1 00:00:00,150 --> 00:00:02,550 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:02,550 --> 00:00:04,090 Commons license. 3 00:00:04,090 --> 00:00:06,390 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 4 00:00:06,390 --> 00:00:10,780 continue to offer high quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:10,780 --> 00:00:13,380 To make a donation or view additional materials 6 00:00:13,380 --> 00:00:17,340 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 7 00:00:17,340 --> 00:00:18,510 at ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:21,300 --> 00:00:22,840 WILL MA: So today I promised I would 9 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,390 play through the second half of the tournament 10 00:00:25,390 --> 00:00:27,670 that I started last time, so two times ago, 11 00:00:27,670 --> 00:00:31,320 but before Jennifer Shahade's guest lecture. 12 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,820 But before I start, so remember last time 13 00:00:33,820 --> 00:00:35,440 we got to the final table. 14 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:37,750 This is essentially the start of the final table. 15 00:00:37,750 --> 00:00:40,870 And but before I get into the hands, 16 00:00:40,870 --> 00:00:43,870 I want to do a bit of theory first that I've been 17 00:00:43,870 --> 00:00:45,910 forgoing so far in this class. 18 00:00:45,910 --> 00:00:49,510 And it's essentially what's called the independent chip 19 00:00:49,510 --> 00:00:51,460 mode, or ICM theory. 20 00:00:51,460 --> 00:00:56,010 And essentially what it's used for is in tournaments, 21 00:00:56,010 --> 00:01:00,460 essentially the value of chips is essentially nonlinear 22 00:01:00,460 --> 00:01:03,700 because you're not really trying to just get all the chips. 23 00:01:03,700 --> 00:01:05,470 You are trying to last as long as possible 24 00:01:05,470 --> 00:01:07,130 and move up the payouts. 25 00:01:07,130 --> 00:01:10,360 So I want to now formally quantify what this means 26 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:14,866 and how you calculate the EV of your game rules. 27 00:01:14,866 --> 00:01:17,170 So far I think I've just told you 28 00:01:17,170 --> 00:01:19,840 everything that's done so far in this class has been chip EV. 29 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,050 And I've told you just play to maximize chip EV. 30 00:01:23,050 --> 00:01:24,929 Maximize your expected number of chips. 31 00:01:24,929 --> 00:01:26,720 And that's a pretty reasonable way to play. 32 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,350 In cash games, it's what you want to do. 33 00:01:29,350 --> 00:01:32,450 And in tournaments it's not a bad approximation. 34 00:01:32,450 --> 00:01:35,150 So I don't want everyone after this ICM lecture 35 00:01:35,150 --> 00:01:37,192 to think, you know, I've got to completely change 36 00:01:37,192 --> 00:01:39,441 my playing in tournaments because that's not the case. 37 00:01:39,441 --> 00:01:40,900 Essentially, playing and maximizing 38 00:01:40,900 --> 00:01:43,960 expected number of chips is a pretty good approximation 39 00:01:43,960 --> 00:01:45,790 of how you actually should be playing. 40 00:01:45,790 --> 00:01:47,980 But there are some small differences 41 00:01:47,980 --> 00:01:49,900 in extreme situations, and I'd like 42 00:01:49,900 --> 00:01:51,680 to highlight some of that today. 43 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:53,800 So OK, yeah. 44 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,770 So this is essentially-- so it's this idea of minimizing risk 45 00:01:56,770 --> 00:02:00,640 to stay alive and move up to the escalating payouts. 46 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,980 So I want to make an important distinction, though. 47 00:02:02,980 --> 00:02:05,170 When I'm saying, we're still trying 48 00:02:05,170 --> 00:02:07,840 to maximize our expected amount of money. 49 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,780 What I'm saying, you should be minimizing your risk 50 00:02:10,780 --> 00:02:13,690 in a tournament so that you can move up the payouts. 51 00:02:13,690 --> 00:02:17,500 That's different than saying you should minimize 52 00:02:17,500 --> 00:02:20,020 your monetary risk because I'm still 53 00:02:20,020 --> 00:02:23,680 assuming we're trying to maximize our expected money 54 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:24,970 without worrying about risk. 55 00:02:24,970 --> 00:02:28,090 But we're only minimizing tournament risk 56 00:02:28,090 --> 00:02:30,520 to maximize your expected amount of money. 57 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,680 But I'm not saying we should be overly 58 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,080 conservative in a tournament and just 59 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,360 trying to move up the money ladder slowly 60 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:41,110 when you should be gambling because it's positive money 61 00:02:41,110 --> 00:02:42,250 expectation. 62 00:02:42,250 --> 00:02:43,930 If you find yourself in this situation, 63 00:02:43,930 --> 00:02:47,260 then if you're trying to play professionally and just 64 00:02:47,260 --> 00:02:49,840 maximize your expected amount of money in every situation, 65 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:51,970 then you should probably play smaller tournaments, 66 00:02:51,970 --> 00:02:53,535 where this is not really the case-- 67 00:02:53,535 --> 00:02:55,950 where this doesn't occur too often. 68 00:02:55,950 --> 00:02:58,570 I can understand in practice, if you play poker for fun 69 00:02:58,570 --> 00:03:00,280 and you made it far in a tournament 70 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,120 and it's the top, let's say, 50K, 71 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,810 and there's 55 left, I can understand why you might not 72 00:03:07,810 --> 00:03:15,120 want to make a positive money expectation play because you've 73 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:16,170 played this tournament. 74 00:03:16,170 --> 00:03:18,170 You're probably not going to be in the situation 75 00:03:18,170 --> 00:03:19,930 that many times in your lifetime. 76 00:03:19,930 --> 00:03:22,000 And you just really want to cash the World 77 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:23,666 Series of Poker main event or something. 78 00:03:23,666 --> 00:03:25,750 And I think that's a reasonable life decision. 79 00:03:25,750 --> 00:03:27,625 I'm not criticizing that life decision. 80 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,365 But I'm going to talk about all of these decisions 81 00:03:33,365 --> 00:03:35,200 assuming we don't care about that. 82 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,290 We're still trying to maximize expected amount of money. 83 00:03:38,290 --> 00:03:39,880 And if you are playing professionally, 84 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,800 where you're getting into that situation very frequently, 85 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:46,690 then it is very important to maximize risk in some cases 86 00:03:46,690 --> 00:03:51,640 and to maximize your dollar EV because in tournaments, you're 87 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:52,820 losing most of the time. 88 00:03:52,820 --> 00:03:58,060 You really have to win a lot the times that you do win. 89 00:03:58,060 --> 00:04:03,360 You can't be content because we made $30,000 90 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,710 if we could have made $50,000. 91 00:04:05,710 --> 00:04:07,379 So OK. 92 00:04:07,379 --> 00:04:09,670 So what is the exact formula for ICM/ So I'm just going 93 00:04:09,670 --> 00:04:13,240 to demonstrate how to calculate the value of chips 94 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,980 in a tournament with an example. 95 00:04:15,980 --> 00:04:19,149 So ICM is essentially a formula to calculate 96 00:04:19,149 --> 00:04:21,279 how much your stack is worth in a tournament. 97 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:23,620 So let's suppose there's three players left 98 00:04:23,620 --> 00:04:25,480 and that payouts are 5, 3, 2. 99 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,240 This is a common structure in sit-and-goes 100 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,425 if you've played those, which are 10-player tournaments. 101 00:04:30,425 --> 00:04:32,050 So this is the statement is essentially 102 00:04:32,050 --> 00:04:34,060 your chances of winning the tournament is 103 00:04:34,060 --> 00:04:36,850 proportional to your percent of the total chips. 104 00:04:36,850 --> 00:04:39,570 And essentially we're assuming this is true, 105 00:04:39,570 --> 00:04:43,510 and we're going to derive from it all the formulas. 106 00:04:43,510 --> 00:04:45,250 And this statement is approximately true. 107 00:04:45,250 --> 00:04:47,800 There are more advanced ICM calculators 108 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,900 that also take into account your position 109 00:04:49,900 --> 00:04:53,050 if the stack sizes are rather shallow because there are 110 00:04:53,050 --> 00:04:55,570 some inaccuracies because this statement, 111 00:04:55,570 --> 00:04:57,520 it calculates only based on chips. 112 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,560 But if you're folding and then you're 113 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,110 the button the next hand, which is the best position, 114 00:05:02,110 --> 00:05:05,400 then that's actually an entire big blind 115 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,954 better almost than being under the gun the next hand. 116 00:05:07,954 --> 00:05:09,620 But we're not going to worry about that. 117 00:05:09,620 --> 00:05:11,410 We're just going to assume your chances 118 00:05:11,410 --> 00:05:13,910 of winning the tournament is proportional to your percentage 119 00:05:13,910 --> 00:05:14,440 of chips. 120 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,470 So how do we calculate this? 121 00:05:17,470 --> 00:05:20,380 So you can't really do it by hand in practice. 122 00:05:20,380 --> 00:05:23,070 But for this example with three people, 123 00:05:23,070 --> 00:05:24,900 I'll show you how to do it by hand. 124 00:05:24,900 --> 00:05:27,440 So let's suppose the chips stacks are also 5, 3, 2. 125 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:29,480 OK, so the payouts are 5, 3, 2. 126 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,110 And the chip stacks are also 5, 3, 2 ratio. 127 00:05:33,110 --> 00:05:36,900 If chip EV equals money EV, then the guy with 5,000, 128 00:05:36,900 --> 00:05:40,160 their equity from the tournament should be $5. 129 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:41,990 And the guy in third place, their equity 130 00:05:41,990 --> 00:05:43,370 should be $2, right? 131 00:05:43,370 --> 00:05:46,750 But this is clearly not correct because the guy in third place 132 00:05:46,750 --> 00:05:48,170 is guaranteed $2. 133 00:05:48,170 --> 00:05:49,699 And clearly there's a nonzero chance 134 00:05:49,699 --> 00:05:50,990 of them winning the tournament. 135 00:05:50,990 --> 00:05:54,050 So clearly their equity is actually more than $2. 136 00:05:54,050 --> 00:05:56,270 And then similarly if you're player A, 137 00:05:56,270 --> 00:05:59,450 your equity is clearly not $5 because you're not guaranteed 138 00:05:59,450 --> 00:06:00,950 to win the tournament. 139 00:06:00,950 --> 00:06:04,130 So it's clear from this example why if you just do chip 140 00:06:04,130 --> 00:06:07,110 EV equals money EV, that's clearly wrong. 141 00:06:07,110 --> 00:06:10,040 Is that clear to everyone? 142 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:11,900 So how do we calculate it? 143 00:06:11,900 --> 00:06:13,595 So let's calculate it for player C. 144 00:06:13,595 --> 00:06:15,470 So essentially what it's saying, your chances 145 00:06:15,470 --> 00:06:17,700 of winning, your chances of coming first 146 00:06:17,700 --> 00:06:21,290 is 2,000 over 10,000, which is 20%. 147 00:06:21,290 --> 00:06:23,530 And then to calculate your chances of coming second, 148 00:06:23,530 --> 00:06:26,930 you just condition on each of the other player's way. 149 00:06:26,930 --> 00:06:28,580 So conditioned on A winning, which 150 00:06:28,580 --> 00:06:30,566 would happen 50% of the time, we assume 151 00:06:30,566 --> 00:06:31,940 that our chances of coming second 152 00:06:31,940 --> 00:06:36,529 is 2,000 divided by 5,000, which is the remaining 153 00:06:36,529 --> 00:06:38,820 number of chips besides player A. Does that make sense? 154 00:06:38,820 --> 00:06:40,670 So player A has 5,000 chips. 155 00:06:40,670 --> 00:06:45,310 So between you who's player C and player D, 156 00:06:45,310 --> 00:06:48,320 there's 5,000 chips in total, and you got 2,000 of those. 157 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,680 So it's 2,000 over 5,000, so it's 0.4. 158 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,350 And then if player B wins, then your chances of coming second 159 00:06:54,350 --> 00:06:56,210 is 2,000 over 7,000. 160 00:06:56,210 --> 00:07:00,520 So overall, your chances of coming second is 0.4-- 161 00:07:03,030 --> 00:07:07,820 So it says, 50% times 0.4 plus 30% times 2/7, 162 00:07:07,820 --> 00:07:09,470 which equals 2/7. 163 00:07:09,470 --> 00:07:11,300 So then you can calculate your equity 164 00:07:11,300 --> 00:07:12,830 is-- you're guaranteed $2. 165 00:07:12,830 --> 00:07:15,600 And you have a 20% chance of winning, which would give you 166 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,000 three additional dollars. 167 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,550 And then a 29% chance of coming second, which would give you 168 00:07:19,550 --> 00:07:20,750 an additional dollar. 169 00:07:20,750 --> 00:07:23,870 So your equity is actually 2.89 in this case. 170 00:07:23,870 --> 00:07:28,522 is actually closer to second place than third place. 171 00:07:28,522 --> 00:07:30,600 Does that calculation make sense to everyone? 172 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,220 So if there's five players, you just 173 00:07:33,220 --> 00:07:34,820 have to recursively condition. 174 00:07:34,820 --> 00:07:37,160 You have to condition on player A winning and then 175 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:39,500 go through all the possibilities of who can come second. 176 00:07:39,500 --> 00:07:40,880 Then go through all the possibilities 177 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:42,838 of who could comes third, et cetera, et cetera. 178 00:07:42,838 --> 00:07:46,760 So it's not a calculation you can really do in your head. 179 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:51,300 But that it's quite easy to find a calculator to do it for you. 180 00:07:51,300 --> 00:07:54,110 You just Google ICM calculator, and you punch it in. 181 00:07:54,110 --> 00:07:55,910 And even though it's not-- 182 00:07:55,910 --> 00:07:57,080 it grows exponentially. 183 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,990 But there's only going to be nine players. 184 00:07:59,990 --> 00:08:01,300 So it's still fine. 185 00:08:01,300 --> 00:08:02,246 It won't take that-- 186 00:08:02,246 --> 00:08:03,620 the computer can do it instantly, 187 00:08:03,620 --> 00:08:07,550 even for 9-10 players. 188 00:08:07,550 --> 00:08:12,780 OK, so what are some cases where ICM is easy to calculate? 189 00:08:12,780 --> 00:08:16,730 So like I said, in cash games, there is no such thing as ICM. 190 00:08:16,730 --> 00:08:19,400 You're just playing to maximize expected number of chips. 191 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,890 And your goal is essentially, you're 192 00:08:21,890 --> 00:08:25,650 sitting out at the cash game looking to get into all-ins, 193 00:08:25,650 --> 00:08:27,380 looking to get into favorable all-ins, 194 00:08:27,380 --> 00:08:32,510 hopefully winning the person who you're targeting's money. 195 00:08:32,510 --> 00:08:34,450 And in winner-takes-all tournaments, 196 00:08:34,450 --> 00:08:37,277 it's also the same because you're just 197 00:08:37,277 --> 00:08:39,360 looking at your chances of winning the tournament. 198 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,260 And that's always just your number of chips. 199 00:08:41,260 --> 00:08:42,634 So you're just trying to maximize 200 00:08:42,634 --> 00:08:44,690 expected number of chips. 201 00:08:44,690 --> 00:08:47,120 So as a corollary, once it gets down to two players, 202 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:49,660 there's no more such thing as ICM. 203 00:08:49,660 --> 00:08:51,835 Three is the minimum number of players you 204 00:08:51,835 --> 00:08:53,600 need for ICM to be relevant. 205 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,840 Once it's two players, it's just maximize your chip EV 206 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:00,390 because there's no sense of trying to survive in hopes 207 00:09:00,390 --> 00:09:01,950 that someone else busts first. 208 00:09:01,950 --> 00:09:04,850 Because with only two people, for the other guy to bust, 209 00:09:04,850 --> 00:09:06,380 you have to take all their chips. 210 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,010 OK, so what are some mathematical corollaries 211 00:09:12,010 --> 00:09:14,260 of ICM formula? 212 00:09:14,260 --> 00:09:17,380 So big stacks have money EV less than chip EV. 213 00:09:17,380 --> 00:09:21,240 Small stacks have money EV greater than chip EV. 214 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:24,432 Small stacks also tend to have positive chip EV in general. 