1 00:00:00,150 --> 00:00:02,550 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:02,550 --> 00:00:04,090 Commons license. 3 00:00:04,090 --> 00:00:06,390 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 4 00:00:06,390 --> 00:00:10,780 continue to offer high quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:10,780 --> 00:00:13,380 To make a donation or view additional materials 6 00:00:13,380 --> 00:00:17,340 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 7 00:00:17,340 --> 00:00:18,510 at ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:22,359 --> 00:00:23,400 WILL MA: All right, guys. 9 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:24,442 I'm going to get started. 10 00:00:24,442 --> 00:00:27,150 If you haven't done attendance yet, you can do it at the break 11 00:00:27,150 --> 00:00:29,275 or afterwards. 12 00:00:29,275 --> 00:00:30,150 I think it will work. 13 00:00:30,150 --> 00:00:32,430 OK, so just a few quick announcements. 14 00:00:32,430 --> 00:00:36,000 So, homework 1 is posted and due Friday. 15 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,312 I have it up on here. 16 00:00:38,312 --> 00:00:40,020 Are there any questions about homework 1, 17 00:00:40,020 --> 00:00:42,120 or anything about the procedure? 18 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:46,350 So, Lee Marie's going to have office hours shortly 19 00:00:46,350 --> 00:00:49,934 after class, 4:30 to 5:30 in E51-145. 20 00:00:49,934 --> 00:00:52,184 So if you have any questions, you can ask her as well. 21 00:00:52,184 --> 00:00:53,720 Or you can ask me now if you think 22 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,060 they're applicable to the general class. 23 00:00:58,540 --> 00:00:59,040 OK, cool. 24 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,380 So, OK, so I'm going to proceed then. 25 00:01:01,380 --> 00:01:03,270 So I hope-- so most of you I think 26 00:01:03,270 --> 00:01:05,310 have started playing in the online tournaments. 27 00:01:05,310 --> 00:01:07,340 I hope you guys-- if you haven't, I 28 00:01:07,340 --> 00:01:09,370 hope you plan on starting soon. 29 00:01:09,370 --> 00:01:11,880 Yeah, I hope they've been fun so far. 30 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,780 OK, so today, I'm going to focus more specifically on poker 31 00:01:15,780 --> 00:01:16,700 itself. 32 00:01:16,700 --> 00:01:19,500 I know last class, I talked about a lot of general concepts 33 00:01:19,500 --> 00:01:21,030 on decision making and how to think 34 00:01:21,030 --> 00:01:24,850 about exploiting your opponent versus playing within a Nash 35 00:01:24,850 --> 00:01:25,820 equilibrium way. 36 00:01:25,820 --> 00:01:28,200 Today, I'm going to focus mostly on poker, 37 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,450 and try to give a lot of hand examples. 38 00:01:30,450 --> 00:01:33,450 And I'm going to introduce post-flop play, 39 00:01:33,450 --> 00:01:36,160 which I didn't really talk about last time-- 40 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:38,690 so basically, what happens after you see the flop. 41 00:01:38,690 --> 00:01:41,890 OK, so I'm going to just start with an example hand. 42 00:01:41,890 --> 00:01:46,890 So, we get ace-queen offsuit in hijack minus 1, 43 00:01:46,890 --> 00:01:49,780 so I think I called it lojack in the earlier slide-- 44 00:01:49,780 --> 00:01:55,410 in last class, but basically, it's four away from the button. 45 00:01:55,410 --> 00:01:57,690 So it's how many people-- 46 00:01:57,690 --> 00:02:00,780 the thing that matters is how many people behind have cards 47 00:02:00,780 --> 00:02:02,640 and could be left to act. 48 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,550 So we raise a bit bigger than 2.25 big blinds, 49 00:02:05,550 --> 00:02:07,400 but I'm not going to nitpick that for now. 50 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:09,570 So, we're a bit deeper stacked, so we 51 00:02:09,570 --> 00:02:11,640 want to build a bigger pot because we think 52 00:02:11,640 --> 00:02:14,430 we have an advantage, I guess. 53 00:02:14,430 --> 00:02:16,650 OK, so, it's folded to both blinds. 54 00:02:16,650 --> 00:02:20,400 And both blinds call OK? 55 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,780 So, the flop comes on 9-8-deuce. 56 00:02:22,780 --> 00:02:25,950 So we sort of missed the flop. 57 00:02:25,950 --> 00:02:29,530 And the small blind checks, and the big blind checks. 58 00:02:29,530 --> 00:02:33,580 OK, so what happened is clear so far? 59 00:02:33,580 --> 00:02:36,880 OK, so now, we have a decision here, essentially. 60 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,680 So first, I want to talk about checking to the preflop 61 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:40,590 aggressor. 62 00:02:40,590 --> 00:02:43,560 So this is sort of-- this is sort of a conventional way 63 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:45,100 to play. 64 00:02:45,100 --> 00:02:48,500 So, they both checked, so we were the preflop aggressor. 65 00:02:48,500 --> 00:02:50,900 So in this case, I mean by preflop aggressor, 66 00:02:50,900 --> 00:02:53,820 the person who put in the last raise preflop. 67 00:02:53,820 --> 00:02:55,920 And the reason why this is significant 68 00:02:55,920 --> 00:03:00,060 is because in some sense, we have a stronger range of hands 69 00:03:00,060 --> 00:03:02,540 than they do because we could potentially have pocket 70 00:03:02,540 --> 00:03:04,110 aces, which is the best hand. 71 00:03:04,110 --> 00:03:07,170 And it's going to be good hand on pretty much any flop. 72 00:03:07,170 --> 00:03:10,290 Whereas it's much harder-- it's much more unlikely for them 73 00:03:10,290 --> 00:03:12,900 to have pocket aces, because if they had pocket aces, 74 00:03:12,900 --> 00:03:15,240 it would be a good play, and a tempting play 75 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,010 to re-raise preflop. 76 00:03:17,010 --> 00:03:19,200 So basically, they're sort of just 77 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:22,047 recognizing the fact that on average, we're 78 00:03:22,047 --> 00:03:23,630 going to have a better hand than them. 79 00:03:23,630 --> 00:03:25,260 So they're going to check us and let 80 00:03:25,260 --> 00:03:28,380 us bet because in general, on average, they would 81 00:03:28,380 --> 00:03:30,280 prefer if the pot was smaller. 82 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,010 And we would prefer if the pot was bigger 83 00:03:32,010 --> 00:03:33,176 because our range is better. 84 00:03:35,820 --> 00:03:38,070 Yeah, so they both check to us. 85 00:03:38,070 --> 00:03:40,650 And right, so, like let's say they had a pretty good hand. 86 00:03:40,650 --> 00:03:44,460 Like, let's say small blind had 10, 9 suited or something, 87 00:03:44,460 --> 00:03:47,670 which is the top pair-- so the highest pair on this board. 88 00:03:47,670 --> 00:03:49,500 That's a pretty good hand. 89 00:03:49,500 --> 00:03:52,740 But that's still a hand that loses to pocket aces. 90 00:03:52,740 --> 00:03:56,370 And there's still the risk if he bets out with 10, 9, 91 00:03:56,370 --> 00:03:57,630 we could just raise. 92 00:03:57,630 --> 00:03:59,460 And then he has to be worried, you know, 93 00:03:59,460 --> 00:04:00,890 do we have pocket aces? 94 00:04:00,890 --> 00:04:03,510 There's basically always going to be this worry of pocket aces 95 00:04:03,510 --> 00:04:05,910 and pocket kings, and just big pairs 96 00:04:05,910 --> 00:04:09,840 that he has to worry about that we have to worry about less. 97 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:11,940 Occasionally, someone there probably 98 00:04:11,940 --> 00:04:14,929 should slow play pocket aces preflop and just call. 99 00:04:14,929 --> 00:04:17,220 But most of the time, it will be a better idea for them 100 00:04:17,220 --> 00:04:19,950 to re-raise to get more money in preflop. 101 00:04:19,950 --> 00:04:22,680 So that's why they both check to us. 102 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,110 So now, we have the opportunity to bet or to check back. 103 00:04:26,110 --> 00:04:28,357 So, let me first check what-- how big 104 00:04:28,357 --> 00:04:30,090 to bet if we decide to bet. 105 00:04:30,090 --> 00:04:34,680 So here, we bet 200 into 375, which is about half the pot. 106 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,070 And so, between betting big and betting small, 107 00:04:38,070 --> 00:04:41,460 it's sort of the same principles I talked about last class 108 00:04:41,460 --> 00:04:44,940 between raising big and raising small preflop. 109 00:04:44,940 --> 00:04:48,740 So the advantage of betting small-- 110 00:04:48,740 --> 00:04:50,940 so, the disadvantage of betting small 111 00:04:50,940 --> 00:04:54,000 is that you give your opponent better odds to call. 112 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,814 So like let's say they have, I don't know, like Jack, 10 here, 113 00:04:56,814 --> 00:04:57,980 a hand that's losing to you. 114 00:04:57,980 --> 00:05:01,150 They have the better odds to call and a cheaper price 115 00:05:01,150 --> 00:05:03,480 to call to see another card to try and beat you. 116 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:05,677 But on the other hand, our hand isn't amazing. 117 00:05:05,677 --> 00:05:07,260 Our hand isn't good here, essentially. 118 00:05:07,260 --> 00:05:08,176 We've missed the flop. 119 00:05:08,176 --> 00:05:09,510 We haven't paired our hand. 120 00:05:09,510 --> 00:05:12,570 And if we get raised, we're probably going to have to fold. 121 00:05:12,570 --> 00:05:15,460 And the more we bet, the more we lose when we get raised. 122 00:05:15,460 --> 00:05:17,340 So it's the same sweet spot principles. 123 00:05:17,340 --> 00:05:19,650 If you bet too small, you get called too often 124 00:05:19,650 --> 00:05:22,352 by worse hands that just have good odds to call. 125 00:05:22,352 --> 00:05:23,810 And if you get too big, you're just 126 00:05:23,810 --> 00:05:25,710 losing a lot when you get raised. 127 00:05:25,710 --> 00:05:29,690 So a good rule of thumb is to bet half the pot on the flop 128 00:05:29,690 --> 00:05:32,180 and then like a slightly bigger percentage on the turn, 129 00:05:32,180 --> 00:05:36,650 like 60%, and then an even bigger percentage on the river, 130 00:05:36,650 --> 00:05:38,510 like 70% or something. 131 00:05:38,510 --> 00:05:40,250 Something like that is about reasonable. 132 00:05:40,250 --> 00:05:42,920 You could bet up to like 100% of the pot on the river. 133 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:45,830 So I'd say just somewhere between 50% to 100% of the pot 134 00:05:45,830 --> 00:05:47,690 is a good amount to bet. 135 00:05:47,690 --> 00:05:52,130 And the fraction should increase as you get closer to the river. 136 00:05:52,130 --> 00:05:55,260 So this might seem slightly contradictory, 137 00:05:55,260 --> 00:05:57,770 because what I said last class was 138 00:05:57,770 --> 00:05:59,312 you were able to-- last class, I said 139 00:05:59,312 --> 00:06:01,603 you want to give your opponent-- you don't want to give 140 00:06:01,603 --> 00:06:02,930 your opponent great odds. 141 00:06:02,930 --> 00:06:05,710 But in some sense, if we get to the river, 142 00:06:05,710 --> 00:06:08,110 right, all the cards have come out. 143 00:06:08,110 --> 00:06:10,280 There's no more unknown cards. 144 00:06:10,280 --> 00:06:12,680 So either they had the better hand 145 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,450 or we have the better hand. 146 00:06:14,450 --> 00:06:18,080 But there's going to be no uncertainty in what cards 147 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:19,100 could still come. 148 00:06:19,100 --> 00:06:21,110 So in some sense, you might think 149 00:06:21,110 --> 00:06:24,290 it's more intuitive to bet smaller on the turn and river 150 00:06:24,290 --> 00:06:26,360 and bigger on the flop, because on the flop, 151 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,660 they have more chances to outdraw us, 152 00:06:29,660 --> 00:06:32,785 whereas on the turn and river, they have fewer. 153 00:06:32,785 --> 00:06:35,089 But let me just find the-- 154 00:06:35,089 --> 00:06:36,880 all right, now I don't have to stand there. 155 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,740 OK, so this might seem contradictory, right? 156 00:06:39,740 --> 00:06:42,650 So I'm saying that bigger on the river, but on the river, 157 00:06:42,650 --> 00:06:45,130 they actually have in some sense-- 158 00:06:45,130 --> 00:06:47,580 on the river, there is-- 159 00:06:47,580 --> 00:06:49,920 it's more determined whether their hand is good or not. 160 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:50,910 So why is this? 161 00:06:50,910 --> 00:06:53,700 Why do we want to bet bigger on the turn than the flop, 162 00:06:53,700 --> 00:06:57,200 whereas on the flop, any hand sort of has closer to 50% 163 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,780 equity, because anything can still happen with two cards 164 00:06:59,780 --> 00:07:00,690 to come? 165 00:07:00,690 --> 00:07:04,460 So the main reason is because when you bet the flop, 166 00:07:04,460 --> 00:07:06,330 they're not just deciding to call your flop 167 00:07:06,330 --> 00:07:07,670 bet for the equity there. 168 00:07:07,670 --> 00:07:10,711 They also potentially have to call a turn bet and a river 169 00:07:10,711 --> 00:07:11,210 bet. 170 00:07:11,210 --> 00:07:14,056 And essentially, this factor-- the fact that they have to, you 171 00:07:14,056 --> 00:07:16,180 can threaten to bet again on the turn and bet again 172 00:07:16,180 --> 00:07:18,510 on the river, and they have to call all these bets, 173 00:07:18,510 --> 00:07:21,015 is a bigger factor than the fact that they have-- 174 00:07:21,015 --> 00:07:26,750 there's slightly better odds to call on the flop. 175 00:07:26,750 --> 00:07:29,990 OK, so another important thing to say is when I said bet 176 00:07:29,990 --> 00:07:33,320 between 50% to 100% of the pot, I mean I think that's-- 177 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:37,250 it's very important to bet at least some fraction of the pot, 178 00:07:37,250 --> 00:07:39,170 especially when they're checking you. 179 00:07:39,170 --> 00:07:40,670 Because in some sense, betting small 180 00:07:40,670 --> 00:07:42,412 is strictly worse than checking. 181 00:07:42,412 --> 00:07:44,870 Like in this case, you get 50, which I guess isn't nothing. 182 00:07:44,870 --> 00:07:47,390 But imagine you bet $1 here. 183 00:07:47,390 --> 00:07:50,270 The issue with this is the rules of betting safe, right, 184 00:07:50,270 --> 00:07:52,880 if anyone bets any positive amount, 185 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,700 then the guys who checked now have a chance to check-raise. 186 00:07:55,700 --> 00:07:57,920 So if you're betting small, which 187 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,350 is almost the same as checking, all you're doing 188 00:08:00,350 --> 00:08:02,910 is giving your opponent a free option. 189 00:08:02,910 --> 00:08:05,060 You're allowing them the opportunity to say, 190 00:08:05,060 --> 00:08:08,070 OK, I couldn't just-- like if you check, you see the turn, 191 00:08:08,070 --> 00:08:09,190 and the turn comes. 192 00:08:09,190 --> 00:08:11,860 But by betting, now they have the opportunity-- 193 00:08:11,860 --> 00:08:12,940 a second chance to bet. 194 00:08:12,940 --> 00:08:13,910 Yeah? 195 00:08:13,910 --> 00:08:16,895 AUDIENCE: How does this change if you have the nuts? 196 00:08:16,895 --> 00:08:18,091 Should you bet? 197 00:08:18,091 --> 00:08:19,840 Like, you want calls at that point, right? 198 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:20,220 WILL MA: Right, right. 199 00:08:20,220 --> 00:08:20,470 Exactly. 200 00:08:20,470 --> 00:08:20,720 Yes. 201 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:21,710 So, I'm going to get to that, yes. 202 00:08:21,710 --> 00:08:23,376 So if you have a good hand, yeah, you'll 203 00:08:23,376 --> 00:08:25,370 bet too because you want calls. 204 00:08:25,370 --> 00:08:28,500 Right now, I'm just talking about a general strategy 205 00:08:28,500 --> 00:08:30,974 to play with your entire range of hands. 206 00:08:30,974 --> 00:08:32,390 And in general, I guess that's all 207 00:08:32,390 --> 00:08:34,015 I'm trying to encourage people to think 208 00:08:34,015 --> 00:08:35,310 about poker in this class. 209 00:08:35,310 --> 00:08:38,110 Like instead of thinking about what cards do I have 210 00:08:38,110 --> 00:08:41,659 and what cards do my opponent have, 211 00:08:41,659 --> 00:08:45,110 I try to talk in terms of what is the probability 212 00:08:45,110 --> 00:08:47,220 distribution over my opponent's hands, 213 00:08:47,220 --> 00:08:50,650 and what's the probability distribution over my hands 214 00:08:50,650 --> 00:08:52,010 in his eyes, essentially. 215 00:08:52,010 --> 00:08:57,550 So I'm just talking about a general scenario, yeah. 216 00:08:57,550 --> 00:08:58,500 OK, cool. 217 00:08:58,500 --> 00:08:59,070 So, right. 218 00:08:59,070 --> 00:09:01,070 So you never want to bet too small, basically. 219 00:09:01,070 --> 00:09:02,480 It's better just to not bet. 220 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:03,590 There's no point to bet. 221 00:09:03,590 --> 00:09:07,430 Really, it's not, because you're giving away free option. 222 00:09:07,430 --> 00:09:08,270 OK, so yeah. 223 00:09:08,270 --> 00:09:11,350 So this is what I just said, essentially. 224 00:09:11,350 --> 00:09:13,700 Because remember, just because they checked doesn't mean 225 00:09:13,700 --> 00:09:14,960 they have bad hands. 226 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,420 They're often checking regardless for the reasons 227 00:09:17,420 --> 00:09:20,030 I described earlier. 228 00:09:20,030 --> 00:09:23,360 OK, so in this situation with ace-queen offsuit, 229 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:27,440 I think both betting 200 and checking are reasonable plays. 230 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:32,160 And let's analyze the advantages and disadvantages of both. 231 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,340 So the advantage of betting 200 is 232 00:09:34,340 --> 00:09:37,750 that you don't give some garbage hand like king-jack 233 00:09:37,750 --> 00:09:39,270 a chance to outdraw you. 234 00:09:39,270 --> 00:09:41,660 So in this situation, if we bet 200, 235 00:09:41,660 --> 00:09:43,700 probably if someone had King, Jack, 236 00:09:43,700 --> 00:09:47,180 they'll probably just fold because it's almost one 237 00:09:47,180 --> 00:09:50,420 of the worst hands on this board. 