690 And Steven ends up paying for all three of them. 55 00:02:10,690 --> 00:02:13,640 So now the question is, who should Emily thank. 56 00:02:13,640 --> 00:02:16,900 So who would you thank if you were in Emily's shoes? 57 00:02:20,090 --> 00:02:23,112 Does anyone want to say to thank Steven? 58 00:02:23,112 --> 00:02:23,792 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 59 00:02:23,792 --> 00:02:26,000 PROFESSOR: Because Steven actually paid for the meal. 60 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,690 So I think it's a totally reasonable thing 61 00:02:28,690 --> 00:02:31,440 to do as a reasonable person to thank Steven who actually 62 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,016 had to pull out his wallet. 63 00:02:34,016 --> 00:02:35,390 So in this class we want everyone 64 00:02:35,390 --> 00:02:37,840 to think in terms of the expected results and not 65 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:38,980 actual results. 66 00:02:38,980 --> 00:02:42,190 So Emily should be thanking Matt because, on average, Matt 67 00:02:42,190 --> 00:02:43,540 put in the card for Emily. 68 00:02:43,540 --> 00:02:47,050 And on average Matt is going to be paying for Emily 69 00:02:47,050 --> 00:02:48,450 because Matt's going to be paying 70 00:02:48,450 --> 00:02:51,370 the one third of the time that Emily would be paying. 71 00:02:51,370 --> 00:02:54,370 But at the time, Emily thanked Steven for her meal 72 00:02:54,370 --> 00:02:56,670 and then didn't say anything to Matt. 73 00:02:56,670 --> 00:02:59,180 And then Matt was upset about it and told the entire poker 74 00:02:59,180 --> 00:02:59,680 community. 75 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:01,346 That's how I found out about this story. 76 00:03:03,490 --> 00:03:06,730 So we want to think about in terms of on average 77 00:03:06,730 --> 00:03:09,570 what your decision would have whether you 78 00:03:09,570 --> 00:03:12,430 would have made money in expectation or on average. 79 00:03:12,430 --> 00:03:14,350 So roughly, the law of large numbers 80 00:03:14,350 --> 00:03:16,680 says, over your lifetime, the amount 81 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:18,970 you end up paying for credit card roulette is 82 00:03:18,970 --> 00:03:21,310 the same as you would have paid from splitting the bill. 83 00:03:21,310 --> 00:03:22,602 So you know why split the bill? 84 00:03:22,602 --> 00:03:24,309 You might as well just save a lot of time 85 00:03:24,309 --> 00:03:26,280 by playing this fun game every single time. 86 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:27,900 And over your lifetime, the amount 87 00:03:27,900 --> 00:03:30,280 you pay in credit card roulette is roughly 88 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,750 going to be what you would have paid from splitting. 89 00:03:34,750 --> 00:03:37,120 So all randomness eventually averages out 90 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:38,560 to it's expected value. 91 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:40,750 That's what this is saying. 92 00:03:40,750 --> 00:03:42,520 So what does eventually mean? 93 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,434 So basically when we say a gamble is very risky 94 00:03:45,434 --> 00:03:47,350 I'm not mathematically defining anything here. 95 00:03:47,350 --> 00:03:50,350 But I just want to throw out some intuitive concepts. 96 00:03:50,350 --> 00:03:52,450 So a risky gamble is a gamble where 97 00:03:52,450 --> 00:03:56,470 it takes a long time to converge at your expectation. 98 00:03:56,470 --> 00:03:59,630 But the point is, no matter how risky it is, eventually 99 00:03:59,630 --> 00:04:01,060 it will get you. 100 00:04:01,060 --> 00:04:03,449 So there's a saying that death, taxes 101 00:04:03,449 --> 00:04:05,240 are the two things that eventually get you. 102 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,365 As poker players, we would like to think that three 103 00:04:07,365 --> 00:04:08,660 things eventually get you. 104 00:04:08,660 --> 00:04:11,420 It's death, taxes, and the law of large numbers 105 00:04:11,420 --> 00:04:14,260 will eventually-- you're going to reach your [INAUDIBLE].. 106 00:04:16,820 --> 00:04:18,930 So here's another hypothetical situation. 107 00:04:18,930 --> 00:04:21,310 So let's say you get off at the wrong bus stop 108 00:04:21,310 --> 00:04:22,781 because you were distracted. 109 00:04:22,781 --> 00:04:24,280 And then you were upset yourself you 110 00:04:24,280 --> 00:04:26,200 analyze how to not be distracted in the future 111 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:27,670 and get off at the right bus stop. 112 00:04:27,670 --> 00:04:30,520 But then after you get off at the wrong bus stop 113 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:32,560 you find $1,000 on the ground. 114 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:34,720 And then you immediately, you're no longer upset 115 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,550 and you marvel at your riches. 116 00:04:36,550 --> 00:04:39,280 So this is sort of an absurd story. 117 00:04:39,280 --> 00:04:44,100 But situations like this happen all the time in poker. 118 00:04:44,100 --> 00:04:45,640 You're going to make a bad decision 119 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:49,720 but bad decisions still get a good result 49% of the time. 120 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,700 And if you make the right decision 121 00:04:51,700 --> 00:04:54,830 you're still going to get a bad result 49% of the time. 122 00:04:54,830 --> 00:04:58,420 So it's very important to analyze your decisions 123 00:04:58,420 --> 00:05:02,780 without being biased by the actual outcome that occurred. 124 00:05:02,780 --> 00:05:04,510 So you really want to be obsessed 125 00:05:04,510 --> 00:05:08,140 with this self-improvement, analyzing your decisions. 126 00:05:08,140 --> 00:05:10,270 If you made $10,000 in a situation 127 00:05:10,270 --> 00:05:13,600 where you could have be $12,000 then that's not good enough. 128 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,430 So I want everybody to think in terms 129 00:05:15,430 --> 00:05:17,585 of what's the maximum you could of made 130 00:05:17,585 --> 00:05:19,960 and analyzing what's the best decision you could possibly 131 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,010 have made in every situation. 132 00:05:22,010 --> 00:05:25,819 And sometimes it's hard because if the result is exactly 133 00:05:25,819 --> 00:05:27,360 correlated with the decision then you 134 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:28,830 can just go back and look at the result 135 00:05:28,830 --> 00:05:30,900 and know whether you made a good decision or not. 136 00:05:30,900 --> 00:05:33,210 But that's why learning poker can sometimes 137 00:05:33,210 --> 00:05:36,570 be very, very hard because you don't have immediate feedback. 138 00:05:36,570 --> 00:05:40,100 You're not sure whether the decision you made 139 00:05:40,100 --> 00:05:45,060 is what caused you to make that money or you just got lucky. 140 00:05:45,060 --> 00:05:47,850 So with that being said, now let's 141 00:05:47,850 --> 00:05:50,880 talk about some ways to reason about poker hands. 142 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:55,380 So roughly there's three levels of reasoning of poker hands. 143 00:05:55,380 --> 00:05:58,650 Level one my hand versus your hand. 144 00:05:58,650 --> 00:06:02,640 But by this I mean, you can see what your cards are. 145 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,070 And you look into your opponents eyes 146 00:06:05,070 --> 00:06:09,210 and you say, OK, I can tell your cards must be pocket kings 147 00:06:09,210 --> 00:06:10,050 or whatever. 148 00:06:10,050 --> 00:06:11,880 Your hand must beat this other hand. 149 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,790 And you played your hand exactly against your opponent's 150 00:06:14,790 --> 00:06:17,990 specific hand because you have a soul read on them. 151 00:06:17,990 --> 00:06:21,570 So let's see the example of this. 152 00:06:21,570 --> 00:06:24,360 So we'll watch an episode of Poker After Dark here. 153 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,695 [VIDEO PLAYBACK] 154 00:06:26,695 --> 00:06:28,570 [MUSIC PLAYING] 155 00:06:28,570 --> 00:06:42,478 - Raise to 1,200. 156 00:06:42,478 --> 00:06:44,933 - I think you would call it this time, Patrick. 157 00:06:48,390 --> 00:06:49,930 - Button raises. 158 00:06:49,930 --> 00:06:50,854 Never anything. 159 00:06:50,854 --> 00:06:52,270 NARRATOR: Contrary to what Patrick 160 00:06:52,270 --> 00:06:55,780 might think Jennifer has a real hand and it just got better. 161 00:06:55,780 --> 00:06:57,340 She's flopped top set. 162 00:06:57,340 --> 00:07:00,390 Patrick flopped a pair of tens with a gutshot straight draw. 163 00:07:00,390 --> 00:07:01,544 - I've got two pair. 164 00:07:39,313 --> 00:07:39,813 - Check. 165 00:07:53,188 --> 00:07:53,729 - Full house. 166 00:08:01,710 --> 00:08:03,906 - I can't beat that. 167 00:08:03,906 --> 00:08:05,510 - I thought you had pocket kings. 168 00:08:10,052 --> 00:08:12,000 - I almost thought I had you. 169 00:08:16,383 --> 00:08:23,076 [END PLAYBACK] 170 00:08:23,076 --> 00:08:24,700 PROFESSOR: So yes, this is sort of well 171 00:08:24,700 --> 00:08:26,926 known poker term from way that in the day. 172 00:08:26,926 --> 00:08:28,300 If you're a Jennifer Tilly hand-- 173 00:08:28,300 --> 00:08:30,160 I'm sorry if I'm making fun of her-- 174 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:34,000 but basically she put her opponent on a specific hand. 175 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,039 She looked at Patrick and Antonius 176 00:08:36,039 --> 00:08:37,539 and had a feeling that he had pocket 177 00:08:37,539 --> 00:08:39,460 kings for some strange reason. 178 00:08:39,460 --> 00:08:42,720 And then what happened was, so she had pocket jacks here, 179 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:44,220 which is a really, really good hand. 180 00:08:44,220 --> 00:08:44,980 It's a full house. 181 00:08:44,980 --> 00:08:48,580 And she just checked the turn and checked the river 182 00:08:48,580 --> 00:08:50,860 instead of trying to get Patrick to put 183 00:08:50,860 --> 00:08:53,800 more money in because she was so certain Patrick 184 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:55,900 had pocket kings. 185 00:08:55,900 --> 00:08:57,640 Just mathematically speaking, out of all 186 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,040 the possible combinations of cards you have, 187 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:01,750 to put your opponent specifically 188 00:09:01,750 --> 00:09:05,810 on pocket kings in this example is basically unfounded. 189 00:09:05,810 --> 00:09:09,140 So this gets to level two reasoning. 190 00:09:09,140 --> 00:09:11,590 So level two reasoning is my hand 191 00:09:11,590 --> 00:09:14,560 versus your range of hands, versus your probability 192 00:09:14,560 --> 00:09:15,940 distribution of hands. 193 00:09:15,940 --> 00:09:18,730 And another name for this is exploitative play. 194 00:09:18,730 --> 00:09:20,211 So let's look at a different hand. 195 00:09:20,211 --> 00:09:21,835 And I'm going to show you how to reason 196 00:09:21,835 --> 00:09:27,074 about this hand using level two exploitative reasoning. 197 00:09:27,074 --> 00:09:28,990 So I'm not going to go through the whole hand. 198 00:09:28,990 --> 00:09:31,960 But this is actually a real hand I played in Macau five, 199 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:32,890 six years ago. 200 00:09:32,890 --> 00:09:37,400 So we get to the river and I had ace 10 in this situation. 201 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:41,020 So the pot is 21,000 roughly. 202 00:09:41,020 --> 00:09:44,220 And my opponent bets 8,000-- sorry, 203 00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:47,440 so the pot is 21,000 after my opponent bets 8,000. 204 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,740 So basically the pot was 13,000 and my opponent 205 00:09:50,740 --> 00:09:52,939 bet 8,000 making it 21,000. 206 00:09:52,939 --> 00:09:55,480 And I have to decide whether to call with a pretty good hand. 207 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:56,680 I have a pair of aces here. 208 00:09:56,680 --> 00:09:59,290 But I know my opponent is [? Rain ?] [? Kahn, ?] who is 209 00:09:59,290 --> 00:10:01,840 a very tight player and doesn't really like bluffing. 210 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,600 So I don't think he's really ever bluffing. 211 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,480 If I'm beating him here it's because he's 212 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,880 betting a hand that he thinks is good 213 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:14,320 but is actually worse than mine, like ace eight basically. 214 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:18,106 So I model my opponent's range as ace king through ace eight. 215 00:10:18,106 --> 00:10:19,980 I don't think he has something even stronger, 216 00:10:19,980 --> 00:10:21,896 like pocket nines because he would have raised 217 00:10:21,896 --> 00:10:25,870 more earlier in the hand. 218 00:10:25,870 --> 00:10:28,090 So let me run through this calculation 219 00:10:28,090 --> 00:10:30,890 slowly for those of you seeing pot odd for the first time. 220 00:10:30,890 --> 00:10:33,830 So here basically, I want to think of it like this. 221 00:10:33,830 --> 00:10:39,370 The pot, which includes the 8,000 he just put out, is 21. 222 00:10:39,370 --> 00:10:43,257 We're considering calling for 8,000 so if we lose, if we call 223 00:10:43,257 --> 00:10:45,340 and her turns up ace king, which is a better hand, 224 00:10:45,340 --> 00:10:49,090 then our net result from this decision is negative $8,000. 225 00:10:49,090 --> 00:10:51,880 If we win and we get our 8,000 back as well as the 21,000 226 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:56,470 in the pot, so we make, our net is plus 21,000. 227 00:10:56,470 --> 00:10:59,110 So therefore, our win to lose ratio 228 00:10:59,110 --> 00:11:01,720 needs to be at least 8,000 to 21,000 in order 229 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,460 for calling to be positive expectancy. 230 00:11:04,460 --> 00:11:06,645 So we'll do the exact calculation. 231 00:11:06,645 --> 00:11:08,020 I'll try to do it somewhat slowly 232 00:11:08,020 --> 00:11:10,390 to show an example of how to do this calculation. 233 00:11:10,390 --> 00:11:15,850 So essentially what I do is I count the combinations 234 00:11:15,850 --> 00:11:17,550 of each hand that exists. 235 00:11:17,550 --> 00:11:21,490 So ace king, there's eight combinations 236 00:11:21,490 --> 00:11:24,106 because there's two aces remaining that I haven't seen 237 00:11:24,106 --> 00:11:25,480 and there's four kings remaining. 238 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,740 So it's two times four, there's eight combinations. 239 00:11:27,740 --> 00:11:30,580 Same with ace queen, ace jack, and ace eight. 240 00:11:30,580 --> 00:11:33,400 Ace 10 and ace nine, there's only six combinations each 241 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,780 because I have the 10, which makes 242 00:11:35,780 --> 00:11:38,140 him having ace 10 less likely. 