1 00:00:00,070 --> 00:00:02,430 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:02,430 --> 00:00:03,820 Commons license. 3 00:00:03,820 --> 00:00:06,060 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 4 00:00:06,060 --> 00:00:10,150 continue to offer high quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:10,150 --> 00:00:12,690 To make a donation or to view additional materials 6 00:00:12,690 --> 00:00:16,600 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 7 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:17,260 at ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:28,470 --> 00:00:30,157 PROFESSOR: OK, so welcome back everyone. 9 00:00:30,157 --> 00:00:32,240 This is going to be the first class we're actually 10 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,944 talking about poker strategy, so this should be pretty exciting. 11 00:00:34,944 --> 00:00:37,360 So the first thing we're going to learn about is position, 12 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,560 and this is only three slides long. 13 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,391 So positions have different names. 14 00:00:42,391 --> 00:00:43,890 They're put in two different groups, 15 00:00:43,890 --> 00:00:45,800 and a lot of how we describe what's 16 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:47,270 going in a particular hand is going 17 00:00:47,270 --> 00:00:49,211 to be relevant to where people are sitting. 18 00:00:49,211 --> 00:00:49,710 Why? 19 00:00:49,710 --> 00:00:51,210 Because people in a late position 20 00:00:51,210 --> 00:00:53,940 get to act after people in an early position. 21 00:00:53,940 --> 00:00:55,700 And in general, the positions are broken 22 00:00:55,700 --> 00:00:58,010 into four different groups. 23 00:00:58,010 --> 00:01:00,370 There are the blinds, who pay the blinds 24 00:01:00,370 --> 00:01:03,870 and are first act on every street after a pre-flop. 25 00:01:03,870 --> 00:01:05,645 There's early position, middle position, 26 00:01:05,645 --> 00:01:10,080 and late position, where all these positions have names, 27 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,680 except middle position. 28 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,150 Starting in the big blind, we call it under the gun, 29 00:01:15,150 --> 00:01:17,840 under the gun plus 1, under the gun plus 2. 30 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:22,030 You could also describe these as seat 1, 2, 3, 4 31 00:01:22,030 --> 00:01:24,560 all the way to 9 or 10, although I don't really 32 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,820 like that because I they all have pretty unique names, 33 00:01:27,820 --> 00:01:31,160 and they're descriptive enough to just use those. 34 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:35,010 So middle position is labeled one, two, and three, and then 35 00:01:35,010 --> 00:01:37,410 around the button you describe their relation 36 00:01:37,410 --> 00:01:39,680 to the button, where either you are the button 37 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:41,670 or you are cutting off the button. 38 00:01:41,670 --> 00:01:44,640 And then some people get a little crazy by calling this 39 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,770 the hijack, but I tend to not do that, 40 00:01:48,770 --> 00:01:50,360 and then as we eliminate people, we 41 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,710 get rid of the least interesting positions 42 00:01:52,710 --> 00:01:55,970 to only keep the ones with real names. 43 00:01:55,970 --> 00:01:59,290 So the reason that I'm telling you this now 44 00:01:59,290 --> 00:02:01,500 is we're going to be going through hands 45 00:02:01,500 --> 00:02:05,200 where I talk about players by their position. 46 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:07,140 The individual person doesn't matter, 47 00:02:07,140 --> 00:02:08,600 but it's much to understand what's 48 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,410 going on when I refer to them as a cut off, or the button, 49 00:02:11,410 --> 00:02:12,260 or whatever. 50 00:02:12,260 --> 00:02:14,460 But in general, the later position 51 00:02:14,460 --> 00:02:17,380 is better because you get more information. 52 00:02:17,380 --> 00:02:20,670 You get to see people acting before you. 53 00:02:20,670 --> 00:02:27,120 And as a result, the money flows, in general, 54 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:28,150 to the late positions. 55 00:02:30,795 --> 00:02:32,420 The hand that you're the button, you're 56 00:02:32,420 --> 00:02:34,290 going to make the most amount of money, 57 00:02:34,290 --> 00:02:36,230 and you can see that in poker tracker. 58 00:02:36,230 --> 00:02:38,620 And if you're losing money on the button, 59 00:02:38,620 --> 00:02:40,380 you should seriously reevaluate how 60 00:02:40,380 --> 00:02:42,213 you're playing that, because that's when you 61 00:02:42,213 --> 00:02:44,180 make the most amount of money. 62 00:02:44,180 --> 00:02:46,610 Big blinds are an interesting situation 63 00:02:46,610 --> 00:02:49,050 because they get to see the flop for a discount, 64 00:02:49,050 --> 00:02:53,344 because they're compelled to pay some sort of bet. 65 00:02:53,344 --> 00:02:55,510 So you might think the blinds are in a good position 66 00:02:55,510 --> 00:02:57,620 because they get a free flop, but they're actually 67 00:02:57,620 --> 00:03:01,540 in a terrible position because when position matters post flop 68 00:03:01,540 --> 00:03:03,970 they are the first to act in every single situation. 69 00:03:03,970 --> 00:03:05,720 So even though you might think that you're 70 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:07,760 getting a discount for being in the blinds, 71 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:09,522 you're getting a discount and entry 72 00:03:09,522 --> 00:03:11,480 into a hand where you're almost certainly going 73 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,400 to be at a major informational disadvantage. 74 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:19,390 However, interestingly, in short stack situations, 75 00:03:19,390 --> 00:03:21,890 early position is actually better 76 00:03:21,890 --> 00:03:25,930 because you have the opportunity to go 77 00:03:25,930 --> 00:03:28,700 all in before the other person does, 78 00:03:28,700 --> 00:03:33,680 and you maintain the equity from aggression, the fold equity, 79 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,160 which we'll talk about later. 80 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,096 It's sort of like a game of chicken where-- 81 00:03:39,096 --> 00:03:41,910 so chicken is a game where two people drive at each other 82 00:03:41,910 --> 00:03:45,860 until one person turns, where it's like the an infinitely bad 83 00:03:45,860 --> 00:03:51,720 return if they both don't turn, and then one wins if one turns 84 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:52,820 and one doesn't. 85 00:03:52,820 --> 00:03:54,800 So the proper strategy in chicken 86 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,650 is to throw your steering wheel out the window 87 00:03:58,650 --> 00:04:00,680 so the other person knows he only 88 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,380 has one option if he doesn't want an infinitely big loss. 89 00:04:04,380 --> 00:04:06,620 So with position, it works very similar to that, 90 00:04:06,620 --> 00:04:09,610 where if you're in a tournament where neither person wants 91 00:04:09,610 --> 00:04:12,250 to see a showdown, neither person wants 92 00:04:12,250 --> 00:04:15,540 to deal with a coin flip for their tournament life, 93 00:04:15,540 --> 00:04:18,649 if you're in early position, you have the opportunity 94 00:04:18,649 --> 00:04:20,850 to be the aggressor and go all in. 95 00:04:20,850 --> 00:04:22,930 So you get to discourage the other person 96 00:04:22,930 --> 00:04:24,770 from entering into it. 97 00:04:24,770 --> 00:04:27,550 So let's move on to some basic concepts. 98 00:04:27,550 --> 00:04:31,200 So a lot of these things are based on odds. 99 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,800 So poker is a statistical game, and we're 100 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:38,210 going to be talking about applications of math to poker. 101 00:04:38,210 --> 00:04:42,040 So why does drawing matter? 102 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,920 So drawing means you're trying to make a hand. 103 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:47,930 More cards that will come out will give you 104 00:04:47,930 --> 00:04:50,900 a really good hand, whereas you don't necessarily 105 00:04:50,900 --> 00:04:53,060 have a good hand right now. 106 00:04:53,060 --> 00:04:55,550 In a really common situation, there's 107 00:04:55,550 --> 00:04:58,370 one guy that has an OK hand, and there's 108 00:04:58,370 --> 00:05:00,580 one guy that has nothing but the potential 109 00:05:00,580 --> 00:05:03,350 to have a really good hand. 110 00:05:03,350 --> 00:05:05,520 Most of the decision points come down 111 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,830 to whether the guy with nothing has equity, 112 00:05:09,830 --> 00:05:13,260 has an interest in making his real hand. 113 00:05:13,260 --> 00:05:15,370 So really common examples of these 114 00:05:15,370 --> 00:05:17,980 are one person has a pair or two pair, 115 00:05:17,980 --> 00:05:21,190 and one guy has a straight or a flush draw. 116 00:05:21,190 --> 00:05:23,690 If we're talking pre-flop, someone has a pocket pair, 117 00:05:23,690 --> 00:05:25,971 and someone else has literally anything else, 118 00:05:25,971 --> 00:05:28,220 and they're trying to make anything more than whatever 119 00:05:28,220 --> 00:05:29,240 that guy's pairs is. 120 00:05:32,217 --> 00:05:33,800 So what the drawer has to to-- the guy 121 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,530 without a real hand-- is to decide whether the bet 122 00:05:36,530 --> 00:05:39,550 he is facing or whatever has to pay to see more cards 123 00:05:39,550 --> 00:05:44,090 to find out if he makes his hand is worth the cost, 124 00:05:44,090 --> 00:05:49,130 is worth what the aggressor is making him pay 125 00:05:49,130 --> 00:05:51,110 to see that additional card. 126 00:05:51,110 --> 00:05:56,000 And the person who has a hand already wants to make it 127 00:05:56,000 --> 00:06:00,130 so that the drawer cannot see his card for a positive equity. 128 00:06:00,130 --> 00:06:04,630 He wants to bet so much that a call is bad, because that's 129 00:06:04,630 --> 00:06:07,020 where his equity comes from. 130 00:06:07,020 --> 00:06:10,760 So he can either bet enough so that he folds-- the other guy 131 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:15,510 folds-- or bet enough that he'll call and make a huge mistake. 132 00:06:15,510 --> 00:06:18,560 Both are equally good. 133 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:20,752 Actually the second is probably better. 134 00:06:20,752 --> 00:06:22,910 AUDIENCE: You're saying [INAUDIBLE]. 135 00:06:22,910 --> 00:06:25,030 PROFESSOR: So I'm saying a drawer is someone 136 00:06:25,030 --> 00:06:28,120 who has a flush draw or a straight draw, 137 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,280 or basically has no real hand at showdown, 138 00:06:31,280 --> 00:06:35,430 but has a reasonable chance of, as more cards come out, 139 00:06:35,430 --> 00:06:39,034 making a monster hand, like making a hand which will almost 140 00:06:39,034 --> 00:06:40,200 certainly win that showdown. 141 00:06:42,990 --> 00:06:45,535 OK, so let's go through a scenario. 142 00:06:58,570 --> 00:07:00,840 OK, so this seems pretty straightforward. 143 00:07:00,840 --> 00:07:02,280 There's some sort of bet pre-flop. 144 00:07:02,280 --> 00:07:05,240 I called, and it was heads up. 145 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,800 It came with four to a flush, four hearts, and this guy bet 146 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:09,550 into me. 147 00:07:09,550 --> 00:07:13,860 And the question is, what do we do? 148 00:07:13,860 --> 00:07:15,240 That's a big question. 149 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,060 And I'm going to be using this format a lot 150 00:07:17,060 --> 00:07:19,600 because it's easier to-- at least for me, 151 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,770 it's easier to see, and then hopefully it's something 152 00:07:22,770 --> 00:07:24,220 you guys will pick up on. 153 00:07:24,220 --> 00:07:26,229 I'm only going to include relevant information, 154 00:07:26,229 --> 00:07:27,770 and the cases are going to be written 155 00:07:27,770 --> 00:07:30,610 this format where we have the relevant stacks up here. 156 00:07:30,610 --> 00:07:31,600 Here are the blinds. 