215 00:09:24,432 --> 00:09:26,390 This is something I didn't mention to you much. 216 00:09:26,390 --> 00:09:28,740 But in general-- so you might have seen this 217 00:09:28,740 --> 00:09:31,900 if you guys have been to a casino and played cash games. 218 00:09:31,900 --> 00:09:35,620 So let's say you sit down at a table in a cash game 219 00:09:35,620 --> 00:09:38,710 and everyone buys in for 100 big blinds. 220 00:09:38,710 --> 00:09:41,020 At some tables, usually they'll allow you to buy in 221 00:09:41,020 --> 00:09:43,490 for as low as 20 big blinds. 222 00:09:43,490 --> 00:09:46,300 And if you do this, in general, that's 223 00:09:46,300 --> 00:09:50,590 going to be positive EV for the guy with 20 big blinds 224 00:09:50,590 --> 00:09:54,560 because there's situations where they have to-- 225 00:09:54,560 --> 00:09:57,940 Where, let's say, they have to essentially sometimes 226 00:09:57,940 --> 00:09:58,960 one guy will raise. 227 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:00,040 One guy will call. 228 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:01,510 And then you can go all in. 229 00:10:01,510 --> 00:10:04,210 And one guy will go all in on top of you. 230 00:10:04,210 --> 00:10:05,500 And the other guy will fold. 231 00:10:05,500 --> 00:10:08,500 And then you have dead money. 232 00:10:08,500 --> 00:10:11,230 So another thing is early on in the tournament, 233 00:10:11,230 --> 00:10:12,454 ICM is irrelevant. 234 00:10:12,454 --> 00:10:13,870 You just want to accumulate chips. 235 00:10:13,870 --> 00:10:18,160 So if you try to do this formula early on in a tournament, what 236 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:23,050 you'll find is essentially you're 237 00:10:23,050 --> 00:10:25,660 so far away from the money that none of the things 238 00:10:25,660 --> 00:10:27,790 really matter to maximize your chances of even 239 00:10:27,790 --> 00:10:28,960 getting to the money. 240 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,440 You just want to maximize your number of chips. 241 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:33,830 So where is ICM most relevant? 242 00:10:33,830 --> 00:10:36,340 It's most relevant on the exact payout bubble 243 00:10:36,340 --> 00:10:38,240 and on the final table. 244 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,600 So roughly speaking, in every poker tournament 245 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,680 I've seen other than strange ones that are winner-takes-all 246 00:10:43,680 --> 00:10:48,020 or satellites, the payout looks roughly like this. 247 00:10:48,020 --> 00:10:49,240 So it's 0. 248 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:53,560 You go in, and once you hit about top 20% is the bubble. 249 00:10:53,560 --> 00:10:58,180 And then there's a jump here where suddenly you get paid. 250 00:10:58,180 --> 00:11:01,430 This is about 80% get 0. 251 00:11:01,430 --> 00:11:03,290 So here there's a jump, and then it 252 00:11:03,290 --> 00:11:07,195 escalates slowly until you get to the final table. 253 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,420 Final-- sorry, I'll actually switched to color-- 254 00:11:13,420 --> 00:11:14,650 final table. 255 00:11:14,650 --> 00:11:16,780 And then it escalates really fast. 256 00:11:16,780 --> 00:11:20,170 So essentially basically ICM is most relevant at the points 257 00:11:20,170 --> 00:11:22,160 where essentially, the derivative, 258 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,040 or the rate of change the payout, is highest. 259 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,480 And those points, as you can see, are here and here. 260 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,850 So essentially it matters most at the exact money bubble 261 00:11:32,850 --> 00:11:36,280 and in the final table. 262 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:37,495 OK, let me clear this. 263 00:11:40,670 --> 00:11:42,200 OK, so yeah, so some more extreme 264 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,960 examples of ICM you have one chip 265 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:47,060 left late in the tournament when everyone else 266 00:11:47,060 --> 00:11:48,200 has thousands of chips. 267 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:49,970 So clearly this ship is worth a lot more 268 00:11:49,970 --> 00:11:52,190 than its value as a fraction of the chips. 269 00:11:52,190 --> 00:11:54,410 And you're just trying to survive with this one chip 270 00:11:54,410 --> 00:11:56,690 essentially instead of trying to win more chips. 271 00:12:00,002 --> 00:12:01,460 Maybe I'll calculate this in a bit. 272 00:12:01,460 --> 00:12:03,507 So in satellites-- what satellites are 273 00:12:03,507 --> 00:12:05,090 are there are tournaments where you're 274 00:12:05,090 --> 00:12:07,430 trying to qualify for a bigger tournament. 275 00:12:07,430 --> 00:12:09,380 So essentially the important thing 276 00:12:09,380 --> 00:12:12,020 is there will be maybe 100 players. 277 00:12:12,020 --> 00:12:13,430 And there will be 10 seats, which 278 00:12:13,430 --> 00:12:16,560 means the top 10 get an invite to the bigger tournament. 279 00:12:16,560 --> 00:12:18,110 And then everyone else gets nothing. 280 00:12:18,110 --> 00:12:21,320 So I guess the qualifiers for the MIT Series of Poker Main 281 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,846 Event are kind of like this. 282 00:12:23,846 --> 00:12:25,220 I guess there's other prizes, to. 283 00:12:25,220 --> 00:12:27,094 But you're essentially trying to come top 10. 284 00:12:27,094 --> 00:12:29,330 So this is how that works. 285 00:12:29,330 --> 00:12:33,860 And in that case, the payout is essentially this. 286 00:12:33,860 --> 00:12:36,300 So there's not really much incentive to win. 287 00:12:36,300 --> 00:12:40,970 You're just trying to be one of this top 10% that gets paid. 288 00:12:40,970 --> 00:12:44,210 So that's another case where ICM has extreme importance. 289 00:12:44,210 --> 00:12:45,220 And you often find-- 290 00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:47,300 well, not often-- but you can often 291 00:12:47,300 --> 00:12:50,620 make a case for folding pocket aces preflop 292 00:12:50,620 --> 00:12:52,830 even though you know it's going to have positive chip 293 00:12:52,830 --> 00:12:56,030 EV if you call because it's the best possible hand. 294 00:12:56,030 --> 00:12:59,310 But because you just really don't want to bust, then 295 00:12:59,310 --> 00:13:01,610 just you want to fold aces. 296 00:13:01,610 --> 00:13:05,014 OK, we'll talk about this a bit more later. 297 00:13:05,014 --> 00:13:06,680 OK, so let's get back to the tournament. 298 00:13:06,680 --> 00:13:09,290 So this is the final table. 299 00:13:09,290 --> 00:13:13,810 So ICM is going to be quite relevant here. 300 00:13:13,810 --> 00:13:15,980 As I'm talking through my decisions in the hands, 301 00:13:15,980 --> 00:13:19,520 I'll talk about the ICM decisions as well. 302 00:13:22,415 --> 00:13:27,800 This is the first hand, or I think maybe one orbit passed. 303 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:29,720 We're at the final table. 304 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:33,064 We're the second biggest stack. 305 00:13:33,064 --> 00:13:34,730 We should maybe look at the stack sizes. 306 00:13:34,730 --> 00:13:36,450 So we look around at the stack sizes. 307 00:13:36,450 --> 00:13:38,325 So what do you notice about the stack sizes? 308 00:13:38,325 --> 00:13:40,560 Or specifically, how are we doing? 309 00:13:40,560 --> 00:13:43,115 How many chips do we have? 310 00:13:43,115 --> 00:13:43,990 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 311 00:13:43,990 --> 00:13:46,021 WILL MA: Real. 312 00:13:46,021 --> 00:13:46,520 Right. 313 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:47,590 We have quite a lot, right? 314 00:13:47,590 --> 00:13:48,030 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 315 00:13:48,030 --> 00:13:50,540 WILL MA: We have quite a lot, but we're not in first place. 316 00:13:50,540 --> 00:13:52,640 There's this one guy who covers us. 317 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,930 So this Panpancrisy guy who covers us. 318 00:13:56,930 --> 00:14:00,140 So specifically, the thing I'm trying to avoid 319 00:14:00,140 --> 00:14:04,250 is getting in a big pot with Panpancrisy. 320 00:14:04,250 --> 00:14:07,220 Let's say he goes all in, and I have pocket kings. 321 00:14:07,220 --> 00:14:08,360 I'm going to call. 322 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,000 But I'm not going to be that happy about calling 323 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,760 in a situation where otherwise I should be very unhappy. 324 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:16,060 Just because chances are he's going to have an ace. 325 00:14:16,060 --> 00:14:17,660 He's going to have 30% equity. 326 00:14:17,660 --> 00:14:19,900 It's still going to be positive money EV call, 327 00:14:19,900 --> 00:14:24,750 but it's so bad if I basically bust right now in eighth place 328 00:14:24,750 --> 00:14:26,270 against Panpancrisy. 329 00:14:26,270 --> 00:14:29,120 So essentially I'm really incentivized 330 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,612 to avoid getting in big pots with him. 331 00:14:31,612 --> 00:14:34,070 And I'm essentially hoping for some of these smaller stacks 332 00:14:34,070 --> 00:14:37,490 to bust so that then, even if I lose a big pot to him, 333 00:14:37,490 --> 00:14:40,130 I don't get the low eighth place payout. 334 00:14:40,130 --> 00:14:43,070 So OK, so it's folded of us. 335 00:14:43,070 --> 00:14:44,720 We raise here. 336 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:46,880 I think this is one of the weakest hands I 337 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,260 am raising from the button. 338 00:14:48,260 --> 00:14:51,110 But so far players have seemed to be reasonably tight, 339 00:14:51,110 --> 00:14:52,730 so I'm going to raise. 340 00:14:52,730 --> 00:14:54,390 And then I get the blinds. 341 00:14:57,630 --> 00:15:01,250 OK, so I'll skip some hands at the beginning. 342 00:15:01,250 --> 00:15:03,440 Near the end, I'll play every hand. 343 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,810 This hand we don't play, but I'll try to show the hands 344 00:15:05,810 --> 00:15:07,119 were someone busts. 345 00:15:07,119 --> 00:15:08,660 So this hand small blind goes all in. 346 00:15:08,660 --> 00:15:10,100 Big blind calls. 347 00:15:10,100 --> 00:15:13,330 And so small blind wins with 10-2 348 00:15:13,330 --> 00:15:16,110 suited against ace-4, which is basically great for everyone 349 00:15:16,110 --> 00:15:17,240 at the table. 350 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:19,310 Because someone busted, you're always 351 00:15:19,310 --> 00:15:22,120 cheering for people who bust essentially. 352 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,620 And I think also both of their plays are fine. 353 00:15:24,620 --> 00:15:27,590 So I think small blinds play-- it looks a bit silly. 354 00:15:27,590 --> 00:15:32,010 But realistically not only does 10-2 suited have reasonable 355 00:15:32,010 --> 00:15:34,130 equity when you're called, it's also-- 356 00:15:34,130 --> 00:15:36,650 the ICM is very, very relevant. 357 00:15:36,650 --> 00:15:40,430 This Gerardocks guy, he's not the shortest. 358 00:15:40,430 --> 00:15:43,130 He is one of the shortest, so he does need to take some risk, 359 00:15:43,130 --> 00:15:45,270 but he's still really very much would like 360 00:15:45,270 --> 00:15:49,070 to bust after I show to Heap78. 361 00:15:49,070 --> 00:15:51,020 So he can't call with anything. 362 00:15:51,020 --> 00:15:53,600 With ace-4, I think that's definitely good enough to call. 363 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,870 But let's say they have king-2 offsuit. 364 00:15:56,870 --> 00:15:59,560 I think that's the situation I'd normally call if it was not 365 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,000 a final table in a tournament. 366 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:03,610 But at the final table, where I'm not the shortest 367 00:16:03,610 --> 00:16:05,150 and there's someone shorter than me, 368 00:16:05,150 --> 00:16:06,995 I would consider folding 10-2-- 369 00:16:06,995 --> 00:16:14,740 sorry, king-2 offsuit here just because of ICM essentially. 370 00:16:14,740 --> 00:16:17,760 All right, so the next hand-- 371 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:19,450 so the big blind busts. 372 00:16:19,450 --> 00:16:21,350 And then there's no small blind in this hand, 373 00:16:21,350 --> 00:16:25,050 which is great because people are less incentivized to steal. 374 00:16:25,050 --> 00:16:27,135 And indeed we get our big blind back. 375 00:16:27,135 --> 00:16:28,010 AUDIENCE: That works. 376 00:16:28,010 --> 00:16:30,610 WILL MA: Very nice. 377 00:16:30,610 --> 00:16:32,030 OK, so not much happens here. 378 00:16:32,030 --> 00:16:33,040 I'll skip forward a bit. 379 00:16:36,510 --> 00:16:38,200 OK, this hand-- 380 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,010 I guess it's quite convenient for us. 381 00:16:40,010 --> 00:16:42,440 But this still illustrates a point. 382 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:44,540 So this guy, who dealt a bit earlier, 383 00:16:44,540 --> 00:16:46,550 now he goes all in for quite a lot. 384 00:16:46,550 --> 00:16:48,050 This is quite a big shove. 385 00:16:48,050 --> 00:16:50,540 And if you play by my recommendations, 386 00:16:50,540 --> 00:16:55,320 I would never recommend shoving this many bets. 387 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:56,810 It's 24. 388 00:16:56,810 --> 00:16:57,845 That's quite a lot-- 389 00:16:57,845 --> 00:16:59,280 actually, 23, sorry. 390 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:03,110 It's 23 big blinds, which is way too much to shove. 391 00:17:03,110 --> 00:17:05,270 There's no need to risk this much. 392 00:17:05,270 --> 00:17:08,660 But once again, I think his play is justifiable because of ICM. 393 00:17:11,519 --> 00:17:12,560 So let's see what he had. 394 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,280 So we call. 395 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,099 Here it's a bit different because even 396 00:17:16,099 --> 00:17:20,390 if I call and lose, I'm not out of the tournament. 397 00:17:20,390 --> 00:17:23,420 Even if I would be out, even if he had 200,000, 398 00:17:23,420 --> 00:17:25,160 I'd probably still call with queens. 399 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,439 It's just too good to fold. 400 00:17:27,439 --> 00:17:29,480 So we need ace-queen here, which is great for us. 401 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,790 But if you look at the play from his perspective again, 402 00:17:32,790 --> 00:17:34,370 it actually seems quite reasonable 403 00:17:34,370 --> 00:17:37,160 if you think about it because for him, ace-queen 404 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:38,840 is a great hand from this position. 405 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,150 It's definitely good enough where 406 00:17:41,150 --> 00:17:45,110 if it was between folding and shoving for 23 big blinds, 407 00:17:45,110 --> 00:17:47,900 you would definitely rather shove for 23 big blinds. 408 00:17:47,900 --> 00:17:51,520 So the main reason why normally one would criticize his play 409 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,950 is because why doesn't he just raise small with ace-queen? 410 00:17:54,950 --> 00:17:57,610 Well, understandably, he doesn't really 411 00:17:57,610 --> 00:18:01,160 want to incentivize me to reraise or Panpancrisy 412 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:01,910 to make a reraise. 413 00:18:01,910 --> 00:18:04,790 He essentially wants to minimize the chances 414 00:18:04,790 --> 00:18:08,160 that he has to play for his stack in this hand. 415 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,520 And the way he does that is essentially by going all in. 416 00:18:13,730 --> 00:18:16,310 Looking at back at it, I think his play is fine. 417 00:18:16,310 --> 00:18:18,790 The only weakness of his play, I think, 418 00:18:18,790 --> 00:18:23,120 is it is a bit predictable what his hand is in this situation 419 00:18:23,120 --> 00:18:26,720 because I think if he had a hand as good as pocket aces, 420 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,227 then he shouldn't be doing this. 421 00:18:28,227 --> 00:18:30,560 He should just be raising small because it's good enough 422 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:35,130 where he's happy getting it in against me or Panpancrisy. 423 00:18:35,130 --> 00:18:38,250 Whereas also if his hand was slightly worse, 424 00:18:38,250 --> 00:18:40,370 like ace-jack offsuit I think is a good example, 425 00:18:40,370 --> 00:18:44,150 I think ace-jack offsuit is not strong enough 426 00:18:44,150 --> 00:18:45,550 to make this all-in play with. 427 00:18:45,550 --> 00:18:47,090 But you still want to be raising. 428 00:18:47,090 --> 00:18:49,490 So I think there's a small range of hands 429 00:18:49,490 --> 00:18:51,470 that you want to be making this all-in play is. 430 00:18:51,470 --> 00:18:55,520 I think it's basically exactly he's queen offsuit, 431 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,040 may ace-king, maybe ace-queen, ace-king. 432 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:02,420 And then middle pairs, let's say between like pocket 8s 433 00:19:02,420 --> 00:19:04,760 and pocket 10s or something. 