243 00:11:38,140 --> 00:11:40,360 And for ace nine there's a nine on the board. 244 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,870 So ace nine is also slightly less likely. 245 00:11:43,870 --> 00:11:45,640 So ace 10 we actually get half the pot. 246 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:49,930 So I'm just going to roughly make 247 00:11:49,930 --> 00:11:52,480 that equivalent to us winning three of those times 248 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,230 and losing three of those times, which 249 00:11:54,230 --> 00:11:56,600 is equivalent in expectation. 250 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:58,880 So basically, if you do this counting, 251 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,750 there's 33 combinations that beat us, 252 00:12:01,750 --> 00:12:03,850 there's 11 combinations that we beat. 253 00:12:03,850 --> 00:12:07,155 And so our equity is basically our probability 254 00:12:07,155 --> 00:12:09,280 of winning, which is equivalently only the fraction 255 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,380 of the pot that we own. 256 00:12:11,380 --> 00:12:14,110 So our equity in this case is 25%. 257 00:12:14,110 --> 00:12:18,190 And the pot odds are 21 to 8. 258 00:12:18,190 --> 00:12:22,650 So we need we basically 1 over 3.56. 259 00:12:22,650 --> 00:12:25,180 So 21 to 8 is 2.56 to 1. 260 00:12:25,180 --> 00:12:29,355 We need equity 1 over 3.56 to call, which is 28%, 261 00:12:29,355 --> 00:12:29,980 which we don't. 262 00:12:29,980 --> 00:12:30,670 So I folded. 263 00:12:37,670 --> 00:12:40,205 So unfortunately, this calculation is a bit ugly. 264 00:12:40,205 --> 00:12:41,330 You just have to do it a bunch of times 265 00:12:41,330 --> 00:12:43,788 and convince yourself that are doing the right calculation. 266 00:12:43,788 --> 00:12:46,610 Basically you got to remember to add one when you're converting 267 00:12:46,610 --> 00:12:48,560 the odds ratio to an equity. 268 00:12:51,230 --> 00:12:54,410 So it should be fairly simple math. 269 00:12:54,410 --> 00:12:56,870 So in this case, I folded because I 270 00:12:56,870 --> 00:12:58,309 didn't have the desired. 271 00:12:58,309 --> 00:12:59,850 So is there any questions about that? 272 00:12:59,850 --> 00:13:03,080 That was maybe a bit confusing but I don't know of a great way 273 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:08,750 to show the exact conversion from pot odds into equity. 274 00:13:08,750 --> 00:13:10,560 But I just want to point out that they're 275 00:13:10,560 --> 00:13:12,020 slightly different. 276 00:13:12,020 --> 00:13:15,260 One is a ratio of when to lose and one is basically 277 00:13:15,260 --> 00:13:18,160 a fraction of win over all possible outcomes. 278 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:19,650 So just don't get confused by this. 279 00:13:19,650 --> 00:13:20,566 That's all I'm saying. 280 00:13:20,566 --> 00:13:23,150 I'm going to quickly interchange between the two 281 00:13:23,150 --> 00:13:24,090 throughout the course. 282 00:13:24,090 --> 00:13:26,720 And you should try to get in the habit of being able to quickly 283 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:27,761 complete between the two. 284 00:13:30,420 --> 00:13:32,870 So this is an example of level two reasoning. 285 00:13:32,870 --> 00:13:36,800 And hand reading is about using your opponent's past actions 286 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:38,720 and your knowledge of their tendencies 287 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,510 to tweak your probability distribution of over what 288 00:13:41,510 --> 00:13:42,710 you think their hand is. 289 00:13:42,710 --> 00:13:46,130 So hand reading is not about pegging your opponent 290 00:13:46,130 --> 00:13:48,550 on a specific hand. 291 00:13:48,550 --> 00:13:49,730 It's a marketing message. 292 00:13:49,730 --> 00:13:51,290 Poker players, they wear sunglasses, 293 00:13:51,290 --> 00:13:55,130 they have earplugs to prevent people from reading their soul. 294 00:13:55,130 --> 00:13:57,980 It matters a bit, but really, these things, things 295 00:13:57,980 --> 00:14:00,200 like I scratched my ear before I raised, 296 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,780 it should affect your belief about my cards a very small 297 00:14:03,780 --> 00:14:07,460 amount, way less than what Lady Gaga and the media 298 00:14:07,460 --> 00:14:08,450 makes it seem like. 299 00:14:12,020 --> 00:14:15,080 That's how you reason about a hand exploitatively. 300 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,600 You build a model for how your opponent behaves 301 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,480 and you make the decision that's the most positive expectancy 302 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:21,860 against that model. 303 00:14:21,860 --> 00:14:24,860 And you can go very, very far with level two reasoning. 304 00:14:24,860 --> 00:14:28,830 You can basically build a career out of level two reasoning. 305 00:14:28,830 --> 00:14:31,550 And it's best targeted towards individual opponents 306 00:14:31,550 --> 00:14:33,140 with specific tendencies that you're 307 00:14:33,140 --> 00:14:35,589 trying to take advantage of. 308 00:14:35,589 --> 00:14:36,630 So this sounds very good. 309 00:14:36,630 --> 00:14:38,490 This sounds like a great way to play poker. 310 00:14:38,490 --> 00:14:41,980 I figured out what my opponent's doing right. 311 00:14:41,980 --> 00:14:45,912 I just figured out the probability distribution 312 00:14:45,912 --> 00:14:47,870 and play in a way make the most money from him. 313 00:14:47,870 --> 00:14:56,070 So does anyone have any problems with this type of reasoning? 314 00:14:56,070 --> 00:14:59,530 So I've got some $20 Amazon gift certificates 315 00:14:59,530 --> 00:15:01,160 from [? Acuma ?] Capital. 316 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:04,000 Someone can point out potentially something 317 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,520 you don't like about this type of reasoning 318 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,162 I'll give you this gift certificate. 319 00:15:09,162 --> 00:15:10,870 AUDIENCE: You reveal a lot of information 320 00:15:10,870 --> 00:15:14,010 about what your hand is when you think like this. 321 00:15:16,562 --> 00:15:17,270 PROFESSOR: Right. 322 00:15:17,270 --> 00:15:19,150 But what if your model incorporates the fact 323 00:15:19,150 --> 00:15:22,300 that they are going to behave based on what they think 324 00:15:22,300 --> 00:15:25,030 is in your hand. 325 00:15:25,030 --> 00:15:25,930 Yeah. 326 00:15:25,930 --> 00:15:28,430 AUDIENCE: It might take you a long time to build this model. 327 00:15:28,430 --> 00:15:31,430 And if the players leave your table, or whatever, 328 00:15:31,430 --> 00:15:33,430 you spent like-- because before you have a model 329 00:15:33,430 --> 00:15:36,870 you can't use this line of reasoning. 330 00:15:36,870 --> 00:15:39,719 So it's expensive to do it. 331 00:15:39,719 --> 00:15:41,010 PROFESSOR: That's a good point. 332 00:15:41,010 --> 00:15:44,040 So first of all, level two reasoning is not easy. 333 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,190 Even though it has flaws, even playing very good level two, 334 00:15:47,190 --> 00:15:48,210 poker is not easy. 335 00:15:48,210 --> 00:15:50,880 Building the model can be very hard and you could be wrong. 336 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,970 But that's not really what I'm looking for. 337 00:15:53,970 --> 00:15:55,248 Colin, yeah. 338 00:15:55,248 --> 00:15:59,890 AUDIENCE: Because if your opponent knows your reasoning 339 00:15:59,890 --> 00:16:04,120 then he could maybe bet a certain way to push it to 28%, 340 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,922 where you'd only call if it's-- 341 00:16:06,922 --> 00:16:07,630 PROFESSOR: Right. 342 00:16:07,630 --> 00:16:08,129 OK. 343 00:16:08,129 --> 00:16:09,840 Yeah. 344 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:11,090 I think that's be good enough. 345 00:16:11,090 --> 00:16:12,381 I' going to give a certificate. 346 00:16:12,381 --> 00:16:15,420 I'll give it to you at the end. 347 00:16:15,420 --> 00:16:19,190 So essentially, the problem is it's 348 00:16:19,190 --> 00:16:21,352 this assumption-- the fatal flaw in every plan 349 00:16:21,352 --> 00:16:23,560 is the assumption that you know more than your enemy. 350 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,560 Does anyone know where this is from, by the way? 351 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,200 If you do I'll have another $20 gift certificate. 352 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,660 Does anyone know where this phrase is from? 353 00:16:30,660 --> 00:16:31,160 Yeah. 354 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:32,788 AUDIENCE: Is it from Kasowitz? 355 00:16:32,788 --> 00:16:33,371 PROFESSOR: No. 356 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:37,460 Yeah. 357 00:16:37,460 --> 00:16:39,250 AUDIENCE: The Art of War? 358 00:16:39,250 --> 00:16:41,409 PROFESSOR: No. 359 00:16:41,409 --> 00:16:41,950 No one knows. 360 00:16:41,950 --> 00:16:43,575 I'm going to keep the gift certificate. 361 00:16:43,575 --> 00:16:45,980 That's OK. 362 00:16:45,980 --> 00:16:48,620 So essentially, the problem with this line of reasoning 363 00:16:48,620 --> 00:16:50,360 is your opponent does not play according 364 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,380 to a fixed, static algorithm. 365 00:16:52,380 --> 00:16:54,030 They're also an intelligent human 366 00:16:54,030 --> 00:16:57,140 who's taking this class who's building all this for you 367 00:16:57,140 --> 00:16:59,690 and adapting the strategy to beat you. 368 00:16:59,690 --> 00:17:02,290 So if you assume your opponent plays with a fixed strategy, 369 00:17:02,290 --> 00:17:05,910 but what if they're doing the same for you? 370 00:17:05,910 --> 00:17:08,510 Now I'm going to get to the third level of reasoning, 371 00:17:08,510 --> 00:17:11,520 which I call optimal play. 372 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,069 So let's analyze the exact same hand using level three 373 00:17:14,069 --> 00:17:14,569 reasoning. 374 00:17:14,569 --> 00:17:16,200 So don't get me wrong. 375 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:17,540 Level two reasoning is great. 376 00:17:17,540 --> 00:17:19,609 If you can do level two reasoning very well 377 00:17:19,609 --> 00:17:21,099 you can make a ton of money. 378 00:17:21,099 --> 00:17:23,839 But level three reasoning is a completely different way 379 00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:28,430 to analyze this hand that can also make you a lot of money. 380 00:17:28,430 --> 00:17:32,300 So level three reasoning I'm going to think like this. 381 00:17:32,300 --> 00:17:35,570 Level three is my range of hands over your range of hands. 382 00:17:35,570 --> 00:17:38,180 So instead of looking at my specific cards 383 00:17:38,180 --> 00:17:40,000 and figuring out what my cards are, 384 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,430 I'm actually going to also put a probability distribution 385 00:17:43,430 --> 00:17:47,630 over myself and myself, to my opponent's eyes, what 386 00:17:47,630 --> 00:17:50,540 is the probability distribution of my hands? 387 00:17:50,540 --> 00:17:52,730 And in this specific spot, let's just say, 388 00:17:52,730 --> 00:17:54,410 I decide that my range in this spot 389 00:17:54,410 --> 00:17:56,210 is ace jack through ace seven. 390 00:17:56,210 --> 00:17:57,330 So not including ace nine. 391 00:17:57,330 --> 00:17:59,300 It's basically ace 10, ace eight, ace seven. 392 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,360 So this is the way to do the calculation. 393 00:18:04,360 --> 00:18:07,650 So let's just assume I know my opponent's propensity 394 00:18:07,650 --> 00:18:13,870 to bet 1 over 1.6% of the pot on the river. 395 00:18:13,870 --> 00:18:16,050 So the pot was 13,000 on the river 396 00:18:16,050 --> 00:18:21,630 and I know that my opponent's going to bet 8,000. 397 00:18:21,630 --> 00:18:23,302 So I must call with the frequency such 398 00:18:23,302 --> 00:18:26,240 that their EV from bluffing is zero. 399 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,350 So that's essentially my goal with optimal play. 400 00:18:28,350 --> 00:18:29,970 So essentially what I'm saying is, 401 00:18:29,970 --> 00:18:31,560 let's say they have a really bad hand. 402 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,570 They have like jack 10 for jack high, which 403 00:18:33,570 --> 00:18:36,620 is almost certainly going to lose the pot if they don't 404 00:18:36,620 --> 00:18:39,870 bet to try to get me to fold. 405 00:18:39,870 --> 00:18:42,840 Then I want to call with the frequency 406 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:45,180 such that with those hands, regardless 407 00:18:45,180 --> 00:18:47,880 of whether they bluff, their expectation is zero. 408 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:49,170 So how do I do that? 409 00:18:49,170 --> 00:18:53,990 I just make my call to fold ratio 1.6 to 1. 410 00:18:53,990 --> 00:18:55,620 Sorry, in all these computations, 411 00:18:55,620 --> 00:18:59,800 to make it easier, I'm assuming 1.6 412 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:01,900 is approximate for the ratio. 413 00:19:01,900 --> 00:19:05,520 It's actually 13 over 8. 414 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,920 It actually turned out to be mostly Fibonacci numbers 415 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:10,890 so the ratio is around 1.6 to 1 for all of them. 416 00:19:10,890 --> 00:19:12,060 [INAUDIBLE] 417 00:19:12,060 --> 00:19:16,170 So my call to fold ratio needs to be 1.6 to 1 418 00:19:16,170 --> 00:19:18,840 so that if they have that a bad hand 419 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,710 their expectation from bluffing is zero. 420 00:19:22,710 --> 00:19:24,810 It doesn't matter whether they bluff. 421 00:19:24,810 --> 00:19:29,020 So if I do this calculation then ace 10-- sorry, 422 00:19:29,020 --> 00:19:30,710 there's a typo-- ace 10 is definitely 423 00:19:30,710 --> 00:19:37,020 in the top 61.5% of hands I can have so I need to call. 424 00:19:37,020 --> 00:19:39,660 So I'm not building a probability model for them. 425 00:19:39,660 --> 00:19:43,050 What I'm essentially saying is, if I'm not calling ace 10 here 426 00:19:43,050 --> 00:19:46,530 then they can exploit me by bluffing too much 427 00:19:46,530 --> 00:19:48,420 and I'm just folding all my hands here. 428 00:19:48,420 --> 00:19:51,180 And they're going to be able to make money off of me. 429 00:19:51,180 --> 00:19:54,000 To prevent this I must call ace 10, which 430 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,700 is a 61.5 percentile hand in my range, 431 00:19:57,700 --> 00:20:00,590 so they can't exploit me. 432 00:20:00,590 --> 00:20:02,450 So I'm going to make an analogy with RPS. 433 00:20:02,450 --> 00:20:03,950 Rock, paper, scissors, does everyone 434 00:20:03,950 --> 00:20:05,074 know how to play this game? 435 00:20:05,074 --> 00:20:08,180 So you either throw a rock, scissors, or paper. 