157 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,730 This means that small blind is $20, big blind is $40, 158 00:07:34,730 --> 00:07:36,260 and there's a $10 ante. 159 00:07:36,260 --> 00:07:38,250 This is a pot before anyone does anything. 160 00:07:38,250 --> 00:07:40,010 This is a pot as of a flop. 161 00:07:40,010 --> 00:07:40,960 These are my cards. 162 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,240 The hero is whoever we care about. 163 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,930 The villain is the other guy. 164 00:07:45,930 --> 00:07:48,090 And this just shows the order of what happens. 165 00:07:48,090 --> 00:07:51,850 So here he raised to $120 pre-flop. 166 00:07:51,850 --> 00:07:52,840 Three big blinds. 167 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:54,120 I call. 168 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,250 The flop comes eight of hearts, three of hearts, 169 00:07:56,250 --> 00:07:57,840 something that doesn't matter. 170 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,000 He bets $370, all in. 171 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,910 So my decision is, what can I do here? 172 00:08:02,910 --> 00:08:04,960 And this is a really common scenario. 173 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:06,600 And what we can do is develop the tools 174 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,130 that we need to make this-- to figure out 175 00:08:09,130 --> 00:08:11,100 what we want to do here. 176 00:08:11,100 --> 00:08:13,180 And rather than should we call, we 177 00:08:13,180 --> 00:08:15,950 can come up with a much more resilient answer. 178 00:08:15,950 --> 00:08:19,402 What's the biggest bet that we can call? 179 00:08:19,402 --> 00:08:21,110 And we're going to end up with a solution 180 00:08:21,110 --> 00:08:23,810 set of this, of this area here. 181 00:08:23,810 --> 00:08:26,330 That's what we want to figure out. 182 00:08:26,330 --> 00:08:28,120 But first we need to develop something 183 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,650 called expected value. 184 00:08:30,650 --> 00:08:34,240 So expected value is the same in poker as it is in math. 185 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,169 It's just a probability weighted average 186 00:08:36,169 --> 00:08:38,380 of all possible results. 187 00:08:38,380 --> 00:08:41,169 So it's win percentage times win amount minus 188 00:08:41,169 --> 00:08:45,520 lose percentage times lose amount. 189 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,580 So in our scenario, we're going to add some variables into it. 190 00:08:48,580 --> 00:08:51,380 We're facing about into a pot of 380. 191 00:08:51,380 --> 00:08:55,030 Our EV is going to be whatever chance 192 00:08:55,030 --> 00:09:00,220 we have to win times a pot of 380 plus whatever the be is, 193 00:09:00,220 --> 00:09:05,140 x, minus our lose percentage, which is 1 minus win percentage 194 00:09:05,140 --> 00:09:07,160 times that same variable x. 195 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:11,220 And our threshold for call is when EV equals 0. 196 00:09:11,220 --> 00:09:15,570 So pot odds is generally what we call the relationship 197 00:09:15,570 --> 00:09:18,880 between the size of the bet you're facing 198 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:23,100 and the pot that you would win if you call that bet 199 00:09:23,100 --> 00:09:24,950 and then win the hand. 200 00:09:24,950 --> 00:09:28,050 So this is going to be the equation. 201 00:09:28,050 --> 00:09:30,140 So it's plus EV. 202 00:09:30,140 --> 00:09:34,650 It's positive expectation if the chance you have of winning 203 00:09:34,650 --> 00:09:39,470 is greater than the call amount divided by the size of the pot 204 00:09:39,470 --> 00:09:40,950 after the call. 205 00:09:40,950 --> 00:09:43,550 So say that we're seeing a bet of $100. 206 00:09:43,550 --> 00:09:46,050 We were seeing a bet a little bit bigger than that, but just 207 00:09:46,050 --> 00:09:48,390 for example purposes, we'll use $100. 208 00:09:48,390 --> 00:09:51,490 So your pot odds would be $100 divided 209 00:09:51,490 --> 00:09:55,180 by $580, where $580 is whatever was in the pot 210 00:09:55,180 --> 00:09:58,310 before plus his bet plus your call. 211 00:09:58,310 --> 00:10:02,050 You'll win $580 if you win this hand. 212 00:10:02,050 --> 00:10:07,250 So your call is contributing 17% of the pot. 213 00:10:07,250 --> 00:10:09,020 And just so you guys know, people 214 00:10:09,020 --> 00:10:10,550 use pot odds in a different way. 215 00:10:10,550 --> 00:10:16,330 They talk about 1 to 4 and use a different notation 216 00:10:16,330 --> 00:10:18,172 for referring to your chance of winning. 217 00:10:18,172 --> 00:10:19,880 I always thought this was very intuitive, 218 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:21,921 so that's what I'm going to be teaching you guys. 219 00:10:21,921 --> 00:10:25,260 It's a percentage of the pot that you can contribute. 220 00:10:25,260 --> 00:10:28,370 So if your win percentage is more than 17%, 221 00:10:28,370 --> 00:10:30,900 this is a plus EV call, and this should be fairly 222 00:10:30,900 --> 00:10:33,810 easy to wrap your head around. 223 00:10:33,810 --> 00:10:35,910 And your win percentage can just be calculated 224 00:10:35,910 --> 00:10:38,790 based on what cards will make you win divided by what 225 00:10:38,790 --> 00:10:41,370 cards are left in the deck. 226 00:10:41,370 --> 00:10:42,530 And those are called outs. 227 00:10:42,530 --> 00:10:46,370 Cards that result in a win for you based on your best estimate 228 00:10:46,370 --> 00:10:48,350 are called an out. 229 00:10:48,350 --> 00:10:52,150 So when you're going for a flush-- so there are 13 hearts. 230 00:10:52,150 --> 00:10:53,770 You already know about four of them. 231 00:10:53,770 --> 00:10:55,800 They're either in your hand or on the board. 232 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:57,540 There are nine hearts left that you 233 00:10:57,540 --> 00:11:01,305 could hit to make your flush and presumably win. 234 00:11:01,305 --> 00:11:03,430 So your win percentage-- this is calculating it out 235 00:11:03,430 --> 00:11:08,490 exactly-- is just 1 minus your chance of hitting the flush 236 00:11:08,490 --> 00:11:09,970 on either one of those cards. 237 00:11:09,970 --> 00:11:12,715 So it's 40 out of 49 times 39 out 238 00:11:12,715 --> 00:11:16,110 of 48, which is about equal to 34%. 239 00:11:16,110 --> 00:11:21,070 So since this 34%, our chance of winning, is more than 17%, 240 00:11:21,070 --> 00:11:23,410 the proportion of a call that we're contributing, 241 00:11:23,410 --> 00:11:24,570 this makes it a good call. 242 00:11:24,570 --> 00:11:27,390 And the fact that this is really big compared to this 243 00:11:27,390 --> 00:11:29,240 makes it a really good call. 244 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,520 So this is how I think of it in terms of visualizing it. 245 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:38,370 So this whole pie is the $580 pot 246 00:11:38,370 --> 00:11:40,330 that it would be if you called. 247 00:11:40,330 --> 00:11:43,970 This chunk is your 34% pot odds. 248 00:11:43,970 --> 00:11:47,230 Now, this chunk can be comprised of the size 249 00:11:47,230 --> 00:11:49,890 of the bet you're calling and your expected 250 00:11:49,890 --> 00:11:51,250 value from calling. 251 00:11:51,250 --> 00:11:56,830 So here, the size of the chunk is $197, which was 34% of $580. 252 00:11:56,830 --> 00:11:58,960 We can contribute up to that amount. 253 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,080 If we get to contribute less of it, 254 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,420 that means that any additional chunk is EV. 255 00:12:03,420 --> 00:12:07,450 We are making $97 for making this call. 256 00:12:07,450 --> 00:12:09,520 Similarly, if we make a call that's too big, 257 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,120 we end up with a negative chunk of that pie. 258 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,990 So I'm teaching you a quick rule for calculating 259 00:12:15,990 --> 00:12:19,130 your chance of winning any hand, and the quick rule 260 00:12:19,130 --> 00:12:22,097 I'm going to use is by Phil Gordon. 261 00:12:22,097 --> 00:12:23,430 So let's talk about Phil Gordon. 262 00:12:23,430 --> 00:12:26,630 So Phil Gordon got-- he seems like an OK guy. 263 00:12:26,630 --> 00:12:28,460 He got fourth place in the main event. 264 00:12:28,460 --> 00:12:30,440 He won a World Poker tour. 265 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,400 He won two British championships. 266 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,330 He's the head referee of the World Series 267 00:12:34,330 --> 00:12:35,555 of rock, paper, scissors. 268 00:12:35,555 --> 00:12:37,430 These guys get into really interesting things 269 00:12:37,430 --> 00:12:40,560 when they're not playing poker, and he's the author Phil 270 00:12:40,560 --> 00:12:41,860 Gordon's Little Green Book. 271 00:12:41,860 --> 00:12:44,550 So Phil Gordon invented this thing which 272 00:12:44,550 --> 00:12:47,340 caught on called Gordon's rule of two and four, 273 00:12:47,340 --> 00:12:50,350 which basically just says each of your outs 274 00:12:50,350 --> 00:12:54,130 is worth 2% for each additional card 275 00:12:54,130 --> 00:12:56,090 you get to see for that side of the bet. 276 00:12:56,090 --> 00:12:58,670 And it should be fairly obvious where 2% comes from. 277 00:12:58,670 --> 00:13:00,880 It's just 1 divided by 50, and it's 278 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:05,920 a rough estimate of what each out is worth over 49, or 48, 279 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,660 or however many cards are left. 280 00:13:08,660 --> 00:13:12,010 If you get to see both the turn and the river, you use 4%, 281 00:13:12,010 --> 00:13:14,215 and that's the whole role. 282 00:13:14,215 --> 00:13:15,840 I'm sure someone figured it out before, 283 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:17,631 but he was nice enough to coin it and write 284 00:13:17,631 --> 00:13:20,950 in his book, which is why I'm giving him credit for it. 285 00:13:20,950 --> 00:13:24,064 So some examples of these are if you have a low pair 286 00:13:24,064 --> 00:13:25,730 and you're trying to get three of a kind 287 00:13:25,730 --> 00:13:28,574 by the turn or the river, you have two outs. 288 00:13:28,574 --> 00:13:29,990 And if you're trying to figure out 289 00:13:29,990 --> 00:13:33,280 your chance of making that three of a kind on the turn, 290 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:38,970 you do two outs times 2% for a total of 4% to make your hand. 291 00:13:38,970 --> 00:13:41,450 Simple enough. 292 00:13:41,450 --> 00:13:43,220 Other common examples are flush draw, 293 00:13:43,220 --> 00:13:46,350 which should be nine outs to give you odds of 9 294 00:13:46,350 --> 00:13:49,810 divided by 47, or about 18%. 295 00:13:49,810 --> 00:13:51,750 An inside straight draw is four outs 296 00:13:51,750 --> 00:13:55,120 to give you odds 4 out of 47, or 8%. 297 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,150 And you can see this is the exact calculation, 298 00:13:58,150 --> 00:14:02,620 but it's really very close to just multiplying by 2. 299 00:14:02,620 --> 00:14:04,700 So back to pot odds. 300 00:14:04,700 --> 00:14:06,550 Your break even is when EV is 0. 301 00:14:06,550 --> 00:14:10,710 That's a common theme that we're going to be talking about. 302 00:14:10,710 --> 00:14:14,090 So the bet is x into a pot of $380. 303 00:14:14,090 --> 00:14:17,655 Your chance of hitting the flush is 9 times 4%, or 36%-ish. 304 00:14:20,290 --> 00:14:22,400 we're assuming that we get to see both cards. 305 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,780 Why do I think we're going to get to see both cards? 306 00:14:25,780 --> 00:14:29,110 Because he's all in, and he can't bet anymore. 307 00:14:29,110 --> 00:14:31,540 So win percentage is 36%. 308 00:14:31,540 --> 00:14:34,410 Our exact win rate is 34%, showing 309 00:14:34,410 --> 00:14:36,370 that this is pretty close. 310 00:14:36,370 --> 00:14:39,140 We didn't actually need to do any heavy math 311 00:14:39,140 --> 00:14:41,260 to get a good ballpark number. 312 00:14:41,260 --> 00:14:45,286 So the question here is, we're facing a bet of $370. 313 00:14:45,286 --> 00:14:49,020 The pot before we face that bet is $380. 