434 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:06,740 So the only downside of this play I think 435 00:19:06,740 --> 00:19:09,560 is essentially his range here is very predictable it's 436 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:13,710 going to be ace-jack suited plus ace-queen and pocket 8s 437 00:19:13,710 --> 00:19:15,500 through 10s or something like that. 438 00:19:15,500 --> 00:19:18,530 But nonetheless, I think, because it's a final table, 439 00:19:18,530 --> 00:19:21,401 because of ICM, it's fine. 440 00:19:21,401 --> 00:19:22,400 He gets unlucky, though. 441 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:23,954 He runs into queens. 442 00:19:23,954 --> 00:19:25,370 All right, here we've got to walk. 443 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,400 OK, so let's see this hand. 444 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,920 So I showed to-- 445 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:34,270 raises goes all in. 446 00:19:34,270 --> 00:19:35,080 So we call here. 447 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,680 We're deep enough where I want to give myself the opportunity 448 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,680 to fold if Panpancrisy he goes all-in. 449 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,070 And we call. 450 00:19:45,070 --> 00:19:45,870 And we win. 451 00:19:45,870 --> 00:19:47,389 So OK, so I guess I've been running 452 00:19:47,389 --> 00:19:48,680 pretty good in this tournament. 453 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,440 But I just want to point out, there 454 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,434 is a lot of selection bias here because I'm not 455 00:19:53,434 --> 00:19:54,850 going to play through a tournament 456 00:19:54,850 --> 00:19:57,300 where I get all-in on the first hand and lose. 457 00:19:57,300 --> 00:20:00,010 So I mean I'm going to pick a tournament that I [INAUDIBLE].. 458 00:20:00,010 --> 00:20:03,760 So it's in some sense not the best pedagogical example 459 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,481 because there is a lot of selection bias. 460 00:20:06,481 --> 00:20:08,980 You know that I'm going to run very good in the tournament I 461 00:20:08,980 --> 00:20:10,030 choose to show you guys. 462 00:20:10,030 --> 00:20:13,400 But if it's between that and having be over in 463 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,100 five minutes because I lost-- 464 00:20:15,100 --> 00:20:17,256 [LAUGHTER] 465 00:20:17,256 --> 00:20:18,685 --this is the lesser of two evils. 466 00:20:22,516 --> 00:20:24,830 All right, so here, yeah. 467 00:20:24,830 --> 00:20:27,170 So once again, this is a pretty-- it's not that big, 468 00:20:27,170 --> 00:20:30,340 but it's a 17 big blind shove. 469 00:20:30,340 --> 00:20:32,810 And once again, it's justified by ICM prefold. 470 00:20:36,910 --> 00:20:38,650 OK, here, queen-7 off. 471 00:20:38,650 --> 00:20:39,880 Yeah, I shove. 472 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:43,130 I think it's probably barely a-- 473 00:20:43,130 --> 00:20:46,210 I think it's pretty close if chip EV equals money EV. 474 00:20:46,210 --> 00:20:49,080 It would be a borderline shove with the smallish antes. 475 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:53,910 But given ICM, I know he's less incentivized to call 476 00:20:53,910 --> 00:20:54,410 than usual. 477 00:20:54,410 --> 00:20:57,270 So all borderline hands I'm going to be shoving, so I do. 478 00:21:02,690 --> 00:21:04,770 OK, so this hand we get king-10. 479 00:21:04,770 --> 00:21:07,170 So once again, I just shove. 480 00:21:07,170 --> 00:21:10,410 Once again, I think I-- 481 00:21:10,410 --> 00:21:13,080 basically it's hard for them to call if I just shove 482 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,570 and because of ICM. 483 00:21:15,570 --> 00:21:17,640 So I'm essentially bullying him, bully them. 484 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,015 So when you're the big stack, you 485 00:21:19,015 --> 00:21:24,180 can bully people at the final table because of ICM. 486 00:21:24,180 --> 00:21:25,770 We do get lucked up here, though. 487 00:21:25,770 --> 00:21:27,090 And we get lucked up at ace-8. 488 00:21:27,090 --> 00:21:31,360 And so he wins. 489 00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:33,030 I'm not going to do an exact calculation 490 00:21:33,030 --> 00:21:35,670 because I'm going to do an exact ICM calculation later. 491 00:21:39,630 --> 00:21:42,710 I would guess his call is very borderline. 492 00:21:42,710 --> 00:21:45,360 It's definitely positive chip expectancy, 493 00:21:45,360 --> 00:21:48,820 but the fact that there's this guy with only 57,000 494 00:21:48,820 --> 00:21:52,710 and this guy with 70,000, I think it's a call. 495 00:21:52,710 --> 00:21:55,194 But I think ace-6 is definitely a fold. 496 00:21:55,194 --> 00:21:57,360 So I think it's probably one of the weakest hands he 497 00:21:57,360 --> 00:21:58,318 should be calling with. 498 00:21:58,318 --> 00:22:00,166 I think ace-8 is probably too good. 499 00:22:00,166 --> 00:22:02,790 He has to call, but I think it's very borderline in either case 500 00:22:02,790 --> 00:22:05,380 because of ICM. 501 00:22:05,380 --> 00:22:08,020 So he does fold, though. 502 00:22:08,020 --> 00:22:11,630 So now ICM is a bit trickier because now we're smaller. 503 00:22:11,630 --> 00:22:14,130 We're getting it all in with any of these guys can really 504 00:22:14,130 --> 00:22:15,150 damage us. 505 00:22:15,150 --> 00:22:17,010 And there's still two short stacks 506 00:22:17,010 --> 00:22:19,590 that everyone is hoping will bust soon. 507 00:22:22,370 --> 00:22:25,450 So In this situation, I could go all in and bully 508 00:22:25,450 --> 00:22:29,730 this Panpancrisy guy, but ICM isn't that relevant. 509 00:22:29,730 --> 00:22:32,070 He's not going to fold ace-queen if I go all in. 510 00:22:32,070 --> 00:22:34,140 So I just give this one to him. 511 00:22:37,050 --> 00:22:39,510 Calling is probably bad anyway, but calling, I think, 512 00:22:39,510 --> 00:22:41,310 is especially bad because it just 513 00:22:41,310 --> 00:22:44,780 increases the chances of getting in a bigger pot. 514 00:22:47,881 --> 00:22:49,357 OK, we'll skip forward a bit. 515 00:22:49,357 --> 00:22:50,190 Let's see this hand. 516 00:22:53,100 --> 00:22:54,340 So ace-10 off here. 517 00:22:54,340 --> 00:22:56,460 So this guy makes it 12,000. 518 00:22:56,460 --> 00:22:59,100 And I guess I've skipped a bunch of hands. 519 00:22:59,100 --> 00:23:01,890 So Nicholas Brody, I think, has been very active. 520 00:23:01,890 --> 00:23:04,960 And overall, I think people have become very active. 521 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,540 Everyone's playing a lot of pots. 522 00:23:06,540 --> 00:23:10,380 So overall, I am going to put people on wider ranges 523 00:23:10,380 --> 00:23:12,780 than I normally do. 524 00:23:12,780 --> 00:23:15,900 But nonetheless here, I still fold ace-10. 525 00:23:15,900 --> 00:23:18,810 I think it's ace-jack I would probably get it in. 526 00:23:18,810 --> 00:23:22,080 And ace-10 suited, I think I'd get it in. 527 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,290 Ace-10 suited is borderline. 528 00:23:25,290 --> 00:23:30,330 Once again, when you're tied between getting in a smaller 529 00:23:30,330 --> 00:23:36,030 pot and getting in a bigger pot, you want to be folding. 530 00:23:36,030 --> 00:23:37,447 Yeah, so I guess at a final table, 531 00:23:37,447 --> 00:23:38,488 I should make this clear. 532 00:23:38,488 --> 00:23:40,020 It's not like you want to fold more. 533 00:23:40,020 --> 00:23:43,540 It's you want to go all in more when you're first to act. 534 00:23:43,540 --> 00:23:45,956 But call other people's all-ins less. 535 00:23:45,956 --> 00:23:47,580 So that's exactly what's going on here. 536 00:23:47,580 --> 00:23:49,200 He's already moved all in. 537 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,920 And I'm going to fold to his all-in 538 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,980 more often than in a normal game. 539 00:23:53,980 --> 00:23:56,250 But as you can see, I haven't really 540 00:23:56,250 --> 00:23:59,350 been tighter in every sense because when I get to go first, 541 00:23:59,350 --> 00:24:02,310 I think actually going all in more often and risking it 542 00:24:02,310 --> 00:24:04,620 more often because I know my opponents are 543 00:24:04,620 --> 00:24:08,161 highly incentivized to fold. 544 00:24:08,161 --> 00:24:08,910 So they go all in. 545 00:24:08,910 --> 00:24:10,020 I fold here. 546 00:24:10,020 --> 00:24:12,880 So Nicholas Brody also folds, which I guess is fine. 547 00:24:15,214 --> 00:24:17,130 Definitely he had pretty odds he called there. 548 00:24:20,310 --> 00:24:22,520 But once again, ICM just makes-- 549 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,220 it changes things up a bit. 550 00:24:24,220 --> 00:24:26,340 Jack-7 suited, once again, is a pretty big shove, 551 00:24:26,340 --> 00:24:29,099 but jack-7 suited plenty good [INAUDIBLE]---- 552 00:24:29,099 --> 00:24:29,640 ICM relevant. 553 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:33,720 Pocket 9s here. 554 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,750 We make it 12,000 on the button. 555 00:24:36,750 --> 00:24:39,090 So here I think pocket 9s is good enough 556 00:24:39,090 --> 00:24:42,300 where I'm happy if one of them reraises all-in, and I call. 557 00:24:42,300 --> 00:24:44,340 So essentially my strategy here is 558 00:24:44,340 --> 00:24:47,520 I'm going to shove all my medium strength hands 559 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:49,020 and especially hands that don't play 560 00:24:49,020 --> 00:24:51,900 well postflop ace-2 offsuit. 561 00:24:51,900 --> 00:24:55,320 And then I'm going to raise small with some of my hands 562 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,140 that are less good preflop but better postflop, let's say, 563 00:24:58,140 --> 00:25:02,910 10-8 suited, and also my monster hands like pocket nines 564 00:25:02,910 --> 00:25:05,250 that are also reasonable to play postflop. 565 00:25:07,990 --> 00:25:10,140 So Nicholas Brody calls here. 566 00:25:10,140 --> 00:25:13,350 And the flop is ace, jack, 7 with the hearts. 567 00:25:13,350 --> 00:25:15,120 So it's a bad flop for our hand, but it's 568 00:25:15,120 --> 00:25:19,020 a good flop for our range because I 569 00:25:19,020 --> 00:25:22,300 think, given the way the table was going, I was opening a lot. 570 00:25:22,300 --> 00:25:24,930 And Nicholas Brody is very aggressive. 571 00:25:24,930 --> 00:25:26,620 I would guess unless he had like pocket 572 00:25:26,620 --> 00:25:31,670 aces, which he might slow play, he would reraise most. 573 00:25:31,670 --> 00:25:35,180 I wasn't 100% sure-confident, but I was reasonable-- 574 00:25:35,180 --> 00:25:39,770 I'd say maybe 85% confident that if he had an ace preflop, 575 00:25:39,770 --> 00:25:41,760 he would have just went all in preflop. 576 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,781 So overall, I'd still say it's a very good flop for my range 577 00:25:44,781 --> 00:25:47,280 because I think he's way less likely to have an ace than me. 578 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,680 There's a small chance maybe he would 579 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,030 chicken out with ace-2 offsuit and just call. 580 00:25:53,030 --> 00:25:54,660 But given how aggressive he's been, 581 00:25:54,660 --> 00:25:57,220 I would be surprised if he did that. 582 00:25:57,220 --> 00:25:58,770 So I decided to bet here. 583 00:25:58,770 --> 00:26:01,590 And I'm still not sure how good this bet is. 584 00:26:01,590 --> 00:26:04,060 So I think at the time I bet, because 585 00:26:04,060 --> 00:26:07,620 of my logic that it's really hard for him to have an ace, 586 00:26:07,620 --> 00:26:10,230 and so I think the best strategy for me on this flop 587 00:26:10,230 --> 00:26:14,190 and in this situation is to just bet 100% of my hands. 588 00:26:14,190 --> 00:26:16,860 And he's just forced to fold basically 589 00:26:16,860 --> 00:26:19,660 very often because he can't really keep up with an ace. 590 00:26:19,660 --> 00:26:22,020 I can just continue betting. 591 00:26:22,020 --> 00:26:24,060 That being said, though, I do think 592 00:26:24,060 --> 00:26:26,550 if I do decide as part of my strategy 593 00:26:26,550 --> 00:26:28,530 to check any part of my range here, 594 00:26:28,530 --> 00:26:31,680 pocket 9s might actually be one of the best possible hands 595 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:32,410 to check back. 596 00:26:32,410 --> 00:26:34,530 So I think checking back would have been fine. 597 00:26:34,530 --> 00:26:36,870 I guess I'd bet here because I told myself, 598 00:26:36,870 --> 00:26:40,680 I want my strategy to be bet 100% of my hands, which I did. 599 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:46,200 And he folds, which is reasonably smart because he 600 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:47,710 knows that I can bet again. 601 00:26:47,710 --> 00:26:50,340 And he's going to have to make a decision for all his chips 602 00:26:50,340 --> 00:26:50,940 probably. 603 00:26:50,940 --> 00:26:52,273 And it's just going to be tough. 604 00:26:55,870 --> 00:26:57,680 OK, this hand-- 605 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:01,881 BeMySponsor goes all in, gets [INAUDIBLE].. 606 00:27:05,318 --> 00:27:07,330 Yeah? 607 00:27:07,330 --> 00:27:10,645 AUDIENCE: Why would you say, pocket 9s is one of the best 608 00:27:10,645 --> 00:27:11,760 hands to check back here? 609 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,040 WILL MA: I very rarely get called by worse, 610 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:20,980 and I get called by everything better. 611 00:27:20,980 --> 00:27:24,680 I think he's always calling a jack and usually folding a 7. 612 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,050 Maybe he won't fold 7-8 with some back door draws, 613 00:27:27,050 --> 00:27:29,295 but I think he'll usually call a jack. 614 00:27:29,295 --> 00:27:31,020 And maybe he'll call a 7 sometimes. 615 00:27:31,020 --> 00:27:33,670 But I still think mostly it's just he'll basically 616 00:27:33,670 --> 00:27:36,055 fold everything that beats me and call everything that-- 617 00:27:36,055 --> 00:27:39,010 sorry, he'll fold everything that I beat and call everything 618 00:27:39,010 --> 00:27:40,672 that beats me basically. 619 00:27:43,390 --> 00:27:46,630 Yeah, but I still decide to bet, nonetheless, just 620 00:27:46,630 --> 00:27:48,310 to win the pot there and not give him 621 00:27:48,310 --> 00:27:52,037 extra outs if he happens to have 10-6 suited or something. 622 00:27:54,719 --> 00:27:56,260 So OK, so we'll go through this hand. 623 00:27:56,260 --> 00:27:57,640 So Panpancrisy raises. 624 00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,940 He doesn't go all in, which is curious. 625 00:27:59,940 --> 00:28:02,230 But LPMBox calls. 626 00:28:02,230 --> 00:28:03,430 He calls again. 627 00:28:03,430 --> 00:28:04,700 It's checked. 628 00:28:04,700 --> 00:28:08,257 And then LPMBox goes on in the river [INAUDIBLE].. 629 00:28:11,530 --> 00:28:13,300 OK, jack-7 here? 630 00:28:13,300 --> 00:28:14,094 Yes. 631 00:28:14,094 --> 00:28:16,010 I guess, so once again, Nicholas Brady raises. 632 00:28:16,010 --> 00:28:20,290 And then LPMBox goes on over him, wins a big pot. 633 00:28:23,380 --> 00:28:25,810 So I guess I do the same for Nicholas Brady. 634 00:28:25,810 --> 00:28:29,290 He's been raising a lot, so pockets 6s good enough 635 00:28:29,290 --> 00:28:30,700 to risk going all in there. 636 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,120 OK, this hand-- so we get ace-jack suited. 637 00:28:37,120 --> 00:28:40,720 And I raise from cutoff. 638 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,270 So I've been raising to a fairly small size 639 00:28:43,270 --> 00:28:44,700 because the antes are smaller. 640 00:28:44,700 --> 00:28:47,290 So that's one thing to remember at a final table is 641 00:28:47,290 --> 00:28:50,140 the pots are actually a bit smaller because with only five 642 00:28:50,140 --> 00:28:53,680 players the ante, the sum of the antes, instead of normally 643 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,530 the 6,000, is only 3,000 in this case. 644 00:28:56,530 --> 00:29:00,080 So the big blind has worse odds to call. 645 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:01,860 So Nicholas Brady goes all in. 646 00:29:01,860 --> 00:29:03,940 I look him up ace-jack suited-- 647 00:29:03,940 --> 00:29:05,320 definitely good enough. 648 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,810 Also at this point, because a number of pots 649 00:29:07,810 --> 00:29:11,500 have gone my way, I'm big enough where even if I call and lose 650 00:29:11,500 --> 00:29:15,730 this, I won't be chip leader, but I'll still 651 00:29:15,730 --> 00:29:18,550 have a decent amount of chips. 652 00:29:18,550 --> 00:29:20,810 So unfortunately we lose the ace-8 here. 653 00:29:20,810 --> 00:29:22,750 So now we're second place, but we're still 654 00:29:22,750 --> 00:29:23,800 doing reasonably well. 655 00:29:29,770 --> 00:29:31,661 I could just maybe gone all in here. 656 00:29:31,661 --> 00:29:33,160 I guess this guy has a lot of chips. 