436 00:20:08,180 --> 00:20:10,359 So there's no way that you would not know this game. 437 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,650 I know people, if you grew up in a different background 438 00:20:12,650 --> 00:20:13,640 you might call it something else or you 439 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:14,960 might have different rules. 440 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,080 But the rules I'm playing with is rock beats scissors, 441 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:22,230 scissors beats paper, and paper beats rock. 442 00:20:22,230 --> 00:20:25,137 So exploitative play you think like this. 443 00:20:25,137 --> 00:20:26,720 You say, since my opponent just played 444 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,980 rock three times in a row I think 445 00:20:28,980 --> 00:20:30,750 they're probably not going to play a rock 446 00:20:30,750 --> 00:20:32,010 a fourth time in a row. 447 00:20:32,010 --> 00:20:33,830 So I'm going to play scissors because I 448 00:20:33,830 --> 00:20:35,677 know I can't be beaten. 449 00:20:35,677 --> 00:20:37,510 Optimal play just says I'm going to memorize 450 00:20:37,510 --> 00:20:39,390 a sequence of random bits and always play 451 00:20:39,390 --> 00:20:42,530 each a rock, paper, and scissors with probably a third. 452 00:20:42,530 --> 00:20:46,070 So this is an analogy with rock, paper, scissors. 453 00:20:46,070 --> 00:20:49,090 So one question I often get it is, if when you play optimally 454 00:20:49,090 --> 00:20:50,480 you're making all your opponent's 455 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,882 decisions the same then your opponent essentially is never 456 00:20:53,882 --> 00:20:55,340 making a mistake because regardless 457 00:20:55,340 --> 00:20:57,430 of what they do it's the same. 458 00:20:57,430 --> 00:20:59,539 Then how do you make money playing optimally? 459 00:20:59,539 --> 00:21:01,080 In rock, paper, scissors that's true. 460 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,632 If my strategy is just play rock, paper, scissors, 461 00:21:03,632 --> 00:21:05,090 each with a probability a third I'm 462 00:21:05,090 --> 00:21:07,690 never going to beat you more often than I should. 463 00:21:07,690 --> 00:21:11,420 But in poker there's enough opportunities 464 00:21:11,420 --> 00:21:14,220 to essentially be inconsistent. 465 00:21:14,220 --> 00:21:16,550 For example, sometimes you will see 466 00:21:16,550 --> 00:21:21,922 players fold seven six suited and then, because later they're 467 00:21:21,922 --> 00:21:23,630 bored and feel like playing a worse hand, 468 00:21:23,630 --> 00:21:27,530 they'll call six five suited in the exact same situation, which 469 00:21:27,530 --> 00:21:31,160 is like basically making a strictly dominated strategy. 470 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,380 Or like check raising a circling theory range. 471 00:21:33,380 --> 00:21:35,630 Essentially, a theoretical optimal strategy you 472 00:21:35,630 --> 00:21:39,010 will still extract money slowly from even the best players. 473 00:21:39,010 --> 00:21:41,132 Because even the best players in poker right now, 474 00:21:41,132 --> 00:21:43,090 there's going to be slight inconsistencies that 475 00:21:43,090 --> 00:21:45,360 are not theoretically optimal. 476 00:21:48,470 --> 00:21:50,975 So the optimal strategy, another way to think about it 477 00:21:50,975 --> 00:21:53,100 is a Nash equilibrium, if you've heard of the term. 478 00:21:53,100 --> 00:21:57,480 Because the best response to the optimal strategy 479 00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,480 is the optimal strategy itself. 480 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,990 Whereas the best response to any exploitative strategy 481 00:22:02,990 --> 00:22:04,500 is going to be a different strategy. 482 00:22:04,500 --> 00:22:06,580 Whenever you play an exploitative strategy 483 00:22:06,580 --> 00:22:09,300 you stand to bee beating by a different exploitive 484 00:22:09,300 --> 00:22:12,380 strategy that re-exploits you. 485 00:22:12,380 --> 00:22:14,150 This is a defense optimal plays. 486 00:22:14,150 --> 00:22:16,390 We play each with the same probability. 487 00:22:16,390 --> 00:22:19,290 Optimal play you're indifferent to your opponent's move. 488 00:22:19,290 --> 00:22:21,690 So optimal play, you're making a lot of money 489 00:22:21,690 --> 00:22:24,300 when your opponent does something strictly suboptimal. 490 00:22:24,300 --> 00:22:27,000 Whereas in exploitative play you make a lot of money 491 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,530 when you're winning the mind games 492 00:22:28,530 --> 00:22:30,321 and you lose a lot when you're losing them. 493 00:22:30,321 --> 00:22:32,667 So exploitative play is sort of like I 494 00:22:32,667 --> 00:22:35,250 know that you know that I know that you know that I know this. 495 00:22:35,250 --> 00:22:37,333 But you know that I know that you know that I know 496 00:22:37,333 --> 00:22:38,630 that you know that I know this. 497 00:22:38,630 --> 00:22:39,880 You get into these mind games. 498 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,056 And if you're good at them then it's pretty good. 499 00:22:42,056 --> 00:22:43,680 If you're playing rock, paper, scissors 500 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,680 against a four-year-old child, probably you 501 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:47,936 don't want to play optimally. 502 00:22:47,936 --> 00:22:49,560 Probably you want to look at their face 503 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,268 and try and figure out what they're going 504 00:22:51,268 --> 00:22:53,400 to do and try to beat them. 505 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,110 But if you're playing rock, paper, 506 00:22:55,110 --> 00:22:58,140 scissors against the rock, paper, scissors world champion, 507 00:22:58,140 --> 00:23:01,302 which there is one actually, then probably 508 00:23:01,302 --> 00:23:03,510 you just want to memorize the sequence of random bits 509 00:23:03,510 --> 00:23:06,930 and play each probability a third. 510 00:23:06,930 --> 00:23:09,330 So another good thing about exploitative play 511 00:23:09,330 --> 00:23:11,790 is it's intuitive. 512 00:23:11,790 --> 00:23:14,610 We sort of grew up thinking in terms of exploitative play. 513 00:23:14,610 --> 00:23:16,370 I think that's a fair statement. 514 00:23:16,370 --> 00:23:19,770 In most things it's like what do you think might happen? 515 00:23:19,770 --> 00:23:22,260 OK, if that might happen, OK, I'll do this. 516 00:23:22,260 --> 00:23:24,740 But optimal play is sort of a weird mentality thing 517 00:23:24,740 --> 00:23:27,210 because it's sort of like I'm just 518 00:23:27,210 --> 00:23:30,750 going to analyze what my opponent could potentially do. 519 00:23:30,750 --> 00:23:32,580 So you need an opponent essentially. 520 00:23:32,580 --> 00:23:34,360 And then I'm just going to perform 521 00:23:34,360 --> 00:23:37,830 an action that makes it so that my opponent can't really 522 00:23:37,830 --> 00:23:39,707 beat me. 523 00:23:39,707 --> 00:23:41,790 So that's enough about those two general concepts. 524 00:23:41,790 --> 00:23:43,620 I'm going to take a short break right here since it's 525 00:23:43,620 --> 00:23:44,330 good timing. 526 00:23:44,330 --> 00:23:48,570 So I'm going to continue and we'll get in some actual poker. 527 00:23:48,570 --> 00:23:52,120 But first we're going to play one last game. 528 00:23:52,120 --> 00:23:54,620 We're going to play a game called Who's Taller? 529 00:23:54,620 --> 00:23:56,740 Anyone can join the content for a dollar. 530 00:23:56,740 --> 00:24:00,847 We're not actually having this so don't get out your wallets. 531 00:24:00,847 --> 00:24:02,430 And then the tallest person who joined 532 00:24:02,430 --> 00:24:03,920 the game gets the entire pot. 533 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:05,812 So all the people who join the game, 534 00:24:05,812 --> 00:24:07,520 we're going to measure who's the tallest, 535 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,605 and then that person gets everyone's money. 536 00:24:09,605 --> 00:24:10,480 So again, let's play. 537 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,270 So everyone, close your eyes so that you can't look in here. 538 00:24:12,270 --> 00:24:13,450 Everyone close your eyes. 539 00:24:13,450 --> 00:24:14,260 No peeking. 540 00:24:14,260 --> 00:24:15,950 No peeking at how tall-- 541 00:24:15,950 --> 00:24:17,980 So I want everyone-- close your eyes. 542 00:24:17,980 --> 00:24:19,890 Is everyone's eyes closed? 543 00:24:19,890 --> 00:24:25,020 So put up your hand if you want to join the contest. 544 00:24:25,020 --> 00:24:27,679 Put it nice and high so that I can see if you 545 00:24:27,679 --> 00:24:28,720 want to join the content. 546 00:24:31,310 --> 00:24:32,495 So raise your hand high. 547 00:24:32,495 --> 00:24:33,050 It's OK. 548 00:24:33,050 --> 00:24:33,800 There's no embarrassment. 549 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:35,420 The whole point of poker is where-- 550 00:24:35,420 --> 00:24:36,300 OK, cool. 551 00:24:36,300 --> 00:24:39,070 So now everyone open your eyes. 552 00:24:39,070 --> 00:24:40,680 So I think five people joined. 553 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,120 So you guys come down here. 554 00:24:42,120 --> 00:24:45,270 Let's see who-- [LAUGHTER] Let's see who won the pot. 555 00:24:45,270 --> 00:24:49,795 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 556 00:24:49,795 --> 00:24:50,670 PROFESSOR: That's OK. 557 00:24:50,670 --> 00:24:54,355 It's totally OK if you lost. 558 00:24:54,355 --> 00:24:55,480 So I think the four of you. 559 00:25:02,088 --> 00:25:03,102 Sorry, what's your name? 560 00:25:03,102 --> 00:25:03,810 AUDIENCE: Justin. 561 00:25:03,810 --> 00:25:04,060 PROFESSOR: OK. 562 00:25:04,060 --> 00:25:04,559 Justin. 563 00:25:04,559 --> 00:25:06,180 So I think Justin voted one. 564 00:25:06,180 --> 00:25:10,000 So good job Justin, you would have made $3. 565 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:10,681 All right. 566 00:25:10,681 --> 00:25:11,180 Cool. 567 00:25:11,180 --> 00:25:14,620 So what's the point of this game? 568 00:25:14,620 --> 00:25:17,750 The point of this game is so from a game 569 00:25:17,750 --> 00:25:20,444 theoretic point of view no one really 570 00:25:20,444 --> 00:25:21,610 should be playing this game. 571 00:25:21,610 --> 00:25:26,830 So this is only known as the k-beauty game from game theory. 572 00:25:26,830 --> 00:25:28,139 So how tall are you Justin? 573 00:25:28,139 --> 00:25:28,680 JUSTIN: 6'5". 574 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:29,950 PROFESSOR: 6'5". 575 00:25:29,950 --> 00:25:31,649 So why did you play the game? 576 00:25:31,649 --> 00:25:33,940 Because he thought there's probably someone who's going 577 00:25:33,940 --> 00:25:38,830 to be 6'2" who might play the game, right? 578 00:25:38,830 --> 00:25:41,320 But if everyone knew that if you're only 6'2" you 579 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,611 shouldn't be playing this game because someone might be 580 00:25:43,611 --> 00:25:46,630 6'5" then you wouldn't play the game because someone else is 581 00:25:46,630 --> 00:25:48,850 only going to play the game if they were like 582 00:25:48,850 --> 00:25:50,270 6'8" or something. 583 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,490 So let's say we played this again. 584 00:25:54,490 --> 00:25:57,730 Probably only Justin would play. 585 00:25:57,730 --> 00:26:00,310 Eventually this always devolves into a situation 586 00:26:00,310 --> 00:26:02,180 where basically no one is going to join. 587 00:26:02,180 --> 00:26:04,180 Because you know that no matter-- even if you're 588 00:26:04,180 --> 00:26:06,580 like seven feet tall, you're LeBron James, 589 00:26:06,580 --> 00:26:09,199 you would know that someone would only 590 00:26:09,199 --> 00:26:11,740 played this game if they were the tallest person in the world 591 00:26:11,740 --> 00:26:12,770 essentially. 592 00:26:12,770 --> 00:26:15,430 So basically poker without blinds, 593 00:26:15,430 --> 00:26:17,710 which is the money that's put into the pot 594 00:26:17,710 --> 00:26:20,260 at the start of every hand, would essentially 595 00:26:20,260 --> 00:26:21,910 be like Who's Taller game. 596 00:26:21,910 --> 00:26:24,940 So when you play poker you want the motivation of every hand 597 00:26:24,940 --> 00:26:26,590 to be stealing the blinds, stealing 598 00:26:26,590 --> 00:26:28,780 the money that was forced into the pot 599 00:26:28,780 --> 00:26:30,742 without the choice of the person. 600 00:26:30,742 --> 00:26:32,200 So you would always fold king king, 601 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,450 which is the second best hand in poker pre-flop, 602 00:26:34,450 --> 00:26:37,480 if there were no blinds. 603 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,310 Suppose we were to play Who's Taller again. 604 00:26:40,310 --> 00:26:43,720 But I told you that I'm going to force Lee Marie to play. 605 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,710 OK So now we've got a game because now, 606 00:26:47,710 --> 00:26:50,770 even if you're not sure whether you're the tallest 607 00:26:50,770 --> 00:26:54,334 person in the room, if you're taller then Lee Marie 608 00:26:54,334 --> 00:26:55,750 then you have a chance of winning. 609 00:26:55,750 --> 00:26:59,744 So that's essentially why we need blinds to have a game. 610 00:27:05,470 --> 00:27:07,450 So you always want to think how many chips you 611 00:27:07,450 --> 00:27:10,150 have in terms of the blinds. 612 00:27:10,150 --> 00:27:14,710 So having $400 in front of you in a game where the blinds are 613 00:27:14,710 --> 00:27:17,890 $1 or $2, for our purposes, is equivalent to having 614 00:27:17,890 --> 00:27:20,890 $4,000 in front of you in a game where 615 00:27:20,890 --> 00:27:23,690 the blinds are $10 and $20. 616 00:27:23,690 --> 00:27:26,260 Because essentially, everything you're wagering 617 00:27:26,260 --> 00:27:29,290 is relative to stealing the blinds that were forced 618 00:27:29,290 --> 00:27:30,740 into the game at the beginning. 619 00:27:30,740 --> 00:27:32,620 So in both of these situations we 620 00:27:32,620 --> 00:27:37,180 say that you have 200 bets, or 200 big blinds, or 200 BB. 621 00:27:39,820 --> 00:27:42,580 So that's how to calculate your stack size. 622 00:27:42,580 --> 00:27:45,400 But what's actually important isn't stack size 623 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,770 it's effective stack size. 624 00:27:47,770 --> 00:27:50,470 So effective stack size takes into account 625 00:27:50,470 --> 00:27:54,730 the stack sizes of the people remaining in the pot as well. 626 00:27:57,310 --> 00:27:59,330 So I'll give an example. 627 00:27:59,330 --> 00:28:03,400 So in this case, we're the player with the ace jack. 628 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:05,890 And we decided to go all in. 629 00:28:05,890 --> 00:28:10,390 So what is our exact stack size? 630 00:28:10,390 --> 00:28:14,320 The big blinds is 2,000, the small blind is 1,000. 631 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,800 And we wagered in total 42,000. 632 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,485 So what's our stack size? 633 00:28:20,485 --> 00:28:22,360 AUDIENCE: 20-- 634 00:28:22,360 --> 00:28:23,830 PROFESSOR: 21, right. 635 00:28:23,830 --> 00:28:24,995 It's around 21. 