314 00:14:49,020 --> 00:14:50,810 And the question is, should we call? 315 00:14:50,810 --> 00:14:53,350 Because you're not going-- you can solve the threshold 316 00:14:53,350 --> 00:14:56,980 conceptually just to get a resilient solution 317 00:14:56,980 --> 00:14:58,760 set, especially when you're doing things 318 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:02,040 before or after the fact, but in real time, 319 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,310 we're going to want a rule for how to figure this out. 320 00:15:04,310 --> 00:15:06,226 So let's talk through this one, and then we'll 321 00:15:06,226 --> 00:15:08,300 go through the solution on the next side. 322 00:15:08,300 --> 00:15:10,660 So we have to figure out whether to call this. 323 00:15:10,660 --> 00:15:13,494 So what are we drawing to? 324 00:15:13,494 --> 00:15:14,660 So we're drawing to a flush. 325 00:15:14,660 --> 00:15:18,020 So how many cards will result in a flush here? 326 00:15:18,020 --> 00:15:18,720 Nine, right. 327 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,110 So there are nine remaining hearts in the deck, 328 00:15:21,110 --> 00:15:23,160 and then we get to see one or two cards. 329 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:24,510 AUDIENCE: Two cards. 330 00:15:24,510 --> 00:15:25,510 PROFESSOR: Yep, I agree. 331 00:15:25,510 --> 00:15:27,860 So we get to see two cards because he's all in. 332 00:15:27,860 --> 00:15:33,730 So our chance of winning is 4% times 9, so 9%, 18%, 36%. 333 00:15:33,730 --> 00:15:37,280 So we can call up to 36%. 334 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,340 We can contribute up to 36% of the final pot. 335 00:15:40,340 --> 00:15:46,470 So we would contribute $370 into the final pot of 2 times this 336 00:15:46,470 --> 00:15:48,160 plus 1 times this. 337 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:49,950 And just offhand, you can calculate-- 338 00:15:49,950 --> 00:15:51,670 you can figure out that's around 1/3, 339 00:15:51,670 --> 00:15:55,670 because the pot is about equal to the size of his bet. 340 00:15:55,670 --> 00:15:59,180 So we're contributing a little bit less than 33%, 341 00:15:59,180 --> 00:16:01,280 so we know that this is going to be a good call. 342 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,500 And that's how you would do this in real time. 343 00:16:03,500 --> 00:16:06,690 You'd say you're 36% to win. 344 00:16:06,690 --> 00:16:11,510 You're contributing 33% of the pot, so you decide to call. 345 00:16:11,510 --> 00:16:15,151 And that's how you would make this decision. 346 00:16:15,151 --> 00:16:18,300 So let's do a couple more examples. 347 00:16:18,300 --> 00:16:19,900 These are all different situations 348 00:16:19,900 --> 00:16:21,560 where this type of thing might come up. 349 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,820 So here's a situation where we have asymmetrical stacks, 350 00:16:24,820 --> 00:16:26,670 although the blinds are the same. 351 00:16:26,670 --> 00:16:28,150 So we have six, seven of diamonds. 352 00:16:28,150 --> 00:16:30,650 I'm using the four color deck just to make it easier to see. 353 00:16:33,170 --> 00:16:35,690 Something happens pre-flop that doesn't really matter. 354 00:16:35,690 --> 00:16:39,100 On the flop, there' $320 in the pot. 355 00:16:39,100 --> 00:16:40,910 He bets $150. 356 00:16:40,910 --> 00:16:41,987 So what we do here? 357 00:16:41,987 --> 00:16:43,070 So what are we drawing to? 358 00:16:43,070 --> 00:16:44,290 We're drawing to a straight. 359 00:16:44,290 --> 00:16:46,167 So how many outs do we have? 360 00:16:46,167 --> 00:16:47,750 How many cards will hit that straight? 361 00:16:47,750 --> 00:16:48,592 AUDIENCE: Eight. 362 00:16:48,592 --> 00:16:49,550 PROFESSOR: Eight, yeah. 363 00:16:49,550 --> 00:16:53,030 So we got four nines and then four fours-- 364 00:16:53,030 --> 00:16:54,740 will make us hit that straight. 365 00:16:54,740 --> 00:16:55,932 So eight outs total. 366 00:16:55,932 --> 00:16:57,890 So what's our chance of winning this hand based 367 00:16:57,890 --> 00:16:59,510 on what we're calling here? 368 00:16:59,510 --> 00:17:00,890 AUDIENCE: 32%. 369 00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:02,370 PROFESSOR: Yeah, 8%, 16%, 32%. 370 00:17:02,370 --> 00:17:04,530 Yep, I agree with that. 371 00:17:04,530 --> 00:17:08,650 So based on that, what do we have 372 00:17:08,650 --> 00:17:11,630 to contribute to stay in this hand? 373 00:17:11,630 --> 00:17:14,050 What percentage of the future pot? 374 00:17:14,050 --> 00:17:15,702 AUDIENCE: Less than 1/3. 375 00:17:15,702 --> 00:17:17,410 PROFESSOR: Yeah, something less than 1/3, 376 00:17:17,410 --> 00:17:20,710 because if he get exactly $320, that would be 1/3. 377 00:17:20,710 --> 00:17:22,859 So we know this is way less than 1/3, 378 00:17:22,859 --> 00:17:25,650 and since we're 32% to win, this is probably 379 00:17:25,650 --> 00:17:28,000 going to be a good call. 380 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:29,780 So going through the questions-- so we 381 00:17:29,780 --> 00:17:32,090 have an open ended straight draw, meaning we 382 00:17:32,090 --> 00:17:34,190 have eight outs because two different cards 383 00:17:34,190 --> 00:17:36,340 would result in the straight. 384 00:17:36,340 --> 00:17:39,250 Our outs are any nine and any four. 385 00:17:39,250 --> 00:17:41,750 We have a 33% chance of hitting it, 386 00:17:41,750 --> 00:17:43,240 and what's the correct play? 387 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:50,180 Call, because $150 out of $620, where $620 is the pot plus $300 388 00:17:50,180 --> 00:17:51,840 is 24%. 389 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:53,220 OK, so that wasn't bad. 390 00:17:53,220 --> 00:17:55,010 So those are two common draws. 391 00:17:55,010 --> 00:17:57,300 One was a flush draw, and one was a straight draw. 392 00:17:57,300 --> 00:17:59,920 So let's go to something a little bit different. 393 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:02,880 So we have five five on the button. 394 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:04,870 He raises into us. 395 00:18:04,870 --> 00:18:10,260 I call, and the flop comes three clubs, five, ace, six. 396 00:18:10,260 --> 00:18:11,190 He bets $200. 397 00:18:11,190 --> 00:18:11,820 OK, cool. 398 00:18:11,820 --> 00:18:17,060 So this is a situation which I'm sure a lot of you 399 00:18:17,060 --> 00:18:18,920 may have run into recently. 400 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,730 So what hand are we drawing to here? 401 00:18:22,730 --> 00:18:26,986 Why do we think we're behind if we have three fives here? 402 00:18:26,986 --> 00:18:30,610 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] two of clubs [INAUDIBLE]. 403 00:18:30,610 --> 00:18:33,760 PROFESSOR: Yeah, he might have a flush, certainly 404 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,490 to the point where I'm not super comfortable with the set here 405 00:18:36,490 --> 00:18:39,690 knowing that it's reasonably likely for someone 406 00:18:39,690 --> 00:18:42,380 to have a flush here, or even if he doesn't have a flush 407 00:18:42,380 --> 00:18:44,590 and we bet, he's only going to call us really 408 00:18:44,590 --> 00:18:47,130 if he has a flush or a better hand. 409 00:18:47,130 --> 00:18:49,280 So he has a flush-- what are we drawing to? 410 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:50,695 What beats a flush here? 411 00:18:50,695 --> 00:18:51,570 AUDIENCE: Full house. 412 00:18:51,570 --> 00:18:52,736 PROFESSOR: Full house, good. 413 00:18:52,736 --> 00:18:53,330 What else? 414 00:18:53,330 --> 00:18:56,109 AUDIENCE: Four fives. 415 00:18:56,109 --> 00:18:57,400 PROFESSOR: Yep, four of a kind. 416 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:58,997 OK, so what are our outs here? 417 00:18:58,997 --> 00:18:59,860 AUDIENCE: Seven. 418 00:18:59,860 --> 00:19:00,860 PROFESSOR: Yep, I agree. 419 00:19:00,860 --> 00:19:01,400 Seven outs. 420 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:02,152 What are they? 421 00:19:02,152 --> 00:19:05,030 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 422 00:19:05,030 --> 00:19:05,530 Yep. 423 00:19:05,530 --> 00:19:09,470 So three aces, three sixes, one five. 424 00:19:09,470 --> 00:19:11,720 So we have seven outs total. 425 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,845 So what's our chance of hitting-- 426 00:19:13,845 --> 00:19:16,555 do we count one or two cards here? 427 00:19:16,555 --> 00:19:17,465 AUDIENCE: One. 428 00:19:17,465 --> 00:19:18,090 PROFESSOR: One. 429 00:19:18,090 --> 00:19:18,590 Why? 430 00:19:21,019 --> 00:19:22,560 Because he has a lot of chips behind, 431 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,390 and there's no way, if he's betting this on the flop, 432 00:19:25,390 --> 00:19:27,839 he's giving us a free card on the turn, 433 00:19:27,839 --> 00:19:29,880 unless for some reason he thinks we have a flash, 434 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,050 but we certainly can't count on that. 435 00:19:32,050 --> 00:19:33,560 OK, so what did we say? 436 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:34,370 Seven outs. 437 00:19:34,370 --> 00:19:38,490 So we use 2% for the next card, or 14%. 438 00:19:38,490 --> 00:19:41,810 So we can call up to 14% of the future part. 439 00:19:41,810 --> 00:19:44,960 The future pot is going to be $2100, $2300, 440 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,340 so we can call 14% of that. 441 00:19:48,340 --> 00:19:52,390 So what's a good estimate of that? 442 00:19:52,390 --> 00:19:56,730 It's going to be more than my 280 because 14% of $2000 443 00:19:56,730 --> 00:20:00,080 is $280, right? 444 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,480 So he's betting materially less than that. 445 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,710 He's way under betting whatever he has here. 446 00:20:05,710 --> 00:20:08,760 If he has a flush, he's not protecting it. 447 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:12,370 If he doesn't have a flush, he's losing. 448 00:20:12,370 --> 00:20:16,060 So this is a very common example of a villain not protecting 449 00:20:16,060 --> 00:20:17,920 his hand. 450 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,710 This is a situation where I see a lot of newer players 451 00:20:20,710 --> 00:20:21,840 screw up. 452 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,374 They're betting so little-- they're betting little 453 00:20:24,374 --> 00:20:26,290 because they don't want the other guy to fold, 454 00:20:26,290 --> 00:20:27,690 but they're actually losing value 455 00:20:27,690 --> 00:20:30,290 because the other guy folding here would be preferable. 456 00:20:30,290 --> 00:20:33,370 They should bet enough that he either folds or he makes 457 00:20:33,370 --> 00:20:35,769 a wrong decision if he calls. 458 00:20:35,769 --> 00:20:38,060 So we're drawing to full house or four of a kind, which 459 00:20:38,060 --> 00:20:39,250 you guys got right. 460 00:20:39,250 --> 00:20:42,616 Our outs are three aces, three sixes, and one five 461 00:20:42,616 --> 00:20:44,050 for seven cards total. 462 00:20:44,050 --> 00:20:50,294 Our chance of hitting the draw is 14%, so the correct play is? 463 00:20:50,294 --> 00:20:51,132 AUDIENCE: Call. 464 00:20:51,132 --> 00:20:52,840 PROFESSOR: Yep, the correct play is call, 465 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:57,430 because he's only asking us for to contribute 9% of that pot. 466 00:20:57,430 --> 00:21:00,790 Since we're 14% to win, the chunk in that pie 467 00:21:00,790 --> 00:21:03,700 is bigger than the 9% chunk that we have to contribute, 468 00:21:03,700 --> 00:21:08,370 and the result is this $122 free that he's giving us. 469 00:21:08,370 --> 00:21:10,840 OK, so I think this is my last example. 470 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,060 This one should be a little bit more fun. 471 00:21:13,060 --> 00:21:15,190 So this is it. 472 00:21:15,190 --> 00:21:18,630 So why is this a draw that we're looking at? 473 00:21:18,630 --> 00:21:20,130 We're the first one to act. 474 00:21:20,130 --> 00:21:23,220 Why does this matter? 475 00:21:23,220 --> 00:21:25,955 Can anyone tell what's going on here? 476 00:21:25,955 --> 00:21:27,440 AUDIENCE: Big blind [INAUDIBLE]. 477 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,240 PROFESSOR: Yeah, so the villain here 478 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:33,340 is all in blind with that $200, because that's the big blind. 479 00:21:33,340 --> 00:21:39,120 So by calling here or by doing anything, he is going all in. 480 00:21:39,120 --> 00:21:41,910 So really it's like he acted before us, 481 00:21:41,910 --> 00:21:44,460 and now we're deciding whether we want to act. 482 00:21:44,460 --> 00:21:48,440 So what are we drawing to here? 483 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:49,800 What are we facing? 484 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,609 What does he have in terms of a range? 485 00:21:52,609 --> 00:21:53,400 AUDIENCE: Anything. 486 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:54,520 PROFESSOR: Any two cards. 