657 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,650 But I could've raised to a bigger size 658 00:29:35,650 --> 00:29:38,530 to disincentive Nicholas Brody from doing this 659 00:29:38,530 --> 00:29:40,030 with the right wide range of hands 660 00:29:40,030 --> 00:29:44,050 and then protecting my stack more from an ICM point of view. 661 00:29:44,050 --> 00:29:45,310 But I'm happy with-- 662 00:29:45,310 --> 00:29:47,200 I think ace-jack suited is just good enough 663 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,147 where I'm happy calling his all-in, 664 00:29:50,147 --> 00:29:51,730 which I should have been in this case. 665 00:29:51,730 --> 00:29:52,820 I guess he had ace-6. 666 00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,270 OK, so jack-10 suited here. 667 00:30:00,270 --> 00:30:04,120 So yeah, here I just decided to fold. 668 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,680 I mean we could consider doing a crazy bluff all-in, 669 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:10,160 but I don't think this guy's folding that often. 670 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,760 They made a rather big reraise preflop 671 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:18,492 from going three times the initial opening. 672 00:30:18,492 --> 00:30:21,830 So Nicholas Brody goes all in here, and they do fold. 673 00:30:21,830 --> 00:30:23,860 So Nicholas Brody picking up a bunch of chips. 674 00:30:27,264 --> 00:30:28,555 So he just takes it down again. 675 00:30:28,555 --> 00:30:29,850 He's been raising quite a lot. 676 00:30:37,990 --> 00:30:39,400 Here we get a raise and a call. 677 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:45,950 So LPMBox has been raising over other people's-- 678 00:30:45,950 --> 00:30:47,020 opens quite a lot. 679 00:30:47,020 --> 00:30:49,490 So he gets called here, but he holds and wins, 680 00:30:49,490 --> 00:30:52,270 which is definitely bad news for everyone. 681 00:30:52,270 --> 00:30:56,110 If I could pay 10,000 chips into the pot 682 00:30:56,110 --> 00:30:58,024 to have this all-in go the other way, 683 00:30:58,024 --> 00:30:59,690 it almost certainly would be profitable. 684 00:30:59,690 --> 00:31:01,439 The amount actually we'd be willing to pay 685 00:31:01,439 --> 00:31:05,810 you make this all-in go the other way is probably 25,000. 686 00:31:05,810 --> 00:31:08,590 It's a ridiculous amount because just the value 687 00:31:08,590 --> 00:31:10,780 of having people bust and moving up the payouts 688 00:31:10,780 --> 00:31:13,420 is so significant, especially when I'm 689 00:31:13,420 --> 00:31:15,196 not such a big stack anymore. 690 00:31:18,390 --> 00:31:22,300 OK, so now this guy, he just doubled up. 691 00:31:22,300 --> 00:31:24,010 So I guess we were running pretty good. 692 00:31:24,010 --> 00:31:26,857 But I'd say in the last two or three orbits, as you can see, 693 00:31:26,857 --> 00:31:28,690 a lot of things haven't been that favorable. 694 00:31:28,690 --> 00:31:30,220 We've lost some all-ins. 695 00:31:30,220 --> 00:31:32,710 And also people haven't really busted. 696 00:31:32,710 --> 00:31:35,620 The chips are just being passed around the table, which 697 00:31:35,620 --> 00:31:39,130 is basically not what you're hoping for. 698 00:31:42,730 --> 00:31:44,090 So king-10 offsuit. 699 00:31:44,090 --> 00:31:45,134 We get a walk. 700 00:31:45,134 --> 00:31:47,050 So walk just means that everyone folds to you, 701 00:31:47,050 --> 00:31:48,000 and the big blind. 702 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,550 I think we've actually gotten quite a lot of walks 703 00:31:50,550 --> 00:31:52,380 at this final table. 704 00:31:52,380 --> 00:31:54,150 So something we can keep in mind if we're 705 00:31:54,150 --> 00:31:58,855 trying to play exploitatively later, queen-jack, go all in. 706 00:31:58,855 --> 00:31:59,355 He folds. 707 00:32:02,950 --> 00:32:07,190 So at 8-7 I guess, LPMBox, after winning that, so as you notice, 708 00:32:07,190 --> 00:32:09,810 the big stacks are the ones who win most of the pots. 709 00:32:09,810 --> 00:32:11,390 And this is expected. 710 00:32:11,390 --> 00:32:15,470 So whenever ICM is relevant, you would expect that-- 711 00:32:15,470 --> 00:32:19,730 so although the small stacks had a higher chip EV, then-- sorry, 712 00:32:19,730 --> 00:32:22,430 had a higher money EV than chip EV, 713 00:32:22,430 --> 00:32:24,687 usually the chips get transferred 714 00:32:24,687 --> 00:32:26,270 from the small stack to the big stacks 715 00:32:26,270 --> 00:32:28,670 because the big stacks have more license 716 00:32:28,670 --> 00:32:34,040 to go all in first and bully people around. 717 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,520 So he takes this one down. 718 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,530 Next hand, we get jacks here. 719 00:32:39,530 --> 00:32:41,600 So Panpancrisy is actually short now even 720 00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:43,950 though he started the final table as the chip leader 721 00:32:43,950 --> 00:32:45,980 because he's lost a bunch of all-ins. 722 00:32:45,980 --> 00:32:48,890 He gets an all-in here, and we hold against a 6. 723 00:32:51,670 --> 00:32:53,800 So there's actually an interesting play here. 724 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,370 I don't think he should have done it. 725 00:32:55,370 --> 00:32:58,330 But this is actually often a good ICM play. 726 00:32:58,330 --> 00:33:02,157 So normally I would say in this situation, 727 00:33:02,157 --> 00:33:04,240 if you have a good hand, just go all in because he 728 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:05,470 knows I'm going to call. 729 00:33:05,470 --> 00:33:07,450 So when ace-6, he just went all in. 730 00:33:07,450 --> 00:33:11,110 But often there's this play called the stop-and-go, which 731 00:33:11,110 --> 00:33:12,597 is in practice not very good. 732 00:33:12,597 --> 00:33:14,180 I don't think it would have been here, 733 00:33:14,180 --> 00:33:16,060 but it's an interesting theoretical concept, 734 00:33:16,060 --> 00:33:19,570 which is instead of going on, he just calls, OK? 735 00:33:19,570 --> 00:33:22,780 He calls, and then he basically blindly 736 00:33:22,780 --> 00:33:25,140 goes all in on the flop. 737 00:33:25,140 --> 00:33:26,950 He doesn't actually have to, but this 738 00:33:26,950 --> 00:33:28,144 is what players used to do. 739 00:33:28,144 --> 00:33:29,560 And you can do this in live poker. 740 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,143 What you would do in this situation is 741 00:33:31,143 --> 00:33:34,020 you would say, call, and before the dealer even deals the flop, 742 00:33:34,020 --> 00:33:35,380 you would just say, all in. 743 00:33:35,380 --> 00:33:36,760 And this is a legal play. 744 00:33:40,420 --> 00:33:42,600 The point is essentially-- it's an ICM. 745 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,340 The justification, which I think is mostly wrong but still 746 00:33:45,340 --> 00:33:50,770 interesting, is he wants to maximize 747 00:33:50,770 --> 00:33:52,150 the chances that I fold. 748 00:33:52,150 --> 00:33:54,500 So essentially, OK, this is strictly better, right? 749 00:33:54,500 --> 00:33:59,170 Sorry, the fact that he would call, let me see the flop, 750 00:33:59,170 --> 00:34:01,570 and then I get to decide whether to put the remaining 751 00:34:01,570 --> 00:34:04,600 chips in sounds like it should be better for me 752 00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,120 than me having to put all the chips in preflop. 753 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:08,620 But the main reason why he does this 754 00:34:08,620 --> 00:34:13,420 is because he wants me to have an opportunity to fold my cards 755 00:34:13,420 --> 00:34:15,940 and avoid getting in a situation where both of us 756 00:34:15,940 --> 00:34:18,290 are playing for our entire stack. 757 00:34:18,290 --> 00:34:20,639 So this is the justification for it. 758 00:34:20,639 --> 00:34:23,590 So even though you're giving your opponent more information, 759 00:34:23,590 --> 00:34:25,210 you're also decreasing the chances 760 00:34:25,210 --> 00:34:27,670 that they decide to call to the river card 761 00:34:27,670 --> 00:34:30,370 and have more chances of beating you. 762 00:34:30,370 --> 00:34:32,510 So that justification is correct, 763 00:34:32,510 --> 00:34:34,600 but it's just that if you've crunched the numbers, 764 00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,330 usually this situation won't be favorable enough. 765 00:34:37,330 --> 00:34:39,730 And usually you don't want to be giving your opponent 766 00:34:39,730 --> 00:34:42,820 that extra information. 767 00:34:42,820 --> 00:34:44,965 OK, so finally someone busts. 768 00:34:48,166 --> 00:34:49,860 We get jacks off again. 769 00:34:49,860 --> 00:34:53,520 So here normally I think I would often consider calling this, 770 00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,530 but I think just avoid-- so now the stacks are even-- 771 00:34:56,530 --> 00:34:58,770 we're the chip leader but not by a ton-- 772 00:34:58,770 --> 00:35:01,620 and I don't really want to get in a big pot here. 773 00:35:01,620 --> 00:35:04,156 So I decide to give it to them, even though normally I 774 00:35:04,156 --> 00:35:05,280 would definitely call this. 775 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:10,200 King-7 suited. 776 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,660 I make a pretty big all-in for 21 and 1/2 bets 777 00:35:12,660 --> 00:35:14,090 from the small blind. 778 00:35:14,090 --> 00:35:15,180 And take it down. 779 00:35:19,810 --> 00:35:23,760 All right, we'll see all the hands. 780 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,220 We fold 6-3 suited here. 781 00:35:26,220 --> 00:35:28,890 BeMySponsor decided to raise small, which 782 00:35:28,890 --> 00:35:30,340 is, once again, a bit unusual. 783 00:35:30,340 --> 00:35:33,030 You usually just want to go all in in a situation where 784 00:35:33,030 --> 00:35:35,000 ICM is so relevant. 785 00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:36,250 And then Nicholas goes all in. 786 00:35:36,250 --> 00:35:37,040 And he folds. 787 00:35:43,170 --> 00:35:44,220 Jack-5 offsuit. 788 00:35:44,220 --> 00:35:45,439 Here we fold. 789 00:35:45,439 --> 00:35:46,980 So once again, this guy raises small. 790 00:35:46,980 --> 00:35:50,940 So maybe he doesn't really want to do this ICM thing 791 00:35:50,940 --> 00:35:53,799 and just he wants to play pots. 792 00:35:53,799 --> 00:35:55,090 He takes that one down, though. 793 00:35:58,381 --> 00:36:00,630 Nicholas Brody-- so as you can see, it's a bit boring. 794 00:36:00,630 --> 00:36:01,963 There's not too many hands here. 795 00:36:01,963 --> 00:36:06,330 That's what happens with there's ICM because you don't really 796 00:36:06,330 --> 00:36:07,260 want to splash around. 797 00:36:07,260 --> 00:36:09,390 You just want to survive in the tournament 798 00:36:09,390 --> 00:36:11,910 by risking all your chips once in a while 799 00:36:11,910 --> 00:36:16,980 instead of slowly bleeding your chips in a variety of pots. 800 00:36:16,980 --> 00:36:20,090 So once again, queen-9 suited, big all in. 801 00:36:20,090 --> 00:36:22,390 Plenty good enough. 802 00:36:22,390 --> 00:36:24,710 Queen-7 suited, I decide to raise it up. 803 00:36:24,710 --> 00:36:28,770 But unfortunately, I guess, even if just one guy went all in, 804 00:36:28,770 --> 00:36:30,210 I'm clearly folding. 805 00:36:30,210 --> 00:36:31,650 So they both go all in. 806 00:36:31,650 --> 00:36:35,340 And ace-king beats kings, which is really bad news for everyone 807 00:36:35,340 --> 00:36:37,300 essentially because if kings held, 808 00:36:37,300 --> 00:36:38,400 then he would have busted. 809 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,665 But unfortunately he doesn't. 810 00:36:43,310 --> 00:36:46,544 So pocket 8s, I'm raising here. 811 00:36:46,544 --> 00:36:48,460 This would have been a gross spot, by the way. 812 00:36:48,460 --> 00:36:52,449 I think if BeMySponsor went on here, 813 00:36:52,449 --> 00:36:53,990 I don't know what it would have done. 814 00:36:53,990 --> 00:36:57,370 it would have been very gross because on one hand, 815 00:36:57,370 --> 00:36:59,590 I definitely don't want to be folding a hand as good 816 00:36:59,590 --> 00:37:00,860 as pocket 8s. 817 00:37:00,860 --> 00:37:03,460 But on the other hand, ICM is just so relevant, 818 00:37:03,460 --> 00:37:05,180 I think I probably have to fold. 819 00:37:05,180 --> 00:37:09,805 So yeah, this is a case where I could've made an extreme, 820 00:37:09,805 --> 00:37:11,290 a hero fold essentially. 821 00:37:11,290 --> 00:37:14,300 I folded a very good hand if BeMySponsor went all in. 822 00:37:19,060 --> 00:37:21,130 So king-jack off-- you get another walk. 823 00:37:24,490 --> 00:37:28,955 OK, jack-10 off. 824 00:37:28,955 --> 00:37:31,330 I'll tell you what happened, and then we'll take a break. 825 00:37:31,330 --> 00:37:32,230 And then I'll analyze it after. 826 00:37:32,230 --> 00:37:34,188 This hand I want to analyze in a bit more depth 827 00:37:34,188 --> 00:37:36,300 because I was actually surprised going 828 00:37:36,300 --> 00:37:38,500 through the replays looking at how I played this. 829 00:37:38,500 --> 00:37:43,180 So LPMBox makes it 16,000. 830 00:37:43,180 --> 00:37:50,920 And I reraise to 44,444, so essentially I think this-- 831 00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:52,330 I don't have a great hand. 832 00:37:52,330 --> 00:37:56,080 But I think this hand is too good not to make a bluff with. 833 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:57,890 So I do that. 834 00:37:57,890 --> 00:37:59,470 And then he goes all in. 835 00:37:59,470 --> 00:38:01,480 And then I think this is a very tough spot 836 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,530 because my hand isn't good. 837 00:38:03,530 --> 00:38:06,780 But when I reraise, I definitely had the-- 838 00:38:06,780 --> 00:38:08,630 if this guy had fewer chips, I would 839 00:38:08,630 --> 00:38:09,880 have just went all in myself. 840 00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,025 I definitely didn't reraise to this size 841 00:38:12,025 --> 00:38:16,850 thinking I would even consider folding if he moved on. 842 00:38:16,850 --> 00:38:18,610 So yeah, the reason I made this size 843 00:38:18,610 --> 00:38:21,160 is so that if this guy went all in, I could fold. 844 00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:25,769 But as it turns out, he folded, and he went all in. 845 00:38:25,769 --> 00:38:27,560 So let's analyze this hand after the break. 846 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,136 We'll take a short two-three minute break. 847 00:38:30,136 --> 00:38:31,611 OK, I'll get started again. 848 00:38:31,611 --> 00:38:33,110 So OK, so let's calculate this hand. 849 00:38:33,110 --> 00:38:36,430 So I actually decided to go back and calculate this hand 850 00:38:36,430 --> 00:38:39,820 from an ICM perspective because ICM is basically very relevant 851 00:38:39,820 --> 00:38:40,864 here. 852 00:38:40,864 --> 00:38:43,030 OK, so let's see exactly how to do this in practice. 853 00:38:48,100 --> 00:38:50,440 OK, so let's first do the chip EV calculation, OK? 854 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:55,450 Let me first do the chip EV calculation. 855 00:38:55,450 --> 00:38:58,100 You can trust that I copied the numbers correctly. 856 00:38:58,100 --> 00:39:00,430 So essentially there's three possibilities, OK? 857 00:39:00,430 --> 00:39:03,377 There is if I fold, this is the amount of chips. 858 00:39:03,377 --> 00:39:04,960 This is the amount of chips I'll have. 859 00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:06,880 OK, so right now I'm only caring about chips. 860 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,400 So if I fold, this is the amount of chips I'll have. 861 00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,947 If I call and win, this is the number of chips I'll have. 862 00:39:11,947 --> 00:39:14,530 And if I call and lose, this is the amount of chips I'll have. 863 00:39:14,530 --> 00:39:20,110 So we could basically do a calculation here where I do 864 00:39:20,110 --> 00:39:22,590 essentially it's-- so let's say my chances of winning is x. 865 00:39:26,860 --> 00:39:31,300 So it's x times how many chips I have if I call and lose, 866 00:39:31,300 --> 00:39:32,920 which is 107-- 867 00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:34,840 I'm going to not write the last three zeros-- 868 00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:40,798 plus 1 minus x times 402. 869 00:39:40,798 --> 00:39:42,006 Sorry, I did this in reverse. 870 00:39:42,006 --> 00:39:44,415 OK, x is my chances of losing. 871 00:39:44,415 --> 00:39:45,790 So again, I'm basically comparing 872 00:39:45,790 --> 00:39:49,810 this number versus how many chips I have if I fold, OK? 873 00:39:49,810 --> 00:39:51,880 And then essentially I'm just solving for x. 874 00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,760 So the way I do it is I set these to be equal, 875 00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:56,320 and then I calculate x. 876 00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,600 And that's the breakeven x, which 877 00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:02,770 tells me what's the minimum equity I need against his range 878 00:40:02,770 --> 00:40:03,910 to call. 879 00:40:03,910 --> 00:40:04,670 So we can do that. 880 00:40:04,670 --> 00:40:06,440 So I think it turns out to be-- 881 00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:17,480 so this formula is equal to fold minus call over-- hang on-- 882 00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:18,200 I did it before. 