238 00:09:50,420 --> 00:09:53,712 And if we bet 200, then they're going to fold. 239 00:09:53,712 --> 00:09:55,670 And then we could just win the pot right there. 240 00:09:55,670 --> 00:09:58,086 If we don't bet, maybe the turn will come a king or a jack 241 00:09:58,086 --> 00:09:59,240 and they could beat us. 242 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:00,920 So what's the advantage of checking? 243 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:02,630 The advantage of checking is we get 244 00:10:02,630 --> 00:10:04,727 to see the turn card for sure. 245 00:10:04,727 --> 00:10:05,810 We can't get check-raised. 246 00:10:05,810 --> 00:10:07,800 Like right now if we bet we get check-raised, 247 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,040 we probably have to fold with no pair. 248 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,490 But if we check, we might see a queen or an ace 249 00:10:12,490 --> 00:10:14,660 on the turn that should be great. 250 00:10:14,660 --> 00:10:17,067 And another advantage of checking is, in some sense, 251 00:10:17,067 --> 00:10:18,650 when you bet in this spot, you're only 252 00:10:18,650 --> 00:10:20,232 called by hands that beat you. 253 00:10:20,232 --> 00:10:22,690 You're going to get king-jack to fold, which is still fine, 254 00:10:22,690 --> 00:10:24,240 because they have six outs. 255 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,300 But you are ahead of them, so it's not the end 256 00:10:27,300 --> 00:10:28,890 of the world to just check him. 257 00:10:28,890 --> 00:10:31,800 If the turn comes like a deuce, you're still ahead. 258 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,822 And if it checks all the way to showdown, 259 00:10:33,822 --> 00:10:35,280 like all the way to the point where 260 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:36,870 you have to flip over your cards, 261 00:10:36,870 --> 00:10:39,944 you're going to beat king-jack. 262 00:10:39,944 --> 00:10:41,610 Whereas when you bet, you're essentially 263 00:10:41,610 --> 00:10:43,910 getting all the hands you're ahead of to fold. 264 00:10:43,910 --> 00:10:46,100 Like if they have ace-7, which you're also ahead of, 265 00:10:46,100 --> 00:10:47,391 they're probably going to fold. 266 00:10:47,391 --> 00:10:49,590 And pretty much all the hands that beat you probably 267 00:10:49,590 --> 00:10:50,570 aren't going to fold. 268 00:10:50,570 --> 00:10:52,965 Like, maybe someone will fold pocket 3's or something, 269 00:10:52,965 --> 00:10:55,340 but for the most part, you're going to get called by a 9. 270 00:10:55,340 --> 00:10:56,850 You're going to get called by an 8. 271 00:10:56,850 --> 00:10:59,980 So it's this idea sort of adverse selection. 272 00:10:59,980 --> 00:11:02,250 You're getting called only by hands that beat you, 273 00:11:02,250 --> 00:11:04,350 and you're just folding at everything else. 274 00:11:04,350 --> 00:11:07,350 So overall, I'd say these about balance out and you can-- 275 00:11:07,350 --> 00:11:11,007 I think betting or checking are both fine. 276 00:11:11,007 --> 00:11:12,840 OK, so now let's suppose it's the same spot. 277 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:13,930 And we had king-queen. 278 00:11:13,930 --> 00:11:18,060 We had king-queen instead of ace-queen. 279 00:11:18,060 --> 00:11:19,920 So pretend all the action was the same. 280 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:22,530 All the preflop action, the flop action-- everything 281 00:11:22,530 --> 00:11:26,500 was same, except just our cards change. 282 00:11:26,500 --> 00:11:29,670 So in this case, if we do the same comparison again, 283 00:11:29,670 --> 00:11:32,940 we'll see that betting has a bigger advantage now, 284 00:11:32,940 --> 00:11:35,970 because we can get hands like ace-jack and ace-7 to fold. 285 00:11:35,970 --> 00:11:38,640 Those hands previously we were beating with ace-queen. 286 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,600 But now, we don't want to risk getting a situation where it's 287 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,220 checked to showdown and everyone flips over their cards, 288 00:11:44,220 --> 00:11:46,360 and we lose to ace-jack or ace-7. 289 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,920 So I'd say in this case, now with king-queen instead 290 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,550 of ace-queen, betting has a lot more advantage 291 00:11:52,550 --> 00:11:56,057 because we're getting better hands to fold. 292 00:11:56,057 --> 00:11:57,890 OK, and this is what you were talking about. 293 00:11:57,890 --> 00:11:58,850 Yeah, what if you have the nuts? 294 00:11:58,850 --> 00:12:00,350 So in this case, if-- so suppose now 295 00:12:00,350 --> 00:12:01,750 we change our king to a queen. 296 00:12:01,750 --> 00:12:03,375 So we actually have a really good hand. 297 00:12:03,375 --> 00:12:05,790 We have pocket queens, which is an overpair, a pair 298 00:12:05,790 --> 00:12:07,900 above any card on the flop. 299 00:12:07,900 --> 00:12:09,820 So now, let's look at the advantages 300 00:12:09,820 --> 00:12:12,610 of betting versus checking. 301 00:12:12,610 --> 00:12:14,710 So now, one advantage of betting that we never 302 00:12:14,710 --> 00:12:17,180 had before because we always had bad hands 303 00:12:17,180 --> 00:12:19,940 is, now we can get worse hands to call us. 304 00:12:19,940 --> 00:12:23,950 If they have 10-9 or ace-8 or pocket 5's, they're 305 00:12:23,950 --> 00:12:25,420 probably going to call. 306 00:12:25,420 --> 00:12:28,570 And we're beating them, so we're just going to win more money. 307 00:12:28,570 --> 00:12:32,260 And the advantages of checking is essentially none. 308 00:12:32,260 --> 00:12:34,595 So the correct play, I think, is clearly 309 00:12:34,595 --> 00:12:37,680 to bet in this situation. 310 00:12:37,680 --> 00:12:40,740 So, essentially what I'm trying to get at is-- 311 00:12:40,740 --> 00:12:43,140 so I call this the Fundamental Theorem of Poker. 312 00:12:43,140 --> 00:12:44,420 It's sort of a made-up term. 313 00:12:44,420 --> 00:12:47,430 But essentially-- so one of the main things 314 00:12:47,430 --> 00:12:49,560 you should realize when you're betting postflop 315 00:12:49,560 --> 00:12:53,650 is that a bet basically accomplishes one of two things. 316 00:12:53,650 --> 00:12:55,510 So with your good hands, you want bet 317 00:12:55,510 --> 00:12:58,680 because you can get them to call with worse, but still good 318 00:12:58,680 --> 00:12:59,330 hands. 319 00:12:59,330 --> 00:13:00,940 And we call this value betting. 320 00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:02,940 So with the pocket queens, this is-- 321 00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:06,170 what you're doing is value betting when you bet. 322 00:13:06,170 --> 00:13:08,070 And then with the bottom hands in your range, 323 00:13:08,070 --> 00:13:11,310 you should bet to get them to fold better but still 324 00:13:11,310 --> 00:13:12,810 pretty weak hands. 325 00:13:12,810 --> 00:13:15,320 So in this case, when we had king-queen, 326 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,630 we would be betting to get them to fold ace-jack. 327 00:13:18,630 --> 00:13:21,210 So, this is called bluffing. 328 00:13:21,210 --> 00:13:22,784 So essentially, the point of a bet 329 00:13:22,784 --> 00:13:24,450 should either be a value bet because you 330 00:13:24,450 --> 00:13:26,610 have a really good hand, or a bluff because you 331 00:13:26,610 --> 00:13:27,665 have a really bad hand. 332 00:13:27,665 --> 00:13:29,790 And you want to sort of think in terms of that way. 333 00:13:29,790 --> 00:13:33,000 And if you ever find yourself making a bet 334 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,880 and you're not sure whether it's a value bet or a bluff, 335 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,070 then chances are you maybe shouldn't be betting. 336 00:13:39,070 --> 00:13:40,710 So with the middle hands in your range, 337 00:13:40,710 --> 00:13:42,270 you should check because if you bet, 338 00:13:42,270 --> 00:13:43,650 you fold out all the weaker hands 339 00:13:43,650 --> 00:13:45,790 and you keep in all the stronger hands. 340 00:13:45,790 --> 00:13:47,250 OK, does that make sense? 341 00:13:47,250 --> 00:13:50,230 So this is like the fundamental concept in poker, 342 00:13:50,230 --> 00:13:55,100 essentially, that we should try to realize. 343 00:13:55,100 --> 00:13:58,020 OK, so I sort of made this diagram. 344 00:13:58,020 --> 00:14:00,420 So, the best hands are at the top of the rectangles. 345 00:14:00,420 --> 00:14:02,970 The worse cards-- the worst hands are at the bottom. 346 00:14:02,970 --> 00:14:05,700 So once again, we're thinking in terms of our entire range 347 00:14:05,700 --> 00:14:06,910 of possibilities. 348 00:14:06,910 --> 00:14:09,630 So postflop, we want it sort of-- 349 00:14:09,630 --> 00:14:10,950 so that's on the left. 350 00:14:10,950 --> 00:14:13,980 Postflop, we want to bet the best hands, 351 00:14:13,980 --> 00:14:16,650 bluff the worst hands, and then check things in the middle. 352 00:14:16,650 --> 00:14:20,280 And then preflop, basically we fold all the bad hands 353 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,250 and then we raise, or if someone's already raised, 354 00:14:23,250 --> 00:14:26,130 we re-raise the best hands and we just 355 00:14:26,130 --> 00:14:27,840 raise the pretty good hands. 356 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,870 I'll talk more about preflop playing in a future lecture. 357 00:14:30,870 --> 00:14:32,800 But I just wanted to contrast this 358 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:34,800 because I don't want someone to think, you know, 359 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:39,180 if I have 7-2 offsuit preflop, I should be bluffing. 360 00:14:39,180 --> 00:14:40,765 Because it's a different scenario. 361 00:14:40,765 --> 00:14:43,140 Because preflop, you're choosing what percentage of hands 362 00:14:43,140 --> 00:14:44,070 to play. 363 00:14:44,070 --> 00:14:47,430 And it's strictly better to just choose the best 30% or the best 364 00:14:47,430 --> 00:14:52,792 40% instead of choosing the best 10% and the worst 10%. 365 00:14:52,792 --> 00:14:56,040 OK, so going back to this principle, with 7-7, 366 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:57,684 so it's still the same situation. 367 00:14:57,684 --> 00:14:59,850 So I'm analyzing the same situation many, many times 368 00:14:59,850 --> 00:15:01,200 with different cards. 369 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,020 With 7-7, the right play is definitely to check. 370 00:15:04,020 --> 00:15:08,110 Because so, with ace-queen, it's in a similar spot to ace-queen 371 00:15:08,110 --> 00:15:11,700 in that it's also you get called only by better hands 372 00:15:11,700 --> 00:15:13,920 and you mostly only fold out worse hands. 373 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,420 But with ace-queen, at least there was the advantage that 374 00:15:16,420 --> 00:15:20,760 if they called with like an 8 or 9, we could turn-- 375 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:22,320 we have more chances to beat them. 376 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:24,600 We could turn an ace or a queen and win more money, 377 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,050 or alternatively, we could turn a jack which 378 00:15:27,050 --> 00:15:29,769 gives us a straight draw, and try to bluff them off 379 00:15:29,769 --> 00:15:30,810 [INAUDIBLE] or something. 380 00:15:30,810 --> 00:15:33,390 Whereas with pocket 7's, there's less room to play. 381 00:15:33,390 --> 00:15:35,730 So, I think with pocket 7's, you should definitely 382 00:15:35,730 --> 00:15:38,340 check on this flop. 383 00:15:38,340 --> 00:15:41,040 So, OK, so some other stuff about continuation betting on 384 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:42,550 flops. 385 00:15:42,550 --> 00:15:44,495 I wouldn't bluff super scary flops. 386 00:15:44,495 --> 00:15:47,380 By super scary, I essentially-- mathematically, 387 00:15:47,380 --> 00:15:50,700 it just means there's a lot of uncertainty 388 00:15:50,700 --> 00:15:52,334 because so many things are possible. 389 00:15:52,334 --> 00:15:54,000 And basically, this happens when there's 390 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,040 three cards of the same suit and they're all connected. 391 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,640 So whenever the board is like this, it looks scary. 392 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:02,370 It looks very coordinated. 393 00:16:02,370 --> 00:16:05,040 But mathematically speaking, it's essentially saying, 394 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:06,420 anything can happen. 395 00:16:06,420 --> 00:16:08,940 And no one should fold if you have anything at all. 396 00:16:08,940 --> 00:16:10,665 Because you know, if you have any 10, 397 00:16:10,665 --> 00:16:12,290 you have a chance of making a straight. 398 00:16:12,290 --> 00:16:13,760 If you have a reasonable heart, you 399 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:15,093 have a chance of making a flush. 400 00:16:15,093 --> 00:16:17,490 Just any hand is going to have a reasonable chance. 401 00:16:17,490 --> 00:16:18,990 Same as, you know, even if you have 402 00:16:18,990 --> 00:16:20,965 like an ace, like I guess as we do, 403 00:16:20,965 --> 00:16:24,810 you have a chance of turning a higher pair. 404 00:16:24,810 --> 00:16:28,350 So I would just check, and basically give up on this flop. 405 00:16:28,350 --> 00:16:32,240 Or check, and hope you hit an ace or a queen, I guess. 406 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,670 And another thing is continuation betting 407 00:16:34,670 --> 00:16:37,550 into too many people, if you have nothing, 408 00:16:37,550 --> 00:16:39,900 it can be an advanced play in certain situations 409 00:16:39,900 --> 00:16:44,310 if everyone else also recognizes that if you're continuation 410 00:16:44,310 --> 00:16:46,004 betting into five people, you just 411 00:16:46,004 --> 00:16:47,420 have such a good hand that they're 412 00:16:47,420 --> 00:16:50,940 going to fold a hand as good as say, like, pocket 8's here. 413 00:16:50,940 --> 00:16:52,670 But for the most part, in practice, I 414 00:16:52,670 --> 00:16:55,940 would say if the pot has like six or seven people, 415 00:16:55,940 --> 00:16:57,770 I wouldn't try to bet on the flop 416 00:16:57,770 --> 00:17:00,680 with overcards to try to get everyone to fold, 417 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:02,970 because someone's going to have two hearts, 418 00:17:02,970 --> 00:17:04,220 or someone's getting have a 7. 419 00:17:04,220 --> 00:17:07,270 Someone's going to have a pair. 420 00:17:07,270 --> 00:17:11,089 OK, so I talked about sort of when you want to bet postflop. 421 00:17:11,089 --> 00:17:13,579 So now, I'll talk a bit more about when 422 00:17:13,579 --> 00:17:15,500 you want to call bets postflop. 423 00:17:15,500 --> 00:17:18,630 And I'm going to try to give a lot of different situations. 424 00:17:18,630 --> 00:17:21,770 So now, let's look at calling bets. 425 00:17:21,770 --> 00:17:25,130 And I think newer players especially 426 00:17:25,130 --> 00:17:29,140 tend to call with hands weaker than you need to. 427 00:17:29,140 --> 00:17:32,270 So the general rule of thumb is, unless your opponent bets 428 00:17:32,270 --> 00:17:34,070 extremely small, which they should not 429 00:17:34,070 --> 00:17:38,240 do by what I explained, you should fold most of your hands 430 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:39,380 to a half-pot bet. 431 00:17:39,380 --> 00:17:43,190 So in some sense, most hands miss most flops. 432 00:17:43,190 --> 00:17:45,020 And when you miss, there's really 433 00:17:45,020 --> 00:17:48,122 not a reason to do anything other than to fold. 434 00:17:48,122 --> 00:17:49,330 There's a lot of tournaments. 435 00:17:49,330 --> 00:17:50,630 See I always play the next tournament 436 00:17:50,630 --> 00:17:52,921 and get dealt and new hand and try to have a good hand, 437 00:17:52,921 --> 00:17:55,244 so, OK. 438 00:17:55,244 --> 00:17:57,410 So now, I'm going to change this situation up a bit. 439 00:17:57,410 --> 00:17:59,618 But once again, I'm going to analyze the same betting 440 00:17:59,618 --> 00:18:02,270 situation over different hands. 441 00:18:02,270 --> 00:18:06,410 So now, it's everyone folds to-- is folds to the button. 442 00:18:06,410 --> 00:18:09,600 We're still 40 bets deep because the blinds are 2,550 443 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:11,660 and we have-- 444 00:18:11,660 --> 00:18:13,040 we have 2,000. 445 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,480 And so the button makes it 125, and we 446 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,700 decide to call with our hand. 447 00:18:17,700 --> 00:18:23,100 OK, so let's say we have queen-9 suited in this case. 448 00:18:23,100 --> 00:18:26,520 And, OK, let's say the flop is 10-7-2. 449 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,000 So, we check. 450 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,070 We check as a form of respect to the preflop raiser. 451 00:18:32,070 --> 00:18:34,170 And then they bet half-pot. 452 00:18:34,170 --> 00:18:35,970 So here this is a situation where 453 00:18:35,970 --> 00:18:37,964 we've got no pair, no draw. 454 00:18:37,964 --> 00:18:39,130 I guess we have an overcard. 455 00:18:39,130 --> 00:18:40,504 We have an overcard in the queen, 456 00:18:40,504 --> 00:18:43,930 and we can turn a pair of queens to beat a tier of 10's, but 457 00:18:43,930 --> 00:18:45,870 that's only three cards that help us. 458 00:18:45,870 --> 00:18:48,390 Basically, the correct play is just to fold. 459 00:18:48,390 --> 00:18:50,160 You essentially have nothing here. 460 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,340 You know, you have some like, speculative straight draws 461 00:18:53,340 --> 00:18:55,930 where if you hit a jack and then an 8, 462 00:18:55,930 --> 00:18:58,599 like if you have two cards that come for you, then 463 00:18:58,599 --> 00:18:59,390 you get a straight. 