487 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:57,510 And then so what are we drawing to? 488 00:21:57,510 --> 00:22:00,460 In general, we're drawing to basically anything. 489 00:22:00,460 --> 00:22:03,320 We're hoping that we win some amount of the time, 490 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,110 and what percentage do we have to win? 491 00:22:07,110 --> 00:22:09,440 First let's start with what's a reasonable estimate 492 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:14,700 for the amount we could win, the percentage of the time? 493 00:22:14,700 --> 00:22:19,760 So what are some hand versus hand percentages that you know? 494 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,564 So what's aces versus anything? 495 00:22:23,564 --> 00:22:24,830 AUDIENCE: 80%. 496 00:22:24,830 --> 00:22:27,150 PROFESSOR: Yeah, it's like 80% or 85%. 497 00:22:27,150 --> 00:22:30,360 And then if he doesn't have a pocket pair higher than both 498 00:22:30,360 --> 00:22:34,630 of our cards, you're generally-- even if you're dominated, 499 00:22:34,630 --> 00:22:38,100 you're like 70/30, and then the majority 500 00:22:38,100 --> 00:22:40,780 of random versus random is between 60/40 501 00:22:40,780 --> 00:22:43,700 in either direction. 502 00:22:43,700 --> 00:22:46,840 So say that-- what percentage of the time 503 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:51,674 do we have to win here for this to be a good call? 504 00:22:51,674 --> 00:22:53,840 So what's the size of the bet that we're facing here 505 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:54,881 if we're the small blind? 506 00:22:57,340 --> 00:23:00,010 $100, right? 507 00:23:00,010 --> 00:23:01,750 So we're contributing $100 here to win 508 00:23:01,750 --> 00:23:04,910 a pot of $400, which is going to be on big blind 509 00:23:04,910 --> 00:23:06,000 from each of us. 510 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:10,920 So if we're more than 25% to win here, this is a plus EV call. 511 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,530 And I see a lot of people screw this up for some reason, 512 00:23:13,530 --> 00:23:19,620 but you're virtually always ahead of 25% here. 513 00:23:19,620 --> 00:23:22,274 So what we're drawing to here is anything, 514 00:23:22,274 --> 00:23:23,690 and our chance of hitting the draw 515 00:23:23,690 --> 00:23:26,980 is we're actually about 40% versus his range. 516 00:23:26,980 --> 00:23:31,160 And even the worst heads up hand versus any two cards 517 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,650 is 32%, so we're really calling blind there. 518 00:23:34,650 --> 00:23:38,500 We are always ahead of his range. 519 00:23:38,500 --> 00:23:40,750 So the correct play is certainly going to need a call, 520 00:23:40,750 --> 00:23:42,410 and the EV is like $60. 521 00:23:42,410 --> 00:23:44,740 So if we fold this, it's worth about $60 chips. 522 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:48,930 So let's talk about implied out odds. 523 00:23:48,930 --> 00:23:52,990 So the solution to an implied odds question 524 00:23:52,990 --> 00:23:55,280 is the number of chips that we have 525 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,570 to win after hitting our draw. 526 00:23:57,570 --> 00:24:02,790 So I'm using that specific language because for pot odds 527 00:24:02,790 --> 00:24:06,120 the solution is whether or not you can call, 528 00:24:06,120 --> 00:24:08,770 or what's the maximum bet you can call. 529 00:24:08,770 --> 00:24:10,270 For implied odds, it's different. 530 00:24:10,270 --> 00:24:12,750 It's the number of chips you have to win later 531 00:24:12,750 --> 00:24:14,740 to make the call good. 532 00:24:14,740 --> 00:24:16,460 It's the amount of basically dead money 533 00:24:16,460 --> 00:24:20,860 you need to add to the pot after the fact. 534 00:24:20,860 --> 00:24:24,390 So the way that we do that is we take a look at our percentage 535 00:24:24,390 --> 00:24:27,170 chance of winning-- say it's 20%-- 536 00:24:27,170 --> 00:24:31,120 and then we figure out what size would the pot have to be 537 00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:35,734 to make the bet we are currently facing be 20% of that pot. 538 00:24:35,734 --> 00:24:37,900 So here's an example, and we're using easier numbers 539 00:24:37,900 --> 00:24:40,870 here because we're dividing by percentages. 540 00:24:40,870 --> 00:24:45,200 So say we have a flush draw and we're 18% to hit. 541 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:51,200 If the pot is $300 and we have a bet of $180 into us, 542 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,890 our call is going to be 27% of the pot. 543 00:24:54,890 --> 00:24:58,090 So if we had a 27% chance of winning that would be a break 544 00:24:58,090 --> 00:24:59,400 even call, but we don't. 545 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,470 We have an 19% chance of winning. 546 00:25:01,470 --> 00:25:03,820 So by pot odds, it says don't call. 547 00:25:03,820 --> 00:25:06,040 But to figure out what the amount is 548 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,180 that we want the pot to be, we just 549 00:25:09,180 --> 00:25:12,180 divide that $180 by the 18% of our odds 550 00:25:12,180 --> 00:25:14,010 to get this $1000 number. 551 00:25:14,010 --> 00:25:17,830 So if the part were $1000, we could make that call. 552 00:25:17,830 --> 00:25:21,680 So the solution here is this $340 553 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,390 difference, which is the actual part 554 00:25:24,390 --> 00:25:28,120 after we call-- the difference between that and the pot 555 00:25:28,120 --> 00:25:30,430 that we need to make this call neutral. 556 00:25:30,430 --> 00:25:33,330 That's where this $340 comes from. 557 00:25:33,330 --> 00:25:35,620 And it has to be in dead money. 558 00:25:35,620 --> 00:25:37,980 It has to be money that's added to the pot 559 00:25:37,980 --> 00:25:41,020 after we already hit our flush. 560 00:25:41,020 --> 00:25:45,930 So to visualize-- so we need that bet of $180 561 00:25:45,930 --> 00:25:49,410 from the example I just gave to be 18% of the pot. 562 00:25:49,410 --> 00:25:52,860 That's what makes it a good bet. 563 00:25:52,860 --> 00:25:55,520 As of the time that we make the decision, 564 00:25:55,520 --> 00:26:00,376 our bet here represents 27% of that pot. 565 00:26:00,376 --> 00:26:04,220 However, if we can increase a pot by $340, 566 00:26:04,220 --> 00:26:07,540 that bet would be 18% of that new pot. 567 00:26:07,540 --> 00:26:11,110 So that gives us the right implied odds to make this call. 568 00:26:11,110 --> 00:26:14,050 And what we need to figure out is whether this $340 569 00:26:14,050 --> 00:26:17,020 number is realistic-- the difference between this $1000 570 00:26:17,020 --> 00:26:19,080 and that $660. 571 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:20,500 So are we following that? 572 00:26:20,500 --> 00:26:22,439 Is that making it easier to understand 573 00:26:22,439 --> 00:26:24,980 what we're trying to figure out when we're doing implied odds 574 00:26:24,980 --> 00:26:25,900 question? 575 00:26:25,900 --> 00:26:26,787 AUDIENCE: Yes. 576 00:26:26,787 --> 00:26:27,620 PROFESSOR: OK, cool. 577 00:26:27,620 --> 00:26:31,910 So I think I have two or three examples here just 578 00:26:31,910 --> 00:26:34,490 to walk through that idea. 579 00:26:34,490 --> 00:26:35,660 So here's a hand. 580 00:26:48,820 --> 00:26:51,300 So here's a decision we're facing, 581 00:26:51,300 --> 00:26:53,750 and we need to figure out whether this is a good call. 582 00:26:53,750 --> 00:26:55,550 So we have plenty of chips behind. 583 00:26:55,550 --> 00:26:59,920 We all started with $1000, and then we're 584 00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:03,110 probably not winning this hand because we have middle pair. 585 00:27:03,110 --> 00:27:05,630 So we're drawing to two pair or three of a kind. 586 00:27:05,630 --> 00:27:10,080 Our outs are these, which are five outs total, 587 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,830 which gives us a chance of hitting our draw of what? 588 00:27:12,830 --> 00:27:15,270 So do we get to see one or two cards? 589 00:27:15,270 --> 00:27:16,792 AUDIENCE: One. 590 00:27:16,792 --> 00:27:17,500 PROFESSOR: Right. 591 00:27:17,500 --> 00:27:19,000 We get to see one card, because presumably he's 592 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,030 going to bet again. 593 00:27:20,030 --> 00:27:23,470 So we multiply by 2% to get a 10% chance of hitting the draw, 594 00:27:23,470 --> 00:27:27,080 and then let's go back to this. 595 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,000 So what does the pot have to be to make 596 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,192 this bet 10% of the future pot? 597 00:27:33,192 --> 00:27:34,136 AUDIENCE: $1000. 598 00:27:34,136 --> 00:27:35,327 AUDIENCE: $900. 599 00:27:35,327 --> 00:27:36,910 PROFESSOR: Well, it needs to be $1000, 600 00:27:36,910 --> 00:27:39,870 because we're contributing $100 of some pot 601 00:27:39,870 --> 00:27:41,680 that we have 10% equity in. 602 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:43,220 So it needs to be $1000, which means 603 00:27:43,220 --> 00:27:46,890 how much additional money do we need to add after we call that? 604 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:54,030 So after this call it's going to be $100, $475, $575, 605 00:27:54,030 --> 00:27:57,370 because we're calling $100, so that's going to be in the pot, 606 00:27:57,370 --> 00:27:57,870 too. 607 00:27:57,870 --> 00:28:00,610 And then it's the delta between that and $1000 608 00:28:00,610 --> 00:28:01,950 that we care about. 609 00:28:01,950 --> 00:28:06,920 So it's going to be $1000 minus $575. 610 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,330 We need to draw $425 in addition at the end. 611 00:28:11,330 --> 00:28:13,200 So I have a 10% chance of hitting. 612 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,760 Our odds are 16%, meaning we can't call it there. 613 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:21,060 However, if we can pull out that $100 bet divided 614 00:28:21,060 --> 00:28:24,760 by the 10% odds that we need, it creates $1000 pot 615 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,720 with the difference of $575. 616 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:31,120 So we need $425 more on that after we hit our draw 617 00:28:31,120 --> 00:28:33,767 to make that a good call, which in that situation 618 00:28:33,767 --> 00:28:34,475 seems reasonable. 619 00:28:37,230 --> 00:28:40,030 So he got $100 into a pot of $400. 620 00:28:40,030 --> 00:28:42,960 Presumably he'll bet like $200 or $300 next hand, 621 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,790 and then we can re-pop him for anything. 622 00:28:46,790 --> 00:28:49,010 Even if it's a min bet, which he'll presumably 623 00:28:49,010 --> 00:28:51,190 be obligated to call, especially because this 624 00:28:51,190 --> 00:28:58,800 is a very hidden draw, we'll be able to make this a good call. 625 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,970 So I think this is reasonably a good call based on I 626 00:29:01,970 --> 00:29:06,660 think we could get $400, $500 more at least. 627 00:29:06,660 --> 00:29:09,609 So let's do another one of these. 628 00:29:09,609 --> 00:29:12,150 So I'm going to make these all from the same position and all 629 00:29:12,150 --> 00:29:13,690 the pre-flop actions the same just 630 00:29:13,690 --> 00:29:16,750 to make it simple to see what's going on. 631 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,680 OK, so here let's go through the same steps. 632 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,401 So what are we drawing to here? 633 00:29:28,401 --> 00:29:29,442 AUDIENCE: Straight flush. 634 00:29:29,442 --> 00:29:32,350 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 635 00:29:32,350 --> 00:29:33,980 PROFESSOR: Yeah, so several things. 636 00:29:33,980 --> 00:29:36,180 So we're drawing to a straight. 637 00:29:36,180 --> 00:29:37,250 We're drawing to a flush. 638 00:29:37,250 --> 00:29:39,198 We're drawing to anything else. 639 00:29:39,198 --> 00:29:40,910 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 640 00:29:40,910 --> 00:29:44,240 So, I would agree we're drawing to a royal flush also. 641 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,180 And I'm going to say the over pair might not be good. 642 00:29:47,180 --> 00:29:49,810 One pair I wouldn't consider a great hand, 643 00:29:49,810 --> 00:29:54,970 especially when we're-- what were blinds here? 644 00:29:54,970 --> 00:29:55,740 $50, $100? 645 00:29:55,740 --> 00:29:59,480 So we have an m of like $50? 