636 00:28:24,995 --> 00:28:26,740 It's around 21 big blinds. 637 00:28:26,740 --> 00:28:30,850 But we didn't really risk 21 big blinds here, did we? 638 00:28:30,850 --> 00:28:33,520 Can someone-- OK, I'll give a $20 gift certificate. 639 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,430 How much did we actually risk in some sense. 640 00:28:36,430 --> 00:28:38,895 Yeah. 641 00:28:38,895 --> 00:28:40,270 AUDIENCE: I can't see quite well, 642 00:28:40,270 --> 00:28:42,670 but I think 12 and one half big blinds? 643 00:28:42,670 --> 00:28:43,900 PROFESSOR: Yeah, exactly. 644 00:28:43,900 --> 00:28:44,660 I'll remember it. 645 00:28:44,660 --> 00:28:46,630 I'll put it here. 646 00:28:46,630 --> 00:28:48,970 So we only risked 12 and a half big blinds 647 00:28:48,970 --> 00:28:52,450 because everyone in front of us has already folded. 648 00:28:52,450 --> 00:28:55,210 And the true players behind the small blind and the big blind, 649 00:28:55,210 --> 00:28:57,190 one of them only has 7 and a half big blinds 650 00:28:57,190 --> 00:28:59,470 and the other one only has 12 and a half big blinds. 651 00:28:59,470 --> 00:29:00,386 Can everyone see that? 652 00:29:00,386 --> 00:29:06,250 So even though UTG plus two has 32 and a half big blinds 653 00:29:06,250 --> 00:29:08,320 could have theoretically covered us 654 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,810 and could have theoretically taken all our money. 655 00:29:10,810 --> 00:29:13,060 But on this hand, because they already folded, 656 00:29:13,060 --> 00:29:15,234 we're essentially only risking at most 12 657 00:29:15,234 --> 00:29:16,150 and a half big blinds. 658 00:29:16,150 --> 00:29:17,417 That's the most we can lose. 659 00:29:17,417 --> 00:29:19,750 So we can't be eliminated from the tournament this hand. 660 00:29:22,940 --> 00:29:24,980 So here's another example. 661 00:29:24,980 --> 00:29:27,192 So here you see this guy that I'm 662 00:29:27,192 --> 00:29:28,650 going to call Low Jack for now, you 663 00:29:28,650 --> 00:29:33,110 see him go all in for 16 big blinds. 664 00:29:33,110 --> 00:29:35,590 So in this case, technically he could lose all his money 665 00:29:35,590 --> 00:29:39,650 because we have more than 16 big blinds and we do cover him. 666 00:29:39,650 --> 00:29:43,930 But in reality, I'd say he's probably not on average 667 00:29:43,930 --> 00:29:47,860 risking 16 big blinds because most of the people who 668 00:29:47,860 --> 00:29:49,600 could call him, other than us, have 669 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:51,730 way less than 16 big blinds. 670 00:29:51,730 --> 00:29:53,350 Does that make sense? 671 00:29:53,350 --> 00:29:56,620 So essentially, there's not like an exact formula 672 00:29:56,620 --> 00:29:58,180 for effective stack size. 673 00:29:58,180 --> 00:30:00,490 But you want to sort of think of it in terms of you 674 00:30:00,490 --> 00:30:02,390 look at the stack sizes of all the people 675 00:30:02,390 --> 00:30:04,690 who could potentially play the hand against you. 676 00:30:04,690 --> 00:30:07,990 And you want to look at roughly how much am I going 677 00:30:07,990 --> 00:30:09,510 to be risking in this hand. 678 00:30:12,114 --> 00:30:13,280 That's effective stack size. 679 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,056 Does that make sense to everyone? 680 00:30:17,652 --> 00:30:19,610 So the second thing I want to talk about that's 681 00:30:19,610 --> 00:30:21,410 very important is position. 682 00:30:21,410 --> 00:30:24,260 So position is basically where you are at the table 683 00:30:24,260 --> 00:30:25,610 relative to the blinds. 684 00:30:25,610 --> 00:30:27,200 So how many players are remaining 685 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,660 to compete versus me for the blinds? 686 00:30:29,660 --> 00:30:31,430 Essentially, the fewer players that 687 00:30:31,430 --> 00:30:35,340 are left the less strong my hand needs to be attack the blinds. 688 00:30:35,340 --> 00:30:38,480 So I'm going to give names for the positions. 689 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,340 Basically the thing that matters is how far 690 00:30:40,340 --> 00:30:41,720 you are from the button. 691 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,030 So in this example with ace jack, 692 00:30:44,030 --> 00:30:46,700 when everyone folded to you and you're 693 00:30:46,700 --> 00:30:48,750 the dealer, which is also known as the button, 694 00:30:48,750 --> 00:30:51,530 essentially to steal the blinds, you just 695 00:30:51,530 --> 00:30:53,650 need to get through the two blinds themselves. 696 00:30:53,650 --> 00:30:55,310 So that's essentially two players. 697 00:30:55,310 --> 00:30:57,350 And then if you're in one position earlier, 698 00:30:57,350 --> 00:30:59,240 when it was folded to cut off, then he 699 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:00,740 had to deal with three players. 700 00:31:00,740 --> 00:31:04,280 So you want to name everything relative to the dealer 701 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:05,580 essentially. 702 00:31:05,580 --> 00:31:08,150 So we can just quickly go through the names. 703 00:31:08,150 --> 00:31:11,390 They'll get more familiar as time goes on. 704 00:31:11,390 --> 00:31:14,920 So the first person to act, we call them under the gun. 705 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,720 So that's this guy here. 706 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,070 And then we go around the table. 707 00:31:19,070 --> 00:31:22,060 It's under the gun plus one, under the gun plus two. 708 00:31:22,060 --> 00:31:25,920 There can be different names for the same position. 709 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:30,620 So in this specific hand, where there were only six players 710 00:31:30,620 --> 00:31:33,922 at the table, you could have called Low Jack under the gun 711 00:31:33,922 --> 00:31:35,630 because under the gun is the first person 712 00:31:35,630 --> 00:31:37,920 to act to the left of the big blind. 713 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,454 But essentially, it's more clear to say Low Jack 714 00:31:40,454 --> 00:31:41,870 because when you say under the gun 715 00:31:41,870 --> 00:31:44,540 you have to say under the gun at a six-handed table. 716 00:31:44,540 --> 00:31:46,290 And then people will know that means you 717 00:31:46,290 --> 00:31:47,720 got to get through five hands. 718 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,770 But if you say Low Jack it's very clear. 719 00:31:49,770 --> 00:31:51,380 You have to get through five hands. 720 00:31:51,380 --> 00:31:55,700 So under the gun and then plus two, and then Low Jack. 721 00:31:55,700 --> 00:31:59,030 You can also call under the gun plus two, Low Jack minus one, 722 00:31:59,030 --> 00:31:59,840 if you want. 723 00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:03,322 And then High Jack, cut off, button. 724 00:32:03,322 --> 00:32:05,030 Don't ask me where these names came from. 725 00:32:05,030 --> 00:32:07,227 I actually have no idea. 726 00:32:07,227 --> 00:32:08,560 And then small blind, big blind. 727 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:12,480 So that's position. 728 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,990 And the importance of position is basically the later 729 00:32:15,990 --> 00:32:18,404 you are the fewer hands you got to get through 730 00:32:18,404 --> 00:32:20,820 to steal the button, to steal the blinds of everyone who's 731 00:32:20,820 --> 00:32:23,280 already folded. 732 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,400 So the third thing that matters in a poker game is equity. 733 00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,100 So we talked about stack size, we talked about position. 734 00:32:29,100 --> 00:32:31,320 The last thing is actually your cards. 735 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,840 So the equity of your cards is basically your secret height 736 00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:35,970 for the Who's Taller game. 737 00:32:35,970 --> 00:32:37,345 So you can think of it like that. 738 00:32:37,345 --> 00:32:38,970 Your cards is like your secret height. 739 00:32:38,970 --> 00:32:41,310 And the probability of you winning the pot, 740 00:32:41,310 --> 00:32:43,110 or equivalently, the fraction of the pot 741 00:32:43,110 --> 00:32:45,150 you would win once the remaining cards are dealt 742 00:32:45,150 --> 00:32:48,200 is called your equity. 743 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,940 So I'm going to give some examples of calculating equity. 744 00:32:51,940 --> 00:32:57,580 So here's an example where we get it all on the turn. 745 00:32:57,580 --> 00:33:00,355 And so I have five four states spades here. 746 00:33:00,355 --> 00:33:01,990 So I'm not in a great position. 747 00:33:01,990 --> 00:33:05,980 But let's count how many outs I have. 748 00:33:05,980 --> 00:33:08,560 So this one I want to just name a river card that 749 00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:10,417 would help me win the pot. 750 00:33:10,417 --> 00:33:11,500 AUDIENCE: Seven of spades. 751 00:33:11,500 --> 00:33:12,125 PROFESSOR: Yes. 752 00:33:12,125 --> 00:33:13,250 AUDIENCE: Seven of spades. 753 00:33:13,250 --> 00:33:14,375 PROFESSOR: Seven of spades. 754 00:33:14,375 --> 00:33:17,170 So that gives me a straight and a flush actually. 755 00:33:17,170 --> 00:33:18,710 So let's go along those lines. 756 00:33:18,710 --> 00:33:21,057 So how many spades are there left in the deck? 757 00:33:21,057 --> 00:33:22,640 AUDIENCE: There should be nine spades. 758 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:23,889 PROFESSOR: Right, nine spades. 759 00:33:23,889 --> 00:33:28,160 And then how many cards help me make a straight here? 760 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:29,130 AUDIENCE: Six more. 761 00:33:29,130 --> 00:33:30,172 AUDIENCE: Seven or a two. 762 00:33:30,172 --> 00:33:30,880 PROFESSOR: Right. 763 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:32,000 A seven or a two. 764 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,930 So it's six more because there's eight sevens and twos. 765 00:33:34,930 --> 00:33:36,850 But I'm double counting the seven of spades 766 00:33:36,850 --> 00:33:38,020 and the two of spades. 767 00:33:38,020 --> 00:33:40,540 So that's nine plus six. 768 00:33:40,540 --> 00:33:43,210 And then I actually have to subtract one more card. 769 00:33:43,210 --> 00:33:44,650 Does anyone see what it is? 770 00:33:44,650 --> 00:33:45,150 Yeah. 771 00:33:45,150 --> 00:33:45,950 AUDIENCE: The queen of spades. 772 00:33:45,950 --> 00:33:46,350 PROFESSOR: Right. 773 00:33:46,350 --> 00:33:48,141 The queen of spades because that's actually 774 00:33:48,141 --> 00:33:51,996 a disastrous situation because then if it wasn't all in I 775 00:33:51,996 --> 00:33:54,120 would probably put more money in the river thinking 776 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,680 I have a flush and lose to a full house. 777 00:33:56,680 --> 00:34:00,040 So it's 14 outs, 17 minus 3. 778 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,350 Our equity is around 32%. 779 00:34:02,350 --> 00:34:05,740 It's 14 over the 44 cards that could still come. 780 00:34:08,406 --> 00:34:09,739 Did that make sense to everyone? 781 00:34:09,739 --> 00:34:11,405 So that's one way of calculating equity. 782 00:34:11,405 --> 00:34:14,050 It's just a very simple probability distribution 783 00:34:14,050 --> 00:34:16,840 over the remaining cards in the deck that could come. 784 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,080 And if you're worried, what if someone 785 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,618 folded the queen of spades so I shouldn't be counting that? 786 00:34:22,618 --> 00:34:24,159 Essentially, you just want to pretend 787 00:34:24,159 --> 00:34:25,674 that the cards that are in the muck, 788 00:34:25,674 --> 00:34:27,719 like the cards that were folded by other players, 789 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,324 they're essentially irrelevant because they could have 790 00:34:30,324 --> 00:34:31,449 folded the queen of spades. 791 00:34:31,449 --> 00:34:34,260 But they could have also folded an irrelevant card, 792 00:34:34,260 --> 00:34:35,860 like the jack of hearts or something. 793 00:34:35,860 --> 00:34:38,290 So essentially you just want to all the cards 794 00:34:38,290 --> 00:34:39,909 that you haven't seen, it's easier 795 00:34:39,909 --> 00:34:43,254 to just assume that they don't affect anything. 796 00:34:43,254 --> 00:34:44,670 In theory they affect things a bit 797 00:34:44,670 --> 00:34:49,379 because if you know that the dealer button folded two cards, 798 00:34:49,379 --> 00:34:50,920 even if you don't know what they are, 799 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:52,960 they're probably more likely to be 800 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,750 really crappy cards, like twos and threes rather than aces 801 00:34:55,750 --> 00:34:57,958 because if they had an ace they would have played it. 802 00:34:57,958 --> 00:34:59,950 But I think not worrying about that is fine. 803 00:34:59,950 --> 00:35:02,980 You don't need to worry about it. 804 00:35:02,980 --> 00:35:05,630 Another example of equity calculation. 805 00:35:05,630 --> 00:35:07,880 So it's the exact same example as before. 806 00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,060 But in this case, the probability distribution 807 00:35:10,060 --> 00:35:11,530 isn't over cards that could come. 808 00:35:11,530 --> 00:35:13,060 All the cards have already come. 809 00:35:13,060 --> 00:35:16,750 The probability distribution is just over my opponent's hand. 810 00:35:16,750 --> 00:35:18,730 So this is the same calculation. 811 00:35:18,730 --> 00:35:21,970 We calculated our equity is 25%. 812 00:35:21,970 --> 00:35:24,040 And that's not a probability distribution 813 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:25,290 over cards to come. 814 00:35:25,290 --> 00:35:26,800 That's a probability distribution 815 00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:30,610 over our beliefs of our opponent's hand. 816 00:35:30,610 --> 00:35:32,290 So example three of calculating equity. 817 00:35:32,290 --> 00:35:35,010 So this one you can't really do by hand. 818 00:35:35,010 --> 00:35:38,280 Let's say you get it all in pre-flop, with ace king suited 819 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:39,750 against pocket twos. 820 00:35:39,750 --> 00:35:42,659 And you basically need a calculator. 821 00:35:42,659 --> 00:35:44,700 There are certain websites that help you do this. 822 00:35:44,700 --> 00:35:48,100 And ace king suited against pocket twos, 823 00:35:48,100 --> 00:35:49,860 if they don't have a two of your suit 824 00:35:49,860 --> 00:35:52,296 is actually a very small favorite which is cool. 825 00:35:52,296 --> 00:35:53,670 But if you have the two of hearts 826 00:35:53,670 --> 00:35:55,710 then you're actually a slight underdog. 827 00:35:58,870 --> 00:36:02,000 So just make sure for all the different things 828 00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:03,420 equity could mean. 829 00:36:03,420 --> 00:36:06,570 Equity could mean a probability over river cards, probability 830 00:36:06,570 --> 00:36:07,996 over the unknown. 