464 00:18:59,390 --> 00:19:01,098 But for the most part, we've got nothing. 465 00:19:01,098 --> 00:19:03,164 We just fold. 466 00:19:03,164 --> 00:19:05,580 Here are some other situations where you should just fold. 467 00:19:05,580 --> 00:19:08,850 So here, we have ace-high but the board 468 00:19:08,850 --> 00:19:10,832 has three pretty big cards. 469 00:19:10,832 --> 00:19:13,290 And there's a decent chance he's going to have one of them. 470 00:19:13,290 --> 00:19:15,390 And if he doesn't, he's going to have 471 00:19:15,390 --> 00:19:17,375 like queen-10, or 10-9, or something 472 00:19:17,375 --> 00:19:19,750 with straight [INAUDIBLE],, or some kind of straight draw 473 00:19:19,750 --> 00:19:20,675 with a lot of outs. 474 00:19:20,675 --> 00:19:22,800 So there's just no reason to play hands like these. 475 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:27,640 So it's totally fine if you lose a lot of hands, 476 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:31,020 as long as you win more chips on the hands that you do win. 477 00:19:31,020 --> 00:19:32,670 So, just fold this. 478 00:19:32,670 --> 00:19:34,140 Not much reason to play. 479 00:19:34,140 --> 00:19:35,262 Here, you have this. 480 00:19:35,262 --> 00:19:36,720 This board is a bit better for you. 481 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:38,610 You have ace-9 high on a 6-high board, 482 00:19:38,610 --> 00:19:40,260 but there's a lot of straight draws, 483 00:19:40,260 --> 00:19:42,970 and there is a flush draw, a spade flush draw on this board, 484 00:19:42,970 --> 00:19:45,900 so I would still fold. 485 00:19:45,900 --> 00:19:47,670 Here, we even have a pair, but this 486 00:19:47,670 --> 00:19:49,350 is an example where I think I'd fold 487 00:19:49,350 --> 00:19:51,720 even though you have a pair. 488 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,600 So we have a pair of 9's here which is decent, 489 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,430 but once again, there's three hearts. 490 00:19:56,430 --> 00:20:00,090 And it's easy for him to make a flush or make a straight. 491 00:20:00,090 --> 00:20:01,830 And even if he doesn't, we're going 492 00:20:01,830 --> 00:20:05,037 to be-- we're going to have to check to him on the turn, 493 00:20:05,037 --> 00:20:06,120 check to him on the river. 494 00:20:06,120 --> 00:20:08,100 And then they can bet, and then we 495 00:20:08,100 --> 00:20:09,910 have to decide whether we call it or not. 496 00:20:09,910 --> 00:20:14,910 So, just overall, there's a lot of-- it's an [INAUDIBLE] play. 497 00:20:14,910 --> 00:20:16,410 And this is why what-- 498 00:20:16,410 --> 00:20:19,350 I'm talking about being out of position. 499 00:20:19,350 --> 00:20:23,010 So where we have to act first on every straight, 500 00:20:23,010 --> 00:20:26,910 so it's going to be tougher to make good decisions. 501 00:20:26,910 --> 00:20:30,080 OK, so now, we're getting some better hands. 502 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,240 But I think I would advocate still folding these. 503 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:33,490 So here, our hand is-- 504 00:20:33,490 --> 00:20:35,480 it's not bad. 505 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,060 We basically got a four-out straight draw, which 506 00:20:38,060 --> 00:20:40,180 is usually called a gutshot. 507 00:20:40,180 --> 00:20:42,860 You hit an 8 to turn a straight. 508 00:20:42,860 --> 00:20:44,790 And also we've got diamonds. 509 00:20:44,790 --> 00:20:48,435 If we get two diamonds in a row, we can make a flush. 510 00:20:48,435 --> 00:20:50,060 But overall on this spot, I would still 511 00:20:50,060 --> 00:20:52,650 fold just because even though we've 512 00:20:52,650 --> 00:20:57,500 got four outs to our gutshot, we've got no combinations-- 513 00:20:57,500 --> 00:20:59,400 we've got no other combinations to help us. 514 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,100 Like, a 9 is essentially useless when there's three higher 515 00:21:02,100 --> 00:21:03,110 cards on the board. 516 00:21:03,110 --> 00:21:05,120 Turning a 9 doesn't help us at all. 517 00:21:05,120 --> 00:21:07,970 Turning a 7 doesn't help us at all. 518 00:21:07,970 --> 00:21:11,370 And furthermore, even if we turn an 8, it's possible. 519 00:21:11,370 --> 00:21:14,900 So if we turn an 8, then queen-9 makes a better 520 00:21:14,900 --> 00:21:15,950 straight than us. 521 00:21:15,950 --> 00:21:19,452 And also, king-queen, which already has a straight, 522 00:21:19,452 --> 00:21:20,660 is a better straight than us. 523 00:21:20,660 --> 00:21:22,880 So even when we hit an 8, it's not even-- 524 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,400 we're not even 100% sure we're going to win the hand. 525 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,220 And we could just put our chips in after hitting an 8 526 00:21:28,220 --> 00:21:30,450 and lose all our chips. 527 00:21:30,450 --> 00:21:32,210 So, I would fold this as well. 528 00:21:32,210 --> 00:21:35,390 A four-out gutshot is bad unless you 529 00:21:35,390 --> 00:21:38,540 have other stuff to go with it. 530 00:21:38,540 --> 00:21:41,600 OK, so in this case, we have a better straight draw. 531 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,065 So in this case, we have an eight-out straight draw. 532 00:21:45,065 --> 00:21:46,585 Because an 8 gives us a straight-- 533 00:21:46,585 --> 00:21:47,950 8 through king. 534 00:21:47,950 --> 00:21:50,390 But a king also gives us a straight. 535 00:21:50,390 --> 00:21:51,800 We have 9 through King. 536 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:53,840 But in this case, I would still-- 537 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,340 I would still recommend folding just 538 00:21:55,340 --> 00:21:58,182 because if a king comes then-- 539 00:21:58,182 --> 00:22:00,590 you know, we do have a straight, but we lose to an ace. 540 00:22:00,590 --> 00:22:04,030 So, 10-jack-queen-king-ace is going to just be a higher 541 00:22:04,030 --> 00:22:06,530 straight than our 9 through king straight, 542 00:22:06,530 --> 00:22:09,860 so even though we have a lot of outs, 543 00:22:09,860 --> 00:22:12,810 the outs aren't that good, and it's possible we just once 544 00:22:12,810 --> 00:22:14,650 again, we make a second-best hand, 545 00:22:14,650 --> 00:22:16,910 which is the worst possible situation in poker 546 00:22:16,910 --> 00:22:18,660 because you're going to put a lot of money 547 00:22:18,660 --> 00:22:21,260 in and you're going to lose. 548 00:22:21,260 --> 00:22:24,160 OK, so this is another example I would fold. 549 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:25,820 Pocket 5's on queen-jack-10. 550 00:22:25,820 --> 00:22:27,029 You have a small pair. 551 00:22:27,029 --> 00:22:29,570 You started with a small pair, but you didn't improve at all. 552 00:22:29,570 --> 00:22:31,580 The flop did not help your hand at all. 553 00:22:31,580 --> 00:22:35,170 And it most likely helped your opponent's hand. 554 00:22:35,170 --> 00:22:37,745 OK, so, here's a question you can ask. 555 00:22:37,745 --> 00:22:39,230 So in all these spots, I say fold, 556 00:22:39,230 --> 00:22:41,840 but what if I think bluff-raising will work? 557 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:46,010 You know, what if I think I can get him to fold if I raise? 558 00:22:46,010 --> 00:22:48,980 So what I want to- what I want to say 559 00:22:48,980 --> 00:22:50,870 is, when you're bluffing on the flop, 560 00:22:50,870 --> 00:22:53,240 it's usually because you have some kind of draw 561 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,310 or some kind of nice speculative hand 562 00:22:55,310 --> 00:22:57,680 that has a chance of turning into a good hand. 563 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,430 In all the examples I showed, not only are our hands bad, 564 00:23:01,430 --> 00:23:03,710 there's not that many good cards for us, 565 00:23:03,710 --> 00:23:06,170 with the exception of maybe this 7-9 hand, where if you 566 00:23:06,170 --> 00:23:07,890 turn an 8, it's pretty good. 567 00:23:07,890 --> 00:23:12,260 But yeah, even this-- 568 00:23:12,260 --> 00:23:14,920 even this hand, if you turn an 8, it's not that good, 569 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:19,130 because the board is then going to be 8-10-jack-queen. 570 00:23:19,130 --> 00:23:22,220 So we're only playing with one-card straight, which is 571 00:23:22,220 --> 00:23:26,070 still fairly easy to put aside. 572 00:23:26,070 --> 00:23:29,460 OK, so before we get to spots, or maybe we want to raise, 573 00:23:29,460 --> 00:23:31,100 potentially bluff-raise, let me just 574 00:23:31,100 --> 00:23:33,016 go-- let's go through some spots where I think 575 00:23:33,016 --> 00:23:34,300 calling is a pretty good play. 576 00:23:34,300 --> 00:23:37,590 So here, I think calling with ace-9 high on this board 577 00:23:37,590 --> 00:23:38,667 is reasonable. 578 00:23:38,667 --> 00:23:40,500 In the example where I said you should fold, 579 00:23:40,500 --> 00:23:43,440 the flop was 6-5-4, and there was a flush draw. 580 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,390 So there were straight draws and flush draws. 581 00:23:45,390 --> 00:23:48,600 In this case, the board is paired, which really helps us 582 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,300 because there's just fewer combinations of pairs 583 00:23:51,300 --> 00:23:53,070 that he could make. 584 00:23:53,070 --> 00:23:55,170 And a 3 is a pretty small card, so it's 585 00:23:55,170 --> 00:23:56,500 pretty unlikely they have a 3. 586 00:23:56,500 --> 00:23:58,680 So ace-9-high is pretty good here. 587 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,190 You have two overcards. 588 00:24:00,190 --> 00:24:03,030 You even have a diamond [? back your ?] flush draw. 589 00:24:03,030 --> 00:24:05,310 So I would call here. 590 00:24:05,310 --> 00:24:07,020 OK, so we would get-- so getting better, 591 00:24:07,020 --> 00:24:08,740 here, this hand is even better. 592 00:24:08,740 --> 00:24:09,360 We have ace-3. 593 00:24:09,360 --> 00:24:11,010 We have bottom pair on this. 594 00:24:11,010 --> 00:24:12,240 Pretty safe flop. 595 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,000 It is three different cards, and they could have a jack or a 5, 596 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,730 but just overall against a range, 597 00:24:17,730 --> 00:24:19,590 we have tremendous equity here. 598 00:24:19,590 --> 00:24:20,690 So I would call. 599 00:24:20,690 --> 00:24:22,770 So note, when I say call, do not raise. 600 00:24:22,770 --> 00:24:25,830 I'll give you examples of how good, roughly speaking, 601 00:24:25,830 --> 00:24:29,500 our hand has to be to raise. 602 00:24:29,500 --> 00:24:31,110 All right, so here, I would call. 603 00:24:31,110 --> 00:24:34,290 The board is very scary, but we have second pair. 604 00:24:34,290 --> 00:24:36,180 And I think second pair is just-- 605 00:24:36,180 --> 00:24:38,450 second pair with the best kicker would be ace. 606 00:24:38,450 --> 00:24:40,590 So that's definitely good enough to call. 607 00:24:40,590 --> 00:24:43,110 With ace-9, I think this would be borderline, 608 00:24:43,110 --> 00:24:43,880 whether you call. 609 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,570 I think calling is OK, but not mandatory. 610 00:24:47,570 --> 00:24:50,520 OK, here's another example-- second pair on a safer board. 611 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:52,230 This is a pretty good hand. 612 00:24:52,230 --> 00:24:53,730 I mean, if they've got an ace, we're 613 00:24:53,730 --> 00:24:55,470 not drawing to that many outs. 614 00:24:55,470 --> 00:24:58,200 But if they don't have an ace, they're 615 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,390 not drawing with that many outs. 616 00:25:00,390 --> 00:25:03,480 So it's because whenever big cards come on the flop, 617 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,640 like an ace and a king, in some sense, 618 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,850 even if there's flush and straight draws, more of the-- 619 00:25:08,850 --> 00:25:11,070 more of who's going to win has been decided. 620 00:25:11,070 --> 00:25:13,590 Because if you've got a big pair, 621 00:25:13,590 --> 00:25:15,390 like if you've got an ace or a king, 622 00:25:15,390 --> 00:25:18,410 then there's not like an even bigger card that can come in 623 00:25:18,410 --> 00:25:19,600 to try and beat you. 624 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,290 And if you don't have it, then, you know, 625 00:25:22,290 --> 00:25:25,600 it's like if you have 10-9, even if you turn it's hand, 626 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,560 you're not going to outdraw an ace-7. 627 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,180 So here, I would just call. 628 00:25:31,180 --> 00:25:33,830 Here, you have a pretty good pair, pocket 8's on 9-3-3. 629 00:25:33,830 --> 00:25:35,800 Obviously, you have a very good hand here, 630 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,200 but I just think, in this case, where 631 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,910 there's no flush draws-- no straight draws, 632 00:25:40,910 --> 00:25:42,940 there's not really that much reason 633 00:25:42,940 --> 00:25:44,966 to raise because it's not like you're 634 00:25:44,966 --> 00:25:46,840 going to get called by worse hands that often 635 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,000 that I would still only call. 636 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,700 Even though in some sense, your hand is very, very strong here. 637 00:25:51,700 --> 00:25:55,000 Like, I would expect you to have the better hand more than 80% 638 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:55,910 of the time. 639 00:25:55,910 --> 00:25:58,070 But the problem is when you raise, 640 00:25:58,070 --> 00:26:00,190 they're only playing the 20% that beats you, 641 00:26:00,190 --> 00:26:05,760 which is hands 9's, hands with 3's, and pocket 10's plus. 642 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,590 So here, I would also recommend calling 643 00:26:07,590 --> 00:26:09,140 even though we have top pair. 644 00:26:09,140 --> 00:26:11,250 So top pair, the highest pair on the board. 645 00:26:11,250 --> 00:26:12,831 It's a pair of aces, which seems-- 646 00:26:12,831 --> 00:26:15,330 you know, it seems like we have a good hand we should raise. 647 00:26:15,330 --> 00:26:19,110 But once again, our other card, which is very relevant, 648 00:26:19,110 --> 00:26:20,330 is very small in this case. 649 00:26:20,330 --> 00:26:22,090 So we're going to lose to ace-queen-- 650 00:26:22,090 --> 00:26:23,520 any kind of big ace. 651 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,680 And furthermore, there's not that much reason 652 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,690 to raise because we're not that scared 653 00:26:27,690 --> 00:26:31,910 of letting them see a turn card with, say, 10-9. 654 00:26:31,910 --> 00:26:35,410 Because even if he turns a 10 or a 9, he's not going to beat us. 655 00:26:35,410 --> 00:26:37,480 So, right-- so, the reason you raise 656 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,710 is essentially to not let your opponent see more cards 657 00:26:40,710 --> 00:26:41,640 and give them outs. 658 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:46,110 But they don't have that many outs if we're ahead of them. 659 00:26:46,110 --> 00:26:48,780 So I would-- so this is, you can say this is like, 660 00:26:48,780 --> 00:26:51,075 a way-ahead, way-behind situation. 661 00:26:51,075 --> 00:26:53,130 That's some terminology that you might hear, 662 00:26:53,130 --> 00:26:55,620 which basically means you're either way ahead because they 663 00:26:55,620 --> 00:26:57,670 don't have an ace, or you are way behind 664 00:26:57,670 --> 00:26:59,280 because they've got ace-queen. 665 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,290 And when you're way ahead or way behind, 666 00:27:01,290 --> 00:27:03,580 you don't really want to be raising because he's just 667 00:27:03,580 --> 00:27:05,560 going to call you when you're way behind, 668 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,690 and he's just going to fold when you're way ahead. 669 00:27:09,690 --> 00:27:12,595 OK, so here we're getting some pretty good hands. 670 00:27:12,595 --> 00:27:15,440 Ace-jack and jack-10-9 with a flush draw. 671 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,840 I think if you raise, it's not-- 672 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,550 it wouldn't be the end of the world. 673 00:27:19,550 --> 00:27:25,040 The issue is I think 2,000 chips when the blinds are only 2,550 674 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:30,030 is still a bit much to put in your entire stack on this flop. 675 00:27:30,030 --> 00:27:32,880 And just because even though you have top pair with the best 676 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:34,560 kicker, there is a lot of straights. 677 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,560 And even if he's-- 678 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,905 like even if let's say they have queen-9 of hearts-- 679 00:27:38,905 --> 00:27:41,280 I think that's behind of you currently because they only 680 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:42,650 have a pair of 9's. 681 00:27:42,650 --> 00:27:45,710 There is just going to be so many straight and flush 682 00:27:45,710 --> 00:27:48,660 outs they're going to have that you're never really getting it 683 00:27:48,660 --> 00:27:51,570 in ahead of equity by that much. 684 00:27:51,570 --> 00:27:54,290 So I would just call and see what the turn is. 685 00:27:54,290 --> 00:27:56,330 But that's maybe the best-- 686 00:27:56,330 --> 00:27:58,310 one of the examples of the strongest 687 00:27:58,310 --> 00:28:02,430 hands you can have where I would still recommend calling. 688 00:28:02,430 --> 00:28:04,700 In this case, we've got a small overpair. 