646 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:01,110 Something like that. 647 00:30:01,110 --> 00:30:07,650 So I think our m-- our top pair is not that great here, 648 00:30:07,650 --> 00:30:09,280 but I do think the flush is good. 649 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,310 Probably like a king high flush is good, 650 00:30:11,310 --> 00:30:13,400 and then the straight is good, too. 651 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:14,790 So how many outs do we have here? 652 00:30:18,750 --> 00:30:20,730 So how many outs to the flush? 653 00:30:20,730 --> 00:30:21,954 AUDIENCE: Nine. 654 00:30:21,954 --> 00:30:24,370 PROFESSOR: Right, so we have nine other clubs in the deck. 655 00:30:24,370 --> 00:30:26,294 And then how many outs to the straight? 656 00:30:26,294 --> 00:30:27,090 AUDIENCE: Eight. 657 00:30:27,090 --> 00:30:28,090 PROFESSOR: Eight, right. 658 00:30:28,090 --> 00:30:30,631 So we have 17 outs, and then how many are overlaps? 659 00:30:30,631 --> 00:30:32,554 AUDIENCE: Two. 660 00:30:32,554 --> 00:30:33,470 PROFESSOR: Two, right. 661 00:30:33,470 --> 00:30:35,011 So let me make sure I got that right. 662 00:30:35,011 --> 00:30:36,715 So 9 plus 8. 663 00:30:36,715 --> 00:30:37,840 17 Minus 2. 664 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:38,970 Yep, 15. 665 00:30:38,970 --> 00:30:40,090 So we have 15 outs here. 666 00:30:40,090 --> 00:30:43,422 And then how many cards are we going to see? 667 00:30:43,422 --> 00:30:44,320 AUDIENCE: One. 668 00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,329 PROFESSOR: We're going to see one. 669 00:30:46,329 --> 00:30:47,870 I really wouldn't estimate that we're 670 00:30:47,870 --> 00:30:51,050 going to see two cards, unless someone is specifically all in. 671 00:30:51,050 --> 00:30:53,430 So use one card here. 672 00:30:53,430 --> 00:30:58,150 So we have 15 outs over one card, so what's 673 00:30:58,150 --> 00:31:00,666 our percent chance of winning on that next card? 674 00:31:00,666 --> 00:31:01,520 AUDIENCE: 30%. 675 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:02,670 PROFESSOR: 30%, good. 676 00:31:06,070 --> 00:31:08,850 So what would the pot have to be eventually 677 00:31:08,850 --> 00:31:11,410 to make this a good call with our 30% chance of winning 678 00:31:11,410 --> 00:31:12,700 this hand? 679 00:31:12,700 --> 00:31:18,180 AUDIENCE: $1800? 680 00:31:18,180 --> 00:31:22,430 PROFESSOR: It would be-- so I think it 681 00:31:22,430 --> 00:31:25,540 would be $600 divided by 30%. 682 00:31:25,540 --> 00:31:26,206 Right? 683 00:31:26,206 --> 00:31:26,830 So what's that? 684 00:31:26,830 --> 00:31:29,154 So $600 divided by 3/10. 685 00:31:29,154 --> 00:31:31,570 No, I think it's going to be more than that, because we're 686 00:31:31,570 --> 00:31:34,410 going to multiply by 10/3. 687 00:31:34,410 --> 00:31:38,110 So it's going to $6000 divided by 3, or $2000. 688 00:31:38,110 --> 00:31:39,960 Would you agree with that? 689 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,770 So this pot has to be $2000 by the end. 690 00:31:41,770 --> 00:31:45,110 Now, what's it going to be when we call here? 691 00:31:45,110 --> 00:31:45,905 AUDIENCE: $1425. 692 00:31:45,905 --> 00:31:47,030 PROFESSOR: Yeah, let's see. 693 00:31:47,030 --> 00:31:50,140 So it's going to be $600-- his $600 plus our $600. 694 00:31:50,140 --> 00:31:52,066 $1200 plus $275. 695 00:31:52,066 --> 00:31:54,200 Yeah, $1475. 696 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,780 So how many additional dollars do we need in the pot 697 00:31:56,780 --> 00:31:58,540 after hitting one of our draws? 698 00:31:58,540 --> 00:31:59,662 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]. 699 00:31:59,662 --> 00:32:00,620 PROFESSOR: Good, right. 700 00:32:00,620 --> 00:32:02,110 So I think that's right. 701 00:32:02,110 --> 00:32:04,280 So drawing to straight or flush. 702 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,140 Any ace, any nine, seven other clubs 703 00:32:06,140 --> 00:32:09,120 that aren't ace or nine for 15 outs. 704 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,000 We are 30% to hit this. 705 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:16,210 So right now the pot odds are 40% because he's betting $600-- 706 00:32:16,210 --> 00:32:21,100 or we'd be contributing $600 into a total pot of $1475. 707 00:32:21,100 --> 00:32:24,540 We need to win an additional $525 after it 708 00:32:24,540 --> 00:32:25,810 to make this a good call. 709 00:32:25,810 --> 00:32:26,440 So that's it. 710 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,080 So that's how you do implied odds. 711 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:32,060 Just make sure you understand what the future pot has to be, 712 00:32:32,060 --> 00:32:34,050 and then you can use your own judgment 713 00:32:34,050 --> 00:32:37,350 for whether that's a realistic amount to win here. 714 00:32:37,350 --> 00:32:40,700 I think here $500 is totally reasonable, 715 00:32:40,700 --> 00:32:42,820 because he already bet $600. 716 00:32:42,820 --> 00:32:47,770 Even if a flush comes, he's probably pretty obligated 717 00:32:47,770 --> 00:32:49,650 to make at least another a $500 bet 718 00:32:49,650 --> 00:32:53,020 or at least a $500 call if he checks. 719 00:32:53,020 --> 00:32:55,890 So I think that's good. 720 00:32:55,890 --> 00:32:58,290 To make it a little simpler for you guys, 721 00:32:58,290 --> 00:33:01,560 I made explicit all of the formulas 722 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:06,850 that we went over for drawing, just to help with the case. 723 00:33:06,850 --> 00:33:10,820 So our normal EV formula is just-- so x is always going 724 00:33:10,820 --> 00:33:12,270 to be what we're solving for. 725 00:33:12,270 --> 00:33:16,790 Our EV is just is the either benefit or cost of the decision 726 00:33:16,790 --> 00:33:17,890 that we're facing. 727 00:33:17,890 --> 00:33:21,950 It's just going to be the combination of our win percent 728 00:33:21,950 --> 00:33:25,000 and loss percent and the win amount and loss amount. 729 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,760 How you determine pot odds is just a decision rule. 730 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,290 Yes or no-- do you make this call? 731 00:33:30,290 --> 00:33:34,350 It's just your win percentage of the hand-- the chance 732 00:33:34,350 --> 00:33:36,230 you hitting your draw, whether that's 733 00:33:36,230 --> 00:33:40,342 greater than the call amount divided by the pot plus 2 times 734 00:33:40,342 --> 00:33:42,800 the call amount, because the bet amount and the call amount 735 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:43,950 are the same thing. 736 00:33:43,950 --> 00:33:46,590 If it is greater, then you make the call. 737 00:33:46,590 --> 00:33:47,920 If it's less than, you fold. 738 00:33:50,690 --> 00:33:52,926 Implied odds, which we just went over-- it's 739 00:33:52,926 --> 00:33:54,300 going to be the bet amount you're 740 00:33:54,300 --> 00:33:58,600 facing divided by your chance of winning the hand minus whatever 741 00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,890 the pot is going to be after you make that call. 742 00:34:01,890 --> 00:34:03,106 I think that's it. 743 00:34:03,106 --> 00:34:04,480 So these are all the formulas you 744 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,615 need to make these decisions. 745 00:34:06,615 --> 00:34:08,989 You can generally remember them when you're at the table. 746 00:34:08,989 --> 00:34:13,350 I think they're fairly intuitive, and if not, 747 00:34:13,350 --> 00:34:15,090 they seem fairly easy to memorize. 748 00:34:15,090 --> 00:34:18,440 Anyway, so let's do a live example of this. 749 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,550 So this hand happened at the World Series of Poker 750 00:34:20,550 --> 00:34:22,770 last year when it was 10 handed, which 751 00:34:22,770 --> 00:34:27,750 means there's it was one hand before the final table bubble, 752 00:34:27,750 --> 00:34:30,940 where they get to-- how it works in the World Series is they 753 00:34:30,940 --> 00:34:34,780 play down to nine, and then they have a break for three 754 00:34:34,780 --> 00:34:36,989 months where they build up the final table, 755 00:34:36,989 --> 00:34:39,530 and they advertise it, and they play it live. 756 00:34:39,530 --> 00:34:42,110 So this is a situation that was very tense for these guys, 757 00:34:42,110 --> 00:34:43,719 and an interesting had happened which 758 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,382 I think is a great example of what we're trying to do. 759 00:34:46,382 --> 00:34:47,340 Anyway, so let's watch. 760 00:34:47,340 --> 00:34:47,610 [VIDEO PLAYBACK] 761 00:34:47,610 --> 00:34:49,870 The very first year of the World Series in 1970. 762 00:34:49,870 --> 00:34:50,828 PROFESSOR: There we go. 763 00:34:50,828 --> 00:34:51,629 No final table. 764 00:34:51,629 --> 00:34:53,670 Champion determined by a vote of all the players. 765 00:34:53,670 --> 00:34:55,510 Johnny Moss was the winner. 766 00:34:55,510 --> 00:34:58,421 Under the gun, Martin Jacobson, ace, jack of clubs. 767 00:34:58,421 --> 00:34:59,920 Very accomplished tournament player. 768 00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:02,560 Four World Series final tables. 769 00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:03,255 Raise. $650,000. 770 00:35:03,255 --> 00:35:04,630 The dealer announces raise, but I 771 00:35:04,630 --> 00:35:07,040 don't think Martin has the right denominations out there. 772 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:08,420 Hold on, hold on, hold on. 773 00:35:08,420 --> 00:35:08,670 Hold the action. 774 00:35:08,670 --> 00:35:08,840 Hold the action. 775 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:09,340 Just call. 776 00:35:09,340 --> 00:35:10,470 Just a call. 777 00:35:10,470 --> 00:35:12,964 So they're making it just a call for $300,000. 778 00:35:12,964 --> 00:35:14,630 By the way, that was World Series dealer 779 00:35:14,630 --> 00:35:16,010 of the year, Andy Tillman. 780 00:35:16,010 --> 00:35:17,260 Frankly, I think the dealer of the year thing 781 00:35:17,260 --> 00:35:18,220 has gone to his head. 782 00:35:18,220 --> 00:35:19,970 He's dealing with a lot more attitude now. 783 00:35:19,970 --> 00:35:21,910 One of these players will join the likes 784 00:35:21,910 --> 00:35:24,690 of John Hewitt, Jordan Smith, and Don Barton 785 00:35:24,690 --> 00:35:27,780 as main event 10th place finishers. 786 00:35:27,780 --> 00:35:30,200 Action on to William Tonking. 787 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,350 Jack, nine in the small blind. 788 00:35:32,350 --> 00:35:33,380 He wants to play. 789 00:35:33,380 --> 00:35:34,470 He limps in. 790 00:35:34,470 --> 00:35:37,200 In the big blind, Dan Sindelar checks his option. 791 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,930 Three for a bargain. 792 00:35:39,930 --> 00:35:43,380 And here is our flop. 793 00:35:43,380 --> 00:35:45,390 7, 8, 10, 2 clubs. 794 00:35:45,390 --> 00:35:47,960 Tonking with a jack high straight. 795 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,070 He checks it to Sindelar, middle pair with a gut shot. 796 00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,180 And he's reaching for chips, bets a half million. 797 00:35:56,180 --> 00:35:58,860 Jacobson with flush and straight draws. 798 00:35:58,860 --> 00:36:01,430 If Jacobson raises under the gun as he intended to, 799 00:36:01,430 --> 00:36:02,930 Tonking likely would have folded. 800 00:36:02,930 --> 00:36:05,500 Instead, they're now on a massive collision course that 801 00:36:05,500 --> 00:36:08,420 could define the November nine. 802 00:36:08,420 --> 00:36:10,800 Jacobson obviously loves his hand 803 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,040 was straight and flush draws. 804 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,460 Unfortunately, he's run into Tonking, 805 00:36:14,460 --> 00:36:16,930 who flopped a straight, but there is a raise 806 00:36:16,930 --> 00:36:18,760 to a $1,750,000. 807 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,910 So the 2% hand bets, and the second worst hand raises. 808 00:36:21,910 --> 00:36:23,410 Lon, this is a game I need to be in. 809 00:36:26,050 --> 00:36:28,580 A dream scenario for the short stack 810 00:36:28,580 --> 00:36:33,500 that still could turn into a nightmare for William Tonking. 811 00:36:33,500 --> 00:36:34,000 All in. 812 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,170 And Tonking announces all in. 813 00:36:37,170 --> 00:36:38,247 Sindelar folds. 814 00:36:38,247 --> 00:36:38,830 [END PLAYBACK] 815 00:36:38,830 --> 00:36:40,330 PROFESSOR: So let's figure out what's going through his head 816 00:36:40,330 --> 00:36:41,600 right now. 817 00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:42,920 So here are all our players. 