831 00:36:07,996 --> 00:36:09,370 A very good calculator in general 832 00:36:09,370 --> 00:36:11,370 is PokerStove, which all have lots 833 00:36:11,370 --> 00:36:12,660 of examples of in my slides. 834 00:36:12,660 --> 00:36:16,720 And you can download it via this link here. 835 00:36:16,720 --> 00:36:19,110 So this is an example of using PokerStove. 836 00:36:19,110 --> 00:36:20,850 You can put in exact calculations. 837 00:36:20,850 --> 00:36:24,090 Let's say you get it in with two of diamonds, two of spades. 838 00:36:24,090 --> 00:36:28,162 So pocket twos on the flop of 5, 3, 2 versus a range where you 839 00:36:28,162 --> 00:36:30,120 know your opponent is going to have a big pair, 840 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,550 like pocket jacks plus, you can actually run it 841 00:36:32,550 --> 00:36:35,790 and your equity is 85%, which is actually surprisingly low, 842 00:36:35,790 --> 00:36:36,431 I think. 843 00:36:36,431 --> 00:36:38,430 Because it seems like you've got three of a kind 844 00:36:38,430 --> 00:36:39,660 they've only got a pair. 845 00:36:39,660 --> 00:36:41,580 They have two chances to hit one of two cards. 846 00:36:41,580 --> 00:36:43,840 But there's a lot of random stuff that can happen, 847 00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,020 like if they have aces they can make a straight, 848 00:36:46,020 --> 00:36:48,270 they can make a back door flush, the board 849 00:36:48,270 --> 00:36:50,430 could come two more fives, which counterfeits, 850 00:36:50,430 --> 00:36:52,590 or three of a kind deuces. 851 00:36:52,590 --> 00:36:56,280 So this is another example of calculating equity. 852 00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,820 So this is just a summary of the different situations you 853 00:36:59,820 --> 00:37:01,770 might want to calculate equity. 854 00:37:01,770 --> 00:37:03,530 And I recommend you download PokerStove. 855 00:37:03,530 --> 00:37:06,430 But you don't really have to. 856 00:37:06,430 --> 00:37:08,520 And I guess one question you could ask 857 00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,980 is how do you actually do this at a table? 858 00:37:10,980 --> 00:37:13,320 So essentially, if you do this a lot while you're 859 00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:14,880 studying about hands and thinking 860 00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:16,540 about poker, eventually-- 861 00:37:16,540 --> 00:37:19,050 I've been able to-- you just memorize a lot of situations 862 00:37:19,050 --> 00:37:21,090 in general what the probabilities are, 863 00:37:21,090 --> 00:37:25,260 or at least what the correct decision is. 864 00:37:25,260 --> 00:37:30,840 So now let's talk about raising two win the blinds and antes. 865 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:34,350 So the antes, an ante is an extra small bet 866 00:37:34,350 --> 00:37:37,680 that each player must put into the pot each hand. 867 00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,560 And these sum to around a big blind. 868 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,070 And they come in during the later stages of a tournament. 869 00:37:43,070 --> 00:37:44,725 And they're inexistant in cash games. 870 00:37:47,250 --> 00:37:49,965 I stuck this under the rug in the earlier examples. 871 00:37:53,710 --> 00:37:58,580 So in-- let me go back-- so like in here. 872 00:37:58,580 --> 00:38:01,410 Do you see the 1,200 in the middle? 873 00:38:01,410 --> 00:38:03,150 So actually stuck this under the rug. 874 00:38:03,150 --> 00:38:05,540 But that comes from each player being 875 00:38:05,540 --> 00:38:09,570 forced to put in 200, which is 1/10 of the big blind, 876 00:38:09,570 --> 00:38:11,110 at the start of every hand. 877 00:38:11,110 --> 00:38:13,980 And if you're playing tournaments then 878 00:38:13,980 --> 00:38:15,990 this would usually be the case. 879 00:38:15,990 --> 00:38:17,850 Antes will come in fairly soon. 880 00:38:17,850 --> 00:38:20,529 If you're playing cash games, where you just sit down 881 00:38:20,529 --> 00:38:22,320 and you can leave whenever and you sit down 882 00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,110 and just play for your own play money, 883 00:38:25,110 --> 00:38:27,790 then there's usually no antes. 884 00:38:27,790 --> 00:38:29,867 But antes actually make a world of difference 885 00:38:29,867 --> 00:38:31,200 in terms of what you want to do. 886 00:38:34,290 --> 00:38:38,100 It's not just the stakes are bigger when there's antes 887 00:38:38,100 --> 00:38:39,780 because you don't want to just think 888 00:38:39,780 --> 00:38:42,390 of it like there's extra money in the pot every hand. 889 00:38:42,390 --> 00:38:44,370 It's equivalent to the blinds being bigger. 890 00:38:44,370 --> 00:38:47,910 That's not true because you also have to put in an ante. 891 00:38:47,910 --> 00:38:50,520 So if the blinds were proportionally bigger 892 00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:53,790 to cover the antes you would have to raise to a bigger size 893 00:38:53,790 --> 00:38:55,620 to try to steal the blinds. 894 00:38:55,620 --> 00:38:58,500 But with antes you don't need to raise to any bigger size 895 00:38:58,500 --> 00:38:59,630 to try to steal the blinds. 896 00:38:59,630 --> 00:39:01,530 So it's actually very action driving. 897 00:39:01,530 --> 00:39:02,424 It's very exciting. 898 00:39:02,424 --> 00:39:03,840 It makes it so that your basically 899 00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,930 want to play a very wide range of hands. 900 00:39:06,930 --> 00:39:08,910 And you really just want to be trying 901 00:39:08,910 --> 00:39:12,720 to win the blinds as often as possible because winning one 902 00:39:12,720 --> 00:39:16,440 pot with the antes is so big. 903 00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:19,690 So this is what it looks like. 904 00:39:19,690 --> 00:39:21,240 So the first thing I'm going to say 905 00:39:21,240 --> 00:39:23,531 is if you're going to start playing tournaments tonight 906 00:39:23,531 --> 00:39:26,679 is if no one has raised yet you really, you don't want to call. 907 00:39:26,679 --> 00:39:28,220 You want it to raise to give yourself 908 00:39:28,220 --> 00:39:30,630 a chance of winning the blinds without seeing a flop. 909 00:39:30,630 --> 00:39:32,970 So I'd say the most common beginner mistake 910 00:39:32,970 --> 00:39:37,260 I see beginner poker players make is not raising 911 00:39:37,260 --> 00:39:39,940 when no one has raised before. 912 00:39:39,940 --> 00:39:43,740 So in this case, it would be just calling for 2,000 913 00:39:43,740 --> 00:39:44,970 and trying to see a flop. 914 00:39:44,970 --> 00:39:46,890 But the main issue is you're giving 915 00:39:46,890 --> 00:39:49,380 the big blind they can just check and see 916 00:39:49,380 --> 00:39:50,490 the flop for free. 917 00:39:50,490 --> 00:39:52,640 Whereas if you raise you put them to a decision. 918 00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:53,940 And they might fold, and you might just 919 00:39:53,940 --> 00:39:55,480 win the pot for free without having 920 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,230 to do anything essentially. 921 00:39:58,230 --> 00:40:01,380 So how much do you raise when I say raise. 922 00:40:01,380 --> 00:40:02,910 The minimum raise size you can do 923 00:40:02,910 --> 00:40:05,440 is raising to two big blinds. 924 00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,470 However, this is a bit small because you 925 00:40:07,470 --> 00:40:10,950 give the blinds fairly good odds to make a profitable call. 926 00:40:10,950 --> 00:40:13,890 Although, it's not even that bad. 927 00:40:13,890 --> 00:40:16,140 So let me just talk in general about raising 928 00:40:16,140 --> 00:40:17,760 big versus raising small. 929 00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,190 So the advantage of raising small 930 00:40:20,190 --> 00:40:21,900 is that you're risking less. 931 00:40:21,900 --> 00:40:24,530 Like let's say you raise and then the next person re-raises, 932 00:40:24,530 --> 00:40:26,490 and then the next person goes all in. 933 00:40:26,490 --> 00:40:29,870 So you know probably those two people have pretty good hands 934 00:40:29,870 --> 00:40:30,960 and you want to fold. 935 00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,340 If you raise to a small size then you can fold 936 00:40:33,340 --> 00:40:35,070 and you don't lose that much. 937 00:40:35,070 --> 00:40:39,040 If I raise to five big blinds then I'm losing a lot more. 938 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,190 But what's the benefit of raising big 939 00:40:41,190 --> 00:40:44,490 is you give other people worse odds to call. 940 00:40:44,490 --> 00:40:46,272 If I only raise to two big blinds, 941 00:40:46,272 --> 00:40:47,730 let's actually do this calculation. 942 00:40:47,730 --> 00:40:50,040 Let's say here, instead of going all in I 943 00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:53,360 raise two big blinds, which is 4,000. 944 00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:54,990 What odds am I essentially giving 945 00:40:54,990 --> 00:40:57,330 the big blind you call to call? 946 00:41:00,930 --> 00:41:03,210 So this is actually, in this very exact situation, 947 00:41:03,210 --> 00:41:05,910 this is a very common mistake I see beginners make, 948 00:41:05,910 --> 00:41:09,100 which is you raise to only 4,000. 949 00:41:09,100 --> 00:41:09,880 Yeah. 950 00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,450 AUDIENCE: So there's 8,000 that's in the pot 951 00:41:12,450 --> 00:41:14,152 and they have to call 2,000, so it's 21? 952 00:41:14,152 --> 00:41:14,860 PROFESSOR: Right. 953 00:41:14,860 --> 00:41:15,419 So it's 41. 954 00:41:15,419 --> 00:41:16,710 But there's also a small blind. 955 00:41:16,710 --> 00:41:20,050 So there's actually going to be 9,000 essentially in the pot. 956 00:41:20,050 --> 00:41:20,880 Yeah. 957 00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:22,200 So it's going to be 8,800 in. 958 00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:23,158 It's going to be 8,800. 959 00:41:23,158 --> 00:41:24,990 So approximately 9,000. 960 00:41:24,990 --> 00:41:27,285 And they only have to call 2,000 to see the pot. 961 00:41:27,285 --> 00:41:30,190 Does that make sense to everyone? 962 00:41:30,190 --> 00:41:32,910 So the odds are actually 4.5 to 1. 963 00:41:32,910 --> 00:41:35,530 And ace jack off-suit is a great hand. 964 00:41:35,530 --> 00:41:38,820 But there's no hand that ace jack 965 00:41:38,820 --> 00:41:43,680 off-suit is more than a 4.5 to 1 favorite against. 966 00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,920 So in some sense, basically, even if they have jacks two, 967 00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:50,880 or whatever, ace two, think of the best possible case, 968 00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,110 you're still not doing better than the odds 969 00:41:53,110 --> 00:41:53,955 you're giving them. 970 00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,590 So on the other hand though, it is really risky 971 00:42:00,590 --> 00:42:01,990 to raise more than 2.25. 972 00:42:01,990 --> 00:42:04,826 So a reasonable rule of thumb, I'd say, 973 00:42:04,826 --> 00:42:08,209 is to raise to the 2.25 big blinds in tournaments. 974 00:42:08,209 --> 00:42:09,500 I know it's pretty close to do. 975 00:42:09,500 --> 00:42:12,680 If you just raised to two it's probably not that bad. 976 00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,210 But roughly speaking, I think this 977 00:42:14,210 --> 00:42:16,310 is a reasonable rule of thumb. 978 00:42:16,310 --> 00:42:18,080 Earlier you could try to raise to more. 979 00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:19,640 I think that's sort of customary, 980 00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:23,210 although I don't think it's theoretically optimal. 981 00:42:23,210 --> 00:42:25,030 You'll often see players raise to like 982 00:42:25,030 --> 00:42:28,000 three blinds, especially when you watch pro players. 983 00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:29,120 They'll raise to bigger. 984 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:30,800 But the main reason is because they're 985 00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:32,720 the better player by a lot and they're just 986 00:42:32,720 --> 00:42:35,660 trying to make big pots, which is reasonable. 987 00:42:35,660 --> 00:42:38,370 If you're trying to just play big pots 988 00:42:38,370 --> 00:42:41,270 and win big pots then raising to the bigger size is fine. 989 00:42:41,270 --> 00:42:43,490 But I don't think there's any theoretical reason 990 00:42:43,490 --> 00:42:49,340 to raise to more than 2.25 big blinds in most situations. 991 00:42:49,340 --> 00:42:53,600 Other than when in cash games, where all players have 992 00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,340 a lot of money, then it's a bit different 993 00:42:55,340 --> 00:42:56,714 because also in cash games you're 994 00:42:56,714 --> 00:42:59,930 not worried about risking more because you're not 995 00:42:59,930 --> 00:43:03,710 worried about losing out of the tournament. 996 00:43:03,710 --> 00:43:07,520 So the other thing is instead of raising you should just 997 00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:12,830 go all in if the effective stack size is 12 big blinds or less. 998 00:43:12,830 --> 00:43:15,365 So recall, the rational for raising big 999 00:43:15,365 --> 00:43:17,510 is to prevent others from calling for cheap. 1000 00:43:17,510 --> 00:43:19,130 But the rational for raising small 1001 00:43:19,130 --> 00:43:21,830 is to lose less if we get re-raised and have to fold. 1002 00:43:21,830 --> 00:43:24,950 But 12 big blinds is sort of the point where it's small enough 1003 00:43:24,950 --> 00:43:27,500 that you never really want to fold after committing 1004 00:43:27,500 --> 00:43:29,180 2.25 big blinds. 1005 00:43:29,180 --> 00:43:32,430 So if I only have 12 big blinds, I raise 2.25, 1006 00:43:32,430 --> 00:43:36,660 I've only got 9.75 left after. 1007 00:43:36,660 --> 00:43:39,440 OK, fine, if I get raises and re-raised maybe I'll fold. 1008 00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:42,080 But even if I get re-raised once, 1009 00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,120 if I'm raising in the first place 1010 00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,850 my hand is going to be reasonable. 1011 00:43:46,850 --> 00:43:48,320 If it's a Who's Taller game I'm not 1012 00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,270 going to raise in the first place 1013 00:43:50,270 --> 00:43:52,760 if I'm 5 feet, or something. 1014 00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:56,360 So your hand will be reasonable. 1015 00:43:56,360 --> 00:44:00,260 So this is beginner mistake number two is being too scared 1016 00:44:00,260 --> 00:44:01,310 to go all in pre-flop. 1017 00:44:01,310 --> 00:44:05,240 So that's why this ace jack hand, I actually cheated a bit. 1018 00:44:05,240 --> 00:44:08,030 So technically here, the effective stack size is-- 1019 00:44:08,030 --> 00:44:11,420 the big blind has 12 and a half big blinds 1020 00:44:11,420 --> 00:44:13,550 but the small one only has 7 and a half. 1021 00:44:13,550 --> 00:44:17,930 So I roughly said, the effective stack size is less than 12, 1022 00:44:17,930 --> 00:44:19,864 and I just went all in. 1023 00:44:19,864 --> 00:44:21,780 So that's definitely a beginner mistake number 1024 00:44:21,780 --> 00:44:27,920 two in tournaments is to be too scared to go all in pre-flop. 1025 00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,370 So what your goal essentially should be-- oh, sorry. 