689 00:28:04,700 --> 00:28:07,040 But I would still call even though, once again, we 690 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,040 have the best hand probably 80% plus of the time. 691 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:11,660 But once again, when you raise, you're 692 00:28:11,660 --> 00:28:14,990 only getting played back at by the 20% that beats you. 693 00:28:14,990 --> 00:28:17,680 So, OK. 694 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,540 Yeah, so, and notice there, when I went through these examples, 695 00:28:20,540 --> 00:28:22,799 the stack size was very important, right? 696 00:28:22,799 --> 00:28:24,590 So in the first class, the important things 697 00:28:24,590 --> 00:28:27,080 are position, stack size, and cards. 698 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,230 In this case, the position was the button. 699 00:28:30,230 --> 00:28:32,542 The cards-- I've showed you what the cards are. 700 00:28:32,542 --> 00:28:34,250 But the stack size-- the fact that you're 701 00:28:34,250 --> 00:28:37,740 playing for potentially 2,000 chips, is very important. 702 00:28:37,740 --> 00:28:39,530 And if you're playing for fewer chips 703 00:28:39,530 --> 00:28:43,360 then you can risk gambling a lot more, as I'll show you later. 704 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,860 OK, so another note is you could argue 705 00:28:45,860 --> 00:28:48,915 for check-raising in some of these call situations 706 00:28:48,915 --> 00:28:50,540 especially the ones where your hand was 707 00:28:50,540 --> 00:28:52,580 more vulnerable to overcards. 708 00:28:52,580 --> 00:28:54,650 So let me just quickly run through them again. 709 00:28:54,650 --> 00:28:56,842 So, I'll describe what they are. 710 00:28:56,842 --> 00:28:58,550 So this is one of them, because here, you 711 00:28:58,550 --> 00:29:01,100 could argue, OK, I want to raise because if I call, 712 00:29:01,100 --> 00:29:02,450 what if he has jack-10? 713 00:29:02,450 --> 00:29:04,990 Then he has 6-7, right? 714 00:29:04,990 --> 00:29:06,380 Here, this is another example. 715 00:29:06,380 --> 00:29:08,180 What if they have 10-9? 716 00:29:08,180 --> 00:29:10,270 They can turn a 10 or 9 and beat us. 717 00:29:10,270 --> 00:29:12,140 Here, this is not an example. 718 00:29:12,140 --> 00:29:14,270 Here, I think calling is clearly correct 719 00:29:14,270 --> 00:29:18,374 because the only bad cards are like a queen, 720 00:29:18,374 --> 00:29:19,790 because an ace gives you two-pair. 721 00:29:19,790 --> 00:29:23,240 So, there's just very few scary-- 722 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,760 the board is already scary and there's not that many overcards 723 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:28,400 that can come. 724 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,710 This is another example because in this case, 725 00:29:30,710 --> 00:29:32,600 there's actually no scary cards in subsets. 726 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,100 No card is-- there's no card that you're 727 00:29:35,100 --> 00:29:37,032 afraid of giving him. 728 00:29:37,032 --> 00:29:39,240 This is an example where you could argue for raising. 729 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,390 You know, you don't want jack-10 to see another card. 730 00:29:42,390 --> 00:29:44,240 That's reasonable, yeah. 731 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:45,890 Here, there's no risk. 732 00:29:45,890 --> 00:29:48,250 It's completely safe, so I would never raise. 733 00:29:48,250 --> 00:29:54,500 Here, I guess there are some bad cards, but if you raise, 734 00:29:54,500 --> 00:29:57,716 they can just call with your draws anyway try to hit. 735 00:29:57,716 --> 00:29:59,090 So here, this is an example where 736 00:29:59,090 --> 00:30:02,830 you could argue for raising to not let them see a turn card. 737 00:30:02,830 --> 00:30:03,580 OK, so, yeah. 738 00:30:03,580 --> 00:30:04,760 These are reasonable arguments and I 739 00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,390 think raising some of these call hands 740 00:30:06,390 --> 00:30:09,760 would not be a terrible play. 741 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,620 But I think for most of these, the advantages of calling still 742 00:30:12,620 --> 00:30:16,250 outweigh the advantages of raising, especially 743 00:30:16,250 --> 00:30:18,680 if your opponent is also capable of bluffing. 744 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,150 Because let's say you check-raise. 745 00:30:21,150 --> 00:30:22,760 So let's say they make it 150. 746 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:24,500 You make it 400. 747 00:30:24,500 --> 00:30:26,810 And then let's say they go all in. 748 00:30:26,810 --> 00:30:29,600 But they're going to go all in not only with hands that 749 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,547 beat you, like pocket 7's plus. 750 00:30:31,547 --> 00:30:33,380 They'll also occasionally do this with hands 751 00:30:33,380 --> 00:30:37,610 like ace-3 or ace-4, hands that have an overcard in the ace, 752 00:30:37,610 --> 00:30:39,920 but also have a gutshot straight draw. 753 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:44,540 Like ace-3 or ace-4 can make a straight. 754 00:30:44,540 --> 00:30:46,340 Then you're just in a very tough spot. 755 00:30:46,340 --> 00:30:49,700 Basically if you call, you're not in a good situation 756 00:30:49,700 --> 00:30:51,176 because you're often behind. 757 00:30:51,176 --> 00:30:52,550 But if you fold, then you're also 758 00:30:52,550 --> 00:30:54,040 folding to a lot of weaker hands. 759 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:55,790 So there's just a lot of ways for the hand 760 00:30:55,790 --> 00:30:59,450 to go badly if you raise because your hand sort of-- 761 00:30:59,450 --> 00:31:03,200 it's too-- it's not good enough to raise and call 762 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:04,190 if they re-raise. 763 00:31:04,190 --> 00:31:09,020 Yet, it's too good to sort of waste as a check-raise bluff 764 00:31:09,020 --> 00:31:10,970 and just fold if they re-raise, right? 765 00:31:10,970 --> 00:31:15,380 Like let's say my play here with pocket 6's 766 00:31:15,380 --> 00:31:19,940 is to check-raise and fold if they do anything else. 767 00:31:19,940 --> 00:31:22,700 But then you could argue, why am I doing this with a hand 768 00:31:22,700 --> 00:31:24,170 as good as pocket 6's? 769 00:31:24,170 --> 00:31:26,270 Why don't I do this with 10-9? 770 00:31:26,270 --> 00:31:28,280 Because it's going to be a similar result 771 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:29,070 most of the time. 772 00:31:29,070 --> 00:31:30,440 They're going to either fold and I'm 773 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:32,840 going to win the pot with 10-9, or they're going to raise 774 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:34,970 and I'm going to have the fold with 10-9. 775 00:31:34,970 --> 00:31:38,070 Occasionally, they'll call, but you could argue in that case, 776 00:31:38,070 --> 00:31:42,020 I would almost rather have 10-9 than pocket 6's because pocket 777 00:31:42,020 --> 00:31:43,490 6's I'm going to always lose. 778 00:31:43,490 --> 00:31:44,660 And 10-9, who knows? 779 00:31:44,660 --> 00:31:45,940 I can turn a 10. 780 00:31:45,940 --> 00:31:50,007 So, anyway, so the long story short 781 00:31:50,007 --> 00:31:51,590 is I would just recommend just calling 782 00:31:51,590 --> 00:31:53,756 with most of those hands although there's definitely 783 00:31:53,756 --> 00:31:57,568 lots of arguments you can make for raising. 784 00:31:57,568 --> 00:31:59,002 Yeah? 785 00:31:59,002 --> 00:32:02,226 AUDIENCE: I didn't get why we'd assume once-- 786 00:32:02,226 --> 00:32:05,082 should re-raise if you have the top pair, the top kicker 787 00:32:05,082 --> 00:32:10,790 of either because if you give them the draws, 788 00:32:10,790 --> 00:32:12,847 at least once you make the shorts bigger, 789 00:32:12,847 --> 00:32:14,580 then it will turn out all right. 790 00:32:14,580 --> 00:32:15,750 WILL MA: You're talking about this situation? 791 00:32:15,750 --> 00:32:16,240 AUDIENCE: Yeah, it is. 792 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:17,073 WILL MA: Yeah, yeah. 793 00:32:17,073 --> 00:32:18,450 OK, yeah, that's a good point. 794 00:32:18,450 --> 00:32:21,990 So, yeah, I think that the main reason 795 00:32:21,990 --> 00:32:26,490 is just your overall equity against their range 796 00:32:26,490 --> 00:32:28,650 is pretty low on this board compared 797 00:32:28,650 --> 00:32:31,500 to an average situation if you have top pair or top kicker. 798 00:32:31,500 --> 00:32:35,270 Like if the board is jack-7-2, your equity against their range 799 00:32:35,270 --> 00:32:37,580 is probably something like 85%. 800 00:32:37,580 --> 00:32:39,196 Whereas on this board, your equity 801 00:32:39,196 --> 00:32:40,320 is just overall a lot less. 802 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:41,944 There's a lot more hands that beat you. 803 00:32:41,944 --> 00:32:44,550 So there's a lot higher probability 804 00:32:44,550 --> 00:32:47,070 that if you raise and call and put all your money in, 805 00:32:47,070 --> 00:32:48,910 that you're behind, basically. 806 00:32:48,910 --> 00:32:50,700 So there's just a huge risk of that. 807 00:32:50,700 --> 00:32:52,110 So, but yeah, I do agree. 808 00:32:52,110 --> 00:32:55,140 It does feel very unsatisfying to only call 809 00:32:55,140 --> 00:32:56,510 and let them see those cards. 810 00:32:56,510 --> 00:32:58,260 But I think it's sort of the lesser of two 811 00:32:58,260 --> 00:33:00,570 evils in this situation between putting 812 00:33:00,570 --> 00:33:02,940 all your money in with his hand versus letting 813 00:33:02,940 --> 00:33:03,850 them see some cards. 814 00:33:03,850 --> 00:33:04,350 Yeah. 815 00:33:04,350 --> 00:33:05,310 All right, cool. 816 00:33:07,820 --> 00:33:10,760 OK, so just how good does my had have to be to raise? 817 00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,410 And the question depends on the effective stack size. 818 00:33:13,410 --> 00:33:16,460 But when the effective stack size is fairly deep-- 819 00:33:16,460 --> 00:33:20,150 so let's say 40 big blinds, I think it's about the cut-- 820 00:33:20,150 --> 00:33:23,210 40 big blinds or deeper So, you know, you have a lot of chips. 821 00:33:23,210 --> 00:33:26,450 You're playing for a lot of chips relative to the blinds. 822 00:33:26,450 --> 00:33:30,200 You need a pretty good hand to want to put all your money in. 823 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,230 So a general rule of thumb is two-pair or bigger. 824 00:33:33,230 --> 00:33:36,200 And yeah, once again, this is only applicable 825 00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:37,970 when the effective stack size is large. 826 00:33:37,970 --> 00:33:39,470 And a lot of the online tournaments, 827 00:33:39,470 --> 00:33:41,990 especially the ones where the blinds go up quickly, 828 00:33:41,990 --> 00:33:45,150 the effective stack size can be around 10 or even lower 829 00:33:45,150 --> 00:33:46,320 pretty quickly. 830 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:46,820 Yeah? 831 00:33:46,820 --> 00:33:48,705 AUDIENCE: How much do all of these decisions 832 00:33:48,705 --> 00:33:51,510 depend on their position or your position? 833 00:33:51,510 --> 00:33:53,930 WILL MA: OK, that's a very good question, actually. 834 00:33:53,930 --> 00:33:57,320 Right, so in this situation-- 835 00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,470 so the answer is essentially-- yeah, it depends a lot in this. 836 00:34:00,470 --> 00:34:03,470 The examples I gave are specifically for the button. 837 00:34:03,470 --> 00:34:06,730 Yeah, so, I would say if they were under the gun instead 838 00:34:06,730 --> 00:34:11,090 of the button, you need to play somewhat differently 839 00:34:11,090 --> 00:34:13,880 because they're going to have-- because on the button, 840 00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:15,650 they're going to have 55% of hands. 841 00:34:15,650 --> 00:34:19,440 And let's say, here, like 10-9 is a possibility. 842 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,845 But actually, maybe a better example is-- 843 00:34:21,845 --> 00:34:25,100 now, I think this is a board where it's really different. 844 00:34:25,100 --> 00:34:28,969 Because against a-- if they raise from the button, 845 00:34:28,969 --> 00:34:31,040 you know they could have 55% of hands. 846 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:33,300 And ace-3 is a pretty good hand here. 847 00:34:33,300 --> 00:34:36,050 But if they raise from under the gun and they're pretty tight 848 00:34:36,050 --> 00:34:39,230 and their range is-- pocket 8's are better and ace-queen, 849 00:34:39,230 --> 00:34:43,096 ace-jack, ace-king, then you're doing a lot worse. 850 00:34:43,096 --> 00:34:43,596 Yeah. 851 00:34:43,596 --> 00:34:45,480 So yeah, so it definitely matters a lot. 852 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,150 And yeah, I mean-- 853 00:34:47,150 --> 00:34:50,340 yeah, so I guess I can't go through every single 854 00:34:50,340 --> 00:34:51,199 possibility, right? 855 00:34:51,199 --> 00:34:56,130 Like this position, this stack size, with this [INAUDIBLE].. 856 00:34:56,130 --> 00:34:58,785 So yeah, so you do have to do a bit of extrapolation. 857 00:34:58,785 --> 00:35:00,930 Like if they're-- right now in these examples, 858 00:35:00,930 --> 00:35:01,850 they're the button. 859 00:35:01,850 --> 00:35:03,308 If they're the cut-off, their range 860 00:35:03,308 --> 00:35:04,660 is going to be a bit stronger. 861 00:35:04,660 --> 00:35:05,650 If they're the hijack, their range 862 00:35:05,650 --> 00:35:07,040 will be a bit stronger, yeah. 863 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:08,456 Yeah, that's a very good question. 864 00:35:08,456 --> 00:35:10,396 Yeah, very, very good point. 865 00:35:10,396 --> 00:35:12,270 Yeah, because in all the analysis I just did, 866 00:35:12,270 --> 00:35:14,885 I'm assuming their range includes hands as bad 867 00:35:14,885 --> 00:35:17,610 as like, 8-7 suited and stuff, which 868 00:35:17,610 --> 00:35:21,860 isn't going to be the case if they were an earlier position. 869 00:35:21,860 --> 00:35:25,610 OK, so-- all right, so how good does my hand 870 00:35:25,610 --> 00:35:27,470 have to be to raise? 871 00:35:27,470 --> 00:35:29,220 So, two-pair or better, but by two-pair 872 00:35:29,220 --> 00:35:32,690 or better, I mean two-pair where both of your cards make a pair. 873 00:35:32,690 --> 00:35:35,100 Here, where one pair is on the flop, 874 00:35:35,100 --> 00:35:37,100 I wouldn't count this as two-pair. 875 00:35:37,100 --> 00:35:39,120 And this two-pair is complete trash 876 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:40,364 because any card beats you. 877 00:35:40,364 --> 00:35:43,220 So I wouldn't go on here. 878 00:35:43,220 --> 00:35:45,920 This one is also pretty bad. 879 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:46,490 So, OK. 880 00:35:46,490 --> 00:35:47,810 So now, when would we raise? 881 00:35:47,810 --> 00:35:51,470 OK, so I think this is what-- this is basically the best 882 00:35:51,470 --> 00:35:54,160 thing that can happen to you in poker, pretty much-- 883 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:55,800 almost this exact situation. 884 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,800 So here, we've got three of a kind. 885 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:02,474 And there's also a lot of draws. 886 00:36:02,474 --> 00:36:04,640 So we're going to get played back at a decent amount 887 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:05,889 because you could have hearts. 888 00:36:05,889 --> 00:36:07,724 He'd have like queen-jack. 889 00:36:07,724 --> 00:36:09,890 There's just so much stuff that isn't going to fold, 890 00:36:09,890 --> 00:36:11,806 and we're always going to be way ahead of him. 891 00:36:11,806 --> 00:36:14,810 Pretty much always going to be way ahead. 892 00:36:14,810 --> 00:36:15,470 So, it's sweet. 893 00:36:15,470 --> 00:36:18,380 I actually think this is very close to the dream situation. 894 00:36:18,380 --> 00:36:21,140 Does anyone have an idea of why this situation is almost, 895 00:36:21,140 --> 00:36:26,670 in some sense, even better than say, we had pocket 10's? 896 00:36:26,670 --> 00:36:27,170 Yeah? 897 00:36:27,170 --> 00:36:29,450 AUDIENCE: If you have pocket 10s, that's why you tap a 10? 898 00:36:29,450 --> 00:36:30,158 WILL MA: Exactly. 899 00:36:30,158 --> 00:36:32,510 OK, I'm going to give you a $20 boost. 900 00:36:32,510 --> 00:36:35,510 [CHUCKLING] 901 00:36:36,010 --> 00:36:37,874 No more playoffs today. 902 00:36:37,874 --> 00:36:38,874 So you're going to see-- 903 00:36:38,874 --> 00:36:40,280 OK, right. 904 00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:41,990 So it's almost even better in some sense 905 00:36:41,990 --> 00:36:45,640 you have pocket 5's because as Ben said, 906 00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,352 if you have pocket 5's, he could have a 10 907 00:36:48,352 --> 00:36:49,600 and put in a lot of money. 908 00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:52,130 If you have pocket 10's even though you're crushing even 909 00:36:52,130 --> 00:36:54,844 harder, it's almost like you've taken all the good cards away 910 00:36:54,844 --> 00:36:56,510 and then he's just always going to fold. 911 00:36:56,510 --> 00:37:00,500 So, OK, here's another situation where your hand's very good, 912 00:37:00,500 --> 00:37:03,554 although I think you can make a case for just calling here. 913 00:37:03,554 --> 00:37:04,970 Yeah, I don't want to say you have 914 00:37:04,970 --> 00:37:07,640 to raise because your hand is just so invulnerable. 915 00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,484 And even though the chances that he 916 00:37:09,484 --> 00:37:11,900 has that the remaining ace and a better card to go with it 917 00:37:11,900 --> 00:37:15,870 is pretty small, there is still a lot of, I guess, 918 00:37:15,870 --> 00:37:18,830 adverse selection in this case because there's no draws. 919 00:37:18,830 --> 00:37:21,990 When you raise, he will fold a lot of stuff. 