818 00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:44,580 That's our hero with ace, jack clubs. 819 00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,569 It's a little hard to see when they broadcast it on TV, 820 00:36:53,569 --> 00:36:54,610 but he was under the gun. 821 00:36:54,610 --> 00:36:57,440 He called. 822 00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:58,910 Called around. 823 00:36:58,910 --> 00:36:59,420 He bet. 824 00:36:59,420 --> 00:37:00,670 He raises. 825 00:37:00,670 --> 00:37:03,210 He check raises all in, and now Jacobson 826 00:37:03,210 --> 00:37:05,710 facing a decision here. 827 00:37:05,710 --> 00:37:09,720 So clearly, what is he drawing to? 828 00:37:09,720 --> 00:37:13,280 Flush, and then if he hits that flush is he going to win? 829 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:14,290 Probably. 830 00:37:14,290 --> 00:37:15,879 And then what else is he drawing to? 831 00:37:15,879 --> 00:37:16,670 AUDIENCE: Straight. 832 00:37:16,670 --> 00:37:17,530 PROFESSOR: Straight, right. 833 00:37:17,530 --> 00:37:19,077 And then if he hits that nine, he's 834 00:37:19,077 --> 00:37:20,660 probably going to win with a straight, 835 00:37:20,660 --> 00:37:22,659 although not all the time, because he 836 00:37:22,659 --> 00:37:23,950 doesn't have the best straight. 837 00:37:23,950 --> 00:37:26,430 If a nine comes and then this guy 838 00:37:26,430 --> 00:37:31,590 has queen, king-- or sorry, jack, queen, 839 00:37:31,590 --> 00:37:34,422 he's going to actually lose. 840 00:37:34,422 --> 00:37:36,130 So the question is, what does he do here? 841 00:37:36,130 --> 00:37:39,520 This is what it looks like. 842 00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:42,240 So our hero here raises $1750. 843 00:37:42,240 --> 00:37:49,040 He re-raises $4525 more to being all in for $6275. 844 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,710 So he's drawn to a flush and possibly a straight. 845 00:37:51,710 --> 00:37:53,470 So how many outs do we have? 846 00:37:53,470 --> 00:37:54,980 So you can count partial outs. 847 00:37:54,980 --> 00:37:57,590 You can say I'm going to win half the time if I get this, 848 00:37:57,590 --> 00:37:59,030 just to be conservative. 849 00:37:59,030 --> 00:38:00,930 So you can say all these clubs are 850 00:38:00,930 --> 00:38:03,800 good because you have the best possible flush, 851 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,170 and maybe this nine will work, so 852 00:38:06,170 --> 00:38:08,460 let's count it as half a card, half an out. 853 00:38:08,460 --> 00:38:10,400 We'll win half the time if we do that. 854 00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:12,327 So we have 10 and 1/2 outs. 855 00:38:12,327 --> 00:38:14,660 So our chance of hitting the draw-- how many cards do we 856 00:38:14,660 --> 00:38:16,226 get to see? 857 00:38:16,226 --> 00:38:18,350 AUDIENCE: Why 10 and 1/2? [INAUDIBLE]. 858 00:38:18,350 --> 00:38:22,030 PROFESSOR: Because you can just say, if we hit this nine, 859 00:38:22,030 --> 00:38:23,355 we're going win half the time. 860 00:38:23,355 --> 00:38:25,510 We're probably going to win more than that, 861 00:38:25,510 --> 00:38:29,115 but it's a situation where if he has a jack we split, 862 00:38:29,115 --> 00:38:31,460 and if he has jack queen, we lose. 863 00:38:31,460 --> 00:38:33,880 So I'm not really comfortable calling those complete outs, 864 00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:36,750 and in the end, you can see it doesn't really matter. 865 00:38:36,750 --> 00:38:38,510 But the more conservative move is just 866 00:38:38,510 --> 00:38:40,790 saying half the time we'll win with those, 867 00:38:40,790 --> 00:38:43,620 and with these nine outs we're going to win all the time. 868 00:38:43,620 --> 00:38:45,230 You can just count them as half outs, 869 00:38:45,230 --> 00:38:49,310 or you can count them as 2/3 outs, or something like that. 870 00:38:49,310 --> 00:38:51,760 Anyway, so we get to see both cards because he's all in. 871 00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:52,610 You have a question? 872 00:38:52,610 --> 00:38:55,514 AUDIENCE: This would actually be a [INAUDIBLE] 873 00:38:55,514 --> 00:39:00,416 this will always-- when it's half 874 00:39:00,416 --> 00:39:04,880 [INAUDIBLE] that the other person has a jack. 875 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,854 So under that condition, [INAUDIBLE] 876 00:39:07,854 --> 00:39:10,240 under all other conditions of this [INAUDIBLE]. 877 00:39:10,240 --> 00:39:10,840 PROFESSOR: No. 878 00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,172 We lose if he has jack, queen. 879 00:39:13,172 --> 00:39:15,156 AUDIENCE: Right. 880 00:39:15,156 --> 00:39:18,628 If he has a jack-- he can have a jack, queen. 881 00:39:18,628 --> 00:39:20,116 That's fine, but if he has a jack, 882 00:39:20,116 --> 00:39:22,767 then it's the 1/2, but if he does not have 883 00:39:22,767 --> 00:39:24,690 a jack, then any nine wins. 884 00:39:24,690 --> 00:39:25,940 PROFESSOR: Yeah, that's right. 885 00:39:25,940 --> 00:39:27,430 This is a conservative play. 886 00:39:27,430 --> 00:39:29,262 AUDIENCE: This is a really-- this 887 00:39:29,262 --> 00:39:30,640 is the worst case scenario. 888 00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:31,931 PROFESSOR: Yeah, I would agree. 889 00:39:31,931 --> 00:39:35,110 If this says call, then we're definitely calling. 890 00:39:35,110 --> 00:39:37,950 It's a real pain to have aggressive estimates, 891 00:39:37,950 --> 00:39:39,580 and then it says call, and you need 892 00:39:39,580 --> 00:39:41,496 to wonder [? why their ?] estimates are wrong. 893 00:39:41,496 --> 00:39:44,550 So this gives us a more clear example. 894 00:39:44,550 --> 00:39:47,900 Anyway, so the correct play is going to be to call here. 895 00:39:47,900 --> 00:39:49,424 It's a little bit difficult to see, 896 00:39:49,424 --> 00:39:50,840 but we're going to say that what's 897 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,070 in the pot are all the bets that happened 898 00:39:53,070 --> 00:39:54,450 before he was re-raised. 899 00:39:54,450 --> 00:39:57,620 So that's the original part of $1400, 900 00:39:57,620 --> 00:40:02,540 that one guy that bet $500 for some reason, and then this, 901 00:40:02,540 --> 00:40:08,890 which would be our all in call, which was the $6275 2, 902 00:40:08,890 --> 00:40:10,662 because he bet that, and we called that. 903 00:40:10,662 --> 00:40:11,620 This was a small blind. 904 00:40:11,620 --> 00:40:13,170 I don't know if you saw. 905 00:40:13,170 --> 00:40:16,560 The small blind here just called $500 906 00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,340 and then folded when he bet into him, 907 00:40:19,340 --> 00:40:22,710 so that's dead money in the pot. 908 00:40:22,710 --> 00:40:25,090 So the total amount is $14,450, and we're 909 00:40:25,090 --> 00:40:31,180 facing a bet of $4525, so 31% of the pot we're contributing. 910 00:40:31,180 --> 00:40:33,920 We're 42% to hit our draws, meaning that this 911 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,290 is a pretty clear call. 912 00:40:35,290 --> 00:40:40,590 And when we do the EV, even with this conservative estimate, 913 00:40:40,590 --> 00:40:44,380 it says we're making about $1.5 million chips 914 00:40:44,380 --> 00:40:45,620 for making this call. 915 00:40:45,620 --> 00:40:47,410 So this should be pretty easy. 916 00:40:47,410 --> 00:40:49,668 Let's see what happens, and let's see if this works. 917 00:40:49,668 --> 00:42:00,960 [VIDEO PLAYBACK] 918 00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,300 Boo. 919 00:42:03,300 --> 00:42:04,124 [END PLAYBACK] 920 00:42:04,124 --> 00:42:05,040 PROFESSOR: Anyway, OK. 921 00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:05,790 So he won that. 922 00:42:05,790 --> 00:42:07,810 The guy, Jacobson, I'm pretty sure 923 00:42:07,810 --> 00:42:10,040 ended up winning the World Series that year. 924 00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,130 OK, so we have a bunch of be carefuls. 925 00:42:12,130 --> 00:42:15,110 Do not draw to a hand that may not actually 926 00:42:15,110 --> 00:42:16,860 win when you hit it, which means if you're 927 00:42:16,860 --> 00:42:19,890 drawing to a flush that's not even that good 928 00:42:19,890 --> 00:42:22,130 and maybe dominated by another flush, 929 00:42:22,130 --> 00:42:25,670 you probably shouldn't count all those as full outs, 930 00:42:25,670 --> 00:42:29,040 or the lower end of a straight is really, really bad. 931 00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,040 It's really common for people to draw to that 932 00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,010 and then just go broke, because they 933 00:42:33,010 --> 00:42:35,200 think they made their hand, but as it turns out, 934 00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,780 they made the second best hand. 935 00:42:37,780 --> 00:42:40,840 In addition, don't draw out to a worse made hand 936 00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:42,372 than is already possible. 937 00:42:42,372 --> 00:42:43,830 So people refer to something called 938 00:42:43,830 --> 00:42:47,440 a paired board, which means two cards on the board 939 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:48,315 have the same number. 940 00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:54,180 That means that four of a kind or full house are possible. 941 00:42:54,180 --> 00:42:58,690 So if you're drawn to a straight or a flush, you might not even. 942 00:42:58,690 --> 00:43:01,870 You might be-- drawing dead, is what it's called. 943 00:43:01,870 --> 00:43:04,310 You like you might be 0% to win that hand, 944 00:43:04,310 --> 00:43:07,270 so be careful on drawing on a paired board. 945 00:43:07,270 --> 00:43:10,010 In addition, do not assume you get to see both cards. 946 00:43:10,010 --> 00:43:12,570 It's really common for players to think that, 947 00:43:12,570 --> 00:43:14,820 OK, there are two cards left. 948 00:43:14,820 --> 00:43:16,130 He doesn't seem too aggressive. 949 00:43:16,130 --> 00:43:18,046 I'll probably get to see both cards for cheap, 950 00:43:18,046 --> 00:43:21,990 and then find out that their assumptions when 951 00:43:21,990 --> 00:43:26,810 calling the flop ended up being really bad and costing them EV. 952 00:43:26,810 --> 00:43:31,450 So very rarely does someone check the turn. 953 00:43:31,450 --> 00:43:34,170 Unless the turn is really scary, like you 954 00:43:34,170 --> 00:43:36,840 hit your draw obviously, or it looks like you did, 955 00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,140 no one is was going to give you that for free. 956 00:43:39,140 --> 00:43:41,170 Another thing to be careful about 957 00:43:41,170 --> 00:43:43,120 is don't overestimate how easy it 958 00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:45,250 is to extract additional chips. 959 00:43:45,250 --> 00:43:48,200 It's really, really obvious when someone hits a flush draw, 960 00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,250 because there aren't that many reasons people are going 961 00:43:51,250 --> 00:43:54,080 to call a bet on the flop when there are two clubs on it 962 00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:58,280 and then bet when another club hits on the turn. 963 00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,460 Flushes are really obvious and everyone 964 00:44:00,460 --> 00:44:02,080 is keeping an eye on that. 965 00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,490 Straights are less obvious because a lot 966 00:44:05,490 --> 00:44:09,700 of different boards can have a straight on it so they can't 967 00:44:09,700 --> 00:44:11,530 really just assume that you're going 968 00:44:11,530 --> 00:44:14,970 to have a straight if there are any like four cards that are 969 00:44:14,970 --> 00:44:17,020 near each other by the turn. 970 00:44:17,020 --> 00:44:19,290 And sets, like when you have a pocket pair 971 00:44:19,290 --> 00:44:21,760 and you hit a third of that pair on the turn, 972 00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:23,140 are basically invisible. 973 00:44:23,140 --> 00:44:25,180 There's no way they can put you on that. 974 00:44:25,180 --> 00:44:27,610 So your implied odds for sets are huge, 975 00:44:27,610 --> 00:44:29,890 whereas your implied odds on flush draws 976 00:44:29,890 --> 00:44:32,780 are very, very small. 977 00:44:32,780 --> 00:44:36,150 In addition, on the other end, if you have a made hand, 978 00:44:36,150 --> 00:44:41,510 don't bet so little to give them the odds to reach their draw. 979 00:44:41,510 --> 00:44:43,630 Basically, most of your flop and turn bets 980 00:44:43,630 --> 00:44:46,220 should be like 2/3 of the pot just 981 00:44:46,220 --> 00:44:52,320 to punish them if they want to chase their draw. 982 00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,030 OK, so that's it for implied odds. 983 00:44:54,030 --> 00:44:56,136 So let's move on to fold equity. 