883 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,950 OK, so this is easy. 884 00:40:20,950 --> 00:40:25,795 OK, so I Ctrl+Z, so essentially I had 2 to 1 odds, right? 885 00:40:25,795 --> 00:40:27,590 I had 2 to 1 odds, so it makes sense 886 00:40:27,590 --> 00:40:31,370 that I needed a 33% equity call. 887 00:40:31,370 --> 00:40:32,945 OK, so how do we do this side? 888 00:40:32,945 --> 00:40:35,180 These are essentially the ICM numbers. 889 00:40:35,180 --> 00:40:36,680 So essentially the way you calculate 890 00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:42,380 this is you Google ICM calculator, 891 00:40:42,380 --> 00:40:44,360 and then you just go to the first one. 892 00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:45,920 It's usually quite easy to find. 893 00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:47,840 OK, so it's a bit tricky because you have 894 00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:50,450 to put in the exact payouts. 895 00:40:50,450 --> 00:40:53,720 So I think at the time they were 18.5. 896 00:40:53,720 --> 00:40:56,040 This is all as a percentage of the total pot. 897 00:40:56,040 --> 00:41:00,680 So I forget exactly the numbers, but it was something like this. 898 00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,740 OK, and then you type in the four-- you type 899 00:41:02,740 --> 00:41:03,870 in the stack sizes. 900 00:41:03,870 --> 00:41:06,260 So it takes a bit of time and even 901 00:41:06,260 --> 00:41:09,560 if you're fast at this, if you conserve your entire time 902 00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,424 bank from the whole tournament for this one calculation, 903 00:41:12,424 --> 00:41:14,090 you'd probably have enough time to do it 904 00:41:14,090 --> 00:41:17,330 because you'll probably have like two or three minutes 905 00:41:17,330 --> 00:41:18,690 of time bank saved up. 906 00:41:18,690 --> 00:41:19,850 So you probably can do it. 907 00:41:19,850 --> 00:41:21,379 You have to essentially, right? 908 00:41:21,379 --> 00:41:22,670 So there's three possibilities. 909 00:41:22,670 --> 00:41:26,159 I have to calculate if I fold, not only how many chips I have 910 00:41:26,159 --> 00:41:27,700 but how many chips everyone else has. 911 00:41:27,700 --> 00:41:29,825 And then I take them in, and then I can essentially 912 00:41:29,825 --> 00:41:33,200 calculate the value of my stack in terms of as a fraction 913 00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:34,760 of the total money in the pot. 914 00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,580 And then similarly, I do it for the other two cases. 915 00:41:37,580 --> 00:41:39,320 And then I calculate the ICM numbers. 916 00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,680 And roughly speaking, this is my-- 917 00:41:44,630 --> 00:41:46,370 this is all normalized. 918 00:41:46,370 --> 00:41:52,590 This is roughly my dollar EV in each of these three scenarios. 919 00:41:52,590 --> 00:41:54,540 If I do the same calculation, I'll 920 00:41:54,540 --> 00:41:59,480 find that I actually need 39.6 equity. 921 00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,760 So far does the calculation make sense to everyone? 922 00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,380 I didn't do all the steps in practice, 923 00:42:03,380 --> 00:42:05,300 but I explained how to do all the steps. 924 00:42:05,300 --> 00:42:07,340 Yeah, if you're fast, it still takes 925 00:42:07,340 --> 00:42:09,270 like a minute-a minute and 1/2. 926 00:42:09,270 --> 00:42:12,652 But the last part is now we have to open Poker [INAUDIBLE].. 927 00:42:12,652 --> 00:42:15,440 And now we have to type in jack-10 offsuit. 928 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:19,450 And then we have to put him on the range. 929 00:42:19,450 --> 00:42:21,280 So OK, let's just put him on a-- 930 00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,450 OK, I suspect that I'm probably going 931 00:42:23,450 --> 00:42:30,940 to have to fold because 39.6% is quite a lot. 932 00:42:30,940 --> 00:42:36,170 I'm going to put him on the loosest range and see a 539.6. 933 00:42:36,170 --> 00:42:37,810 So let's say he's pretty loose. 934 00:42:37,810 --> 00:42:42,290 So he's willing to gamble with, let's say, pocket 4s plus-- 935 00:42:42,290 --> 00:42:44,840 I mean, another thing that's relevant 936 00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:48,920 here is I think it looks like he doesn't have fold equity. 937 00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,260 I don't think when he's going all in here 938 00:42:51,260 --> 00:42:53,390 he suspects that I'm ever folding. 939 00:42:53,390 --> 00:42:55,010 Or at least he probably thinks I'm 940 00:42:55,010 --> 00:42:58,170 calling him the overwhelming majority of the time. 941 00:42:58,170 --> 00:43:01,550 So I think he's rarely going to turn up a stone bluff like 8-7 942 00:43:01,550 --> 00:43:04,820 suited because of this. 943 00:43:04,820 --> 00:43:06,320 I would be very surprised if he ever 944 00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:10,970 had 8-7 suited unless he read into this 945 00:43:10,970 --> 00:43:14,510 and realized that I could actually fold some hands here, 946 00:43:14,510 --> 00:43:16,390 which maybe he did. 947 00:43:16,390 --> 00:43:19,380 I should give him enough credit. 948 00:43:19,380 --> 00:43:21,180 OK, let's just do something somewhat quick. 949 00:43:21,180 --> 00:43:25,160 Let's say he gets ace-8 offsuit, ace-5 suited 950 00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,030 plus, king-jack suited, king-queen off, and pocket 951 00:43:28,030 --> 00:43:29,100 4s plus. 952 00:43:29,100 --> 00:43:31,920 So that's 14.6% of hands. 953 00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:33,260 So let's do this. 954 00:43:33,260 --> 00:43:36,736 So against this we have 36% equity. 955 00:43:36,736 --> 00:43:37,610 So that's not enough. 956 00:43:37,610 --> 00:43:39,110 We need 39. 957 00:43:39,110 --> 00:43:42,260 Let's see how wide his range has to be for us to have 39. 958 00:43:42,260 --> 00:43:45,410 All right, let's say he gets in with 20% of hands, 959 00:43:45,410 --> 00:43:49,316 which is quite a lot, which is, I think, way too much. 960 00:43:49,316 --> 00:43:53,490 Let's say 18.6 percent of hands. 961 00:43:53,490 --> 00:43:55,550 Oh, we actually have worse against this range 962 00:43:55,550 --> 00:43:58,174 because it has-- oops-- because it has more hands that dominate 963 00:43:58,174 --> 00:44:00,630 us because I put in a lot of hands like king-10 964 00:44:00,630 --> 00:44:02,990 and removed a lot of the hands like ace-4. 965 00:44:02,990 --> 00:44:07,000 So basically OK, you can play with it however you want. 966 00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,530 But I think it's hard to play with it in a way 967 00:44:09,530 --> 00:44:13,350 to give yourself 39% equity unless you 968 00:44:13,350 --> 00:44:16,970 were very optimistic about how wide his range was. 969 00:44:16,970 --> 00:44:20,510 So in either case, so at the time I did fold. 970 00:44:20,510 --> 00:44:23,240 And it looks weird to me at first, but after analyzing it, 971 00:44:23,240 --> 00:44:25,400 I think this is definitely the right play 972 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:27,530 if you take into account ICM. 973 00:44:27,530 --> 00:44:29,900 So I think it's a good example of ICM 974 00:44:29,900 --> 00:44:33,260 because if you remember when we were playing with it, 975 00:44:33,260 --> 00:44:38,510 our equity was always essentially between 33 and 39. 976 00:44:38,510 --> 00:44:42,080 If we put them on a looser range, our equity would be 37. 977 00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:45,110 And if we put them on a tighter ranger, our equity would be 34. 978 00:44:45,110 --> 00:44:48,920 But basically it's a situation where I would always 979 00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:52,820 call if ICM was not relevant and always fold 980 00:44:52,820 --> 00:44:55,640 if ICM was relevant. 981 00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,980 And this isn't even a case where it looks like ICM 982 00:44:57,980 --> 00:45:00,315 should be that relevant. 983 00:45:00,315 --> 00:45:01,550 Yeah, so we do fold. 984 00:45:01,550 --> 00:45:04,740 So with hindsight, maybe my initial strategy was wrong. 985 00:45:04,740 --> 00:45:07,070 Maybe I should have should not have even bluffed here. 986 00:45:07,070 --> 00:45:09,250 Maybe I should have just folded in the first place. 987 00:45:09,250 --> 00:45:10,291 That's a different story. 988 00:45:10,291 --> 00:45:12,569 But given that I did bluff, I think 989 00:45:12,569 --> 00:45:14,110 the best thing I can do here is fold. 990 00:45:17,130 --> 00:45:20,970 OK, let me just jump back to the PowerPoint for a bit. 991 00:45:20,970 --> 00:45:22,620 So I just want to talk about a bit more 992 00:45:22,620 --> 00:45:26,700 about this theory of satellites and going all in first. 993 00:45:26,700 --> 00:45:30,435 So in game theory, this is called the traffic intersection 994 00:45:30,435 --> 00:45:31,230 game. 995 00:45:31,230 --> 00:45:34,200 So ICM does not say, play tighter. 996 00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:37,140 It allows you to play looser if you can go all in first. 997 00:45:37,140 --> 00:45:39,060 So this is where I actually think 998 00:45:39,060 --> 00:45:41,430 it's very interesting because in satellites, you 999 00:45:41,430 --> 00:45:42,870 want to be under the gun. 1000 00:45:42,870 --> 00:45:45,530 So normally in poker, that's the worst position because you've 1001 00:45:45,530 --> 00:45:46,770 got to act first. 1002 00:45:46,770 --> 00:45:49,260 Everyone else gets to act after you. 1003 00:45:49,260 --> 00:45:51,420 But in satellites, basically you just 1004 00:45:51,420 --> 00:45:54,600 want to be the first person to be able to threaten, say, look, 1005 00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:55,890 I'm putting all my chips in. 1006 00:45:55,890 --> 00:45:58,320 You pretty much have to fold. 1007 00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,260 So in satellites, let's say there's 11 people left, 1008 00:46:01,260 --> 00:46:02,780 and 10 people get a seat. 1009 00:46:02,780 --> 00:46:04,680 If you go on, no one can call you 1010 00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:08,760 even if they have aces because to call you, 1011 00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:10,920 they essentially need to be more than 10/11 1012 00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:12,854 sure that they're going to win the hand. 1013 00:46:12,854 --> 00:46:14,270 And even if they have pocket aces, 1014 00:46:14,270 --> 00:46:16,410 they're not going to be 10/11 sure that they're 1015 00:46:16,410 --> 00:46:17,460 going to win the hand. 1016 00:46:17,460 --> 00:46:22,880 So basically going all in first is very, very good. 1017 00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:24,930 So it's called the traffic interception game 1018 00:46:24,930 --> 00:46:26,880 because you can imagine the situation where 1019 00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,420 there's two cars trying to pass each other at an intersection. 1020 00:46:30,420 --> 00:46:34,200 And you want to save time, get there first. 1021 00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:37,140 But you're worried that the other guy might crash. 1022 00:46:37,140 --> 00:46:38,932 Both players really want to avoid disaster, 1023 00:46:38,932 --> 00:46:40,681 but both players really want to be the guy 1024 00:46:40,681 --> 00:46:41,710 to get through first. 1025 00:46:41,710 --> 00:46:44,850 Well, if you can act first, and if you just tell the guy, look, 1026 00:46:44,850 --> 00:46:46,650 I'm closing my eyes. 1027 00:46:46,650 --> 00:46:47,640 I'm tying up my hands. 1028 00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:50,110 I cannot stop my car, OK? 1029 00:46:50,110 --> 00:46:52,770 I'm just going to go through the intersection no matter what. 1030 00:46:52,770 --> 00:46:55,050 If you're the first person to be able to do this, then 1031 00:46:55,050 --> 00:46:56,880 the other guy, he's like, OK, I guess 1032 00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,250 I've got to stop my car now and let you go first. 1033 00:46:59,250 --> 00:47:00,960 That's essentially what it's like. 1034 00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:03,870 If you're the first person to go all in and you've already said, 1035 00:47:03,870 --> 00:47:05,700 look, I'm all in, and there's nothing 1036 00:47:05,700 --> 00:47:08,599 I can do to take my chips back, then the other guy is like, 1037 00:47:08,599 --> 00:47:09,890 all right, I guess I'll follow. 1038 00:47:09,890 --> 00:47:11,220 And you can win the blinds. 1039 00:47:11,220 --> 00:47:13,290 So it's sort of how it works. 1040 00:47:13,290 --> 00:47:15,520 Of course, some opponents are not rational. 1041 00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:16,952 If you do this enough times, they 1042 00:47:16,952 --> 00:47:18,690 might be like, OK, screw this. 1043 00:47:18,690 --> 00:47:22,220 I'm just going to kill this guy and speed up. 1044 00:47:22,220 --> 00:47:25,481 So it's a bit weird, and in practice, this happens a lot, 1045 00:47:25,481 --> 00:47:25,980 too. 1046 00:47:25,980 --> 00:47:29,100 I've definitely had very bad situations where 1047 00:47:29,100 --> 00:47:31,440 I'm going all in with any two cards, 1048 00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:34,770 and I know this is a game theoretically optimal strategy. 1049 00:47:34,770 --> 00:47:36,810 But my opponents are sped up. 1050 00:47:36,810 --> 00:47:39,910 And then he calls me with ace-jack or something. 1051 00:47:39,910 --> 00:47:41,410 And then I'll have jack-2 offsuited. 1052 00:47:41,410 --> 00:47:43,201 And he looks like a genius, and he beats me 1053 00:47:43,201 --> 00:47:45,262 when his play is just terrible basically. 1054 00:47:45,262 --> 00:47:45,762 Yeah? 1055 00:47:45,762 --> 00:47:47,053 AUDIENCE: Yeah, so interesting. 1056 00:47:47,053 --> 00:47:49,590 So does it matter if, say, you're under the gun, 1057 00:47:49,590 --> 00:47:50,976 and you're in the low stack. 1058 00:47:50,976 --> 00:47:52,085 Can you do this? 1059 00:47:52,085 --> 00:47:52,710 WILL MA: Right. 1060 00:47:52,710 --> 00:47:53,960 So the stack size does matter. 1061 00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,190 So I'm assuming if everyone had the same stack size 1062 00:47:56,190 --> 00:47:58,350 in that extreme example, where I said 1063 00:47:58,350 --> 00:47:59,910 other people should fold aces, I'm 1064 00:47:59,910 --> 00:48:01,890 assuming everyone has the same stack size. 1065 00:48:01,890 --> 00:48:05,150 AUDIENCE: I guess where's the balance between knocking you 1066 00:48:05,150 --> 00:48:07,850 out versus the chips differential? 1067 00:48:07,850 --> 00:48:09,300 WILL MA: Right, exactly. 1068 00:48:09,300 --> 00:48:10,680 So the reason, in that case where 1069 00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:13,510 it's correct to fold aces, is because let's say 1070 00:48:13,510 --> 00:48:15,150 they call and knock me out. 1071 00:48:15,150 --> 00:48:18,090 It doesn't help them that much because first place 1072 00:48:18,090 --> 00:48:22,320 in a satellite does not get paid any more than 10th place. 1073 00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,375 But in real tournaments, you basically 1074 00:48:24,375 --> 00:48:27,410 never fold aces because even if you're 1075 00:48:27,410 --> 00:48:30,040 risking losing all your money, just first place 1076 00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,150 will be hire than second place by enough. 1077 00:48:32,150 --> 00:48:34,830 And winning with those aces will increases your chances 1078 00:48:34,830 --> 00:48:38,740 of coming first by so much that you should just gamble anyway. 1079 00:48:38,740 --> 00:48:40,030 So this is only in satellites. 1080 00:48:40,030 --> 00:48:44,479 Yeah, please don't fold aces in like a normal poker tournament. 1081 00:48:44,479 --> 00:48:44,978 Yeah? 1082 00:48:44,978 --> 00:48:47,705 AUDIENCE: If you're a short stack in a satellite or one 1083 00:48:47,705 --> 00:48:51,120 of the shorter stacks, does going all in still make sense? 1084 00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:54,530 Because people can call you without risking a tournament. 1085 00:48:54,530 --> 00:48:55,530 WILL MA: Right, exactly. 1086 00:48:55,530 --> 00:48:58,380 So in that case, you actually need a good had to go all in. 1087 00:48:58,380 --> 00:49:00,250 You actually need to have positive chip EV 1088 00:49:00,250 --> 00:49:01,500 as well to go all in. 1089 00:49:01,500 --> 00:49:05,440 Yeah, so that's why when ICM is relevant, the small stacks win. 1090 00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,322 And the big-- sorry, the small stacks lose. 1091 00:49:07,322 --> 00:49:08,280 And the big stacks win. 1092 00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:10,140 Because the big stacks have more license 1093 00:49:10,140 --> 00:49:14,850 to bully small sacks around, whereas the small stacks can't 1094 00:49:14,850 --> 00:49:16,995 because the big stacks can call at them more often. 1095 00:49:16,995 --> 00:49:20,250 AUDIENCE: And also does it matter if other people have 1096 00:49:20,250 --> 00:49:21,810 raised behind you? 1097 00:49:21,810 --> 00:49:25,026 Does it just matter who goes all in first? 