920 00:37:21,990 --> 00:37:23,959 And the stuff that he does play-- 921 00:37:23,959 --> 00:37:26,000 it's not going to only include the remaining ace. 922 00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,430 Like, he will call with pocket 7's almost certainly, 923 00:37:28,430 --> 00:37:30,570 but it does include-- 924 00:37:30,570 --> 00:37:32,820 it does significantly make his range 925 00:37:32,820 --> 00:37:34,760 more likely to be the ace that beats you. 926 00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:38,089 So, I think just calling is OK. 927 00:37:38,089 --> 00:37:40,130 Here, obviously, you have the best possible hand. 928 00:37:40,130 --> 00:37:41,780 Although, once again, I think just 929 00:37:41,780 --> 00:37:45,560 calling as a sort of a trap is reasonable. 930 00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,120 Although I would advocate just raising. 931 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:49,580 I think it's the simpler play. 932 00:37:49,580 --> 00:37:50,600 You know, a calling-- 933 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,254 I think you'll see a lot of high stakes players do as a trap, 934 00:37:54,254 --> 00:37:55,670 but it's a very, very tricky play. 935 00:37:55,670 --> 00:37:57,830 I think raising definitely has lots of merits 936 00:37:57,830 --> 00:38:01,847 because if they've got king-- like even ace-king, 937 00:38:01,847 --> 00:38:02,930 they're not going to fold. 938 00:38:02,930 --> 00:38:04,614 They just want to get all the money in. 939 00:38:04,614 --> 00:38:07,030 Because they're probably going to think you're more likely 940 00:38:07,030 --> 00:38:09,740 you have a single heart than two hearts. 941 00:38:09,740 --> 00:38:11,360 So if they had ace-king, especially 942 00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,120 when it's only 40 big blinds, they're probably just going 943 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:15,960 to be happy putting all the money in, 944 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,530 and before you can see a fourth heart. 945 00:38:18,530 --> 00:38:20,930 So, like in this case, even though you 946 00:38:20,930 --> 00:38:23,280 don't need a fourth heart to make a flush, 947 00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,110 a fourth card is a really bad card for you, 948 00:38:25,110 --> 00:38:26,818 because that sort of kills all the action 949 00:38:26,818 --> 00:38:28,550 that you're getting from a king-- 950 00:38:28,550 --> 00:38:30,450 from a pair of kings or something. 951 00:38:30,450 --> 00:38:34,220 Yeah, OK, so this is a similar situation. 952 00:38:34,220 --> 00:38:38,240 Although in this case, I would say a raise is mandatory. 953 00:38:38,240 --> 00:38:40,910 In the previous case, I think it's not mandatory 954 00:38:40,910 --> 00:38:42,900 because your hand is so safe. 955 00:38:42,900 --> 00:38:46,310 If you decide to try to trap your opponent, 956 00:38:46,310 --> 00:38:48,200 you'll never end up trapping yourself. 957 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:52,110 Whereas here, if they just have any heart higher than a 6, 958 00:38:52,110 --> 00:38:55,040 if a fourth heart comes, they are beating you now. 959 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,890 And worst of all is, let's say they have 960 00:38:57,890 --> 00:38:59,972 10 of hearts, 9 of diamonds. 961 00:38:59,972 --> 00:39:01,430 If you raise, you could have easily 962 00:39:01,430 --> 00:39:04,526 gotten them to fold that 10 of hearts, probably. 963 00:39:04,526 --> 00:39:07,010 Although, that 10 of hearts, 9 of diamonds is a bit good. 964 00:39:07,010 --> 00:39:09,345 Let's say like 9 of hearts, 8 of diamonds. 965 00:39:09,345 --> 00:39:11,720 They almost certainly would've folded their higher heart, 966 00:39:11,720 --> 00:39:16,490 and now you just lost an entire pot because you didn't raise. 967 00:39:16,490 --> 00:39:18,897 So here, I would raise. 968 00:39:18,897 --> 00:39:19,730 You have a straight. 969 00:39:19,730 --> 00:39:21,680 You are drawing dead if they have a flush. 970 00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,685 But with only 40 big blinds, I think the chances of a flush 971 00:39:24,685 --> 00:39:27,290 is unlikely enough that getting in is OK. 972 00:39:27,290 --> 00:39:30,380 With 100 big blinds, you could still raise, but probably 973 00:39:30,380 --> 00:39:32,580 not go all in. 974 00:39:32,580 --> 00:39:34,650 Two-pair-- the board is sort of scary, 975 00:39:34,650 --> 00:39:36,750 but two-pair is definitely good enough here. 976 00:39:36,750 --> 00:39:38,955 So-- 977 00:39:38,955 --> 00:39:40,580 All right, so, these are examples where 978 00:39:40,580 --> 00:39:41,840 you had really good hands. 979 00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:43,923 And I said you should just raise and get the money 980 00:39:43,923 --> 00:39:46,080 and then be happy about it. 981 00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:47,790 So do I need such a good hand? 982 00:39:47,790 --> 00:39:51,040 There's some other situations where a one-pair hand 983 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:52,020 is sort of good enough. 984 00:39:52,020 --> 00:39:55,850 And so, coming back to the ace-jack example, you asked. 985 00:39:55,850 --> 00:39:57,752 So, we'll see some of that. 986 00:39:57,752 --> 00:39:59,210 OK, so in this case, I think if you 987 00:39:59,210 --> 00:40:01,340 have pocket aces, that's definitely 988 00:40:01,340 --> 00:40:02,530 good enough to get it in. 989 00:40:02,530 --> 00:40:05,444 Although, you shouldn't have pocket aces that often 990 00:40:05,444 --> 00:40:06,860 here because most of the time, you 991 00:40:06,860 --> 00:40:08,720 should be re-raising preflop. 992 00:40:08,720 --> 00:40:12,410 But if you decide not to raise pocket aces preflop 993 00:40:12,410 --> 00:40:16,630 and you end up with it here, then I guess raising is good. 994 00:40:16,630 --> 00:40:18,380 You're going to be having the better hand. 995 00:40:18,380 --> 00:40:20,772 Although, if you were trapping them preflop, 996 00:40:20,772 --> 00:40:22,980 maybe you just want to trap them again and call again 997 00:40:22,980 --> 00:40:25,916 since there's not that many scary cards. 998 00:40:25,916 --> 00:40:28,040 So here's an example of an ace-jack situation where 999 00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,977 I think getting in is fine just because there's still draws 1000 00:40:31,977 --> 00:40:34,310 and there's still lots of worse hands that will give you 1001 00:40:34,310 --> 00:40:37,440 action, but overall, your equity against their range 1002 00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:41,660 is much, much higher on jack-7-deuce than jack-10-9. 1003 00:40:41,660 --> 00:40:44,260 So I would just raise and be happy getting in 40 big blinds 1004 00:40:44,260 --> 00:40:46,630 here. 1005 00:40:46,630 --> 00:40:47,810 Here's a similar example-- 1006 00:40:47,810 --> 00:40:48,790 king-jack. 1007 00:40:48,790 --> 00:40:50,880 But we've also got the second best flush draw, 1008 00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:55,580 so it's just very hard to get in back. 1009 00:40:55,580 --> 00:40:58,160 OK, so we'll see some examples where we have fewer chips. 1010 00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,470 So in the last case, all the hands, 1011 00:41:00,470 --> 00:41:02,450 we essentially had 40 big blinds-- essentially 1012 00:41:02,450 --> 00:41:04,312 had a lot of chips. 1013 00:41:04,312 --> 00:41:06,620 So, OK, so now, let's look at a situation 1014 00:41:06,620 --> 00:41:07,610 where all the players-- 1015 00:41:07,610 --> 00:41:11,090 so we only have 1,250 to start the hand, 1016 00:41:11,090 --> 00:41:13,720 so that's 25 big blinds. 1017 00:41:13,720 --> 00:41:17,820 And, OK, so in this case, even if you've 1018 00:41:17,820 --> 00:41:20,900 got top pair with a mediocre kicker, 1019 00:41:20,900 --> 00:41:24,920 I would just be prepared to go all in because we 1020 00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:26,980 risking a lot fewer chips. 1021 00:41:26,980 --> 00:41:29,910 We're risking a lot fewer chips relative to the blinds. 1022 00:41:29,910 --> 00:41:31,857 So here, I would just go all in. 1023 00:41:31,857 --> 00:41:34,190 So here are some-- yes, so I'm showing you some examples 1024 00:41:34,190 --> 00:41:37,430 where if I'm 40 or more big blinds deep, 1025 00:41:37,430 --> 00:41:39,380 I wouldn't be happy getting all my money in. 1026 00:41:39,380 --> 00:41:41,300 But when I'm only 25 big blinds deep, 1027 00:41:41,300 --> 00:41:44,780 I'm very happy to get all my money in. 1028 00:41:44,780 --> 00:41:47,000 This is another example-- top pair, top kicker. 1029 00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:48,770 It is a scary board in some sense, 1030 00:41:48,770 --> 00:41:53,120 but you've just got to gamble for it when the pot is already 1031 00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:57,670 so big on the flop relative to your stack. 1032 00:41:57,670 --> 00:41:58,850 Same thing again here. 1033 00:41:58,850 --> 00:42:01,552 So earlier, I had some examples of this on-- 1034 00:42:01,552 --> 00:42:03,510 similar to this where I said, you just call it, 1035 00:42:03,510 --> 00:42:05,710 but when you've only got-- 1036 00:42:05,710 --> 00:42:08,390 when you've only got four to five times the flop-- 1037 00:42:08,390 --> 00:42:10,970 I'm sorry, 45 times the pot on the flop, 1038 00:42:10,970 --> 00:42:14,420 I would just go for it. 1039 00:42:14,420 --> 00:42:17,382 OK, I'll quickly run through this section. 1040 00:42:17,382 --> 00:42:21,740 This is a slightly more advanced play where-- 1041 00:42:21,740 --> 00:42:24,230 it's where you don't check to the preflop raisers. 1042 00:42:24,230 --> 00:42:25,850 So this whole time, I've been talking 1043 00:42:25,850 --> 00:42:29,420 about checking to preflop raiser as a form of respect-- 1044 00:42:29,420 --> 00:42:32,510 respecting that the preflop raiser's range contains aces 1045 00:42:32,510 --> 00:42:35,330 and yours probably doesn't. 1046 00:42:35,330 --> 00:42:36,950 So when do we want to lead? 1047 00:42:36,950 --> 00:42:38,940 So from a theoretical point of view, 1048 00:42:38,940 --> 00:42:40,910 so from a trying-to-play-optimally point 1049 00:42:40,910 --> 00:42:45,470 of view, essentially we want to lead flops that hit our range 1050 00:42:45,470 --> 00:42:49,550 better than his, even though his range contains aces, 1051 00:42:49,550 --> 00:42:51,560 which is like a universal best hand. 1052 00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,750 So they're rare, but they do exist. 1053 00:42:53,750 --> 00:42:55,460 And I think it's OK if you never lead, 1054 00:42:55,460 --> 00:42:59,150 but I'm going to run through this section showing 1055 00:42:59,150 --> 00:43:01,190 some examples where I think leading is fun. 1056 00:43:01,190 --> 00:43:03,860 But I think it's an advanced, unnecessary play. 1057 00:43:03,860 --> 00:43:07,360 So, OK, so here's an example. 1058 00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:08,510 I hope this is visible. 1059 00:43:08,510 --> 00:43:10,560 So we won't-- we're pretty shallow here. 1060 00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,430 So most of the situations where leading is good, 1061 00:43:13,430 --> 00:43:16,160 you're fairly shallow. 1062 00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,245 So a cut-off two [INAUDIBLE]. 1063 00:43:18,245 --> 00:43:21,970 So one from the button makes it 1,200 at 300, 600. 1064 00:43:21,970 --> 00:43:23,000 And there's antes. 1065 00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:28,600 So, we call with 9-deuce suited with 4 and 1/2 to 1 odds. 1066 00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:32,630 OK, so-- and so, here, we flop 2-5-6. 1067 00:43:32,630 --> 00:43:37,460 And I lead a third of pot, planning essentially 1068 00:43:37,460 --> 00:43:41,240 to get all my money in because we're so shallow. 1069 00:43:41,240 --> 00:43:43,460 Like, I only started the hand with 10 big blinds. 1070 00:43:43,460 --> 00:43:45,620 Essentially any pair is going to be good enough 1071 00:43:45,620 --> 00:43:47,660 to get all my money in, although, maybe 1072 00:43:47,660 --> 00:43:49,160 not if you raise from under the gun. 1073 00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:52,700 But from cut-off, I'm happy to put all my money 1074 00:43:52,700 --> 00:43:54,200 in against this. 1075 00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:55,230 So what's the rationale? 1076 00:43:55,230 --> 00:43:57,680 So, our hand's good enough to put all our money in. 1077 00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,560 And it's essentially a better flop for our range 1078 00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:05,630 because we're short enough where the immediate equity 1079 00:44:05,630 --> 00:44:08,390 preflop means so much to us what we're calling 1080 00:44:08,390 --> 00:44:10,190 a very wide range of hands. 1081 00:44:10,190 --> 00:44:13,730 Basically, a lot of hands that includes 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's, 1082 00:44:13,730 --> 00:44:17,270 and 6's, whereas his range, he opened from button-- 1083 00:44:17,270 --> 00:44:19,340 sorry, he opened from cut-off. 1084 00:44:19,340 --> 00:44:21,730 You know, even though it contains more monstrous hands 1085 00:44:21,730 --> 00:44:24,830 than ours, like pocket aces, it also just contains a lot 1086 00:44:24,830 --> 00:44:27,800 of hands like jack-10, queen-10-- 1087 00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,230 basically, hands that don't connect with this board. 1088 00:44:30,230 --> 00:44:33,815 Because if he had 6-5, he probably isn't going to open, 1089 00:44:33,815 --> 00:44:35,690 at least, I don't think by my recommendations 1090 00:44:35,690 --> 00:44:37,220 he should be opening 6-5. 1091 00:44:37,220 --> 00:44:39,230 Whereas we could have hands like 6-5, 1092 00:44:39,230 --> 00:44:42,500 we can have hands like 4-3. 1093 00:44:42,500 --> 00:44:43,490 So I'll lead here. 1094 00:44:43,490 --> 00:44:45,740 So it's basically essentially saying, 1095 00:44:45,740 --> 00:44:47,420 you know, I'm no longer respecting you 1096 00:44:47,420 --> 00:44:50,030 because the flop came in a very specific way 1097 00:44:50,030 --> 00:44:52,370 where now my range of hands is actually better 1098 00:44:52,370 --> 00:44:53,520 than your range of hands. 1099 00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,280 So I'm essentially the preflop aggressor. 1100 00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,410 I'm going to bet and try to make the pot big 1101 00:44:57,410 --> 00:44:59,930 and force you into a tough situation with your weaker 1102 00:44:59,930 --> 00:45:02,600 range. 1103 00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:04,910 And yeah, and we can play like this with our good hands 1104 00:45:04,910 --> 00:45:07,460 and with our bad hands, like 7-3. 1105 00:45:07,460 --> 00:45:11,780 We have a gutshot, but we can bluff a bit. 1106 00:45:11,780 --> 00:45:13,310 So here's another example. 1107 00:45:13,310 --> 00:45:14,990 So, under the gun raises. 1108 00:45:14,990 --> 00:45:16,560 We call with ace-9 suited, which I 1109 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,800 think is a bit speculative, but whatever. 1110 00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:20,960 We just had to call. 1111 00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:24,450 And we lead a 10-7-5 flop where we have a flush draw. 1112 00:45:24,450 --> 00:45:27,620 And once again, I think it's reasonable. 1113 00:45:27,620 --> 00:45:30,290 So it's deep-- it's fairly deep, but we can have-- 1114 00:45:30,290 --> 00:45:34,780 even though they can have aces, we can have more hands like-- 1115 00:45:34,780 --> 00:45:36,800 we can have more pocket 5's, pocket 7's. 1116 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:37,770 Tighter hands than him. 1117 00:45:37,770 --> 00:45:39,740 He might not open those. 1118 00:45:39,740 --> 00:45:42,320 And also, he almost certainly isn't ever 1119 00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:44,210 going to have 9-8 of diamonds or jack-9 1120 00:45:44,210 --> 00:45:47,660 of diamonds-- hands that are basically monstrous draws, 1121 00:45:47,660 --> 00:45:48,860 whereas we can. 1122 00:45:48,860 --> 00:45:51,590 So once again, I'd bet because I don't really 1123 00:45:51,590 --> 00:45:55,180 want him to check back ace-king or pocket 8's or something, 1124 00:45:55,180 --> 00:45:58,580 which he probably will, because if they have ace-king, 1125 00:45:58,580 --> 00:46:01,380 they're going to think the board is fairly scary. 1126 00:46:01,380 --> 00:46:03,880 They're probably not going to fold that much because there's 1127 00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:05,110 so many draws if I bet. 1128 00:46:05,110 --> 00:46:07,120 So they're just going to check back ace-king. 1129 00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:09,400 And that essentially has-- 1130 00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:11,430 that essentially has two problems, 1131 00:46:11,430 --> 00:46:13,600 is we're not beating ace-king unless we improve, 1132 00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:17,140 so by betting, we basically we just make the pot bigger 1133 00:46:17,140 --> 00:46:21,190 against ace-king and 9's, and we can get them to fold. 1134 00:46:21,190 --> 00:46:25,570 Whereas if we check, it might just checked down. 1135 00:46:25,570 --> 00:46:28,090 And yeah, so-- so yeah. 1136 00:46:28,090 --> 00:46:29,710 One caveat about leading though is 1137 00:46:29,710 --> 00:46:32,590 if your opponent knows leading is part of your strategy, 1138 00:46:32,590 --> 00:46:36,550 then your range is significantly weaker when you actually check. 1139 00:46:36,550 --> 00:46:38,677 So as a result, if your opponent knows 1140 00:46:38,677 --> 00:46:40,385 you're the type of player who, let's say, 1141 00:46:40,385 --> 00:46:42,440 on a-- you know, so this is really getting 1142 00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,220 higher-- next and next level. 