1026 00:44:31,370 --> 00:44:33,680 I should say the rule is-- 1027 00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,350 so all of the numbers I said assume there's antes. 1028 00:44:36,350 --> 00:44:39,140 If there's no antes you should change to 10 big blinds. 1029 00:44:39,140 --> 00:44:41,180 So the threshold for going all in 1030 00:44:41,180 --> 00:44:43,807 should be less because when there's no antes 1031 00:44:43,807 --> 00:44:46,098 you want to be risking less because the pot is smaller. 1032 00:44:49,110 --> 00:44:52,200 So overall, when I talked about position 1033 00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:53,975 I talked about stack size. 1034 00:44:53,975 --> 00:44:56,100 Essentially what I'm trying to get the point across 1035 00:44:56,100 --> 00:44:58,770 is if you're just starting out, players 1036 00:44:58,770 --> 00:45:01,230 tend to make all decisions based on their cards. 1037 00:45:01,230 --> 00:45:03,390 It's just like, I have a pair of jacks. 1038 00:45:03,390 --> 00:45:04,980 I see my pair of jacks on this board. 1039 00:45:04,980 --> 00:45:06,540 I have a pair that's pretty good. 1040 00:45:06,540 --> 00:45:09,900 And you sort of tend to ignore what the effect of stack size 1041 00:45:09,900 --> 00:45:12,370 is, how much you're wagering, and position. 1042 00:45:12,370 --> 00:45:14,460 But experienced players, the cards 1043 00:45:14,460 --> 00:45:16,530 actually matter much, much less to the. 1044 00:45:16,530 --> 00:45:19,590 In fact, if you're doing optimal play 1045 00:45:19,590 --> 00:45:21,720 you don't care in some sense what your cards are. 1046 00:45:21,720 --> 00:45:25,990 You just care what your range of cards are at that point. 1047 00:45:25,990 --> 00:45:28,620 So experienced players, they're willing to raise the blinds 1048 00:45:28,620 --> 00:45:31,890 with much weaker hands from good positions rather 1049 00:45:31,890 --> 00:45:32,847 than early positions. 1050 00:45:32,847 --> 00:45:34,680 And they're going to risk going all in a lot 1051 00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,390 more frequently with a lot worse hands 1052 00:45:36,390 --> 00:45:37,744 if their stack size is low. 1053 00:45:37,744 --> 00:45:39,160 So I want you to think about that. 1054 00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,400 So if you're just starting out that's fine. 1055 00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:43,140 If you're still trying to figure out 1056 00:45:43,140 --> 00:45:45,280 whether you have a straight and stuff like that, that's fine. 1057 00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:46,950 And it's totally fine if you try to play 1058 00:45:46,950 --> 00:45:48,270 based just on your cards. 1059 00:45:48,270 --> 00:45:50,550 But I want everyone's goal by the end of the class 1060 00:45:50,550 --> 00:45:53,700 to be able to play based on these other factors 1061 00:45:53,700 --> 00:45:56,322 more so than your cards. 1062 00:45:56,322 --> 00:45:58,030 So that being said, I'm going to give you 1063 00:45:58,030 --> 00:46:01,150 some concrete suggestions for those of you 1064 00:46:01,150 --> 00:46:03,530 who might want to start playing tonight of what hands 1065 00:46:03,530 --> 00:46:07,830 you should be playing from each position. 1066 00:46:07,830 --> 00:46:12,240 So most of the tournaments will have nine players per table. 1067 00:46:12,240 --> 00:46:15,610 So this is going to be roughly a range I recommend to open. 1068 00:46:15,610 --> 00:46:17,080 So these are the range of hands you 1069 00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,450 should be playing from the worst position, 1070 00:46:20,450 --> 00:46:22,220 so under the gun at a nine-handed table. 1071 00:46:22,220 --> 00:46:24,050 So there's eight players left behind you. 1072 00:46:24,050 --> 00:46:25,540 You can pick up really good hands. 1073 00:46:25,540 --> 00:46:29,070 So it's aces, kings, queens, jacks; ace king off-suited; 1074 00:46:29,070 --> 00:46:33,720 ace king off-suit; 10s; ace queen suited; ace queen off. 1075 00:46:33,720 --> 00:46:35,950 So that's basically the list of hands. 1076 00:46:35,950 --> 00:46:38,230 These are only premium hands. 1077 00:46:38,230 --> 00:46:41,580 This is like 6.2% of hands, I think. 1078 00:46:41,580 --> 00:46:43,370 It's a very premium range. 1079 00:46:43,370 --> 00:46:45,460 So note how tight this is. 1080 00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,680 Because the thing to remember is only the best 1081 00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,980 hand out of nine hands at the table is going to get the pot. 1082 00:46:53,980 --> 00:46:56,980 When there's nine hands, even though the average hand is 1083 00:46:56,980 --> 00:46:59,224 really bad the best hand out of nine hands 1084 00:46:59,224 --> 00:47:00,640 is always going to be pretty good. 1085 00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:02,880 So to even think that you have a chance you need to start out 1086 00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:04,250 with a very premium hold 'em. 1087 00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,780 Roughly, what do you add as you go around the table? 1088 00:47:10,780 --> 00:47:12,077 So for the second position-- 1089 00:47:12,077 --> 00:47:14,410 I'm going to post all these slides before the tournament 1090 00:47:14,410 --> 00:47:15,201 starts, by the way. 1091 00:47:15,201 --> 00:47:17,020 So you don't feel that you scramble 1092 00:47:17,020 --> 00:47:18,850 to write all this down. 1093 00:47:18,850 --> 00:47:21,790 I'm going to post it. 1094 00:47:21,790 --> 00:47:25,510 From the second position, I put in black the hands 1095 00:47:25,510 --> 00:47:27,550 that I would open from the previous position. 1096 00:47:27,550 --> 00:47:29,770 And I've put in red the hands that I would open 1097 00:47:29,770 --> 00:47:31,810 from that position in addition. 1098 00:47:31,810 --> 00:47:33,740 So second position there's one less player. 1099 00:47:33,740 --> 00:47:34,240 OK. 1100 00:47:34,240 --> 00:47:37,270 I'll gamble with sevens, ace, jack, king, queen, ace 10 1101 00:47:37,270 --> 00:47:37,950 suited. 1102 00:47:37,950 --> 00:47:39,790 So we'll get around the table and then 1103 00:47:39,790 --> 00:47:44,000 the range will slowly increase. 1104 00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,830 Also note that these are very conservative ranges. 1105 00:47:47,830 --> 00:47:51,380 If you watch high stakes poker, probably the players 1106 00:47:51,380 --> 00:47:54,520 will open a lot more hands than what I'm recommending here. 1107 00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:56,890 But my general experience has been 1108 00:47:56,890 --> 00:47:59,050 when you're just starting out to play poker 1109 00:47:59,050 --> 00:48:01,690 it's much easier to err on the side of being 1110 00:48:01,690 --> 00:48:04,140 too tight than being too loose. 1111 00:48:04,140 --> 00:48:06,730 Because it's in some sense a lot easier 1112 00:48:06,730 --> 00:48:09,520 to play pocket aces than seven five suited. 1113 00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,020 With pocket aces you're always going 1114 00:48:11,020 --> 00:48:12,394 to have a pair of aces or better. 1115 00:48:12,394 --> 00:48:14,434 You just back that bet. 1116 00:48:14,434 --> 00:48:15,850 And then with seven five suite you 1117 00:48:15,850 --> 00:48:18,160 need to be able to bluff very carefully, 1118 00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:21,406 you need to sometimes be able to try to get value when you just 1119 00:48:21,406 --> 00:48:22,280 hit a pair of sevens. 1120 00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,190 And it's just a lot harder. 1121 00:48:24,190 --> 00:48:26,740 So the ranges I'm suggesting are very 1122 00:48:26,740 --> 00:48:28,770 tight by most poker standards. 1123 00:48:28,770 --> 00:48:30,700 By tight I mean conservative. 1124 00:48:30,700 --> 00:48:32,290 But I think that's the right side 1125 00:48:32,290 --> 00:48:35,130 to err on when you're just starting. 1126 00:48:35,130 --> 00:48:38,230 So these are the ranges. 1127 00:48:38,230 --> 00:48:40,580 As we get to the later positions, so this is Low Jack, 1128 00:48:40,580 --> 00:48:42,960 we're opening more hands now. 1129 00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:44,440 Any two suited Broadways. 1130 00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:47,010 So that's hands like jack 10 suited, queen 10 suited. 1131 00:48:47,010 --> 00:48:48,400 It's basically any two cards that 1132 00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:52,281 are the same suit and both 10 or higher. 1133 00:48:52,281 --> 00:48:54,280 So maybe I should just run through this quickly. 1134 00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,532 So why is having your cards be suited good? 1135 00:48:57,532 --> 00:49:00,172 AUDIENCE: You get a flush. 1136 00:49:00,172 --> 00:49:00,880 PROFESSOR: Right. 1137 00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,005 So if it suited you're more likely to make a flush. 1138 00:49:03,005 --> 00:49:05,260 But if have two unsuited cards then there's 1139 00:49:05,260 --> 00:49:07,200 two different flushes you could get. 1140 00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:11,710 If you have queens or diamonds, 10 of spades 1141 00:49:11,710 --> 00:49:14,470 is going to make a diamond flush or a spade flush. 1142 00:49:14,470 --> 00:49:16,360 Essentially, that argument is wrong 1143 00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,280 because there's two reasons why it's wrong. 1144 00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,830 One is it's not more of a play because you need four 1145 00:49:20,830 --> 00:49:22,900 of the suit to make a flush. 1146 00:49:22,900 --> 00:49:26,300 And two is, when you make the flush it's also more obvious 1147 00:49:26,300 --> 00:49:27,760 you have the flush. 1148 00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:28,260 like 1149 00:49:28,260 --> 00:49:29,980 If you only have one diamond, even 1150 00:49:29,980 --> 00:49:32,030 if it's the ace of diamonds, once there's 1151 00:49:32,030 --> 00:49:34,180 four diamonds on the board it's way more likely 1152 00:49:34,180 --> 00:49:35,099 that you have a flush. 1153 00:49:35,099 --> 00:49:36,640 So you're going to get paid off less. 1154 00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:39,067 Whereas if you have two diamonds in your hand 1155 00:49:39,067 --> 00:49:40,900 and there's only three diamonds on the board 1156 00:49:40,900 --> 00:49:43,360 it's less susceptible that you have a flush. 1157 00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,920 So high jack is three to the button. 1158 00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:52,680 So this is what I would recommend. 1159 00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:57,530 So any pair, pairs are pretty good. 1160 00:49:57,530 --> 00:50:00,010 Any suited ace, so suited ace means any card 1161 00:50:00,010 --> 00:50:03,040 with any hand with an ace and another card of the same suit. 1162 00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:04,840 Any suited connector. 1163 00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:08,020 By that I mean hands like basically two cards 1164 00:50:08,020 --> 00:50:11,900 that are next to each other and also the same suit, like 10, 1165 00:50:11,900 --> 00:50:12,400 9-- 1166 00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:13,960 10 of spades, nine of spades. 1167 00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:17,320 Or any two unsuited Broadway cards. 1168 00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:20,000 So I do use a lot of terminology here. 1169 00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:23,597 So yeah, please stop me if something is unclear. 1170 00:50:23,597 --> 00:50:25,180 You can google most of these, I think. 1171 00:50:33,509 --> 00:50:34,800 And suited connectors are good. 1172 00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:36,910 So like a hand like seven, six suited 1173 00:50:36,910 --> 00:50:40,297 is often better than a hand like 10, 6 suited, 1174 00:50:40,297 --> 00:50:42,130 even though the trend is bigger than the six 1175 00:50:42,130 --> 00:50:44,485 because ten is sort of a small enough card where 1176 00:50:44,485 --> 00:50:47,020 it's not that relevant, the fact that it's a big card. 1177 00:50:47,020 --> 00:50:48,960 But the fact that seven, six is connected 1178 00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:52,774 and can hit a lot more straights is very relevant. 1179 00:50:52,774 --> 00:50:54,190 So we're if we're cut off I'm just 1180 00:50:54,190 --> 00:50:56,148 going to show you on PokerStove because there's 1181 00:50:56,148 --> 00:50:57,090 too many to list. 1182 00:50:57,090 --> 00:50:59,620 But the thing I want you to know is the percentages. 1183 00:50:59,620 --> 00:51:01,130 30%. 1184 00:51:01,130 --> 00:51:04,380 So remember, under the gun I recommended playing 6%. 1185 00:51:04,380 --> 00:51:08,070 So we've multiplied how bad our hand could 1186 00:51:08,070 --> 00:51:10,050 be for us to play by five. 1187 00:51:10,050 --> 00:51:13,030 And I think this is what I really want you to try to do. 1188 00:51:13,030 --> 00:51:14,640 And I think what a lot of new players 1189 00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:17,181 don't do enough is they always play the same cards regardless 1190 00:51:17,181 --> 00:51:17,969 of their position. 1191 00:51:17,969 --> 00:51:19,510 And then even crazier, on the button, 1192 00:51:19,510 --> 00:51:21,340 if everyone in front of you folds, 1193 00:51:21,340 --> 00:51:24,210 I recommend them playing about 55% of hands. 1194 00:51:24,210 --> 00:51:24,990 This is huge. 1195 00:51:24,990 --> 00:51:27,540 I want you to play jack three suited. 1196 00:51:27,540 --> 00:51:30,110 Who thinks jack three suited is a good hand? 1197 00:51:30,110 --> 00:51:33,430 Or king four off-suit, or queen six off-suit. 1198 00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:38,670 What hands do we play from the small blind 1199 00:51:38,670 --> 00:51:40,920 if it's folded to you? 1200 00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:44,070 So let's compare opening from the small blind to opening 1201 00:51:44,070 --> 00:51:44,757 from the button. 1202 00:51:44,757 --> 00:51:46,590 So for small blind it's a bit different now. 1203 00:51:49,470 --> 00:51:51,840 So I should mention this because when 1204 00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:56,550 you're raising from the button, from the dealer, if you get 1205 00:51:56,550 --> 00:51:59,737 called you get to act last post-flop. 1206 00:51:59,737 --> 00:52:02,070 So I'm going to talk more about this in future lectures. 