1098 00:49:25,026 --> 00:49:27,690 WILL MA: So if someone's already raised, 1099 00:49:27,690 --> 00:49:31,170 then it's more likely you going all in-- 1100 00:49:31,170 --> 00:49:32,790 it's more likely they are already 1101 00:49:32,790 --> 00:49:35,920 committed so that if you go all in, they won't fold. 1102 00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:38,354 So that is relevant, yeah. 1103 00:49:38,354 --> 00:49:41,470 OK, and cool. 1104 00:49:41,470 --> 00:49:42,570 Right, so exactly. 1105 00:49:42,570 --> 00:49:44,140 So in practice, it's very tricky. 1106 00:49:44,140 --> 00:49:45,515 And in fact, it can be beneficial 1107 00:49:45,515 --> 00:49:47,931 if you can somehow convince your opponents that you're not 1108 00:49:47,931 --> 00:49:48,570 rational. 1109 00:49:48,570 --> 00:49:50,278 I've never personally done this, but I've 1110 00:49:50,278 --> 00:49:53,340 heard of people making a bad call sometimes in a satellite 1111 00:49:53,340 --> 00:49:56,600 just so people know not to mess with him essentially. 1112 00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:59,340 But I mean it's a bit weird. 1113 00:49:59,340 --> 00:50:01,500 There is this weird metagame with this traffic 1114 00:50:01,500 --> 00:50:03,660 intersection-type game, although this 1115 00:50:03,660 --> 00:50:07,050 is only relevant in the most extreme ICM situations, which 1116 00:50:07,050 --> 00:50:10,670 are satellites. 1117 00:50:10,670 --> 00:50:12,570 Actually, I should say, one scenario 1118 00:50:12,570 --> 00:50:15,300 where I think you could consider folding aces 1119 00:50:15,300 --> 00:50:18,850 preflop in a normal tournament is actually this. 1120 00:50:18,850 --> 00:50:20,780 Let's say there's 55 until-- 1121 00:50:20,780 --> 00:50:23,070 let's say 54 get paid. 1122 00:50:23,070 --> 00:50:24,290 And there's 55 left. 1123 00:50:24,290 --> 00:50:26,045 And you've got one chip, and everyone else 1124 00:50:26,045 --> 00:50:27,440 has thousands of chips. 1125 00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:29,754 And you know that someone else has already 1126 00:50:29,754 --> 00:50:30,920 gotten eliminated that hand. 1127 00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,920 So if you fold, you're guaranteed to get in the money. 1128 00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:35,750 Then I would definitely fold aces 1129 00:50:35,750 --> 00:50:38,450 because even if you win in double up, congratulations, 1130 00:50:38,450 --> 00:50:40,790 you now have 10 chips instead of one chip. 1131 00:50:40,790 --> 00:50:43,160 Everyone still has thousands of chips. 1132 00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:46,400 There are cases where you could construct an extreme case where 1133 00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:48,510 you should fold aces preflop in a tournament, 1134 00:50:48,510 --> 00:50:51,601 in a normal tournament as well. 1135 00:50:51,601 --> 00:50:56,260 OK, so let's get back to the tournament now. 1136 00:50:56,260 --> 00:50:57,500 OK, where were we? 1137 00:50:57,500 --> 00:51:01,730 So we lost a bunch of chips here. 1138 00:51:01,730 --> 00:51:05,205 So the next hand we get king-8 offsuit. 1139 00:51:05,205 --> 00:51:07,880 I raise from the button. 1140 00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:09,390 So we are committed here. 1141 00:51:09,390 --> 00:51:12,410 It sucks because our hand sucks, but it's way too 1142 00:51:12,410 --> 00:51:14,180 good odds to call. 1143 00:51:14,180 --> 00:51:16,060 And ICM is nowhere near that relevant 1144 00:51:16,060 --> 00:51:17,870 when it's against the small stack. 1145 00:51:17,870 --> 00:51:19,710 It's the guy you're trying to eliminate. 1146 00:51:19,710 --> 00:51:20,210 So we call. 1147 00:51:20,210 --> 00:51:23,540 We get pretty lucky here. 1148 00:51:23,540 --> 00:51:27,140 Good redemption for that terrible jack-10 hand 1149 00:51:27,140 --> 00:51:27,830 played by me. 1150 00:51:27,830 --> 00:51:30,320 OK, so there's three players left. 1151 00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:32,300 So ICM is still very relevant. 1152 00:51:32,300 --> 00:51:33,820 We're the second stack. 1153 00:51:33,820 --> 00:51:38,420 So we're trying not to get in a big all-in with this guy, 1154 00:51:38,420 --> 00:51:42,020 although it's less significant because this guy still 1155 00:51:42,020 --> 00:51:43,400 has a decent amount of chips. 1156 00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:45,290 If this guy only had 50,000 chips, 1157 00:51:45,290 --> 00:51:47,930 then I would try a lot harder to avoid getting 1158 00:51:47,930 --> 00:51:51,080 in a big pot with BeMySponsor. 1159 00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:52,260 So-- oops. 1160 00:51:52,260 --> 00:51:56,100 So yeah, so he raises, and LPMBox goes all in, 1161 00:51:56,100 --> 00:51:56,960 takes it down. 1162 00:52:00,380 --> 00:52:03,230 So this hand, he makes it 3x. 1163 00:52:03,230 --> 00:52:07,250 And I decide to call it here with queen-6 suited, which 1164 00:52:07,250 --> 00:52:08,450 is gutsy I think. 1165 00:52:08,450 --> 00:52:11,810 But I think it's in position, and it's fairly deep. 1166 00:52:11,810 --> 00:52:14,967 And being able to put ICM pressure on him is reasonable. 1167 00:52:14,967 --> 00:52:16,550 I think it could have gone either way. 1168 00:52:18,969 --> 00:52:20,510 Folding is definitely the safer play, 1169 00:52:20,510 --> 00:52:24,890 but queen-6 suited is plenty good enough here. 1170 00:52:24,890 --> 00:52:25,910 So I call. 1171 00:52:25,910 --> 00:52:27,334 He just checks. 1172 00:52:27,334 --> 00:52:29,000 He might just be giving up on this board 1173 00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:32,150 where there's a decent amount of-- it's fairly dry, right? 1174 00:52:32,150 --> 00:52:35,245 So from what I said last class, if the board is fairly dry, 1175 00:52:35,245 --> 00:52:38,360 where every hand has something, if you've got absolutely 1176 00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:40,310 nothing, then there's not even much 1177 00:52:40,310 --> 00:52:43,910 point to make a bluff like if he's got ace-2 offsuit here. 1178 00:52:43,910 --> 00:52:47,030 So he just checks in, and I bet, and he folds. 1179 00:52:47,030 --> 00:52:51,710 So he probably had ace-2 offsuit some hand like that. 1180 00:52:51,710 --> 00:52:53,800 Next hand we get ace-king. 1181 00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:56,090 I decide to raise small here once again. 1182 00:52:56,090 --> 00:53:00,680 So I guess this protects that jack-10 hand. 1183 00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:02,180 If I'm doing this with jack-10, I 1184 00:53:02,180 --> 00:53:04,970 do need to do it with good hands as well to protect 1185 00:53:04,970 --> 00:53:07,520 the times I do have jack-10. 1186 00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:09,630 Unfortunately, he guesses correctly. 1187 00:53:09,630 --> 00:53:11,560 He doesn't fold, and I have jack-10 and folds. 1188 00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:12,393 And I have ace-king. 1189 00:53:14,590 --> 00:53:16,400 So he still take that one downs. 1190 00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:18,890 And we win the blinds the next hand again. 1191 00:53:18,890 --> 00:53:22,730 So suddenly we're worried chip leader by a decent margin 1192 00:53:22,730 --> 00:53:25,430 after those three hands. 1193 00:53:25,430 --> 00:53:30,730 9-4 off-- I'm not going to call, so fold to him. 1194 00:53:30,730 --> 00:53:33,060 So jack-7, so once again, because of ICM, 1195 00:53:33,060 --> 00:53:35,690 this guy just goes all in knowing we can't call that 1196 00:53:35,690 --> 00:53:36,670 much. 1197 00:53:36,670 --> 00:53:39,210 Takes it down. 1198 00:53:39,210 --> 00:53:41,570 7-6 offsuit, I decide to fold. 1199 00:53:41,570 --> 00:53:44,450 I think that's very reasonable considering they can just 1200 00:53:44,450 --> 00:53:45,650 go all in on top of that. 1201 00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:50,830 Queen-9, queen-9 off, get a walk. 1202 00:53:50,830 --> 00:53:52,330 So one thing I should pay attention 1203 00:53:52,330 --> 00:53:54,340 is I do think these guys-- 1204 00:53:54,340 --> 00:53:56,680 by now I've collected enough data points 1205 00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,180 of getting a walk way more often than I should, 1206 00:53:59,180 --> 00:54:01,790 where I think it's not just a coincidence. 1207 00:54:01,790 --> 00:54:05,200 I'm statistically confident enough that they're actually 1208 00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:06,610 just giving me too many walks. 1209 00:54:06,610 --> 00:54:09,120 So when they don't give me a walk, 1210 00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:11,470 I should put them on a stronger range of hands 1211 00:54:11,470 --> 00:54:14,080 than I normally do. 1212 00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:16,080 Pocket 10s, we three-bet this guy again. 1213 00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:17,110 He gets away again. 1214 00:54:19,950 --> 00:54:22,317 So 6-2 off, so we've gotten dealt good cards 1215 00:54:22,317 --> 00:54:24,650 even though we haven't gotten too much action from them. 1216 00:54:24,650 --> 00:54:28,000 We're still winning by two chips from getting good cards. 1217 00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,120 So jack-4 off, I'm going to fold to this guy. 1218 00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:34,930 So as you can see, it's fairly boring, 1219 00:54:34,930 --> 00:54:38,860 but I think this is what essentially 1220 00:54:38,860 --> 00:54:43,000 should happen in the final couple of people 1221 00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:44,280 left in the tournament. 1222 00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:50,860 Ace-10 off, so I decide to not go all in here. 1223 00:54:50,860 --> 00:54:52,915 I guess that would be 27 big-- 1224 00:54:52,915 --> 00:54:56,420 26 and a 1/2 big blinds, which is a bit much. 1225 00:54:56,420 --> 00:54:59,650 So I decided to just raise small. 1226 00:54:59,650 --> 00:55:03,460 If he three-bets, if he reraises to, say, 60,000, 1227 00:55:03,460 --> 00:55:05,680 I'm always going all in here. 1228 00:55:05,680 --> 00:55:10,540 If he goes all in himself, I'm basically not folding 1229 00:55:10,540 --> 00:55:13,417 even though it sucks from an ICM point of view. 1230 00:55:13,417 --> 00:55:15,250 I think ace-10 offsuit is just way too good. 1231 00:55:15,250 --> 00:55:19,330 So I'm essentially just raising small looking for action here. 1232 00:55:19,330 --> 00:55:19,960 He folds. 1233 00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:25,540 7-2 offsuit, we raise-- no. 1234 00:55:25,540 --> 00:55:27,050 [LAUGHTER] 1235 00:55:27,050 --> 00:55:31,820 So LPMBox gets a walk. 1236 00:55:31,820 --> 00:55:34,620 Queen-3 off, we get another walk, which is nice. 1237 00:55:38,580 --> 00:55:42,630 Jack-5 off, I raise here, which is definitely 1238 00:55:42,630 --> 00:55:43,930 an exploitative play. 1239 00:55:43,930 --> 00:55:47,950 It's definitely not-- definitely from a Nash equilibrium optimal 1240 00:55:47,950 --> 00:55:50,890 play point of view, there's no way 1241 00:55:50,890 --> 00:55:53,780 the optimal strategy is to raise a fraction of hand 1242 00:55:53,780 --> 00:55:56,320 so big that it includes jack-5 offsuit. 1243 00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,200 But I think at the time, I probably 1244 00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:01,985 told myself, this guy was being overly scared. 1245 00:56:01,985 --> 00:56:04,450 Even though he was playing somewhat aggressive earlier on, 1246 00:56:04,450 --> 00:56:07,870 he is maybe overadjusting for ICM 1247 00:56:07,870 --> 00:56:10,420 and is respecting me too much in the presence 1248 00:56:10,420 --> 00:56:12,610 of this short stack. 1249 00:56:12,610 --> 00:56:14,800 I can look at the HUD stats at the time, 1250 00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:18,580 although they won't be that accurate because they're 1251 00:56:18,580 --> 00:56:20,920 going to include all the hands. 1252 00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,460 So normally I do play with all these numbers on. 1253 00:56:24,460 --> 00:56:26,270 So we can see that his-- 1254 00:56:26,270 --> 00:56:28,090 yeah, but it's going to be biased 1255 00:56:28,090 --> 00:56:31,870 because this includes the hands with six 1256 00:56:31,870 --> 00:56:33,490 or seven people at the table. 1257 00:56:33,490 --> 00:56:38,860 But it says that he calls from the big blind only 20% 1258 00:56:38,860 --> 00:56:39,370 of the time. 1259 00:56:39,370 --> 00:56:41,882 But that's not a great-- 1260 00:56:41,882 --> 00:56:43,090 yeah, that's going to biased. 1261 00:56:43,090 --> 00:56:46,870 So it doesn't tell us too much. 1262 00:56:46,870 --> 00:56:48,929 But I guess at the time, I must have told myself 1263 00:56:48,929 --> 00:56:50,470 I'm going to try to exploit this guy. 1264 00:56:50,470 --> 00:56:53,080 That's the only way I can see why I decided 1265 00:56:53,080 --> 00:56:55,810 to raise jack-5 offsuit here. 1266 00:56:55,810 --> 00:56:56,740 So we get a call. 1267 00:56:56,740 --> 00:56:59,170 But I'm going to continuation bet. 1268 00:56:59,170 --> 00:57:01,300 We do have a backdoor heart draw, 1269 00:57:01,300 --> 00:57:04,300 and this is our best chance of just winning the pot. 1270 00:57:04,300 --> 00:57:06,970 And I could maybe barrel on-- 1271 00:57:06,970 --> 00:57:10,790 by barrel, I mean bet again as a bluff on a bunch of turns. 1272 00:57:10,790 --> 00:57:13,110 So I just bet here. 1273 00:57:13,110 --> 00:57:13,780 He does fold. 1274 00:57:17,950 --> 00:57:19,870 Next hand with queen-9, we open the button, 1275 00:57:19,870 --> 00:57:21,760 but we get shoved on. 1276 00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:23,440 And I guess we have to fold. 1277 00:57:27,670 --> 00:57:29,010 Queen-4, we get another walk. 1278 00:57:29,010 --> 00:57:30,843 Yes, so this is actually getting ridiculous. 1279 00:57:30,843 --> 00:57:32,950 It seems like we've literally gotten 1280 00:57:32,950 --> 00:57:34,510 five or six walks in a row. 1281 00:57:34,510 --> 00:57:40,000 And I would guess probably we should be getting a walk less-- 1282 00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,940 I guess at a three-handed table, it's more often but still 1283 00:57:42,940 --> 00:57:45,282 less than like 30% of the time. 1284 00:57:45,282 --> 00:57:45,781 Yeah? 1285 00:57:45,781 --> 00:57:47,406 AUDIENCE: Is it possible you're getting 1286 00:57:47,406 --> 00:57:51,030 walks because someone has raised your big blind 1287 00:57:51,030 --> 00:57:52,640 and you defended a lot? 1288 00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:55,005 And so they're scared to raise your big blind? 1289 00:57:55,005 --> 00:57:55,630 WILL MA: Maybe. 1290 00:57:55,630 --> 00:57:57,520 I have been fairly active. 1291 00:57:57,520 --> 00:57:58,960 But I did fold a bunch of-- 1292 00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:02,350 I did fold some borderline situations, though, 1293 00:58:02,350 --> 00:58:03,424 like this jack-- 1294 00:58:03,424 --> 00:58:04,840 I think it was a different jack-7. 1295 00:58:04,840 --> 00:58:06,814 But yeah, maybe. 1296 00:58:06,814 --> 00:58:07,480 That's possibly. 1297 00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:09,826 Yeah, very good point. 1298 00:58:09,826 --> 00:58:10,805 But that's good, right? 1299 00:58:10,805 --> 00:58:11,930 It's good that we're like-- 1300 00:58:11,930 --> 00:58:16,640 I'm not complaining that we're getting a lot of stuff. 1301 00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:20,470 And we are the big stack, so in general, it is harder for them 1302 00:58:20,470 --> 00:58:22,810 to bully us around than us to bully them around. 1303 00:58:22,810 --> 00:58:25,870 So it does make sense from that point of view, too. 1304 00:58:25,870 --> 00:58:27,905 I saw that it was just too many. 1305 00:58:27,905 --> 00:58:29,280 Anyway, so I just continue trying 1306 00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:32,230 to raise a lot, especially against this guy. 1307 00:58:32,230 --> 00:58:35,420 So jack-8 offsuit, we take it down. 1308 00:58:35,420 --> 00:58:37,420 Jack-2, maybe we could have folded. 1309 00:58:37,420 --> 00:58:39,940 But by now this guy was getting short enough. 1310 00:58:39,940 --> 00:58:42,760 He's blinded down from 15 and 1/2 big blinds, 1311 00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:44,530 I think, to 13 and 1/2. 1312 00:58:44,530 --> 00:58:46,570 He might have had more before, like 17. 1313 00:58:46,570 --> 00:58:50,260 So he might be looking for a spot to shove now. 1314 00:58:50,260 --> 00:58:52,170 BeMySponsor actually raises a small here 1315 00:58:52,170 --> 00:58:53,710 and gets him to fold. 1316 00:58:57,895 --> 00:59:00,200 And jack-6 off here. 1317 00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:01,040 We get another walk. 1318 00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:02,790 I should just skip the hands on big blinds 1319 00:59:02,790 --> 00:59:07,660 since nothing ever happens, which is great for us. 1320 00:59:07,660 --> 00:59:10,810 So pocket 3s here, I just go all in. 1321 00:59:10,810 --> 00:59:14,700 So I talked about this before. 1322 00:59:14,700 --> 00:59:17,470 What's a problem with what this play in some sense? 