1143 00:46:44,220 --> 00:46:46,630 But if they know that you're the type of player 1144 00:46:46,630 --> 00:46:48,880 you will lead a lot of your hands 1145 00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:52,360 on a 2-5-6 flop in this specific situation, 1146 00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,180 then when you check to them with a hand like jack-10, 1147 00:46:55,180 --> 00:46:57,050 they can basically just bet and know 1148 00:46:57,050 --> 00:47:00,400 you'll almost certainly fold, because you're leading 1149 00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:01,570 a lot of your good hands. 1150 00:47:01,570 --> 00:47:04,590 So that's another caveat about leading. 1151 00:47:04,590 --> 00:47:07,355 It's very tricky to balance correctly 1152 00:47:07,355 --> 00:47:09,840 because you need to-- you know, if you're leading bluffs, 1153 00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:12,280 you need to also lead some good hands to balance it out. 1154 00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,276 But then you also need to check some good hands occasionally 1155 00:47:15,276 --> 00:47:16,900 to balance out all the bad hands you're 1156 00:47:16,900 --> 00:47:19,660 checking so that your opponent can't just bet for free. 1157 00:47:19,660 --> 00:47:21,420 So it's a very tricky play. 1158 00:47:21,420 --> 00:47:24,940 I wanted to quickly run through it to just say it's out there, 1159 00:47:24,940 --> 00:47:28,332 and when you watch poker and you see people not automatically 1160 00:47:28,332 --> 00:47:30,040 check to the preflop aggressor, just sort 1161 00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:31,510 of giving you an idea of why. 1162 00:47:31,510 --> 00:47:34,390 But it is a fairly advanced and tricky play. 1163 00:47:34,390 --> 00:47:37,300 And it's easy to make mistakes leading, which is why I think-- 1164 00:47:37,300 --> 00:47:39,790 you know, I think it's fine if throughout this course 1165 00:47:39,790 --> 00:47:42,570 you never lead. 1166 00:47:42,570 --> 00:47:44,830 OK, so now we're going to talk get some implied odds 1167 00:47:44,830 --> 00:47:46,570 and reverse implied odds. 1168 00:47:46,570 --> 00:47:48,730 So, OK, so here's a situation. 1169 00:47:48,730 --> 00:47:52,540 So note that-- so we have the worst hand in poker. 1170 00:47:52,540 --> 00:47:56,590 We've got-- we've only got three big blinds, OK? 1171 00:47:56,590 --> 00:47:59,350 And hijack raises to 2,400. 1172 00:47:59,350 --> 00:48:02,690 So the question is, do we want to call in this situation? 1173 00:48:02,690 --> 00:48:05,380 So we're putting in 1,600. 1174 00:48:05,380 --> 00:48:07,990 So we can do a quick equity calculation. 1175 00:48:07,990 --> 00:48:09,220 So if we call, we're all in. 1176 00:48:09,220 --> 00:48:11,530 So the only thing that matters is the equity 1177 00:48:11,530 --> 00:48:12,946 of our hand against his range. 1178 00:48:12,946 --> 00:48:14,320 That's essentially the only thing 1179 00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,240 that matters because he has no more decisions. 1180 00:48:16,240 --> 00:48:18,370 So optimal play doesn't even matter in this case. 1181 00:48:18,370 --> 00:48:22,130 It's a strict mathematical expectation calculation. 1182 00:48:22,130 --> 00:48:25,430 And we're actually-- so basically, 1183 00:48:25,430 --> 00:48:27,190 we need a call two big blinds. 1184 00:48:27,190 --> 00:48:29,260 So 1,600-- that's two big blinds. 1185 00:48:29,260 --> 00:48:33,520 To win how much is already in the pot is 5 and 1/2, right? 1186 00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:34,720 5 and 1/2 big blinds. 1187 00:48:34,720 --> 00:48:36,010 So they made a big raise here. 1188 00:48:36,010 --> 00:48:39,650 They made it 3x. 1189 00:48:39,650 --> 00:48:43,810 So we need 2 over 7.5, which is 27% equity. 1190 00:48:43,810 --> 00:48:45,970 And if we put him on a reasonable range 1191 00:48:45,970 --> 00:48:48,130 for that position, we have 28% equity, 1192 00:48:48,130 --> 00:48:49,317 which is enough to call. 1193 00:48:49,317 --> 00:48:50,900 So I think calling is a fine play, OK? 1194 00:48:50,900 --> 00:48:52,710 I'm not winning in front of this person who 1195 00:48:52,710 --> 00:48:54,790 I think probably was me. 1196 00:48:54,790 --> 00:48:56,690 So, yeah, calling's a fine play. 1197 00:48:56,690 --> 00:49:00,220 And so, now, but I want to emphasize, OK? 1198 00:49:00,220 --> 00:49:01,990 So if calling is a good play because it's 1199 00:49:01,990 --> 00:49:04,660 positive expectancy, why don't we 1200 00:49:04,660 --> 00:49:08,530 call when we have more chips? 1201 00:49:08,530 --> 00:49:12,100 So in this situation, if someone called, 1202 00:49:12,100 --> 00:49:14,020 they would probably be ridiculed, right? 1203 00:49:14,020 --> 00:49:18,019 Why are you calling with 2-7 offsuit against a hijack 1204 00:49:18,019 --> 00:49:19,810 raise that isn't even giving you good odds, 1205 00:49:19,810 --> 00:49:22,880 because they raised it 3x, which is a big raise. 1206 00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:26,320 So why is it bad in this case, when you have more chips? 1207 00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,180 And the reason is essentially what's 1208 00:49:28,180 --> 00:49:30,280 called reverse implied odds. 1209 00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,140 So in the first situation, we called because we were all in, 1210 00:49:33,140 --> 00:49:35,560 and the equity calculations said we could. 1211 00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:37,510 But in the second situation, even 1212 00:49:37,510 --> 00:49:39,400 though the equity calculation is the same 1213 00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:42,400 and we do have the right odds to call preflop, 1214 00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:43,750 the hand isn't over. 1215 00:49:43,750 --> 00:49:47,320 There is still potentially 46,000 more chips 1216 00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:48,970 to be put in postflop. 1217 00:49:48,970 --> 00:49:52,075 And with a hand like 7-deuce offsuit, 1218 00:49:52,075 --> 00:49:54,850 not only is it a weak hand, it's very hard to play. 1219 00:49:54,850 --> 00:49:57,050 When we hit a pair, we hit a small pair. 1220 00:49:57,050 --> 00:49:59,680 We're often not going to be sure whether we have the better 1221 00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:00,440 hand. 1222 00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,061 We're going to have to decide whether to fold or call them 1223 00:50:03,061 --> 00:50:03,560 down. 1224 00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,410 And we're often going to be wrong. 1225 00:50:05,410 --> 00:50:08,140 So, it's a very, very easy fold in this situation 1226 00:50:08,140 --> 00:50:11,200 even though you have the odds, because these reverse implied 1227 00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:14,890 odds hurt you so much when there is still potentially 1228 00:50:14,890 --> 00:50:19,000 46,000 to play for postflop. 1229 00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,820 OK, so here, let's say instead of 7-2 offsuit, 1230 00:50:21,820 --> 00:50:23,620 I had ace-2 offsuit. 1231 00:50:23,620 --> 00:50:25,100 I would still fold. 1232 00:50:25,100 --> 00:50:27,430 So if you do the same equity calculation, 1233 00:50:27,430 --> 00:50:32,420 we actually have 43% against his range, which is tremendous. 1234 00:50:32,420 --> 00:50:37,270 But you only need 27% equity to all in, right? 1235 00:50:37,270 --> 00:50:40,195 So, why would we fold when we have 43% equity 1236 00:50:40,195 --> 00:50:42,220 and we only need 27% equity? 1237 00:50:42,220 --> 00:50:46,780 That reason is because, once again, reverse implied odds. 1238 00:50:46,780 --> 00:50:48,700 So, there used to be actually be this way you 1239 00:50:48,700 --> 00:50:50,690 could cheat in online poker. 1240 00:50:50,690 --> 00:50:52,360 So they had this thing called disconnect 1241 00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,530 protection which is someone disconnects-- this 1242 00:50:55,530 --> 00:50:57,130 is really stupid. 1243 00:50:57,130 --> 00:50:59,490 I got cheated by this so many times. 1244 00:50:59,490 --> 00:51:02,370 Basically, if you disconnected, instead of your hand 1245 00:51:02,370 --> 00:51:05,370 getting folded, essentially there's no more betting 1246 00:51:05,370 --> 00:51:08,460 and all the cards are dealt. And the person who wins the hand 1247 00:51:08,460 --> 00:51:09,390 just wins the pot. 1248 00:51:09,390 --> 00:51:11,512 OK, so essentially by disconnecting, 1249 00:51:11,512 --> 00:51:12,720 you could say, OK, screw you. 1250 00:51:12,720 --> 00:51:13,860 There's no more betting. 1251 00:51:13,860 --> 00:51:15,120 We're just going to see until the river, 1252 00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,453 and whoever wins the hand is going to win the whole pot. 1253 00:51:17,453 --> 00:51:19,770 So basically, you could cheat in this situation 1254 00:51:19,770 --> 00:51:23,170 even if you had 7-2 offsuit, by just calling and then 1255 00:51:23,170 --> 00:51:24,450 disconnecting immediately. 1256 00:51:24,450 --> 00:51:27,510 And then none of this reverse implied odds exist. 1257 00:51:27,510 --> 00:51:30,340 But you can't cheat like this anymore, 1258 00:51:30,340 --> 00:51:32,164 so don't try to make that play. 1259 00:51:32,164 --> 00:51:34,580 So yeah, so in this case, even though you have 43% equity, 1260 00:51:34,580 --> 00:51:37,050 I would fold. 1261 00:51:37,050 --> 00:51:39,560 Here, with 9-8 suited, it's a whole different story. 1262 00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:43,440 We only have 37% equity, which is worse than 43%. 1263 00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:45,510 But I would call. 1264 00:51:45,510 --> 00:51:48,360 With 9-8 suited, you can make a flush 1265 00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:49,800 and make a better hand than him. 1266 00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,300 You can make a straight and get him to put in a lot of money 1267 00:51:52,300 --> 00:51:54,025 with a good pair. 1268 00:51:54,025 --> 00:51:55,650 And yeah, you're still out of position. 1269 00:51:55,650 --> 00:51:57,730 You still have to act second. 1270 00:51:57,730 --> 00:52:02,680 But overall, it's just a much better situation. 1271 00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:07,130 OK, so now, I want to talk about implied odds. 1272 00:52:07,130 --> 00:52:10,720 So with the 9-8 suited, you know, I sort of talked about-- 1273 00:52:10,720 --> 00:52:12,560 the implied odds, the fact that you still 1274 00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:16,017 have to play for more chips after on the turn and river 1275 00:52:16,017 --> 00:52:17,600 almost works in your favor because you 1276 00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:20,390 can make straights and flushes and have a very good hand 1277 00:52:20,390 --> 00:52:22,100 and be fairly certain you're winning, 1278 00:52:22,100 --> 00:52:25,760 and get him to put in more money with a worse hand. 1279 00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:27,560 So implied odds is basically, yeah, 1280 00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:31,340 it's when the odds are in your favor 1281 00:52:31,340 --> 00:52:35,260 because you're playing a hand that plays well postflop. 1282 00:52:35,260 --> 00:52:39,177 OK, so-- OK, so let's look at an example 1283 00:52:39,177 --> 00:52:40,760 where implied odds, I think, are good. 1284 00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:42,230 So this is called set mining. 1285 00:52:42,230 --> 00:52:44,240 This is a play that's, I think-- 1286 00:52:44,240 --> 00:52:47,090 so, I'm going to go through it even though it's a play that's 1287 00:52:47,090 --> 00:52:48,310 sort of dying in poker. 1288 00:52:48,310 --> 00:52:51,050 I think it's a play that no longer works that 1289 00:52:51,050 --> 00:52:55,310 well in practice nowadays, at least at like, at fairly 1290 00:52:55,310 --> 00:52:56,490 high stakes. 1291 00:52:56,490 --> 00:52:59,390 But it's in theory, I think it teaches you a very good thing 1292 00:52:59,390 --> 00:53:01,400 about implied odds. 1293 00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:05,760 So, in this case, under the gun raises to 3x-- 1294 00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:08,810 2,400 when the blinds are 400, 800. 1295 00:53:08,810 --> 00:53:11,480 And we decide to call. 1296 00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:14,570 So if you do the calculation, we don't have enough equity 1297 00:53:14,570 --> 00:53:16,670 to call, but why do we call? 1298 00:53:16,670 --> 00:53:19,100 So essentially, we're in a position 1299 00:53:19,100 --> 00:53:21,200 because we have the button. 1300 00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:24,050 And also, we can win essentially a huge pot 1301 00:53:24,050 --> 00:53:26,000 when we hit a third deuce. 1302 00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:28,990 So now, this only happens a small percent of the time. 1303 00:53:28,990 --> 00:53:31,660 And if you do the calculation, this happens roughly 1/8 1304 00:53:31,660 --> 00:53:32,560 of the time. 1305 00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:34,790 You're going to hit a third deuce 1/8 of the time. 1306 00:53:34,790 --> 00:53:37,157 And essentially when you don't hit a deuce, 1307 00:53:37,157 --> 00:53:38,740 you're against an under-the-gun raise, 1308 00:53:38,740 --> 00:53:41,090 so he's going to have a really strong range. 1309 00:53:41,090 --> 00:53:43,580 You're going to lose the pot 7/8 of the time, 1310 00:53:43,580 --> 00:53:45,374 essentially, roughly speaking. 1311 00:53:45,374 --> 00:53:46,790 So what this is essentially saying 1312 00:53:46,790 --> 00:53:50,660 is if I'm only winning the pot 1/8 of the time, 1313 00:53:50,660 --> 00:53:54,380 I need to win on average 8 times as much as I lose for it 1314 00:53:54,380 --> 00:53:55,700 to be worth it, right? 1315 00:53:55,700 --> 00:53:58,200 But the point is, at least back in the day in poker, 1316 00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:01,040 you essentially do, because when you do hit the deuce, 1317 00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:04,220 they just-- they're going to have pocket aces or pocket 1318 00:54:04,220 --> 00:54:06,960 kings or, you know, the flop will come ace-6-2 1319 00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:08,231 and they'll have ace-king. 1320 00:54:08,231 --> 00:54:09,980 They'll just have a tremendously good hand 1321 00:54:09,980 --> 00:54:11,450 that's still crushed by your hand 1322 00:54:11,450 --> 00:54:16,250 so often that you definitely, essentially, 1/8 of the time, 1323 00:54:16,250 --> 00:54:18,710 you lose 2,400 chips, and-- 1324 00:54:18,710 --> 00:54:21,830 I'm sorry, 7/8 of the time, you lose 2,400 chips, 1325 00:54:21,830 --> 00:54:23,950 and 1/8 of the time, you win their whole stack 1326 00:54:23,950 --> 00:54:25,280 of 80,000 chips. 1327 00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:29,450 Essentially, it's what the best situation is. 1328 00:54:29,450 --> 00:54:34,970 So, yeah, so you need a lot of chips for this 1329 00:54:34,970 --> 00:54:36,157 to be a good play. 1330 00:54:36,157 --> 00:54:38,240 You know, even if you have 40 big blinds which is, 1331 00:54:38,240 --> 00:54:41,900 by our standards, fairly deep, it's still not that good 1332 00:54:41,900 --> 00:54:44,190 because, once again, you only win 1/8 of the time. 1333 00:54:44,190 --> 00:54:47,570 So, you really need to win a lot when you win. 1334 00:54:47,570 --> 00:54:51,064 And like when you hit a 2, it's not 100% sure 1335 00:54:51,064 --> 00:54:52,730 that he's going to put in all his money. 1336 00:54:52,730 --> 00:54:55,550 So the fact-- so basically, you're 1337 00:54:55,550 --> 00:54:57,490 only winning a huge pot even less than 1/8. 1338 00:54:57,490 --> 00:54:59,490 Like you need to hit a 2, and you need to have-- 1339 00:54:59,490 --> 00:55:00,770 you have aces or kings. 1340 00:55:00,770 --> 00:55:04,295 So you know, that's going to be like 1/20 or whatever. 1341 00:55:04,295 --> 00:55:09,920 But the point is if the stack is so deep, 1342 00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,474 then it's still worth it, essentially. 1343 00:55:12,474 --> 00:55:14,390 And the reason why it's sort of dying in poker 1344 00:55:14,390 --> 00:55:17,000 is because I think nowadays, players 1345 00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:19,820 are good enough where even if they have aces under the gun, 1346 00:55:19,820 --> 00:55:22,200 they realize the optimal strategy isn't 1347 00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:26,147 to always put all your money in on a 7-5-2 flop. 1348 00:55:26,147 --> 00:55:28,480 But yeah, long story short, I think this is a fine play. 1349 00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:30,688 I think it's fine if you do it in the current league. 1350 00:55:30,688 --> 00:55:34,190 Because it's tough to fold aces on a 7-5-deuce flop. 1351 00:55:34,190 --> 00:55:38,420 And yeah, I think it's a good play to know about at least. 1352 00:55:38,420 --> 00:55:40,900 So, here is another hand. 1353 00:55:40,900 --> 00:55:42,980 So, cut-off raises to 2,000. 1354 00:55:42,980 --> 00:55:45,060 We have jack-10 suited on the button. 1355 00:55:45,060 --> 00:55:48,200 So once again, we don't have direct odds to call. 1356 00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:50,930 But we have good implied odds because we're in position 1357 00:55:50,930 --> 00:55:54,006 and we've got a suited connected hand. 1358 00:55:54,006 --> 00:55:55,880 OK, so I'm going to go through the whole hand 1359 00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:58,680 because there's going to be more examples of implied odds here. 1360 00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:03,020 So both blinds fold, and the preflop aggressor, 1361 00:56:03,020 --> 00:56:06,590 the cut-off continuation-- that's about a bit less 1362 00:56:06,590 --> 00:56:08,300 than half of pot. 1363 00:56:08,300 --> 00:56:10,980 And we have a flush draw here. 1364 00:56:10,980 --> 00:56:13,070 So, what is the effective stack size? 1365 00:56:13,070 --> 00:56:16,060 Even though we started the hand with 80,000, 1366 00:56:16,060 --> 00:56:18,770 they only have-- they only started the hand with 30,000. 1367 00:56:18,770 --> 00:56:21,740 So the effective stack size is only 30,000. 