1207 00:52:02,070 --> 00:52:06,030 But this is basically called having position post-flop. 1208 00:52:06,030 --> 00:52:08,090 And having position is basically good. 1209 00:52:08,090 --> 00:52:08,637 Yeah. 1210 00:52:08,637 --> 00:52:10,220 AUDIENCE: For all these hands, are you 1211 00:52:10,220 --> 00:52:12,140 assuming that everyone's folding behind you? 1212 00:52:12,140 --> 00:52:13,440 PROFESSOR: Yes, yes. 1213 00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:16,117 If people haven't folded, essentially, I'll 1214 00:52:16,117 --> 00:52:17,700 talk more about this in future classes 1215 00:52:17,700 --> 00:52:20,130 but essentially what you need to do if-- 1216 00:52:20,130 --> 00:52:24,480 so let let's say this guy raised and you're the button. 1217 00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:28,230 Essentially you need to consider what his range is 1218 00:52:28,230 --> 00:52:30,410 and calculate your equity against his range, which 1219 00:52:30,410 --> 00:52:30,910 you can do-- 1220 00:52:30,910 --> 00:52:32,620 AUDIENCE: The calculation is completely different. 1221 00:52:32,620 --> 00:52:33,260 PROFESSOR: Right. 1222 00:52:33,260 --> 00:52:35,093 So the calculation is essentially completely 1223 00:52:35,093 --> 00:52:36,120 different. 1224 00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,690 So essentially the first guy who raised 1225 00:52:39,690 --> 00:52:42,845 determines what the barrier to entry to the pot is. 1226 00:52:42,845 --> 00:52:44,220 Because essentially the first guy 1227 00:52:44,220 --> 00:52:47,340 that raises, if it's from under the gun, he's telling you, 1228 00:52:47,340 --> 00:52:49,234 my range is pocket eights plus. 1229 00:52:49,234 --> 00:52:50,775 Even if he's sort of loose it's still 1230 00:52:50,775 --> 00:52:55,650 going to be pocket fours plus and queen 10 suited plus. 1231 00:52:55,650 --> 00:53:00,240 Basically it's saying, if you're playing eight six suited then 1232 00:53:00,240 --> 00:53:03,210 you're basically in idiot, because my range is 1233 00:53:03,210 --> 00:53:04,090 way better than that. 1234 00:53:04,090 --> 00:53:07,140 So essentially the first guy who plays this hand sort of 1235 00:53:07,140 --> 00:53:10,820 sets the tone on how good your hand needs to be. 1236 00:53:17,049 --> 00:53:18,090 Thanks for that question. 1237 00:53:18,090 --> 00:53:20,131 So I'll talk more about this in a future lecture. 1238 00:53:20,131 --> 00:53:24,120 But essentially that's what you need to do. 1239 00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:27,200 So from the small blind let's compare opening the small blind 1240 00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:28,830 from opening the button. 1241 00:53:28,830 --> 00:53:30,970 So the issue with opening the small blind 1242 00:53:30,970 --> 00:53:32,671 is if the big blind calls you actually 1243 00:53:32,671 --> 00:53:33,920 don't have position post-flop. 1244 00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,040 The big blind gets to act after you post-flop. 1245 00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:36,660 Pot. 1246 00:53:36,660 --> 00:53:38,700 So it's actually a lot worse in some sense 1247 00:53:38,700 --> 00:53:40,366 than opening from the button because you 1248 00:53:40,366 --> 00:53:41,370 don't get you act last. 1249 00:53:41,370 --> 00:53:44,530 But it is better in the sense that there's one fewer person 1250 00:53:44,530 --> 00:53:45,330 to get through. 1251 00:53:45,330 --> 00:53:47,880 And also, you have less to wager, which is actually 1252 00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:51,510 really relevant because from the button, 1253 00:53:51,510 --> 00:53:57,910 if the blinds are 2,000 or 1,000 or OK, let's just dictate it. 1254 00:53:57,910 --> 00:53:59,790 So if the blinds are 20, 40, if you 1255 00:53:59,790 --> 00:54:02,730 want to steal the lines from the button and you want to do 2.25 1256 00:54:02,730 --> 00:54:04,080 you need to put in 90. 1257 00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:06,530 You raise me 90 and you need to wager 90. 1258 00:54:06,530 --> 00:54:08,280 But if you're raising from the small blind 1259 00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:10,500 you only need to put in 70 more. 1260 00:54:10,500 --> 00:54:12,540 So you're actually paying a smaller price 1261 00:54:12,540 --> 00:54:14,414 to try to steal the blinds. 1262 00:54:14,414 --> 00:54:16,080 But the fact that you're out of position 1263 00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:18,212 is a very important negative. 1264 00:54:18,212 --> 00:54:19,920 So I'd say all these factors balance out. 1265 00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,140 And you can roughly play the same range of hands 1266 00:54:22,140 --> 00:54:24,570 from the small blind as you would from the big blind. 1267 00:54:24,570 --> 00:54:26,984 I think that's a reasonable rule of thumb. 1268 00:54:26,984 --> 00:54:28,650 But the fact that you're out of position 1269 00:54:28,650 --> 00:54:31,770 hurts a lot less as stacks get shallower, essentially 1270 00:54:31,770 --> 00:54:35,900 as effective stack sizes get a lot smaller. 1271 00:54:35,900 --> 00:54:39,200 So you could really drastically increase this range 1272 00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,726 if you only have 10 big blinds from the small blind. 1273 00:54:45,980 --> 00:54:48,050 So let me just give a few caveats about this. 1274 00:54:48,050 --> 00:54:49,675 So actually, I'll leave it to you guys. 1275 00:54:49,675 --> 00:54:51,620 If someone comes up with a very good complaint 1276 00:54:51,620 --> 00:54:53,810 about these recommendations I'm giving you 1277 00:54:53,810 --> 00:54:57,120 I'll give up the last $20 gift card. 1278 00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:59,447 So what are some problems? 1279 00:54:59,447 --> 00:55:01,530 Normally I get lots of complaints in this section. 1280 00:55:01,530 --> 00:55:03,420 You already got one but you can answer. 1281 00:55:03,420 --> 00:55:04,000 Yeah. 1282 00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:07,204 AUDIENCE: They're very predictable so it's unusable. 1283 00:55:07,204 --> 00:55:07,870 PROFESSOR: Good. 1284 00:55:07,870 --> 00:55:09,026 That's a very good point. 1285 00:55:09,026 --> 00:55:11,150 A lot of people ask me, why would you follow these? 1286 00:55:11,150 --> 00:55:13,310 If I follow these everyone knows what I'm doing. 1287 00:55:13,310 --> 00:55:19,690 Well the point is, for most of these, even this range, 1288 00:55:19,690 --> 00:55:21,950 it sort of encompasses enough hands. 1289 00:55:21,950 --> 00:55:25,280 So this is where I'm talking about optimal balance play. 1290 00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:28,100 I think even though humans haven't solved poker, 1291 00:55:28,100 --> 00:55:31,100 I think roughly, if you want to ask, 1292 00:55:31,100 --> 00:55:34,720 I would guess that roughly the optimal range of hands 1293 00:55:34,720 --> 00:55:36,851 you open from this position is something like this. 1294 00:55:36,851 --> 00:55:37,850 It's going to be looser. 1295 00:55:37,850 --> 00:55:39,920 But it's something roughly like this. 1296 00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:44,180 Probably you want to probabilistic play some smaller 1297 00:55:44,180 --> 00:55:46,980 cards just so when the flop comes 2, 2, 4, 1298 00:55:46,980 --> 00:55:48,382 you can potentially have a two. 1299 00:55:48,382 --> 00:55:50,090 But essentially you're not doing bad here 1300 00:55:50,090 --> 00:55:53,712 because if the flop comes three small cards then 1301 00:55:53,712 --> 00:55:55,670 you were going to be doing pretty well with all 1302 00:55:55,670 --> 00:55:56,930 your big pairs. 1303 00:55:56,930 --> 00:55:58,940 And if the flop comes the big cards 1304 00:55:58,940 --> 00:56:04,630 you've still got ace king, ace queen, ace jack in your hand. 1305 00:56:04,630 --> 00:56:10,520 But not that is a good complaint. 1306 00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:13,450 So in theory, it's in theory optimal 1307 00:56:13,450 --> 00:56:16,630 to play seven seven some fraction of the time, 1308 00:56:16,630 --> 00:56:18,330 six six some fraction of the time, 1309 00:56:18,330 --> 00:56:20,060 and two two some fraction of the time. 1310 00:56:20,060 --> 00:56:23,286 But that's making things really complicated. 1311 00:56:23,286 --> 00:56:24,910 I don't want to add two two to the list 1312 00:56:24,910 --> 00:56:26,900 because if you play two two every single time 1313 00:56:26,900 --> 00:56:28,070 then that's way too loose. 1314 00:56:28,070 --> 00:56:30,440 You're just spewing money by raising with two two 1315 00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:32,810 against this many players behind. 1316 00:56:32,810 --> 00:56:34,580 So ideally maybe with two twos you 1317 00:56:34,580 --> 00:56:37,242 should do a random number generator and 10% 1318 00:56:37,242 --> 00:56:38,450 of the time you play two two. 1319 00:56:38,450 --> 00:56:40,870 That would probably be theoretically optimal. 1320 00:56:40,870 --> 00:56:42,594 OK, good. 1321 00:56:42,594 --> 00:56:43,760 That would have gotten this. 1322 00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:44,800 But OK, I'll give it to-- 1323 00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:45,274 Yeah. 1324 00:56:45,274 --> 00:56:47,482 AUDIENCE: I think another problem with playing really 1325 00:56:47,482 --> 00:56:50,070 tight all the time is that you are also very easily 1326 00:56:50,070 --> 00:56:51,870 bullied around the table. 1327 00:56:51,870 --> 00:56:54,386 If someone bets and you really want to play, 1328 00:56:54,386 --> 00:56:56,760 you really want to stick to your tight range, you'll fold 1329 00:56:56,760 --> 00:56:58,860 and you'll maybe miss out on something 1330 00:56:58,860 --> 00:57:00,535 that you shouldn't have depending 1331 00:57:00,535 --> 00:57:02,160 on your position, and things like that. 1332 00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:02,430 PROFESSOR: OK. 1333 00:57:02,430 --> 00:57:02,930 Good. 1334 00:57:02,930 --> 00:57:06,560 So yes, these are pretty tight in that it 1335 00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:08,450 does give the other people incentive 1336 00:57:08,450 --> 00:57:10,100 to raise a lot because everyone's 1337 00:57:10,100 --> 00:57:12,350 going to be folding a lot because you are just waiting 1338 00:57:12,350 --> 00:57:14,260 for these really good hands. 1339 00:57:14,260 --> 00:57:15,170 OK. 1340 00:57:15,170 --> 00:57:17,361 That's good. 1341 00:57:17,361 --> 00:57:19,652 Are there any other questions about these suggestions I 1342 00:57:19,652 --> 00:57:21,500 gave you guys? 1343 00:57:21,500 --> 00:57:25,104 Or are there other potential complaints? 1344 00:57:25,104 --> 00:57:27,020 I'm going to give this gift certificate to you 1345 00:57:27,020 --> 00:57:32,520 unless someone thinks that they have another complaint. 1346 00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:34,762 So I'll give this to you at the end. 1347 00:57:42,330 --> 00:57:45,450 This is one thing that I didn't really address. 1348 00:57:45,450 --> 00:57:48,780 I talked about going all in as well as just raising. 1349 00:57:48,780 --> 00:57:52,130 So how do these ranges differ? 1350 00:57:52,130 --> 00:57:55,610 The answer essentially is they don't really differ. 1351 00:57:55,610 --> 00:57:58,484 So let's say, here, these are the hands I told you to play. 1352 00:57:58,484 --> 00:58:00,150 Let's say you were sort of small enough, 1353 00:58:00,150 --> 00:58:03,294 you only had 12 big blinds with antes 1354 00:58:03,294 --> 00:58:04,710 and you were supposed to go all in 1355 00:58:04,710 --> 00:58:07,920 instead of raise, which of these hands do you go all in with? 1356 00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:10,807 It's roughly the same range. 1357 00:58:10,807 --> 00:58:12,390 I think that's a decent rule of thumb. 1358 00:58:12,390 --> 00:58:14,460 If you just go all in with the same range 1359 00:58:14,460 --> 00:58:17,850 you're not going to be doing badly. 1360 00:58:17,850 --> 00:58:20,790 But when the effective stack size is much smaller, 1361 00:58:20,790 --> 00:58:22,860 like let's say you only have three big blinds, 1362 00:58:22,860 --> 00:58:26,850 then you can drastically increase this range. 1363 00:58:26,850 --> 00:58:29,250 So when your effective stack size 1364 00:58:29,250 --> 00:58:33,910 is actually say 10, or let's say your effective stack size is 1365 00:58:33,910 --> 00:58:39,110 five big blinds, intuitively you might think, I can wager a lot, 1366 00:58:39,110 --> 00:58:41,570 I can wager a lot wider range of hands. 1367 00:58:41,570 --> 00:58:42,690 So here's the argument. 1368 00:58:42,690 --> 00:58:46,740 The argument is I'm only risking five big blinds. 1369 00:58:46,740 --> 00:58:50,070 In the other case I was risking 12 big blinds. 1370 00:58:50,070 --> 00:58:53,350 I should be way more aggressive with five big blinds 1371 00:58:53,350 --> 00:58:54,840 than 12 big blinds. 1372 00:58:54,840 --> 00:58:55,830 So that's the argument. 1373 00:58:55,830 --> 00:58:57,660 But the reason why that argument is wrong 1374 00:58:57,660 --> 00:58:59,610 is because with five big blinds you're 1375 00:58:59,610 --> 00:59:01,242 going to get called every time. 1376 00:59:01,242 --> 00:59:02,700 With five big blinds you can't just 1377 00:59:02,700 --> 00:59:04,260 go all in with seven two off-suit 1378 00:59:04,260 --> 00:59:06,480 because your opponent has such good odds to call, 1379 00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:07,620 they're going to call you. 1380 00:59:07,620 --> 00:59:10,470 Whereas with 12 big blinds, even though you're risking more 1381 00:59:10,470 --> 00:59:13,140 you also have more chances of getting everyone to fold. 1382 00:59:13,140 --> 00:59:15,400 So even though it seems like you're risking way more, 1383 00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:16,860 in some sense you're not. 1384 00:59:16,860 --> 00:59:19,380 Because the more chips you are risking the more likely 1385 00:59:19,380 --> 00:59:21,490 it is that everyone else folds. 1386 00:59:21,490 --> 00:59:23,620 Does that argument make sense to everyone? 1387 00:59:23,620 --> 00:59:24,750 So make sure you don't get tricked by that 1388 00:59:24,750 --> 00:59:26,166 because it is easy to get tricked. 1389 00:59:26,166 --> 00:59:29,910 But the fact that when you're risking more 1390 00:59:29,910 --> 00:59:31,500 you're getting people to fold more 1391 00:59:31,500 --> 00:59:32,880 means you're actually not risking 1392 00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:34,970 as much as you think you are. 1393 00:59:34,970 --> 00:59:36,420 And that's a common fallacy. 1394 00:59:41,590 --> 00:59:43,330 So we're near the last part of the class. 1395 00:59:43,330 --> 00:59:44,980 So are there any other questions? 1396 00:59:44,980 --> 00:59:47,396 I know some of you probably want to start playing tonight, 1397 00:59:47,396 --> 00:59:51,640 and I definitely did not address everything you need. 1398 00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:53,830 But are there any other questions 1399 00:59:53,830 --> 00:59:55,660 roughly, in terms of opening and going 1400 00:59:55,660 --> 01:00:01,114 all in that you might want to know before playing tonight? 1401 01:00:01,114 --> 01:00:03,280 Because I do think we have maybe five extra minutes. 1402 01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:04,995 So I can answer some questions. 1403 01:00:04,995 --> 01:00:07,120 Does everyone not know what the term "bluff" means? 