1323 00:59:21,350 --> 00:59:23,800 AUDIENCE: Reverse implied odds? 1324 00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:24,860 WILL MA: Right, good. 1325 00:59:24,860 --> 00:59:27,900 So yeah, so if I don't do this, if I just raise small, 1326 00:59:27,900 --> 00:59:30,890 I have bad reverse implied odds, right? 1327 00:59:30,890 --> 00:59:34,140 But one particular issue is every other time 1328 00:59:34,140 --> 00:59:35,910 we've made it 25,000. 1329 00:59:35,910 --> 00:59:38,820 And really nothing's changed, and suddenly we go all in. 1330 00:59:38,820 --> 00:59:42,800 So it is a bit suspicious where he basically 1331 00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:46,440 knows we have a hand that has very bad reverse implied odds. 1332 00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:49,680 He basically knows we have pocket 3s or ace-4 offsuit 1333 00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:50,640 or something like that. 1334 00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:54,240 But it's still hard for him to exploit. 1335 00:59:54,240 --> 00:59:57,570 I mean sure, you can call ace-9 and exploit us, 1336 00:59:57,570 --> 01:00:00,090 but ace-9 is already a great hand. 1337 01:00:00,090 --> 01:00:02,370 Or you can call pocket 4s and exploit us, 1338 01:00:02,370 --> 01:00:06,000 but it's not that easy to get dealt pocket 4s or a better 1339 01:00:06,000 --> 01:00:07,970 pair than pocket 4s. 1340 01:00:07,970 --> 01:00:13,160 So here yeah, even though against a good player, he knows 1341 01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:15,990 my range is a very small specific number of hands. 1342 01:00:15,990 --> 01:00:17,630 It's still hard for him to-- 1343 01:00:17,630 --> 01:00:20,080 he can't really just call jack-10 suited here. 1344 01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:24,200 Maybe he can, but probably jack-9 suited or queen-7 1345 01:00:24,200 --> 01:00:27,810 suited he can't call because there's still 1346 01:00:27,810 --> 01:00:31,491 an off chance we have queen-9 offsuit or something. 1347 01:00:31,491 --> 01:00:32,750 Oops. 1348 01:00:32,750 --> 01:00:35,280 So anyway, so he does fold. 1349 01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:38,180 But it definitely raises suspicion. 1350 01:00:38,180 --> 01:00:42,415 Jack-10 off, so jack-10 off, we just go all in here. 1351 01:00:42,415 --> 01:00:44,410 So this is actually important. 1352 01:00:44,410 --> 01:00:46,770 So normally I would just raise from the button, 1353 01:00:46,770 --> 01:00:49,020 but by now, the big blind has gotten 1354 01:00:49,020 --> 01:00:51,870 so short that I'm willing to just go 1355 01:00:51,870 --> 01:00:55,350 all in because the big blind is short enough where even if he 1356 01:00:55,350 --> 01:00:57,450 picks up a hand and calls and beats me, 1357 01:00:57,450 --> 01:00:59,890 I'm still the chip leader, even if that happens. 1358 01:00:59,890 --> 01:01:03,880 So the ICM doesn't hurt me that much because-- 1359 01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:07,860 yeah, and also just the fact that I'm risking less. 1360 01:01:07,860 --> 01:01:10,500 The other important thing of the big blind getting short 1361 01:01:10,500 --> 01:01:14,160 is now the small blind is much less incentivized to gamble 1362 01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:15,240 than before. 1363 01:01:15,240 --> 01:01:18,840 Before, when the big blind had 180K, 1364 01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:21,120 he was incentivizing gambling against me 1365 01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:25,530 because it's not that easy to wait for the big blind to bust. 1366 01:01:25,530 --> 01:01:27,870 But now that the big blind only has 10K, 1367 01:01:27,870 --> 01:01:30,630 it's easier to just wait and hope that he busts. 1368 01:01:30,630 --> 01:01:34,710 So basically ICM becomes a lot more favorable in both cases. 1369 01:01:34,710 --> 01:01:39,060 And shoving, I think, is very good now with the stack sizes. 1370 01:01:39,060 --> 01:01:42,600 So we do shove, and we take it down. 1371 01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:45,690 9-2 off, so no one usually wants our blinds, 1372 01:01:45,690 --> 01:01:48,410 but then they both want our blinds. 1373 01:01:48,410 --> 01:01:49,760 LPMBox takes it down. 1374 01:01:53,480 --> 01:01:56,240 So ace-2, I just go all in here. 1375 01:01:56,240 --> 01:02:00,120 Basically same justification as the pocket 3s. 1376 01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:05,210 8-7 off, I think I probably should have raised this. 1377 01:02:05,210 --> 01:02:08,480 Even going all in honestly might not be that bad. 1378 01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:09,980 I'd have to do an exact calculation, 1379 01:02:09,980 --> 01:02:12,140 but I think probably-- 1380 01:02:12,140 --> 01:02:13,130 it's a pretty bad hand. 1381 01:02:13,130 --> 01:02:16,010 But I think probably I shouldn't be folding given 1382 01:02:16,010 --> 01:02:18,440 that I'm the big stack and given that they've both 1383 01:02:18,440 --> 01:02:20,240 been giving me lots of respect. 1384 01:02:20,240 --> 01:02:22,950 But I fold, which can be a big mistake. 1385 01:02:22,950 --> 01:02:26,500 But I think probably I shouldn't have folded. 1386 01:02:26,500 --> 01:02:29,370 The next hand, LPMBox goes all in, and we fold. 1387 01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:37,150 Next hand, we 8-7 suited, so by now, 1388 01:02:37,150 --> 01:02:40,080 this guy, BeMySponsor, so we've just won enough 1389 01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:42,610 pots where this guy is also short now. 1390 01:02:42,610 --> 01:02:45,590 So it's a pretty good situation for us from an ICM perspective. 1391 01:02:45,590 --> 01:02:48,910 They're both short enough where we can just go all in preflop 1392 01:02:48,910 --> 01:02:53,110 very often and they have to fold quite often. 1393 01:02:53,110 --> 01:02:55,780 10-7 off is a bit too weak, but I decide to raise. 1394 01:02:55,780 --> 01:02:58,030 But yeah, this is a bit inconsistent play from my part 1395 01:02:58,030 --> 01:03:00,480 because I think for most purposes, 1396 01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:03,470 8-7 off is a better hand than 10-7 off. 1397 01:03:03,470 --> 01:03:09,070 But for some reason I raise 10-7 off and fold 8-7 off. 1398 01:03:09,070 --> 01:03:10,960 He's 5-suited. 1399 01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:13,150 We get a walk again. 1400 01:03:13,150 --> 01:03:16,780 Queen-5 off, yeah, so I just go all in here. 1401 01:03:16,780 --> 01:03:19,930 So this is definitely not a plus chip EV all-in, 1402 01:03:19,930 --> 01:03:22,450 but once again I think ICM by now 1403 01:03:22,450 --> 01:03:26,500 is relevant enough where it's fine because he just 1404 01:03:26,500 --> 01:03:31,070 has to fold, weakening it down. 1405 01:03:31,070 --> 01:03:33,610 10-6 off, I decide to fold. 1406 01:03:33,610 --> 01:03:35,950 Big blind gets a walk. 1407 01:03:35,950 --> 01:03:39,380 Get a walk with 6-deuce pretty good. 1408 01:03:39,380 --> 01:03:41,070 Ace-2 off, once again, we go all in. 1409 01:03:41,070 --> 01:03:42,560 They fold. 1410 01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:44,300 Pocket kings, so I basically-- 1411 01:03:44,300 --> 01:03:44,929 AUDIENCE: Wow. 1412 01:03:44,929 --> 01:03:46,970 WILL MA: Yeah, so this is a bit suspicious again. 1413 01:03:46,970 --> 01:03:48,850 Normally I've been going all in. 1414 01:03:48,850 --> 01:03:49,530 He raises small. 1415 01:03:49,530 --> 01:03:52,670 Obviously yes, pocket kings. 1416 01:03:52,670 --> 01:03:54,740 So yeah, that's basically true. 1417 01:03:54,740 --> 01:03:56,630 But I mean also I think I will do this 1418 01:03:56,630 --> 01:03:58,880 with some of the weakest hands that I'm 1419 01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:00,800 not willing to gamble all in with 1420 01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:05,600 but still want to raise maybe something like 9-7 offsuit 1421 01:04:05,600 --> 01:04:07,220 maybe. 1422 01:04:07,220 --> 01:04:12,170 But we don't play it, so we take it down. 1423 01:04:12,170 --> 01:04:13,040 So he goes all in. 1424 01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:14,110 We fold jack-2 offsuit. 1425 01:04:17,340 --> 01:04:18,627 Queen-3 suited, go all in. 1426 01:04:18,627 --> 01:04:20,460 So I'm going to go through this fairly fast. 1427 01:04:20,460 --> 01:04:22,310 There's a lot of same stuff. 1428 01:04:22,310 --> 01:04:26,895 6-5 off, we fold because yeah, by now they're 1429 01:04:26,895 --> 01:04:29,020 short enough where they might actually just call us 1430 01:04:29,020 --> 01:04:30,310 pretty often. 1431 01:04:30,310 --> 01:04:32,830 So I fold 6-5 off. 1432 01:04:32,830 --> 01:04:36,430 So here, pocket 3s holds against queen-jack. 1433 01:04:36,430 --> 01:04:39,250 So this is an extreme ICM spot. 1434 01:04:39,250 --> 01:04:42,010 So he calls here, and he does double up. 1435 01:04:42,010 --> 01:04:46,120 So the next hand, we do have an extreme ICM spot 1436 01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:48,970 because this guy only has one big blind. 1437 01:04:48,970 --> 01:04:50,770 So essentially their correct strategy 1438 01:04:50,770 --> 01:04:53,290 is going to be I'm supposed to shove any two cards. 1439 01:04:53,290 --> 01:04:56,590 And he's only supposed to call, I would guess, 1440 01:04:56,590 --> 01:05:02,080 maybe the top 7% or 8% of hands in a situation. 1441 01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:05,410 He normally should be calling top 30 or something. 1442 01:05:05,410 --> 01:05:07,380 So I just go all in. 1443 01:05:07,380 --> 01:05:11,660 Even if he has ace-2 offsuit, I'm certain he has to fold. 1444 01:05:11,660 --> 01:05:15,520 Even if he has, say, king-queen, and I turn up my hand 1445 01:05:15,520 --> 01:05:17,335 and show him jack-8, he probably still 1446 01:05:17,335 --> 01:05:23,275 has to fold just because he really can't bust. 1447 01:05:23,275 --> 01:05:25,570 I haven't done the exact math, but I 1448 01:05:25,570 --> 01:05:27,520 wouldn't be that surprised if he told me 1449 01:05:27,520 --> 01:05:29,140 pocket 9s is a fold for him. 1450 01:05:29,140 --> 01:05:32,100 I wouldn't be that surprised, so yeah. 1451 01:05:36,070 --> 01:05:39,160 So once again, I go all in because this guy probably 1452 01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:39,850 can't call. 1453 01:05:44,900 --> 01:05:46,440 Oh, OK, so yeah. 1454 01:05:46,440 --> 01:05:48,927 We win against ace-queen, which is crazy 1455 01:05:48,927 --> 01:05:51,260 that they picked up ace-queen with one big blind, right? 1456 01:05:51,260 --> 01:05:51,760 Anyway. 1457 01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:52,530 [LAUGHTER] 1458 01:05:53,130 --> 01:05:57,720 Some players like to do this thing called cooperative play 1459 01:05:57,720 --> 01:06:01,350 to get that big blind to bust. 1460 01:06:01,350 --> 01:06:04,470 In the history of poker, it's what 1461 01:06:04,470 --> 01:06:09,620 was almost customary for the players who have chips in here 1462 01:06:09,620 --> 01:06:12,660 to basically just all agree to just call and not raise 1463 01:06:12,660 --> 01:06:16,140 each other and to maximize their chances of busting 1464 01:06:16,140 --> 01:06:17,117 the big blind. 1465 01:06:17,117 --> 01:06:18,700 It's a form of cheating in some sense. 1466 01:06:18,700 --> 01:06:20,320 It's collusion in some sense. 1467 01:06:20,320 --> 01:06:23,930 But it's customary maybe five-six years ago for everyone 1468 01:06:23,930 --> 01:06:28,140 to do this because it benefits everyone else. 1469 01:06:28,140 --> 01:06:33,150 It benefits all of these guys if they all agree to do this. 1470 01:06:33,150 --> 01:06:35,760 And it just maximizes the chances 1471 01:06:35,760 --> 01:06:37,650 that the big blind is eliminated. 1472 01:06:37,650 --> 01:06:43,950 But the issue with this is unfortunately 1473 01:06:43,950 --> 01:06:46,170 there is an option to be selfish. 1474 01:06:46,170 --> 01:06:50,640 Unfortunately, if we both trusted each other completely, 1475 01:06:50,640 --> 01:06:53,760 we could collude and be like, OK, we're just going to call, 1476 01:06:53,760 --> 01:06:56,250 check down every flop turn and river no matter 1477 01:06:56,250 --> 01:06:59,160 what to match so that we can both see the river with any two 1478 01:06:59,160 --> 01:07:02,010 cards and maximize the chances of busting this guy. 1479 01:07:02,010 --> 01:07:09,180 The issue with this is when you play a game, you're selfish. 1480 01:07:09,180 --> 01:07:10,950 If there is an opportunity to bet 1481 01:07:10,950 --> 01:07:14,469 because you have a good hand, you're going to want to bet. 1482 01:07:14,469 --> 01:07:16,260 If there's a draw and you have a good hand, 1483 01:07:16,260 --> 01:07:18,210 you want to bet to get the other guy to fold. 1484 01:07:18,210 --> 01:07:21,420 And basically from a game theoretic perspective, 1485 01:07:21,420 --> 01:07:23,250 since we have these options, there's 1486 01:07:23,250 --> 01:07:25,650 no way for us to essentially agree 1487 01:07:25,650 --> 01:07:28,320 that we're going to just check down and see the river, which 1488 01:07:28,320 --> 01:07:32,630 is why I consider collusion of players actually do this. 1489 01:07:32,630 --> 01:07:35,760 So nonetheless, I do the most selfish line, 1490 01:07:35,760 --> 01:07:37,680 which is just go all in. 1491 01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:40,050 But yeah, if this guy was my best friend 1492 01:07:40,050 --> 01:07:43,350 and I wanted to cheat, then I could just call and let 1493 01:07:43,350 --> 01:07:45,300 him call and then just check it down 1494 01:07:45,300 --> 01:07:46,680 even if I flopped the nut flush. 1495 01:07:51,850 --> 01:07:54,630 OK, so now it's heads up. 1496 01:07:54,630 --> 01:07:57,780 OK, I'll try to show every hand. 1497 01:07:57,780 --> 01:07:59,105 OK, so now ICM doesn't matter. 1498 01:07:59,105 --> 01:08:01,230 But it would be good to show a little heads up play 1499 01:08:01,230 --> 01:08:03,780 because I don't think we've done too much 1500 01:08:03,780 --> 01:08:05,910 heads up play in this class. 1501 01:08:05,910 --> 01:08:07,230 So we call here. 1502 01:08:07,230 --> 01:08:09,990 And we check. 1503 01:08:09,990 --> 01:08:11,520 He makes it 32. 1504 01:08:11,520 --> 01:08:16,359 And I just have to check-raise bluff this flop. 1505 01:08:16,359 --> 01:08:17,460 I think it's close. 1506 01:08:17,460 --> 01:08:20,370 I think I probably shouldn't be folding. 1507 01:08:20,370 --> 01:08:23,370 I think jack-6 suited just has too many backdoor 1508 01:08:23,370 --> 01:08:28,529 draws on this flop to ever fold just as part of my strategy. 1509 01:08:28,529 --> 01:08:31,720 I think I decided that I wanted my strategy to be I'm 1510 01:08:31,720 --> 01:08:35,490 going to raise good hands, like 8s and 4s. 1511 01:08:35,490 --> 01:08:38,520 And then I'm going to also raise hands with lots of backdoor 1512 01:08:38,520 --> 01:08:40,290 draws like jack-6 of hearts. 1513 01:08:40,290 --> 01:08:43,950 So I decide to do this. 1514 01:08:43,950 --> 01:08:47,890 So unfortunately he goes all in, so we fold. 1515 01:08:47,890 --> 01:08:48,890 It doesn't quite work. 1516 01:08:51,740 --> 01:08:55,054 So queen-10 off, we raise. 1517 01:08:55,054 --> 01:08:56,470 Oh, so one thing I should say is-- 1518 01:08:56,470 --> 01:08:59,140 I think most of you know this-- but once a tournament 1519 01:08:59,140 --> 01:09:02,319 gets heads up and it's just a small blind and the big blind, 1520 01:09:02,319 --> 01:09:04,514 the small blind is actually has position. 1521 01:09:04,514 --> 01:09:06,680 So normally when it's small blind against big blind, 1522 01:09:06,680 --> 01:09:08,790 the bid blind has position postflop. 1523 01:09:08,790 --> 01:09:10,810 But when it's heads up as a small blind, 1524 01:09:10,810 --> 01:09:12,160 you actually have position. 1525 01:09:12,160 --> 01:09:14,483 So you're very strongly incentivized to play 1526 01:09:14,483 --> 01:09:15,399 from this small blind. 1527 01:09:15,399 --> 01:09:17,380 It's just by far the better position 1528 01:09:17,380 --> 01:09:20,150 because you have position, and you 1529 01:09:20,150 --> 01:09:22,810 have to put in less of a blind. 1530 01:09:22,810 --> 01:09:25,029 So another cheat that-- so I'm teaching you guys 1531 01:09:25,029 --> 01:09:26,356 all these different cheats. 1532 01:09:26,356 --> 01:09:27,939 Another cheat that people used to do-- 1533 01:09:27,939 --> 01:09:28,990 it's not really a cheat. 1534 01:09:28,990 --> 01:09:33,460 But another angle shoot people used to do back in the day is 1535 01:09:33,460 --> 01:09:36,970 there would be people who normally play pretty low 1536 01:09:36,970 --> 01:09:41,109 stakes, let's say, $0.25, $0.50. 1537 01:09:41,109 --> 01:09:44,260 They would set up these $25, $50 tables. 1538 01:09:44,260 --> 01:09:47,020 So where the blinds are $25, $50, which 1539 01:09:47,020 --> 01:09:50,500 is really high stakes for them. 1540 01:09:50,500 --> 01:09:53,200 They really don't have the bankroll to gamble that. 1541 01:09:53,200 --> 01:09:55,180 But their strategy basically is if you're 1542 01:09:55,180 --> 01:09:57,910 the first to sit down, you get to be 1543 01:09:57,910 --> 01:09:59,590 the dealer on the first hand. 1544 01:09:59,590 --> 01:10:02,440 So their strategy is basically just 1545 01:10:02,440 --> 01:10:05,019 sit there and then wait for someone else to sit down. 1546 01:10:05,019 --> 01:10:07,060 And then play the first hand as the dealer, where 1547 01:10:07,060 --> 01:10:08,810 they have a huge advantage. 