984 00:44:56,136 --> 00:44:57,010 So here's an example. 985 00:45:07,810 --> 00:45:10,710 So where you guys following what was going on in that hand? 986 00:45:10,710 --> 00:45:15,760 Basically, I had position pre-flop to make this call. 987 00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,450 Then on the flop I had an open ended straight draw. 988 00:45:18,450 --> 00:45:20,800 He be small enough that I should call. 989 00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:21,920 Same thing on the turn. 990 00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:24,270 I think he checked behind me on the turn, and the river 991 00:45:24,270 --> 00:45:24,830 he checks. 992 00:45:24,830 --> 00:45:25,470 Why? 993 00:45:25,470 --> 00:45:26,920 Why is he checking the river here? 994 00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:28,970 So he's checking because he's worried. 995 00:45:28,970 --> 00:45:30,970 He knows I'm drawing to something because I flat 996 00:45:30,970 --> 00:45:32,052 called, and look. 997 00:45:32,052 --> 00:45:33,510 I could've been drawing to a flush, 998 00:45:33,510 --> 00:45:34,940 and he thinks I just hit it. 999 00:45:34,940 --> 00:45:36,940 So this is a perfect bluffing opportunity, 1000 00:45:36,940 --> 00:45:41,620 because we are basically representing a flush. 1001 00:45:41,620 --> 00:45:43,690 So the question is, how often does this 1002 00:45:43,690 --> 00:45:46,400 have to work to be a good bet versus just checking 1003 00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,860 behind and losing nothing? 1004 00:45:48,860 --> 00:45:51,190 With bluffing, if it's a bad bet, 1005 00:45:51,190 --> 00:45:53,670 we're just going to lose money most of the time. 1006 00:45:53,670 --> 00:45:55,910 So we have to figure out, what proportion of the time 1007 00:45:55,910 --> 00:45:58,840 does this have to win to make it worth it? 1008 00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,800 And that's what we're going to be looking at here. 1009 00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:06,200 The concept that will give us the value of making this bet 1010 00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,800 is called fold equity. 1011 00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,120 So fold equity is the value that you're 1012 00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:13,550 getting in a hand from the likelihood 1013 00:46:13,550 --> 00:46:15,774 that the other player is going to fold. 1014 00:46:15,774 --> 00:46:17,190 So with regard to fold equity, I'm 1015 00:46:17,190 --> 00:46:21,160 saying your showdown value, which is this acronym here, 1016 00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:22,290 is 0. 1017 00:46:22,290 --> 00:46:25,460 You can't win at showdown, which is our situation there. 1018 00:46:25,460 --> 00:46:29,750 If he calls us, we definitely, definitely lost. 1019 00:46:29,750 --> 00:46:31,930 So the formula for this is-- at least 1020 00:46:31,930 --> 00:46:35,370 the EV formula is just-- so it's a derivation of the normal EV 1021 00:46:35,370 --> 00:46:36,940 formula that we always see. 1022 00:46:36,940 --> 00:46:40,040 It's just the pot times your chance of winning-- i.e. 1023 00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:43,540 his fold percentage-- minus the chance of losing. 1024 00:46:43,540 --> 00:46:45,330 And you lose that bet if you lose, 1025 00:46:45,330 --> 00:46:47,480 but your risking the bet to win the pot. 1026 00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:51,200 If we have the chance to win after he calls, 1027 00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:53,010 we can add another variable where 1028 00:46:53,010 --> 00:46:58,330 just, instead of us just losing this bet for the amount he 1029 00:46:58,330 --> 00:47:00,320 calls of the time, when he calls, 1030 00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,792 we're going to get some amount of EV, which is still 1031 00:47:02,792 --> 00:47:04,500 presumably going to be negative, but it's 1032 00:47:04,500 --> 00:47:07,850 going to be a less negative than just losing the entire bet. 1033 00:47:07,850 --> 00:47:11,790 So that's the basic formula for semi-bluffing here. 1034 00:47:11,790 --> 00:47:16,020 Some I'm defining bluffing is a bet 1035 00:47:16,020 --> 00:47:18,750 where it has positive expectation 1036 00:47:18,750 --> 00:47:22,110 because the fold equity is more than 0. 1037 00:47:22,110 --> 00:47:25,410 Just this term, just the proportion 1038 00:47:25,410 --> 00:47:27,910 of the pot that you expect to win from him 1039 00:47:27,910 --> 00:47:33,390 folding is greater than the weighted chance 1040 00:47:33,390 --> 00:47:34,914 of you losing that bet. 1041 00:47:34,914 --> 00:47:37,330 That's just going to be called a bluff, an outright bluff. 1042 00:47:37,330 --> 00:47:39,870 And I differentiate that from semi-bluffing, 1043 00:47:39,870 --> 00:47:43,040 where this is actually negative, where 1044 00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:44,860 if you have a 0% chance of winning, 1045 00:47:44,860 --> 00:47:47,470 it's actually a bad bet, because he calls you more 1046 00:47:47,470 --> 00:47:49,970 times than makes that valuable. 1047 00:47:49,970 --> 00:47:52,100 But a semi-bluff actually becomes 1048 00:47:52,100 --> 00:47:55,940 positive expectation because of your showdown win percentage. 1049 00:47:55,940 --> 00:48:01,140 Your showdown win percentage is sufficiently high to offset it, 1050 00:48:01,140 --> 00:48:03,060 and this is where the value comes from, 1051 00:48:03,060 --> 00:48:06,000 because you have the opportunity to steal pots, 1052 00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:10,754 but you also the opportunity redraw to a winning hand. 1053 00:48:10,754 --> 00:48:12,920 And that's why in tournaments this becomes something 1054 00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:15,419 that you're going to be doing very often, because you're not 1055 00:48:15,419 --> 00:48:17,670 going to always have made hands, but you're always 1056 00:48:17,670 --> 00:48:20,320 going to have something that could become a made hand, 1057 00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,420 and that becomes good enough. 1058 00:48:23,420 --> 00:48:26,300 So how often does this have to work to be profitable? 1059 00:48:26,300 --> 00:48:29,150 So I'm just going to give you a formula here. 1060 00:48:29,150 --> 00:48:31,740 So we're betting $150 into a pot of $350 where 1061 00:48:31,740 --> 00:48:34,340 we have no chance of winning if he calls. 1062 00:48:34,340 --> 00:48:37,030 Our EV, which is just taking it from that formula, 1063 00:48:37,030 --> 00:48:41,300 is $350 times the chance we fold minus $150, our bet, 1064 00:48:41,300 --> 00:48:43,190 times the chance he calls. 1065 00:48:43,190 --> 00:48:46,270 So we can solve this for EV equals 0 1066 00:48:46,270 --> 00:48:48,830 and then solve for fold to get this formula. 1067 00:48:48,830 --> 00:48:53,100 We get $150 divided by the pot plus our bet. 1068 00:48:53,100 --> 00:48:54,840 So this is our bet, because the idea 1069 00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:58,590 is that we are putting $150 into that pot for a chance 1070 00:48:58,590 --> 00:49:00,560 of winning that whole pot back. 1071 00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:04,510 He won't add that $150 to the pot if we win it, 1072 00:49:04,510 --> 00:49:05,830 so that's the idea there. 1073 00:49:05,830 --> 00:49:07,800 So it's our bet divided by the pot 1074 00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:12,050 after we bet to give us our neutral EV fold percentage. 1075 00:49:12,050 --> 00:49:14,950 So that's the chance of him folding 1076 00:49:14,950 --> 00:49:16,510 that makes this a good bet. 1077 00:49:16,510 --> 00:49:19,890 So I think this is pretty cool. 1078 00:49:19,890 --> 00:49:22,040 You can use this to determine what's a good bluff 1079 00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:24,160 and what's a bad bluff by just saying, 1080 00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:27,460 is he going to call this more than 1/3 of the time? 1081 00:49:27,460 --> 00:49:29,340 And just the EV calculation, looking 1082 00:49:29,340 --> 00:49:34,820 at using this formula to prove that we reach a neutral EV 1083 00:49:34,820 --> 00:49:40,590 is just 30% times this $350, the pot minus 70%, him calling, 1084 00:49:40,590 --> 00:49:41,500 times our bet. 1085 00:49:41,500 --> 00:49:42,781 That equals 0. 1086 00:49:42,781 --> 00:49:45,280 And that's our quick-- I like plugging this back into the EV 1087 00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,400 formula just to make sure we messed around 1088 00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:51,110 with the variables properly. 1089 00:49:51,110 --> 00:49:52,609 So are we OK with this so far? 1090 00:49:52,609 --> 00:49:55,150 Because we're going to move on to something a little bit more 1091 00:49:55,150 --> 00:49:56,790 complicated. 1092 00:49:56,790 --> 00:49:59,510 In this one, be bet $75 like he did before, 1093 00:49:59,510 --> 00:50:01,640 but we are raising $150. 1094 00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,230 Why? 1095 00:50:04,230 --> 00:50:08,050 Why are we raising $150 here rather than just calling? 1096 00:50:08,050 --> 00:50:10,595 Yeah, because we have an open ended straight draw, 1097 00:50:10,595 --> 00:50:13,220 where even if he calls, we still could win, 1098 00:50:13,220 --> 00:50:16,340 and that fundamentally changes what we 1099 00:50:16,340 --> 00:50:18,960 need to make this profitable. 1100 00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:21,110 So here, our chance of winning is 16%. 1101 00:50:21,110 --> 00:50:21,920 8 times 2. 1102 00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:23,420 We get to see just the river. 1103 00:50:23,420 --> 00:50:27,560 So it's $150 into a pot of $350 where our win percent is 16%. 1104 00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:30,410 This is still our chance of taking now the pot uncontested, 1105 00:50:30,410 --> 00:50:33,870 and then the 1 minus f percent, the chance that he calls, 1106 00:50:33,870 --> 00:50:37,970 is multiplied by our marginal EV, this 16% times 1107 00:50:37,970 --> 00:50:39,120 winning the pot. 1108 00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:42,330 $500 is $150 $350-- $150 our bet, 1109 00:50:42,330 --> 00:50:46,510 $350, the pot-- minus $150, our bet. 1110 00:50:46,510 --> 00:50:48,440 I guess a $150 here would be his bet, 1111 00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:52,830 but still we have a chance to $500 or lose $150. 1112 00:50:52,830 --> 00:50:55,780 One of the reasons fold equity is really hard 1113 00:50:55,780 --> 00:50:59,110 to teach is because there's no real intuitive way 1114 00:50:59,110 --> 00:51:01,090 to memorize this formula. 1115 00:51:01,090 --> 00:51:04,690 So what I did here is I just solved for EV equals 1116 00:51:04,690 --> 00:51:09,130 0 for our fold percentage. 1117 00:51:09,130 --> 00:51:11,100 So we could solve this-- I just plugged this 1118 00:51:11,100 --> 00:51:14,420 into Wolfram Alpha, and I got the neutral fold percent 1119 00:51:14,420 --> 00:51:19,600 is just 12%, compared to here we need 1120 00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:22,050 to win this bluff 30% of the time, 1121 00:51:22,050 --> 00:51:24,040 and here we need to win 12% of the time. 1122 00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:26,220 That shows the value of the semi-bluff here. 1123 00:51:26,220 --> 00:51:30,420 So to check with EV, you win $350 12% of the time, 1124 00:51:30,420 --> 00:51:34,530 and 88% of the time you have to deal with this. 1125 00:51:34,530 --> 00:51:37,650 So that shows, at least intuitively, 1126 00:51:37,650 --> 00:51:39,590 what the value is but let's see if we 1127 00:51:39,590 --> 00:51:44,530 can figure out exactly how important this win 1128 00:51:44,530 --> 00:51:45,650 percentage is. 1129 00:51:45,650 --> 00:51:51,520 So we're going to have to use calculus for this. 1130 00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:55,140 So when we graph this formula, we see a clear trend, 1131 00:51:55,140 --> 00:51:56,590 and it would be intuitive. 1132 00:51:56,590 --> 00:52:00,250 When your showdown win percentage goes up, 1133 00:52:00,250 --> 00:52:03,410 the amount you need him to fold goes down. 1134 00:52:03,410 --> 00:52:07,110 If you win 0% of the time, he needs to fold a lot, 1135 00:52:07,110 --> 00:52:09,030 but then if you win some amount of the time, 1136 00:52:09,030 --> 00:52:12,280 he only needs to fold a smaller amount of the time. 1137 00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:13,980 So that's what this thing is saying. 