1404 01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:08,578 I said bluff a bunch of times but I 1405 01:00:08,578 --> 01:00:09,850 realized I never explained. 1406 01:00:09,850 --> 01:00:14,890 So bluffing essentially means you have a bad hand 1407 01:00:14,890 --> 01:00:16,810 and because you have such a bad hand you 1408 01:00:16,810 --> 01:00:19,450 know the only way of winning that is to get your opponent 1409 01:00:19,450 --> 01:00:20,320 fold. 1410 01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:24,250 So basically you bet big to hope that your opponent folds. 1411 01:00:24,250 --> 01:00:26,500 If you have a better hand, like an average hand, 1412 01:00:26,500 --> 01:00:28,660 often you actually don't want to be betting 1413 01:00:28,660 --> 01:00:29,754 because there's no point. 1414 01:00:29,754 --> 01:00:31,920 Because when you bet you're essentially just getting 1415 01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:34,359 adversely selected, where your opponent calls you 1416 01:00:34,359 --> 01:00:36,400 when their hand is better and you lose more money 1417 01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:37,261 to a better hand. 1418 01:00:37,261 --> 01:00:39,260 And your opponent folds when their hand is worse 1419 01:00:39,260 --> 01:00:41,590 so you're not making any money from a worse hand. 1420 01:00:41,590 --> 01:00:43,030 And then with your best hands, you 1421 01:00:43,030 --> 01:00:45,880 want to bet to try to get your opponent to call and increase 1422 01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:47,290 the amount that you win. 1423 01:00:47,290 --> 01:00:48,850 And we call this value betting. 1424 01:00:48,850 --> 01:00:52,169 So I'm going to get more into this in future lechers. 1425 01:00:52,169 --> 01:00:54,460 But essentially in poker, the paradigm you want to play 1426 01:00:54,460 --> 01:00:57,610 is you want to value bet your very best hands 1427 01:00:57,610 --> 01:00:59,810 and then you want to basically check and try 1428 01:00:59,810 --> 01:01:03,010 to get to show down, like try to show your hand on the river 1429 01:01:03,010 --> 01:01:04,390 with your medium hands. 1430 01:01:04,390 --> 01:01:07,165 And also bet with your bad hands to try to get your opponent 1431 01:01:07,165 --> 01:01:08,760 to fold better hands. 1432 01:01:11,337 --> 01:01:12,920 I'm going to get to the last part now. 1433 01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:14,660 So quick test. 1434 01:01:14,660 --> 01:01:16,720 So here what would you do? 1435 01:01:16,720 --> 01:01:17,580 It's folded to you. 1436 01:01:17,580 --> 01:01:18,580 You're in the high jack. 1437 01:01:18,580 --> 01:01:21,770 You have ace, five of clubs. 1438 01:01:21,770 --> 01:01:24,030 So someone want to suggest what would you do? 1439 01:01:24,030 --> 01:01:26,770 What would your play be? 1440 01:01:26,770 --> 01:01:27,530 AUDIENCE: Call. 1441 01:01:27,530 --> 01:01:28,390 AUDIENCE: Bet. 1442 01:01:28,390 --> 01:01:29,120 AUDIENCE: Raise. 1443 01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:29,473 PROFESSOR: Raise. 1444 01:01:29,473 --> 01:01:29,826 OK, good. 1445 01:01:29,826 --> 01:01:30,326 Raise. 1446 01:01:30,326 --> 01:01:31,810 So not call. 1447 01:01:31,810 --> 01:01:33,490 That was mistake number one to not do. 1448 01:01:33,490 --> 01:01:35,615 You always want to raise the blinds if it's folded. 1449 01:01:35,615 --> 01:01:37,190 But it's fine, it's fine. 1450 01:01:37,190 --> 01:01:37,690 That's fine. 1451 01:01:37,690 --> 01:01:39,940 We're all here to learn about these hands. 1452 01:01:39,940 --> 01:01:42,010 Now should I go all in or should I just raise 1453 01:01:42,010 --> 01:01:48,880 to 450, which is 2.25? 1454 01:01:48,880 --> 01:01:49,790 I should go all in. 1455 01:01:49,790 --> 01:01:50,596 OK. 1456 01:01:50,596 --> 01:01:52,720 I think it's not terrible if you just raise to 450. 1457 01:01:52,720 --> 01:01:55,330 But I said if it's 10 big blinds-- there's no 1458 01:01:55,330 --> 01:01:58,330 antes so you need 10 or less. 1459 01:01:58,330 --> 01:02:00,640 And you have 10, so going all in I think is fine. 1460 01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,130 So we decide to go all in. 1461 01:02:07,090 --> 01:02:08,900 So there are Nash calculators. 1462 01:02:08,900 --> 01:02:09,790 They're complicated. 1463 01:02:09,790 --> 01:02:12,310 But if you run this through a Nash equilibrium calculator 1464 01:02:12,310 --> 01:02:16,390 this is roughly what you should be going all in with. 1465 01:02:16,390 --> 01:02:17,166 So we go all in. 1466 01:02:17,166 --> 01:02:19,790 So this range is a bit different than what I showed you before. 1467 01:02:19,790 --> 01:02:23,440 This is an actual Nash calculation just not 1468 01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:24,584 just my recommendation. 1469 01:02:24,584 --> 01:02:27,250 It's going to be wider than what you saw before but that's fine. 1470 01:02:29,862 --> 01:02:30,820 So now you're this guy. 1471 01:02:30,820 --> 01:02:32,290 You're seat nine. 1472 01:02:32,290 --> 01:02:35,590 So I'm going to show you how you do a quick calculation of what 1473 01:02:35,590 --> 01:02:37,050 equity you need to call here. 1474 01:02:40,140 --> 01:02:43,780 So what equity you need to call here. 1475 01:02:43,780 --> 01:02:45,550 A straight up pot odds calculation 1476 01:02:45,550 --> 01:02:50,500 says you're getting 23 to 20 or 1.15 to 1. 1477 01:02:50,500 --> 01:02:54,880 So roughly you need 46.5% equity to call as this player. 1478 01:02:54,880 --> 01:02:56,595 But there's two players behind. 1479 01:02:56,595 --> 01:02:58,720 There is a graphics glitch because seat one has not 1480 01:02:58,720 --> 01:02:59,219 folded. 1481 01:02:59,219 --> 01:03:01,270 Seat one and seat two both has cards. 1482 01:03:01,270 --> 01:03:04,330 So you actually need more than 46.5% 1483 01:03:04,330 --> 01:03:07,450 equity because the calculation of 46.5% 1484 01:03:07,450 --> 01:03:10,750 assumes seat one and seat two can't wake up with pocket aces. 1485 01:03:13,215 --> 01:03:14,590 PokerStove is very good for this. 1486 01:03:14,590 --> 01:03:15,580 And you can do this right now. 1487 01:03:15,580 --> 01:03:18,121 I've taught you everything you need to do these calculations. 1488 01:03:18,121 --> 01:03:21,455 And PokerStove is also easy to figure out how to use. 1489 01:03:21,455 --> 01:03:22,830 You can essentially just plug in. 1490 01:03:22,830 --> 01:03:26,070 You look at pocket fives, it has 48%. 1491 01:03:26,070 --> 01:03:28,300 You need 46.5%. 1492 01:03:28,300 --> 01:03:31,390 And I said you need a bit more than 46.5 due to the fact 1493 01:03:31,390 --> 01:03:33,850 that there's two players behind so pocket fives, 1494 01:03:33,850 --> 01:03:34,900 it's good enough. 1495 01:03:34,900 --> 01:03:36,760 Well, I'll call ace nine suited. 1496 01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:37,810 I'll call. 1497 01:03:37,810 --> 01:03:40,420 So I'm just showing you some calculations on PokerStove. 1498 01:03:40,420 --> 01:03:43,210 It really is a really good tool. 1499 01:03:43,210 --> 01:03:44,680 So you can do some calculations. 1500 01:03:47,960 --> 01:03:51,640 So basically they call. 1501 01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:53,740 And the hands I showed you here is actually 1502 01:03:53,740 --> 01:03:56,160 sort of the worse hands that it's plus CV to call with. 1503 01:03:56,160 --> 01:03:58,990 Pocket fives, ace nines suited plus. 1504 01:03:58,990 --> 01:04:01,791 So aces nines suited plus means ace nine suited, ace 10 suited, 1505 01:04:01,791 --> 01:04:03,790 ace jack suited, all the hands that are strictly 1506 01:04:03,790 --> 01:04:05,230 better than ace nine suited. 1507 01:04:05,230 --> 01:04:07,862 Ace 10 off-suit, king queen suited. 1508 01:04:10,590 --> 01:04:14,401 As the last player here, do you call with king queen suited? 1509 01:04:14,401 --> 01:04:15,400 It's just a rough guess. 1510 01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:16,660 How many of you intuitively would 1511 01:04:16,660 --> 01:04:17,826 call with king queen suited? 1512 01:04:17,826 --> 01:04:21,600 Two players have already gone all in. 1513 01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:23,590 So most of people would fold. 1514 01:04:23,590 --> 01:04:24,910 Oh, you guys would call. 1515 01:04:24,910 --> 01:04:27,100 So it turns out, at least according 1516 01:04:27,100 --> 01:04:30,040 to the Nash calculator-- 1517 01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:31,714 So here you calculate the pot odds. 1518 01:04:31,714 --> 01:04:34,380 And this is an exact calculation because there's no more players 1519 01:04:34,380 --> 01:04:34,880 behind. 1520 01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:40,960 So just calculate, do I have 29.5% accurate? 1521 01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:43,990 Basically if I assume that player one and player two 1522 01:04:43,990 --> 01:04:47,710 are playing according to Nash equilibrium or optimal ranges, 1523 01:04:47,710 --> 01:04:49,900 you actually have way more than enough. 1524 01:04:49,900 --> 01:04:53,230 You actually have 34% where you only needed 25%. 1525 01:04:53,230 --> 01:04:55,470 So this is a trick question I set up. 1526 01:04:55,470 --> 01:04:59,710 The trick was king queen suited doesn't seem like a good hand. 1527 01:04:59,710 --> 01:05:03,160 But against two other hands it's actually relatively a very good 1528 01:05:03,160 --> 01:05:03,765 hand. 1529 01:05:03,765 --> 01:05:05,890 Against one other hand, they could just have a pair 1530 01:05:05,890 --> 01:05:06,640 and you're behind. 1531 01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:09,130 They could have an ace most of the time and you're behind. 1532 01:05:09,130 --> 01:05:10,796 But against two other hands you actually 1533 01:05:10,796 --> 01:05:13,300 have really good equity because when you hit a king or queen 1534 01:05:13,300 --> 01:05:14,267 you have the big pair. 1535 01:05:14,267 --> 01:05:15,850 You can also hit straights and flushes 1536 01:05:15,850 --> 01:05:17,050 with king queens suited. 1537 01:05:17,050 --> 01:05:22,300 And your equity against two other hands is very good. 1538 01:05:22,300 --> 01:05:25,420 So you have way more than enough so they call. 1539 01:05:25,420 --> 01:05:27,940 So we're going to get in this all in freefall. 1540 01:05:27,940 --> 01:05:31,826 So who are the people I gave these cards to? 1541 01:05:31,826 --> 01:05:33,200 You guys can come up to the front 1542 01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:35,275 and I'm going to hand you your cards. 1543 01:05:35,275 --> 01:05:38,220 The people who I gave these gift certificates to, I said. 1544 01:05:48,222 --> 01:05:49,930 AUDIENCE: Do you want me to stay up here? 1545 01:05:49,930 --> 01:05:50,380 PROFESSOR: Yeah. 1546 01:05:50,380 --> 01:05:50,921 Stay up here. 1547 01:05:54,950 --> 01:05:56,380 So what I want you guys to do-- 1548 01:05:56,380 --> 01:05:58,213 these are the hands people went all in with. 1549 01:05:58,213 --> 01:06:00,480 Who was the first person to answer? 1550 01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:00,980 OK. 1551 01:06:00,980 --> 01:06:01,880 So you get to pick. 1552 01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:03,000 Which hand do you want? 1553 01:06:05,802 --> 01:06:07,537 AUDIENCE: I'll go with jack jack. 1554 01:06:07,537 --> 01:06:08,120 PROFESSOR: OK. 1555 01:06:08,120 --> 01:06:11,300 So Colin is going to jack jack. 1556 01:06:11,300 --> 01:06:12,300 Sorry, what's your name? 1557 01:06:12,300 --> 01:06:12,810 AUDIENCE: Kevin. 1558 01:06:12,810 --> 01:06:13,220 PROFESSOR: Kevin. 1559 01:06:13,220 --> 01:06:14,090 Kevin, which hand do you want? 1560 01:06:14,090 --> 01:06:14,870 So he took jack jack. 1561 01:06:14,870 --> 01:06:16,400 Which of these remaining-- you were second, right? 1562 01:06:16,400 --> 01:06:17,100 Yeah, you were-- 1563 01:06:17,100 --> 01:06:17,340 OK. 1564 01:06:17,340 --> 01:06:17,710 AUDIENCE: I was last. 1565 01:06:17,710 --> 01:06:18,230 PROFESSOR: OK. 1566 01:06:18,230 --> 01:06:19,188 Which hand do you want? 1567 01:06:21,794 --> 01:06:22,960 AUDIENCE: I want king queen. 1568 01:06:22,960 --> 01:06:23,320 PROFESSOR: OK. 1569 01:06:23,320 --> 01:06:24,695 So he's going to take king queen. 1570 01:06:24,695 --> 01:06:28,310 So you're going to take ace five plus. 1571 01:06:28,310 --> 01:06:30,795 This is sort of mean but I want to show you guys 1572 01:06:30,795 --> 01:06:31,670 this how poker works. 1573 01:06:31,670 --> 01:06:34,697 When you've already won, you've won $20. 1574 01:06:34,697 --> 01:06:36,280 You guys are going to put in your hand 1575 01:06:36,280 --> 01:06:39,294 and whoever wins this hand is going to get all $60. 1576 01:06:39,294 --> 01:06:47,850 [LAUGHTER] 1577 01:06:47,850 --> 01:06:49,360 We're going to go for it. 1578 01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:51,170 So this is the free flow of equities. 1579 01:06:51,170 --> 01:06:54,854 So it is pre-determined. 1580 01:06:54,854 --> 01:06:56,520 So it looks like you guys did very well. 1581 01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:57,480 You guys picked correctly. 1582 01:06:57,480 --> 01:06:58,396 You got to pick first. 1583 01:06:58,396 --> 01:07:01,720 You picked the best hand with equity of 34.73. 1584 01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:02,470 You got 32.95. 1585 01:07:02,470 --> 01:07:06,558 You're only a bit behind with 31.1. 1586 01:07:06,558 --> 01:07:07,916 So the flop is 6, 7, 8. 1587 01:07:07,916 --> 01:07:09,540 So let's look at the probabilities now. 1588 01:07:09,540 --> 01:07:15,210 Jacks is still ahead, ace five has picked up a lot of outs. 1589 01:07:15,210 --> 01:07:17,420 King queen of diamonds is not looking too good 1590 01:07:17,420 --> 01:07:21,080 but they did pick up one diamond. 1591 01:07:21,080 --> 01:07:23,760 Notice the nine of hearts. 1592 01:07:23,760 --> 01:07:25,340 So, sorry. 1593 01:07:25,340 --> 01:07:26,300 Like Queens. 1594 01:07:26,300 --> 01:07:27,370 I'm sorry. 1595 01:07:27,370 --> 01:07:30,200 So you're out of the running. 1596 01:07:30,200 --> 01:07:31,786 AUDIENCE: He needs a 10. 1597 01:07:31,786 --> 01:07:32,910 PROFESSOR: 2 to 1 to cheer. 1598 01:07:32,910 --> 01:07:34,600 Is there any card you're hoping for? 1599 01:07:34,600 --> 01:07:35,600 What are you hoping for? 1600 01:07:38,596 --> 01:07:39,554 AUDIENCE: I think a 10. 1601 01:07:39,554 --> 01:07:41,855 AUDIENCE: A 10 or a heart. 1602 01:07:41,855 --> 01:07:43,480 PROFESSOR: So you want to be screaming. 1603 01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:45,313 I'm going to press it on the count of three. 1604 01:07:45,313 --> 01:07:48,630 You want to be screaming 10 or higher. 1605 01:07:48,630 --> 01:07:50,170 And you want to be screaming-- 1606 01:07:50,170 --> 01:07:51,170 AUDIENCE: Anything else. 1607 01:07:57,210 --> 01:08:00,769 PROFESSOR: So I guess you got all three of us. 1608 01:08:00,769 --> 01:08:02,560 There's going to be more of these good card 1609 01:08:02,560 --> 01:08:03,268 stories in class. 1610 01:08:03,268 --> 01:08:05,130 So participate in class, you're going 1611 01:08:05,130 --> 01:08:07,640 to get gift certificates courtesy of [? Acuma ?] 1612 01:08:07,640 --> 01:08:08,240 Capital. 1613 01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:08,740 All right. 1614 01:08:08,740 --> 01:08:10,340 Thank you guys. 1615 01:08:10,340 --> 01:08:12,190 [APPLAUSE]