1548 01:10:08,810 --> 01:10:11,185 They can just raise, and usually the other guy will fold, 1549 01:10:11,185 --> 01:10:14,320 and they'll win 50 bucks, which is a huge deal to them. 1550 01:10:14,320 --> 01:10:16,900 And then they'll just leave after the first hand. 1551 01:10:16,900 --> 01:10:19,840 So this is something that happened quite a lot. 1552 01:10:19,840 --> 01:10:21,520 So my friends and I, we've talked 1553 01:10:21,520 --> 01:10:23,740 about playing a crazy strategy, where 1554 01:10:23,740 --> 01:10:26,400 you would sit down knowing this is what the other guy's going 1555 01:10:26,400 --> 01:10:27,130 to do. 1556 01:10:27,130 --> 01:10:28,960 And then sit down with him. 1557 01:10:28,960 --> 01:10:31,240 We would have the capital to take on risk. 1558 01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:33,550 And then we would basically just play the first hand 1559 01:10:33,550 --> 01:10:35,340 extremely aggressively. 1560 01:10:35,340 --> 01:10:37,900 And knowing that the guy has been fold most of the time, 1561 01:10:37,900 --> 01:10:41,570 because if he calls, that's all his money on the site. 1562 01:10:41,570 --> 01:10:45,154 So yeah, it led to a lot of weird dynamics. 1563 01:10:45,154 --> 01:10:47,840 But OK, so here we have-- 1564 01:10:47,840 --> 01:10:50,410 This is why I chose tournaments, not cash games. 1565 01:10:50,410 --> 01:10:52,720 There's fewer ways to do these when you use cheats. 1566 01:10:52,720 --> 01:10:54,535 So queen-10, we raise. 1567 01:10:54,535 --> 01:10:57,228 We take it down. 1568 01:10:57,228 --> 01:10:59,110 Next hand we get ace-queen suited. 1569 01:10:59,110 --> 01:11:00,590 So unfortunately we get a walk. 1570 01:11:03,190 --> 01:11:05,260 So queen-8, we raise. 1571 01:11:05,260 --> 01:11:08,080 We take it down-- sorry, he calls. 1572 01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:09,340 And then it's checked to us. 1573 01:11:09,340 --> 01:11:11,380 We continuation bet. 1574 01:11:11,380 --> 01:11:14,890 And he raises, which is weird because it's 1575 01:11:14,890 --> 01:11:17,521 a flop that's a lot better for my range than his 1576 01:11:17,521 --> 01:11:19,270 because I can have ace-king and ace-queen. 1577 01:11:19,270 --> 01:11:21,228 And even ace-jack, I think, if he had ace-jack, 1578 01:11:21,228 --> 01:11:23,260 he would have reraised preflop. 1579 01:11:23,260 --> 01:11:27,389 So in some sense it's weird because it's 1580 01:11:27,389 --> 01:11:28,930 really hard for him to have, I think, 1581 01:11:28,930 --> 01:11:30,640 pocket aces or pocket 8s. 1582 01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:32,910 Or even pocket 3s, he probably would 1583 01:11:32,910 --> 01:11:34,330 have reraised all on preflop. 1584 01:11:34,330 --> 01:11:36,662 So really it's like, what do you have? 1585 01:11:36,662 --> 01:11:37,870 It's like, I don't have much. 1586 01:11:37,870 --> 01:11:40,540 But really it's like, what do you have? 1587 01:11:40,540 --> 01:11:45,970 So it's weird because I expect him to check-raise this flop so 1588 01:11:45,970 --> 01:11:49,740 rarely that what he does, on the one hand, it's just strange. 1589 01:11:49,740 --> 01:11:52,570 But on the other hand, he must know that. 1590 01:11:52,570 --> 01:11:54,160 I'm assuming it's somewhat balanced, 1591 01:11:54,160 --> 01:11:57,670 and he will occasionally turn up ace-3 or something here. 1592 01:11:57,670 --> 01:12:00,760 So I decide to call and see one more card. 1593 01:12:00,760 --> 01:12:02,890 I don't know if that's great. 1594 01:12:02,890 --> 01:12:05,350 Maybe I should have just folded and just believed him 1595 01:12:05,350 --> 01:12:08,770 or just reraised if I didn't believe him. 1596 01:12:08,770 --> 01:12:10,210 Reraise essentially is a bluff. 1597 01:12:10,210 --> 01:12:13,540 Make it 100,000, and just hope he folds. 1598 01:12:13,540 --> 01:12:14,800 But I decide to call. 1599 01:12:14,800 --> 01:12:17,380 The turn is a 9 putting out some straight draws 1600 01:12:17,380 --> 01:12:19,330 but no flush draws. 1601 01:12:19,330 --> 01:12:22,420 That's fairly big, and I fold. 1602 01:12:22,420 --> 01:12:25,090 I don't really know how I feel about how I played that hand. 1603 01:12:25,090 --> 01:12:27,400 I think I mostly played exploitatively. 1604 01:12:27,400 --> 01:12:30,120 I just called the flop because I wanted to see what he did, 1605 01:12:30,120 --> 01:12:32,400 and I folded the turn because maybe 1606 01:12:32,400 --> 01:12:35,020 based on his bet sizing or his bet timing, 1607 01:12:35,020 --> 01:12:36,150 I just felt like he had it. 1608 01:12:36,150 --> 01:12:39,029 So I'm not sure I'm extremely happy with how 1609 01:12:39,029 --> 01:12:39,820 I played that hand. 1610 01:12:39,820 --> 01:12:41,950 But probably just at the time, I decided 1611 01:12:41,950 --> 01:12:45,310 to play exploitatively and try to play best against how 1612 01:12:45,310 --> 01:12:47,680 I expect him to act. 1613 01:12:47,680 --> 01:12:54,160 So here 10-7 off, I decide to reraise. 1614 01:12:54,160 --> 01:12:57,720 So the reason I reraise a hand as bad as 10-7 offsuit-- 1615 01:12:57,720 --> 01:13:01,360 I talked a bit about this two classes ago about your preflop 1616 01:13:01,360 --> 01:13:02,560 raising strategy. 1617 01:13:02,560 --> 01:13:04,360 So essentially what I'm doing is I 1618 01:13:04,360 --> 01:13:06,820 want to be reraising my good hands 1619 01:13:06,820 --> 01:13:10,690 and also my hands that I'm not sad if he goes all in, 1620 01:13:10,690 --> 01:13:13,060 and I have to fold, and I don't get to see a flop with. 1621 01:13:13,060 --> 01:13:17,420 So if I had 10-7 suited, that's too good of a hand. 1622 01:13:17,420 --> 01:13:19,300 And I really don't want to reraise. 1623 01:13:19,300 --> 01:13:22,480 And then if he goes all in, fold my pretty 10-7 suited 1624 01:13:22,480 --> 01:13:24,550 and not even get to see a flop with it. 1625 01:13:24,550 --> 01:13:26,950 But 10-7 offsuit is a bad enough hand 1626 01:13:26,950 --> 01:13:29,290 where I'm not that sad if he just goes all in, 1627 01:13:29,290 --> 01:13:30,370 and I have to fold. 1628 01:13:30,370 --> 01:13:33,130 So that's why I'm raising my good hands 1629 01:13:33,130 --> 01:13:37,050 and also my weakest possible hands 1630 01:13:37,050 --> 01:13:40,930 that I'm OK if I don't get to see a flop with. 1631 01:13:40,930 --> 01:13:43,660 He does call unfortunately, but we do hit a great flop. 1632 01:13:43,660 --> 01:13:46,360 So I'm just going to bet and get it all in. 1633 01:13:46,360 --> 01:13:49,540 Heads up basically any top pair is, in general, 1634 01:13:49,540 --> 01:13:53,540 just way more good enough to put all your money in with. 1635 01:13:53,540 --> 01:13:54,610 He folds, though. 1636 01:13:54,610 --> 01:13:55,740 So ace-6, we raise. 1637 01:13:55,740 --> 01:13:57,490 I'm going to go fairly quickly because I'm 1638 01:13:57,490 --> 01:13:58,885 running a bit short of time. 1639 01:13:58,885 --> 01:14:03,760 We continuation bet the flop and take it down. 1640 01:14:03,760 --> 01:14:04,420 He raises here. 1641 01:14:04,420 --> 01:14:08,650 I call with king-6, which is pretty borderline. 1642 01:14:08,650 --> 01:14:11,590 It's too good a hand to fold, but probably it's 1643 01:14:11,590 --> 01:14:12,700 too bad a hand to call. 1644 01:14:12,700 --> 01:14:14,740 Probably I should have just raised 1645 01:14:14,740 --> 01:14:16,550 by the same logic as before. 1646 01:14:16,550 --> 01:14:17,530 But we call. 1647 01:14:17,530 --> 01:14:19,510 And I decide to donk out on this flop 1648 01:14:19,510 --> 01:14:24,690 because I figured there's a number of draws I can have. 1649 01:14:24,690 --> 01:14:26,710 And here I do have a weak draw. 1650 01:14:26,710 --> 01:14:30,800 A 7 gives me a bad streak but still 1651 01:14:30,800 --> 01:14:32,920 a very good hand in the two-player pot. 1652 01:14:32,920 --> 01:14:33,480 He calls. 1653 01:14:33,480 --> 01:14:35,560 And the turn is a jack, which I still 1654 01:14:35,560 --> 01:14:38,260 have a straight draw because now a queen gives me a straight. 1655 01:14:38,260 --> 01:14:41,020 So I continue bluffing. 1656 01:14:41,020 --> 01:14:44,010 So he folds, which is good. 1657 01:14:44,010 --> 01:14:47,240 6-2 offsuit I just give one to them. 1658 01:14:47,240 --> 01:14:49,300 So yeah, I think you should be playing 1659 01:14:49,300 --> 01:14:51,280 90-95% percent of buttons. 1660 01:14:51,280 --> 01:14:53,680 Maybe not that high when it's getting shallower, 1661 01:14:53,680 --> 01:14:55,590 but at least 80% of buttons. 1662 01:14:55,590 --> 01:14:59,470 But 2-3 offsuit is one of the hands I'm OK with folding. 1663 01:14:59,470 --> 01:15:02,320 8-5 suited, I'm just check-raising this flopping, 1664 01:15:02,320 --> 01:15:03,970 getting it in. 1665 01:15:03,970 --> 01:15:04,730 He folds-- yeah? 1666 01:15:04,730 --> 01:15:06,610 AUDIENCE: Let's say you had an opponent 1667 01:15:06,610 --> 01:15:10,650 that from the big blind was very likely to three-bet you. 1668 01:15:10,650 --> 01:15:12,850 How would you adjust your range opening 1669 01:15:12,850 --> 01:15:14,440 from the button or the small blind? 1670 01:15:14,440 --> 01:15:17,660 WILL MA: Oh, OK. 1671 01:15:17,660 --> 01:15:19,690 So if they're really loose, you would basically 1672 01:15:19,690 --> 01:15:22,210 raise only your good hands that you're hoping 1673 01:15:22,210 --> 01:15:23,481 they reraise all in with. 1674 01:15:23,481 --> 01:15:23,980 And-- 1675 01:15:23,980 --> 01:15:27,020 AUDIENCE: So would that be from maybe 60% of your hands 1676 01:15:27,020 --> 01:15:27,870 down from 80? 1677 01:15:27,870 --> 01:15:29,910 WILL MA: Oh, yeah. 1678 01:15:29,910 --> 01:15:31,330 You would basically raise less. 1679 01:15:31,330 --> 01:15:33,074 So it'd just have more value essentially. 1680 01:15:33,074 --> 01:15:35,240 AUDIENCE: It's hard to calibrate that range, though, 1681 01:15:35,240 --> 01:15:36,640 as what's a good hand. 1682 01:15:36,640 --> 01:15:39,280 WILL MA: Yeah, and also another thing you can do is call more. 1683 01:15:39,280 --> 01:15:41,620 I don't think it gets relevant in this heads up match. 1684 01:15:41,620 --> 01:15:43,382 But sometimes it gets shallow enough 1685 01:15:43,382 --> 01:15:45,340 where you actually want to have a calling range 1686 01:15:45,340 --> 01:15:48,740 preflop from the button. 1687 01:15:48,740 --> 01:15:52,210 OK, so king-10. 1688 01:15:52,210 --> 01:15:53,810 OK, so I do call here. 1689 01:15:53,810 --> 01:15:55,960 I think I essentially call, thinking 1690 01:15:55,960 --> 01:15:58,340 I would call if he went all in but also just 1691 01:15:58,340 --> 01:16:01,930 to make it so that I can also sometimes call 1692 01:16:01,930 --> 01:16:04,070 a hand like 10-4 offsuit. 1693 01:16:04,070 --> 01:16:07,190 And he can't just shove any 2 and expect me to fold. 1694 01:16:07,190 --> 01:16:08,840 So I decide to call here. 1695 01:16:08,840 --> 01:16:13,910 We get a great flop, so I check it back as a slow play. 1696 01:16:13,910 --> 01:16:15,470 He checks again on the turn. 1697 01:16:15,470 --> 01:16:16,970 So I bet. 1698 01:16:16,970 --> 01:16:18,470 He calls. 1699 01:16:18,470 --> 01:16:20,750 The river he leads out quite big. 1700 01:16:20,750 --> 01:16:24,890 And I just call because I think raising I'll usually only 1701 01:16:24,890 --> 01:16:26,840 get called by better. 1702 01:16:26,840 --> 01:16:28,850 And he actually turns up a flush here. 1703 01:16:28,850 --> 01:16:30,530 So it's a weird hand. 1704 01:16:30,530 --> 01:16:32,450 It seems like we could have lost a lot more. 1705 01:16:32,450 --> 01:16:34,850 But I'm not saying our opponent played the hand badly, 1706 01:16:34,850 --> 01:16:38,280 but we were very lucky to lose this little when we have 1707 01:16:38,280 --> 01:16:40,640 a two pair against a flush. 1708 01:16:40,640 --> 01:16:45,290 And we only lost, essentially, four big blinds or something. 1709 01:16:45,290 --> 01:16:48,100 I guess I'll be happy to get away with that. 1710 01:16:48,100 --> 01:16:51,561 OK, I'll probably run two or three minutes over time. 1711 01:16:51,561 --> 01:16:52,310 I'll try to hurry. 1712 01:16:52,310 --> 01:16:55,310 But I don't want to not finish the tournament today. 1713 01:16:55,310 --> 01:16:56,780 So we fooled this. 1714 01:16:56,780 --> 01:17:00,545 Maybe I'll skip forward a bit to some of the bigger pots. 1715 01:17:03,164 --> 01:17:04,080 So what happened here? 1716 01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:05,030 So we raise jack-6. 1717 01:17:05,030 --> 01:17:06,136 He goes all in. 1718 01:17:06,136 --> 01:17:06,635 We fold. 1719 01:17:12,638 --> 01:17:13,990 All right, let's go do this one. 1720 01:17:13,990 --> 01:17:16,759 OK, so king-- so OK, so the match has gone on for a bit. 1721 01:17:16,759 --> 01:17:17,800 He's won a bunch of pots. 1722 01:17:17,800 --> 01:17:18,880 He catching up. 1723 01:17:18,880 --> 01:17:20,290 He's catching up. 1724 01:17:20,290 --> 01:17:21,520 King-3 off, we raise. 1725 01:17:21,520 --> 01:17:22,570 He calls. 1726 01:17:22,570 --> 01:17:25,060 So here the flop I think is-- so once again 1727 01:17:25,060 --> 01:17:29,260 it's a situation where I don't think he ever has an ace. 1728 01:17:29,260 --> 01:17:32,440 So I'm basically betting at 100%. 1729 01:17:32,440 --> 01:17:33,160 He calls. 1730 01:17:33,160 --> 01:17:36,280 The turn's another ace, which is a bad card for us 1731 01:17:36,280 --> 01:17:40,080 because now it's less likely we have an ace. 1732 01:17:40,080 --> 01:17:42,060 But normally, I still think it's a fine spot 1733 01:17:42,060 --> 01:17:45,910 to bluff just because he essentially can't have an ace 1734 01:17:45,910 --> 01:17:46,870 and we can. 1735 01:17:46,870 --> 01:17:49,640 But I think king-high is good enough here where 1736 01:17:49,640 --> 01:17:52,780 I am going to win the pot by checking it down with king-high 1737 01:17:52,780 --> 01:17:56,090 often enough that bluffing is superfluous. 1738 01:17:56,090 --> 01:17:57,474 So I just check. 1739 01:17:57,474 --> 01:17:58,390 And it's checked down. 1740 01:17:58,390 --> 01:18:00,610 And he was actually trapping with king-9 here. 1741 01:18:00,610 --> 01:18:03,290 So he wins that one. 1742 01:18:03,290 --> 01:18:05,380 Yeah, and probably he wouldn't have folded. 1743 01:18:05,380 --> 01:18:08,950 Let's say, I bet the turn and went all in on the river. 1744 01:18:08,950 --> 01:18:11,530 Probably he has to call just because it's almost the best 1745 01:18:11,530 --> 01:18:13,570 hand he can possibly have. 1746 01:18:13,570 --> 01:18:15,580 It pretty much is the best hand you can possibly 1747 01:18:15,580 --> 01:18:17,560 have other than maybe 7-6. 1748 01:18:22,111 --> 01:18:23,450 I think nothing happens there. 1749 01:18:23,450 --> 01:18:26,310 So let me see. 1750 01:18:26,310 --> 01:18:28,790 OK, so yeah, we lose a bunch of pots because we raise 1751 01:18:28,790 --> 01:18:31,640 and he reraises and we fold. 1752 01:18:31,640 --> 01:18:34,330 So things aren't looking too good. 1753 01:18:34,330 --> 01:18:37,340 Oh, so I actually made a hero fold here. 1754 01:18:37,340 --> 01:18:39,650 I think, once again, this is an exploitative play. 1755 01:18:39,650 --> 01:18:42,847 I would probably never fold this from an optimal strategy 1756 01:18:42,847 --> 01:18:43,430 point of view. 1757 01:18:43,430 --> 01:18:46,160 I think an ace in heads up with only 20 big blinds 1758 01:18:46,160 --> 01:18:47,120 is way too good. 1759 01:18:47,120 --> 01:18:50,570 But he did just reraise me two hands ago. 1760 01:18:50,570 --> 01:18:51,280 And I don't know. 1761 01:18:51,280 --> 01:18:54,050 I think at the time I just felt like he almost certainly had it 1762 01:18:54,050 --> 01:18:56,600 when he did this. 1763 01:18:56,600 --> 01:19:01,640 I made an exploitative fold based on what I thought he had. 1764 01:19:01,640 --> 01:19:03,320 So the next hand, he raises. 1765 01:19:03,320 --> 01:19:04,670 We go all in with pocket 5s. 1766 01:19:04,670 --> 01:19:06,490 And we've never [INAUDIBLE] the ace-jack 1767 01:19:06,490 --> 01:19:07,894 which is pretty stupid. 1768 01:19:11,030 --> 01:19:12,360 Yeah, I was very surprised. 1769 01:19:12,360 --> 01:19:15,260 I was basically ready to just leave. 1770 01:19:15,260 --> 01:19:17,037 I was probably in some other tournaments. 1771 01:19:17,037 --> 01:19:18,870 But I basically was ready to close the table 1772 01:19:18,870 --> 01:19:20,328 and focus on the other tournaments. 1773 01:19:20,328 --> 01:19:23,510 But somehow we get there. 1774 01:19:23,510 --> 01:19:25,620 And then the tournament just is easy from there. 1775 01:19:25,620 --> 01:19:26,161 We get ace-9. 1776 01:19:26,161 --> 01:19:26,900 We go all in. 1777 01:19:26,900 --> 01:19:27,870 He folds. 1778 01:19:27,870 --> 01:19:30,170 And then he goes all in into our pocket 6s. 1779 01:19:30,170 --> 01:19:32,240 And we hit a straight, so we win. 1780 01:19:34,760 --> 01:19:36,367 Right, 1781 01:19:36,367 --> 01:19:38,450 So I played through all the hands at a tournament. 1782 01:19:38,450 --> 01:19:40,650 Once again, there's a lot of selection bias there. 1783 01:19:40,650 --> 01:19:43,210 But hopefully you learned some stuff from that. 1784 01:19:43,210 --> 01:19:44,920 So there's two classes left. 1785 01:19:44,920 --> 01:19:50,381 Next class, I'll wrap up the theory and the exact poker 1786 01:19:50,381 --> 01:19:50,880 example. 1787 01:19:50,880 --> 01:19:52,924 So I'll talk a bit more about cash games 1788 01:19:52,924 --> 01:19:54,965 and show you how to play when you're really deep. 1789 01:19:54,965 --> 01:19:56,900 I talked about postflop raising. 1790 01:19:56,900 --> 01:19:58,640 And then Friday we have a guest lecture 1791 01:19:58,640 --> 01:20:01,610 from Bill Chen, which should be really exciting. 1792 01:20:01,610 --> 01:20:03,690 He always talks about very interesting stuff. 1793 01:20:03,690 --> 01:20:06,640 So I'll see you guys around.