1368 00:56:21,740 --> 00:56:23,390 So we're definitely not folding. 1369 00:56:23,390 --> 00:56:25,520 We could call or we could raise. 1370 00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:29,030 The problem with raising is when we raise and they go all in, 1371 00:56:29,030 --> 00:56:31,760 we're sort in a really crappy situation where 1372 00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:35,090 our hand's too good to really want to fold, 1373 00:56:35,090 --> 00:56:37,880 but too weak to have the odds to call his all-in. 1374 00:56:40,750 --> 00:56:44,230 So I think just calling is the right play. 1375 00:56:44,230 --> 00:56:47,470 And yeah, and raising gives him the opportunity to re-raise on. 1376 00:56:47,470 --> 00:56:50,022 If we call, he can't say, oh, because right now, I'm 1377 00:56:50,022 --> 00:56:51,230 putting in more chips, right? 1378 00:56:51,230 --> 00:56:54,520 So, OK, so we miss on the turn, which kind of sucks. 1379 00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:55,530 And they bet fairly big. 1380 00:56:55,530 --> 00:56:59,170 They bet 8,000 into 12,000. 1381 00:56:59,170 --> 00:57:02,470 So let's do an analysis. 1382 00:57:02,470 --> 00:57:05,930 So, OK, so if I'm simplifying an assumption, 1383 00:57:05,930 --> 00:57:07,660 let's assume they have it, OK? 1384 00:57:07,660 --> 00:57:10,330 Let's assume we modeled them most fairly tight. 1385 00:57:10,330 --> 00:57:12,790 When they're making this bet, they've got us beat. 1386 00:57:12,790 --> 00:57:15,910 We're not going to win the hand by rivering a jack or a 10. 1387 00:57:15,910 --> 00:57:18,650 We need to river a diamond. 1388 00:57:18,650 --> 00:57:21,550 So essentially, let's assume they just have ace-king, 1389 00:57:21,550 --> 00:57:24,280 or they're going to have a pair of aces, at least. 1390 00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:26,950 So we need to call 8,000 to win 20,000 in the pot, 1391 00:57:26,950 --> 00:57:30,520 so we need 8 over 28, or 29% equity. 1392 00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:34,150 And if you count, there's 9 diamonds out of 46 cards, 1393 00:57:34,150 --> 00:57:39,830 so we only have 20% equity, and we need 29% equity. 1394 00:57:39,830 --> 00:57:41,410 But I would still call. 1395 00:57:41,410 --> 00:57:44,860 So, because when we call and we hit our flush, we can 1396 00:57:44,860 --> 00:57:47,380 actually-- we can bet on the river, 1397 00:57:47,380 --> 00:57:50,200 and there's a decent chance that we're going to get called. 1398 00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:52,600 Whereas if we call and we miss our flush, 1399 00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:54,765 we can just happily fold. 1400 00:57:54,765 --> 00:57:56,140 Does that make sense to everyone? 1401 00:57:56,140 --> 00:57:58,450 So we don't really have the odds to call here. 1402 00:57:58,450 --> 00:58:02,080 But we call because if we hit our diamond, 1403 00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:03,730 we can go all in on the river. 1404 00:58:03,730 --> 00:58:06,010 And there's a decent chance they're going to call us, 1405 00:58:06,010 --> 00:58:08,050 and we're going to win more money. 1406 00:58:08,050 --> 00:58:09,950 So we actually do have the odds, essentially. 1407 00:58:09,950 --> 00:58:11,210 We have the implied odds. 1408 00:58:13,750 --> 00:58:15,397 OK, so here's a similar scenario. 1409 00:58:15,397 --> 00:58:17,230 So pretend the same thing happened, but this 1410 00:58:17,230 --> 00:58:18,740 was the situation instead. 1411 00:58:18,740 --> 00:58:21,460 In this case, I think we should definitely fold. 1412 00:58:21,460 --> 00:58:23,560 So what changed was instead of having 1413 00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:26,266 two diamonds on the board and two diamonds in our hand, 1414 00:58:26,266 --> 00:58:27,890 now there's three diamonds on the board 1415 00:58:27,890 --> 00:58:29,720 and one diamond in our hand. 1416 00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:31,730 So it's worse for many, many reasons. 1417 00:58:31,730 --> 00:58:36,865 So one is when you only have one diamond in your hand 1418 00:58:36,865 --> 00:58:40,600 and there's three diamonds on the board, 1419 00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:42,080 if they have ace-king, it's going 1420 00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:44,416 to be more obvious that we probably have a flush 1421 00:58:44,416 --> 00:58:46,540 if we bet on the river and they have like ace-king. 1422 00:58:46,540 --> 00:58:48,581 So they're probably just going to fold this king. 1423 00:58:48,581 --> 00:58:51,670 So, we're not going to get paid off when we hit the diamond. 1424 00:58:51,670 --> 00:58:55,900 And even worse, we're not even drawing to the best hand. 1425 00:58:55,900 --> 00:58:58,550 Like, what if they have ace-king with the king of diamonds? 1426 00:58:58,550 --> 00:58:59,549 Then we're just crushed. 1427 00:58:59,549 --> 00:59:01,400 We're drawing dead in this situation. 1428 00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:03,010 There's no cards that can help us win. 1429 00:59:03,010 --> 00:59:06,650 So that's just such a huge risk. 1430 00:59:06,650 --> 00:59:10,780 So, yeah, and also, a small thing, but the board is paired. 1431 00:59:10,780 --> 00:59:14,290 So it's possible they have like pocket aces, or ace-5. 1432 00:59:14,290 --> 00:59:15,640 They already have a full house. 1433 00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:20,094 And even if we hit the best flush, we're not going to win. 1434 00:59:20,094 --> 00:59:23,950 OK, so-- OK, so, that was a good example, I think, 1435 00:59:23,950 --> 00:59:26,170 of when you have the implied odds 1436 00:59:26,170 --> 00:59:28,030 to call with your draw to try to hit. 1437 00:59:28,030 --> 00:59:30,220 When you don't have the implied odds to try to hit. 1438 00:59:30,220 --> 00:59:32,510 But we can also bluff with draws. 1439 00:59:32,510 --> 00:59:34,090 So in all the examples I gave you 1440 00:59:34,090 --> 00:59:36,040 before where you check-raised the flop, 1441 00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:37,480 we had a good hand, right? 1442 00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:39,010 But obviously, this is predictable. 1443 00:59:39,010 --> 00:59:41,050 If they know that we only check-raise their flop 1444 00:59:41,050 --> 00:59:42,760 that with two-pair or better, they 1445 00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:45,690 can just fold whenever they have one-pair or worse, right? 1446 00:59:45,690 --> 00:59:49,660 So draws, not only are they good for implied odds purposes where 1447 00:59:49,660 --> 00:59:52,530 you call and then only put in more money when you hit, 1448 00:59:52,530 --> 00:59:55,570 they're also very good for bluffing in certain situations. 1449 00:59:58,460 --> 01:00:00,700 So essentially, what you'll realize 1450 01:00:00,700 --> 01:00:03,696 is bluffing sort of equivalent to having a draw, 1451 01:00:03,696 --> 01:00:04,522 in some sense. 1452 01:00:04,522 --> 01:00:05,980 Because the hands you want to bluff 1453 01:00:05,980 --> 01:00:11,060 with are the hands that have some draw value. 1454 01:00:11,060 --> 01:00:13,360 So, here's an example. 1455 01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:16,420 The button raises to 1,600. 1456 01:00:16,420 --> 01:00:18,760 So we're 20 big blinds deep. 1457 01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:20,350 And one of the big blind with 10-9, 1458 01:00:20,350 --> 01:00:24,300 and we call with our 4.5 to 1 odds. 1459 01:00:24,300 --> 01:00:27,100 OK, and the flop is jack-10-5. 1460 01:00:27,100 --> 01:00:29,710 So we've got what I would consider a good draw. 1461 01:00:29,710 --> 01:00:32,290 So a good draw, I would say, usually means 1462 01:00:32,290 --> 01:00:34,460 either an open-ended straight draw. 1463 01:00:34,460 --> 01:00:35,885 So four-in-a-row do a straight. 1464 01:00:35,885 --> 01:00:38,560 So there's eight potential cards that complete your straight, 1465 01:00:38,560 --> 01:00:42,100 or a flush draw, which it usually has 9 outs. 1466 01:00:42,100 --> 01:00:44,920 OK, and then they bet 2,500. 1467 01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:48,040 And then we go all in in this situation. 1468 01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:49,210 Essentially, we're bluffing. 1469 01:00:49,210 --> 01:00:50,790 We're hoping they fold. 1470 01:00:50,790 --> 01:00:52,870 But why is this a good play? 1471 01:00:52,870 --> 01:00:55,510 So, you know, it seems pretty sane to just 1472 01:00:55,510 --> 01:00:56,405 call instead, right? 1473 01:00:56,405 --> 01:00:58,571 Because we can call, we can have perfect information 1474 01:00:58,571 --> 01:01:00,590 of when we hit, when we don't, and only risk 1475 01:01:00,590 --> 01:01:01,960 more money if we do. 1476 01:01:01,960 --> 01:01:06,427 But it's actually also quite a good play to go all in because 1477 01:01:06,427 --> 01:01:08,260 even though it looks like we have a bad hand 1478 01:01:08,260 --> 01:01:11,620 to be risking all our chips because we only have 10-high. 1479 01:01:11,620 --> 01:01:13,130 The point is the fact that we have 1480 01:01:13,130 --> 01:01:15,730 10-high doesn't matter because they're never 1481 01:01:15,730 --> 01:01:19,210 calling our all-in with a naked queen-high or king-high, right? 1482 01:01:19,210 --> 01:01:21,910 They're not to call with a random hand. 1483 01:01:21,910 --> 01:01:26,440 So what matters isn't how good our hand is, in this case, 1484 01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:26,960 10-high. 1485 01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:29,680 What matters is how many outs we have against the hands 1486 01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:31,900 that they called. 1487 01:01:31,900 --> 01:01:34,990 So in this case, we're always going to have 8 outs. 1488 01:01:34,990 --> 01:01:36,800 Even if they have the best possible hand, 1489 01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:39,620 like pocket jacks, we're still going to have 8 outs. 1490 01:01:39,620 --> 01:01:43,270 So, this is a great hand to bluff with because if we call, 1491 01:01:43,270 --> 01:01:47,110 we might just lose the pot to queen-high by the river. 1492 01:01:47,110 --> 01:01:49,709 Whereas if we check-raise all in, 1493 01:01:49,709 --> 01:01:51,250 it's essentially the opposite of what 1494 01:01:51,250 --> 01:01:54,310 I was talking about before with like being averagely selected. 1495 01:01:54,310 --> 01:01:57,000 Here, it's just essentially being beneficially selected 1496 01:01:57,000 --> 01:01:59,135 because all the hands that barely beat you, 1497 01:01:59,135 --> 01:02:00,190 he's going to fold. 1498 01:02:00,190 --> 01:02:03,250 And if they have a hand as good as j-- ugh. 1499 01:02:03,250 --> 01:02:05,470 When they have a hand as good as jack-jack, 1500 01:02:05,470 --> 01:02:10,000 it's almost, like, wasted, you know? 1501 01:02:10,000 --> 01:02:12,845 They haven't-- they got their jack-jack with-- 1502 01:02:12,845 --> 01:02:14,970 if they had jack-jack, they're hoping we have like, 1503 01:02:14,970 --> 01:02:17,432 pocket 8's that only has one out against them. 1504 01:02:17,432 --> 01:02:18,890 But here, we have a much worse hand 1505 01:02:18,890 --> 01:02:22,026 than pocket 8's with 8 outs against them. 1506 01:02:22,026 --> 01:02:23,650 You can contrast this with having, say, 1507 01:02:23,650 --> 01:02:25,200 like 6-5 on this flop. 1508 01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:27,730 6-5 is a really bad hand to raise with. 1509 01:02:27,730 --> 01:02:30,040 You just want to be calling because it's 1510 01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:31,450 sort of the opposite. 1511 01:02:31,450 --> 01:02:33,790 Any hand that beats you is going to be crushing you, 1512 01:02:33,790 --> 01:02:35,581 and you're going to fold out the hands that 1513 01:02:35,581 --> 01:02:38,770 are already using to your 6-5. 1514 01:02:38,770 --> 01:02:43,000 But yeah, so 6-5, if you're against like ace-jack, 1515 01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:44,710 you only have five outs. 1516 01:02:44,710 --> 01:02:48,880 And you have close to 0% equity against flopping jacks. 1517 01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:50,290 So, right, so this is essentially 1518 01:02:50,290 --> 01:02:51,330 the bluffing epiphany. 1519 01:02:51,330 --> 01:02:52,810 So when you're bluffing, the-- when 1520 01:02:52,810 --> 01:02:54,601 you're bluffing before the river, the thing 1521 01:02:54,601 --> 01:02:58,150 that matters isn't how good our hand is, it's how many 1522 01:02:58,150 --> 01:02:59,960 outs we have. 1523 01:02:59,960 --> 01:03:03,910 OK, so-- right, OK, so this is essentially 1524 01:03:03,910 --> 01:03:06,610 just me talking about the bluffing epiphany. 1525 01:03:06,610 --> 01:03:08,590 So you want to always bluff with hands 1526 01:03:08,590 --> 01:03:10,850 that have a high number of outs against the hands 1527 01:03:10,850 --> 01:03:12,980 that you get called by. 1528 01:03:12,980 --> 01:03:15,130 So, here's an example of something 1529 01:03:15,130 --> 01:03:17,830 that's not bluffing, OK? 1530 01:03:17,830 --> 01:03:23,320 So the cut-off raises to 90 and we call with 7-6 of diamonds 1531 01:03:23,320 --> 01:03:24,067 on the big blind. 1532 01:03:24,067 --> 01:03:25,150 And this happens randomly. 1533 01:03:25,150 --> 01:03:27,580 You know, sometimes you'll see someone make a play like, 1534 01:03:27,580 --> 01:03:28,540 what if ends-- 1535 01:03:28,540 --> 01:03:30,040 You're going to-- so someone will make a play like this. 1536 01:03:30,040 --> 01:03:30,998 And it's going to work. 1537 01:03:30,998 --> 01:03:32,830 And they're going to look like a genius. 1538 01:03:32,830 --> 01:03:35,510 So, we check to the preflop raiser. 1539 01:03:35,510 --> 01:03:38,820 We've got nothing, but we have a read that they, like, scratch 1540 01:03:38,820 --> 01:03:40,600 their ear or something. 1541 01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:45,040 So, we check-raise hoping that they fold. 1542 01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:47,040 So we get called. 1543 01:03:47,040 --> 01:03:49,360 And, you know, we still got absolutely nothing here. 1544 01:03:49,360 --> 01:03:51,520 And we bet on the turn because that's 1545 01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:53,890 the only way we could potentially win the hand. 1546 01:03:53,890 --> 01:03:56,119 And they call. 1547 01:03:56,119 --> 01:03:57,410 And then we still have nothing. 1548 01:03:57,410 --> 01:03:59,680 And then as a last resort, we go all in on the river. 1549 01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:01,494 And, you know, a good percent of the time, 1550 01:04:01,494 --> 01:04:02,410 they're going to fold. 1551 01:04:02,410 --> 01:04:05,290 And we're going to look like a genius for making this bluff, 1552 01:04:05,290 --> 01:04:05,860 right? 1553 01:04:05,860 --> 01:04:09,130 So basically this is not-- so yeah, this is not bluffing. 1554 01:04:09,130 --> 01:04:10,930 This is essentially opening your wallet 1555 01:04:10,930 --> 01:04:12,690 and giving your money to your opponent. 1556 01:04:12,690 --> 01:04:19,030 So when you're check-raising, you're 1557 01:04:19,030 --> 01:04:21,100 essentially-- the reason why you were 1558 01:04:21,100 --> 01:04:23,110 check-raising in the first place as a bluff is 1559 01:04:23,110 --> 01:04:25,930 because you had some chance of making a good hand. 1560 01:04:25,930 --> 01:04:28,795 And essentially, a bluff is because your-- 1561 01:04:28,795 --> 01:04:30,827 the hand that you could have potentially made, 1562 01:04:30,827 --> 01:04:32,785 the flush that you potentially could have made, 1563 01:04:32,785 --> 01:04:33,880 didn't get there. 1564 01:04:33,880 --> 01:04:36,790 It's not because you started with a hand that could never 1565 01:04:36,790 --> 01:04:39,262 make anything on this board and it didn't get there. 1566 01:04:39,262 --> 01:04:44,650 So, OK, so here's a similar situation 1567 01:04:44,650 --> 01:04:46,841 where I think it makes a lot more sense. 1568 01:04:46,841 --> 01:04:48,340 So it's going to be a similar board, 1569 01:04:48,340 --> 01:04:50,110 but we have 10-9 of hearts. 1570 01:04:50,110 --> 01:04:55,180 And here, we check-raise their flop bet. 1571 01:04:55,180 --> 01:04:56,950 So this situation's a bit different 1572 01:04:56,950 --> 01:05:00,330 than the jack-10 diamond situation from a while ago, 1573 01:05:00,330 --> 01:05:02,500 where we only called with a flush draw. 1574 01:05:02,500 --> 01:05:05,380 The reason why raising here is better 1575 01:05:05,380 --> 01:05:07,720 is because the stack sizes is deeper. 1576 01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:10,930 So with the jack-10 of diamonds hand, 1577 01:05:10,930 --> 01:05:12,730 the problem with check-raising was there's 1578 01:05:12,730 --> 01:05:14,470 a risk they would go all in. 1579 01:05:14,470 --> 01:05:17,140 And we would fold because we don't have good enough odds, 1580 01:05:17,140 --> 01:05:18,820 yet our hand is so good. 1581 01:05:18,820 --> 01:05:22,990 Here, our hand is similarly good, but because it's so deep. 1582 01:05:22,990 --> 01:05:26,410 So, we actually started the hand with, I think, 1583 01:05:26,410 --> 01:05:29,730 100 big blinds instead of 40 big blinds. 1584 01:05:29,730 --> 01:05:31,780 They're pretty unlikely to go all in. 1585 01:05:31,780 --> 01:05:35,030 So here, check-raising 10-9 of hearts 1586 01:05:35,030 --> 01:05:39,400 has a lot lower chance of getting blown off the hand. 1587 01:05:39,400 --> 01:05:41,260 OK, and we get a called. 1588 01:05:41,260 --> 01:05:44,560 And we turn a 15-out draw. 1589 01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:47,380 So we had 9 outs here, right? 1590 01:05:47,380 --> 01:05:49,830 But the jack now essentially gives us 1591 01:05:49,830 --> 01:05:54,970 15 outs because it gives us the 8 open-ended straight outs, 1592 01:05:54,970 --> 01:05:59,350 plus the 9 flush outs, minus the 2 from double counting-- so 1593 01:05:59,350 --> 01:06:00,460 15 outs. 1594 01:06:00,460 --> 01:06:01,730 And we bet 650 here. 1595 01:06:01,730 --> 01:06:03,940 So it's the same hand as a 7-6 suited. 1596 01:06:03,940 --> 01:06:07,260 It's the same hand as the stupid play. 1597 01:06:07,260 --> 01:06:08,560 We're betting here. 1598 01:06:08,560 --> 01:06:10,750 And we get called. 1599 01:06:10,750 --> 01:06:12,190 So, some notes. 1600 01:06:12,190 --> 01:06:13,930 Here, our hand was good enough where 1601 01:06:13,930 --> 01:06:19,570 even though when bet 650 into the pot on this turn, 1602 01:06:19,570 --> 01:06:20,662 they could go all in. 1603 01:06:20,662 --> 01:06:22,120 If they have like ace-jack, they're 1604 01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:23,560 probably going to go all in. 1605 01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:25,300 And you know it's going to suck. 1606 01:06:25,300 --> 01:06:30,490 But we have good enough odds in this case, 1607 01:06:30,490 --> 01:06:33,690 because we have so many outs, that we can even 1608 01:06:33,690 --> 01:06:34,600 call an all-in. 1609 01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:35,830 So it's fine. 1610 01:06:35,830 --> 01:06:38,980 We can just call. 1611 01:06:38,980 --> 01:06:42,790 And yeah, so, note that by check-raising the flop, 1612 01:06:42,790 --> 01:06:43,930 betting turn-- 1613 01:06:43,930 --> 01:06:45,790 so the good thing about playing draws 1614 01:06:45,790 --> 01:06:48,580 like this is that now, if we play draws like this, 1615 01:06:48,580 --> 01:06:52,240 we can also play our good hands, like ace-8 or pocket deuces 1616 01:06:52,240 --> 01:06:55,336 like this, and get paid off a lot more. 1617 01:06:55,336 --> 01:06:56,530 So, OK, so we get called. 1618 01:06:56,530 --> 01:06:58,300 And then the river is a king. 1619 01:06:58,300 --> 01:07:02,710 It's not the scariest card, but we can have queen-10 of hearts. 1620 01:07:02,710 --> 01:07:04,690 We could easily get a queen-10 of hearts. 1621 01:07:04,690 --> 01:07:06,390 So we go all in here. 1622 01:07:06,390 --> 01:07:09,385 And even if the king wasn't scary at all, 1623 01:07:09,385 --> 01:07:11,570 like even if the king was like a 3 or a deuce, 1624 01:07:11,570 --> 01:07:15,550 I'm fine with just going all in because that's the only way 1625 01:07:15,550 --> 01:07:16,660 we can win the hand. 1626 01:07:16,660 --> 01:07:19,414 But it's a fine excuse here to go all in with 10-high 1627 01:07:19,414 --> 01:07:21,580 on the river, and say that's the only way I could've 1628 01:07:21,580 --> 01:07:24,760 won the hand because there was a reason I was check-raising 1629 01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:27,065 and representing all the strength on the flop at turn, 1630 01:07:27,065 --> 01:07:27,565 right? 1631 01:07:27,565 --> 01:07:29,080 It's because I had a heart draw. 1632 01:07:29,080 --> 01:07:31,734 My heart draw didn't get there, so now, I 1633 01:07:31,734 --> 01:07:34,150 need to desperately, to have a chance of winning the hand, 1634 01:07:34,150 --> 01:07:35,020 go all in. 1635 01:07:35,020 --> 01:07:37,270 But it's reasonable. 1636 01:07:37,270 --> 01:07:40,060 The reason why I got to this situation, this bad situation, 1637 01:07:40,060 --> 01:07:42,191 is because essentially I got unlucky, right? 1638 01:07:42,191 --> 01:07:44,190 I had a chance of hitting a flush, and I didn't. 1639 01:07:44,190 --> 01:07:47,394 It's not like the 7-6 case where I 1640 01:07:47,394 --> 01:07:49,810 knew I was going to get it in this situation, which is not 1641 01:07:49,810 --> 01:07:51,010 a good situation. 1642 01:07:51,010 --> 01:07:56,350 But here, I got a bit unlucky to get in this situation. 1643 01:07:56,350 --> 01:08:01,010 OK, so-- all right, so I think this is the last example. 1644 01:08:01,010 --> 01:08:04,400 So, last example of when you give up on a bluff. 1645 01:08:04,400 --> 01:08:05,930 So sometimes, you're bluffing. 1646 01:08:05,930 --> 01:08:07,190 You don't have a great hand. 1647 01:08:07,190 --> 01:08:10,700 But sometimes, you just give up because you figured out 1648 01:08:10,700 --> 01:08:13,190 your opponent's not folding, or the board 1649 01:08:13,190 --> 01:08:16,310 comes out in a way where it's not theoretically 1650 01:08:16,310 --> 01:08:18,859 a good idea for you planning to fold. 1651 01:08:18,859 --> 01:08:21,100 So hijack minus 1 makes it 90. 1652 01:08:21,100 --> 01:08:22,340 Cut-off calls. 1653 01:08:22,340 --> 01:08:23,689 And we're 100 bets deep. 1654 01:08:23,689 --> 01:08:28,189 We call with jack-9 of hearts from the big blind. 1655 01:08:28,189 --> 01:08:32,630 OK, so the flop is a 10-7-deuce. 1656 01:08:32,630 --> 01:08:33,979 And so we have a-- 1657 01:08:33,979 --> 01:08:34,939 we get a decent flop. 1658 01:08:34,939 --> 01:08:37,609 So once again, you know, we have a reasonable draw here. 1659 01:08:37,609 --> 01:08:39,229 We have some reason to be bluffing. 1660 01:08:39,229 --> 01:08:40,399 We don't have nothing. 1661 01:08:40,399 --> 01:08:43,700 We have some reason to be bluffing because even though-- 1662 01:08:43,700 --> 01:08:45,970 essentially, we're hoping to turn 8, even 1663 01:08:45,970 --> 01:08:49,759 though the chances that is only 4 out of 47, which is low. 1664 01:08:52,289 --> 01:08:53,330 But it's still something. 1665 01:08:53,330 --> 01:08:55,010 And it's much better to bluff with a 4 1666 01:08:55,010 --> 01:08:58,689 out of 47 chance of making a monster hand than a 0 1667 01:08:58,689 --> 01:09:00,170 out of 47 chance. 1668 01:09:00,170 --> 01:09:04,290 So, OK, so here, this was interesting. 1669 01:09:04,290 --> 01:09:06,337 The preflop aggressor checked, which is fine. 1670 01:09:06,337 --> 01:09:08,920 As the preflop aggressor, you're not forced to grant the flop. 1671 01:09:08,920 --> 01:09:13,130 So, but this-- but note that the preflop aggressor is not 1672 01:09:13,130 --> 01:09:14,210 the guy who got the flop. 1673 01:09:14,210 --> 01:09:16,580 So the cut-off bets the flop, but the cut-off 1674 01:09:16,580 --> 01:09:18,330 was not the preflop aggressor. 1675 01:09:18,330 --> 01:09:20,830 OK, so the cut-off shouldn't have pocket aces. 1676 01:09:20,830 --> 01:09:23,899 They could occasionally, but it's less likely than usual 1677 01:09:23,899 --> 01:09:26,750 that they have pocket aces. 1678 01:09:26,750 --> 01:09:29,390 So they bet, and we decide to check-raise here. 1679 01:09:29,390 --> 01:09:31,609 And yeah, I think this is a very reasonable play. 1680 01:09:31,609 --> 01:09:32,870 So what are the reasons? 1681 01:09:32,870 --> 01:09:34,520 One-- so yeah, we have something. 1682 01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:37,880 We can try to turn an 8. 1683 01:09:37,880 --> 01:09:40,439 And also, turning a jack is fine. 1684 01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:41,779 We also turn a heart. 1685 01:09:41,779 --> 01:09:45,587 And so we had lots of backdoor draws. 1686 01:09:45,587 --> 01:09:46,420 We can turn a heart. 1687 01:09:46,420 --> 01:09:47,840 That will give us four hearts. 1688 01:09:47,840 --> 01:09:50,340 And we could turn even like a queen will give us 1689 01:09:50,340 --> 01:09:52,460 an open-ended straight draw. 1690 01:09:52,460 --> 01:09:55,010 A king will also give us an open-ended straight draw. 1691 01:09:55,010 --> 01:09:56,610 So that's the weird case where-- 1692 01:09:56,610 --> 01:10:00,890 so if the turn is a king, then the board will be king-10-7. 1693 01:10:00,890 --> 01:10:02,420 And we'll have the jack-9. 1694 01:10:02,420 --> 01:10:05,570 And then an 8 or a queen will give us a straight. 1695 01:10:05,570 --> 01:10:06,860 It's one of the rare cases. 1696 01:10:06,860 --> 01:10:10,370 It's called-- it's called a double gutshot, 1697 01:10:10,370 --> 01:10:11,217 or a double gutter. 1698 01:10:11,217 --> 01:10:13,550 So it's one of the weird-- it's one of the strange cases 1699 01:10:13,550 --> 01:10:14,258 to watch out for. 1700 01:10:14,258 --> 01:10:17,154 It's possible that you have an 8-out straight draw, 1701 01:10:17,154 --> 01:10:19,070 even though you don't have four to a straight. 1702 01:10:19,070 --> 01:10:22,139 So one example is where you have like-- 1703 01:10:22,139 --> 01:10:24,680 it's like this one, where you have a king and then jack-10-9, 1704 01:10:24,680 --> 01:10:25,970 and then 7. 1705 01:10:25,970 --> 01:10:28,790 And another example is where, let's say you have like, 1706 01:10:28,790 --> 01:10:32,640 king-jack on an ace-10-7-6 board. 1707 01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:35,090 Then essentially the board-- 1708 01:10:35,090 --> 01:10:38,395 essentially, it's ace-king-blank, jack-10-blank, 1709 01:10:38,395 --> 01:10:39,470 8-7. 1710 01:10:39,470 --> 01:10:41,640 So then you have it hit a 9 or a queen. 1711 01:10:41,640 --> 01:10:45,020 So there's a couple of weird straight draws you can have. 1712 01:10:45,020 --> 01:10:46,900 But anyways, the point is-- 1713 01:10:46,900 --> 01:10:49,190 so yeah, I think this is a good play, not only 1714 01:10:49,190 --> 01:10:52,100 because we have a crappy hand that's basically-- 1715 01:10:52,100 --> 01:10:55,560 so basically, a crappy draw is a really good hand to bluff with, 1716 01:10:55,560 --> 01:10:59,071 but also the fact that their range isn't particularly 1717 01:10:59,071 --> 01:10:59,570 strong here. 1718 01:10:59,570 --> 01:11:01,310 Because they can't really have aces. 1719 01:11:01,310 --> 01:11:05,480 So, I mean, they can have pocket 7's or pocket deuces, I guess, 1720 01:11:05,480 --> 01:11:09,310 but also we're attacking the fact that he's not the preflop 1721 01:11:09,310 --> 01:11:09,810 raiser. 1722 01:11:09,810 --> 01:11:12,260 So their range isn't that strong. 1723 01:11:12,260 --> 01:11:17,000 OK, so, so, hijack minus 1, the preflop aggressor, 1724 01:11:17,000 --> 01:11:17,870 gets out of the way. 1725 01:11:17,870 --> 01:11:20,420 And then cut-off calls us. 1726 01:11:20,420 --> 01:11:24,350 And then the turn is a 7, which is basically the worst 1727 01:11:24,350 --> 01:11:25,470 card in the deck for us. 1728 01:11:25,470 --> 01:11:27,260 I'd say the 7 of clubs. 1729 01:11:27,260 --> 01:11:29,305 Even if it was like the 7 of spades, 1730 01:11:29,305 --> 01:11:32,720 it would've been better. 1731 01:11:32,720 --> 01:11:34,237 So, why is this the worst card? 1732 01:11:34,237 --> 01:11:36,320 So first of all, it doesn't help us at all, right? 1733 01:11:36,320 --> 01:11:38,445 It doesn't give us any kind of better straight draw 1734 01:11:38,445 --> 01:11:40,430 or better flush draw or a pair. 1735 01:11:40,430 --> 01:11:43,790 And furthermore, it's fairly safe. 1736 01:11:43,790 --> 01:11:45,732 You know, even if the turn was an ace, 1737 01:11:45,732 --> 01:11:47,440 we could at least pretend we have an ace. 1738 01:11:47,440 --> 01:11:49,585 The 7 is a fairly safe card. 1739 01:11:49,585 --> 01:11:50,960 If they have a pair 10's, they're 1740 01:11:50,960 --> 01:11:54,620 not jeopardized because of ace-king. 1741 01:11:54,620 --> 01:11:57,200 Furthermore, the main issue is his range 1742 01:11:57,200 --> 01:12:00,740 is going to be a lot more likely to contain a 7 than our range. 1743 01:12:00,740 --> 01:12:02,510 Because, remember what I said earlier, 1744 01:12:02,510 --> 01:12:04,190 you don't really want to be raising-- 1745 01:12:04,190 --> 01:12:07,359 check-raising the flop with your middle-of-the-road hands. 1746 01:12:07,359 --> 01:12:09,900 Because your middle-of-the-road hands, you want to just call. 1747 01:12:09,900 --> 01:12:12,080 Because when you raise, you're getting called by worse-- 1748 01:12:12,080 --> 01:12:13,663 sorry, you're getting called by better 1749 01:12:13,663 --> 01:12:15,050 and you're folding out worse. 1750 01:12:15,050 --> 01:12:17,820 So, probably if I had a 7 on the flop here, 1751 01:12:17,820 --> 01:12:19,160 I'm never check-raising. 1752 01:12:19,160 --> 01:12:21,590 So basically, I can't have a 7 here. 1753 01:12:21,590 --> 01:12:25,170 And furthermore, they're a lot more likely to have a 7. 1754 01:12:25,170 --> 01:12:26,600 So this just really hurts us. 1755 01:12:26,600 --> 01:12:28,640 Essentially, it's just a bad situation 1756 01:12:28,640 --> 01:12:32,540 where their range is a lot stronger than our range. 1757 01:12:32,540 --> 01:12:36,380 And basically the best thing we can do is just fold our hand. 1758 01:12:36,380 --> 01:12:37,880 There's no point-- you know, there's 1759 01:12:37,880 --> 01:12:39,787 no point to try to continue bluffing. 1760 01:12:39,787 --> 01:12:41,870 Like, it's sort of like playing the "who's taller" 1761 01:12:41,870 --> 01:12:44,720 game where you don't get to see my height, 1762 01:12:44,720 --> 01:12:47,360 but you know that I was like malnourished as a kid. 1763 01:12:47,360 --> 01:12:49,246 Like you just know, on average, there's 1764 01:12:49,246 --> 01:12:50,870 no way I'm going to be taller than you. 1765 01:12:50,870 --> 01:12:55,372 So the right thing to do here is just stop our bluff. 1766 01:12:55,372 --> 01:12:57,080 And it was like the worst card that came, 1767 01:12:57,080 --> 01:13:00,950 but we just give up the hand, which is fine. 1768 01:13:00,950 --> 01:13:02,950 And then they take down the pot. 1769 01:13:02,950 --> 01:13:05,940 Right, so, bluffing epiphany 2 is basically, 1770 01:13:05,940 --> 01:13:08,050 other than counting how many outs we have, 1771 01:13:08,050 --> 01:13:10,700 it's important to analyze what we're representing. 1772 01:13:10,700 --> 01:13:11,825 What else is in our range? 1773 01:13:11,825 --> 01:13:12,866 You know, we're bluffing. 1774 01:13:12,866 --> 01:13:14,140 We don't have a good hand. 1775 01:13:14,140 --> 01:13:16,970 But what's the good hand that we could potentially 1776 01:13:16,970 --> 01:13:19,430 have in some other parallel universes 1777 01:13:19,430 --> 01:13:21,430 that we're representing? 1778 01:13:21,430 --> 01:13:25,070 And in this case, there just really isn't anything. 1779 01:13:25,070 --> 01:13:27,080 So yeah, so like an ace-turn would've been fine. 1780 01:13:27,080 --> 01:13:28,700 Even a 6-turn would have been OK, 1781 01:13:28,700 --> 01:13:30,550 because we could have represented 9-8. 1782 01:13:30,550 --> 01:13:35,540 So, one of the best times to bluff is when your draw missed, 1783 01:13:35,540 --> 01:13:37,010 but a different draw completed. 1784 01:13:37,010 --> 01:13:38,240 So like if you had a straight draw 1785 01:13:38,240 --> 01:13:39,906 and you were bluffing the flop, and then 1786 01:13:39,906 --> 01:13:43,000 the turn completes the flush, it's reasonable to bet. 1787 01:13:43,000 --> 01:13:45,740 I mean, you do run into the risk that they have the flush, 1788 01:13:45,740 --> 01:13:48,470 but also it's just they're going to be more scared of the flush. 1789 01:13:48,470 --> 01:13:50,690 And similarly, yeah, like if you have 1790 01:13:50,690 --> 01:13:54,830 a flush draw and the straight completes, you can also bet. 1791 01:13:54,830 --> 01:13:57,400 OK, so, yeah, so I'm running through a lot of poker concepts 1792 01:13:57,400 --> 01:13:57,900 today. 1793 01:13:57,900 --> 01:13:58,790 So that's the end. 1794 01:13:58,790 --> 01:14:00,050 I'll give a quick summary. 1795 01:14:00,050 --> 01:14:03,260 So hopefully, this will give people more ideas 1796 01:14:03,260 --> 01:14:05,720 on how to play online. 1797 01:14:05,720 --> 01:14:08,300 I know I sort of left you guys in the dark last time. 1798 01:14:08,300 --> 01:14:10,640 I mean, I ran through things pretty quickly this 1799 01:14:10,640 --> 01:14:13,137 [AUDIO OUT],, but hopefully, as you play more, 1800 01:14:13,137 --> 01:14:15,470 it's OK if you didn't understand everything immediately. 1801 01:14:15,470 --> 01:14:17,095 But hopefully, as you play more, you'll 1802 01:14:17,095 --> 01:14:19,490 be like, ah, implied odds, or you'll 1803 01:14:19,490 --> 01:14:21,740 be reminded of examples from this class. 1804 01:14:21,740 --> 01:14:24,140 So yeah, so we covered continuation betting, 1805 01:14:24,140 --> 01:14:27,440 the preflop aggressor getting the respect, being able to bet, 1806 01:14:27,440 --> 01:14:29,560 the Fundamental Theorem of Poker about how 1807 01:14:29,560 --> 01:14:32,600 you bet your good hands and bluff your bad hands. 1808 01:14:32,600 --> 01:14:34,160 We analyzed different flops, and I 1809 01:14:34,160 --> 01:14:38,060 tried to give you a general idea of what sorts of-- 1810 01:14:38,060 --> 01:14:42,700 how good your hand needs to be on certain kinds of flops. 1811 01:14:42,700 --> 01:14:45,380 And yeah, so when I showed you the different flops, 1812 01:14:45,380 --> 01:14:47,450 you know, what I told you-- 1813 01:14:47,450 --> 01:14:50,649 I didn't like mathematically prove that calling is good 1814 01:14:50,649 --> 01:14:51,440 or raising is good. 1815 01:14:51,440 --> 01:14:53,810 It's basically just like from experience 1816 01:14:53,810 --> 01:14:56,540 and from doing calculations, I know roughly your equity 1817 01:14:56,540 --> 01:14:57,170 is good enough. 1818 01:14:57,170 --> 01:14:59,240 But I didn't like, mathematically prove it. 1819 01:14:59,240 --> 01:15:01,940 So you essentially just have to trust me 1820 01:15:01,940 --> 01:15:05,180 in that sense for the example flops that I showed you, 1821 01:15:05,180 --> 01:15:06,922 because I didn't show any calculations. 1822 01:15:06,922 --> 01:15:08,380 Yeah, we talked about when to lead. 1823 01:15:08,380 --> 01:15:10,640 We talked about implied odds, reverse implied odds, 1824 01:15:10,640 --> 01:15:14,120 set mining, bluffing with draws, and then the two bluffing 1825 01:15:14,120 --> 01:15:16,010 epiphanies. 1826 01:15:16,010 --> 01:15:18,770 And yeah, so it's important to-- 1827 01:15:18,770 --> 01:15:21,720 so basically, it's much easier to play good hands 1828 01:15:21,720 --> 01:15:23,304 than bad hands in poker in some sense, 1829 01:15:23,304 --> 01:15:24,720 because when you have a good hand, 1830 01:15:24,720 --> 01:15:26,300 you just bet and hope everyone calls. 1831 01:15:26,300 --> 01:15:29,810 But it's important to know how to play bad hands, a.k.a bluff, 1832 01:15:29,810 --> 01:15:31,907 so that your opponent also might call you 1833 01:15:31,907 --> 01:15:32,990 when you have a good hand. 1834 01:15:32,990 --> 01:15:35,600 Because if you're the type of player who never bluffs, 1835 01:15:35,600 --> 01:15:37,590 then the game is uninteresting, right? 1836 01:15:37,590 --> 01:15:39,980 So, because then, your opponent just always 1837 01:15:39,980 --> 01:15:41,550 folds whenever you do anything. 1838 01:15:41,550 --> 01:15:44,040 So that's why it's important to think about the bluffing 1839 01:15:44,040 --> 01:15:45,740 epiphanies. 1840 01:15:45,740 --> 01:15:46,240 OK, cool. 1841 01:15:46,240 --> 01:15:47,000 Yeah, thanks. 1842 01:15:47,000 --> 01:15:49,868 And hope you continue to play online.