1138 00:52:13,980 --> 00:52:15,813 And there are a couple of interesting points 1139 00:52:15,813 --> 00:52:17,550 on this graph which I want to point out. 1140 00:52:17,550 --> 00:52:21,020 So what's this point here? 1141 00:52:21,020 --> 00:52:25,980 It's our break even fold percentage for having a 0 EV. 1142 00:52:25,980 --> 00:52:30,420 So the idea is, if he folds, how you read this is, 1143 00:52:30,420 --> 00:52:32,200 if we have a 16% chance of winning 1144 00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:35,330 if we're drawing to an open ended straight for one card, 1145 00:52:35,330 --> 00:52:38,160 if he folds more than 12% percent of the time, 1146 00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:41,586 if we're in anywhere in this area, it's positive EV 1147 00:52:41,586 --> 00:52:44,220 and for anywhere down here it's not. 1148 00:52:44,220 --> 00:52:46,310 So that's how we're reading this graph here. 1149 00:52:46,310 --> 00:52:49,470 So what about this point here? 1150 00:52:49,470 --> 00:52:53,130 It's a complete bluff because we have 0% chance of winning, 1151 00:52:53,130 --> 00:52:55,310 and you recognize this 30%. 1152 00:52:55,310 --> 00:52:59,510 It's from all the way back here. 1153 00:52:59,510 --> 00:53:02,967 It's when we had a 0% chance of winning. 1154 00:53:02,967 --> 00:53:04,800 So that's that point up there, which I think 1155 00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:08,497 is pretty interesting, but it gets even cooler. 1156 00:53:08,497 --> 00:53:09,580 OK so that's what that is. 1157 00:53:09,580 --> 00:53:14,090 It's our $150 divided by $150 plus $350, which 1158 00:53:14,090 --> 00:53:16,900 is our formula for determining what our break even 1159 00:53:16,900 --> 00:53:19,100 fold percentage is for a complete bluff. 1160 00:53:19,100 --> 00:53:22,470 That's our 30% here, but check this out. 1161 00:53:22,470 --> 00:53:24,790 So what is this number? 1162 00:53:24,790 --> 00:53:26,790 It's our pot odds break even. 1163 00:53:26,790 --> 00:53:28,700 It's the size of the bet that we could 1164 00:53:28,700 --> 00:53:32,560 call if he was betting to make us neutral EV. 1165 00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:33,850 That's what this 23% is. 1166 00:53:33,850 --> 00:53:37,750 It's our $150 divided by the pot after our call. 1167 00:53:37,750 --> 00:53:41,980 What that means is, if he folds 0% of the time, 1168 00:53:41,980 --> 00:53:44,830 I, similarly, did he just bet, and then we 1169 00:53:44,830 --> 00:53:46,230 have the option to call. 1170 00:53:46,230 --> 00:53:47,930 That makes a 0 EV. 1171 00:53:47,930 --> 00:53:52,237 So this graph connects all of those variables for us, 1172 00:53:52,237 --> 00:53:54,320 and that lets us derive something very interesting 1173 00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:56,080 with regard to implied odds. 1174 00:53:56,080 --> 00:53:58,890 We could just figure out how implied odds impacts 1175 00:53:58,890 --> 00:54:01,662 our fold percentage by looking at this secant line 1176 00:54:01,662 --> 00:54:03,120 and coming up with a good estimate. 1177 00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:04,746 So let me work through this graph, talk 1178 00:54:04,746 --> 00:54:06,453 through what we're seeing here, because I 1179 00:54:06,453 --> 00:54:07,720 think this is really cool. 1180 00:54:07,720 --> 00:54:15,290 So to be clear, this blue line is our neutral fold percentage, 1181 00:54:15,290 --> 00:54:19,060 and then this slope is-- it's the derivative 1182 00:54:19,060 --> 00:54:23,920 of how much of a bonus we get to fold percentage 1183 00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:25,920 for every 1% win rate. 1184 00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:29,390 So for each additional one out, each additional 2%, 1185 00:54:29,390 --> 00:54:33,087 he needs the fold 3% less for us to break even there. 1186 00:54:33,087 --> 00:54:34,420 That's what this is telling you. 1187 00:54:34,420 --> 00:54:38,090 When you have a 10% chance of winning, 1188 00:54:38,090 --> 00:54:44,080 you just reduce this amount by 15%. 1189 00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:46,040 You multiply it by the one and a half slope. 1190 00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:48,320 Although it undershoots it by a little bit, 1191 00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:50,200 it gives you a very, very close estimate 1192 00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:55,330 to using these implied odds in real time. 1193 00:54:55,330 --> 00:54:57,350 And then so I went ahead and figured out, 1194 00:54:57,350 --> 00:55:00,250 OK, so that's for a specific bet size. 1195 00:55:00,250 --> 00:55:03,330 How's it work if we look at for a much bigger bet or a much 1196 00:55:03,330 --> 00:55:04,160 smaller bet? 1197 00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,300 I found something really interesting. 1198 00:55:06,300 --> 00:55:09,700 When the bet becomes-- when we go towards infinity, 1199 00:55:09,700 --> 00:55:11,780 the partial derivative is 2. 1200 00:55:11,780 --> 00:55:16,450 You only get as much of a bonus as 2 times your win percentage. 1201 00:55:16,450 --> 00:55:19,160 So each additional out gives you like 8% percent 1202 00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:23,300 reduced in break even for fold percentage. 1203 00:55:23,300 --> 00:55:25,550 And then when your bet approaches 0, 1204 00:55:25,550 --> 00:55:27,740 you only get a 1% decrease. 1205 00:55:27,740 --> 00:55:30,530 So these are our bounds. 1206 00:55:30,530 --> 00:55:34,740 For a pot size bet, it's 1.5% percent your bonus, 1207 00:55:34,740 --> 00:55:37,920 and regardless, you know your bonus 1208 00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:40,030 is going to be between 1 and 2, at least 1209 00:55:40,030 --> 00:55:43,810 in terms of the average across win percentages. 1210 00:55:43,810 --> 00:55:45,180 That's what we discovered here. 1211 00:55:45,180 --> 00:55:46,850 And what this is letting us do is 1212 00:55:46,850 --> 00:55:48,920 it's less letting us create a quick rule that 1213 00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:51,170 implements implied odds. 1214 00:55:51,170 --> 00:55:55,680 So to go over what these rules exactly are, 1215 00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,300 let's back up to a complete bluff. 1216 00:55:58,300 --> 00:56:02,160 So our fold needed is just the bet 1217 00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:06,280 divided by the pot and the bet combined. 1218 00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:09,130 If you want to bet the exact size of the pot, which 1219 00:56:09,130 --> 00:56:13,180 isn't that bad for a bluff, you only need to win half the time. 1220 00:56:13,180 --> 00:56:16,870 And then you can, if you want, scale linearly down to 0. 1221 00:56:16,870 --> 00:56:20,360 You could just say, all right, if I bet half the pot, 1222 00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:22,264 I have to win 25% of the time. 1223 00:56:22,264 --> 00:56:23,180 It's a little bit off. 1224 00:56:23,180 --> 00:56:26,135 It's like 33% of the time, but it's not that bad. 1225 00:56:26,135 --> 00:56:27,510 So this gives you a very easy way 1226 00:56:27,510 --> 00:56:30,240 to determine when you should bluff or not, 1227 00:56:30,240 --> 00:56:32,035 and obviously there's a bit of judgment 1228 00:56:32,035 --> 00:56:33,910 because you've got to figure out whether this 1229 00:56:33,910 --> 00:56:36,700 is a reasonable number, but it gives you idea of you 1230 00:56:36,700 --> 00:56:40,030 don't need to win that bluff 80% of the time. 1231 00:56:40,030 --> 00:56:43,650 And then when you actually have a chance to redraw to win, 1232 00:56:43,650 --> 00:56:46,720 it becomes even more interesting. 1233 00:56:46,720 --> 00:56:51,410 So in general, when you have a draw, 1234 00:56:51,410 --> 00:56:53,085 your value is higher because you still 1235 00:56:53,085 --> 00:56:54,870 have a chance to win the hand. 1236 00:56:54,870 --> 00:56:57,690 And in general, you're going to see very rarely will people 1237 00:56:57,690 --> 00:57:03,000 actually make complete bluffs, because they would prefer-- 1238 00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:04,990 the chance of you winning the hand at the end 1239 00:57:04,990 --> 00:57:08,700 materially makes your value better. 1240 00:57:08,700 --> 00:57:11,900 So a simple assumption is just each 1% 1241 00:57:11,900 --> 00:57:16,730 your showdown increases you decrease your fold percentage 1242 00:57:16,730 --> 00:57:18,300 by 1.5%. 1243 00:57:18,300 --> 00:57:20,940 And your fold percentage are going to be much, much smaller. 1244 00:57:20,940 --> 00:57:24,180 They're going to be like 15% to 20-ish percent, 1245 00:57:24,180 --> 00:57:25,470 somewhere in that range. 1246 00:57:25,470 --> 00:57:27,780 So decreasing that by 5% actually makes 1247 00:57:27,780 --> 00:57:31,630 you quite a bit more likely to win, or at least 1248 00:57:31,630 --> 00:57:34,407 have a positive expectation decision. 1249 00:57:34,407 --> 00:57:35,990 And when we talk about pre-flop, which 1250 00:57:35,990 --> 00:57:37,614 is going to be nothing but figuring out 1251 00:57:37,614 --> 00:57:41,120 semi-bluffing opportunities, we're 1252 00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:45,530 going to be heavily using this type of thing. 1253 00:57:45,530 --> 00:57:47,625 So let's do some examples. 1254 00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:09,000 OK, so what is going on here? 1255 00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:15,570 So just to watch that again-- so it 1256 00:58:15,570 --> 00:58:18,470 looks like the villain raised something pre-flop. 1257 00:58:18,470 --> 00:58:19,770 I had position, so I called. 1258 00:58:24,740 --> 00:58:29,100 And then he showed weakness for three straights in a row, 1259 00:58:29,100 --> 00:58:31,750 I don't know what he has, but it seems to be worth 1260 00:58:31,750 --> 00:58:33,020 taking a stab at it. 1261 00:58:33,020 --> 00:58:34,590 So then what proportion of the time 1262 00:58:34,590 --> 00:58:38,060 does this step have to work to make it a good bluff? 1263 00:58:38,060 --> 00:58:40,750 So is this going to be bluff or a semi-bluff? 1264 00:58:40,750 --> 00:58:41,470 AUDIENCE: Bluff. 1265 00:58:41,470 --> 00:58:41,780 PROFESSOR: Bluff. 1266 00:58:41,780 --> 00:58:42,615 Why? 1267 00:58:42,615 --> 00:58:43,770 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]. 1268 00:58:43,770 --> 00:58:47,480 PROFESSOR: Yeah, I barely beat the board. 1269 00:58:47,480 --> 00:58:52,030 I think my 10 high plays, but only very close. 1270 00:58:52,030 --> 00:58:56,250 So there's no way he can call this with the worse hand. 1271 00:58:56,250 --> 00:58:58,590 So the question is, how often does this 1272 00:58:58,590 --> 00:59:00,110 have to work to be valuable? 1273 00:59:00,110 --> 00:59:03,560 Which is a very common question you might ask yourself. 1274 00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:05,310 So do you remember how to figure this out? 1275 00:59:09,770 --> 00:59:13,000 So the formula is going to be this. 1276 00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:16,210 It's just the bet divided by the pot plus the bet. 1277 00:59:16,210 --> 00:59:18,440 So difference between this and the pot odds formula 1278 00:59:18,440 --> 00:59:19,850 is one bet. 1279 00:59:19,850 --> 00:59:23,790 Pot odds formulas is pot plus two bets, ours and his. 1280 00:59:23,790 --> 00:59:25,860 This formula is just the pot plus our bet 1281 00:59:25,860 --> 00:59:29,560 only, because he never adds his bet in. 1282 00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:31,740 So to figure out our chance of winning here, 1283 00:59:31,740 --> 00:59:34,080 let's just go to this one. 1284 00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:35,280 We just do what? 1285 00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:37,150 We take this side of our bet and divide it 1286 00:59:37,150 --> 00:59:39,420 by this plus this number. 1287 00:59:39,420 --> 00:59:41,458 So we add those together, it's what? 1288 00:59:41,458 --> 00:59:43,200 $625. 1289 00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:47,380 So we'd just take $250 divided by $625, which is what? 1290 00:59:47,380 --> 00:59:48,250 It's 40%. 1291 00:59:48,250 --> 00:59:50,630 So this needs to work 40% of the time to be valuable. 1292 00:59:50,630 --> 00:59:53,520 So it's actually not as interesting 1293 00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:54,520 as I would have guessed. 1294 00:59:54,520 --> 00:59:57,120 This needs to work a pretty big amount of time. 1295 00:59:57,120 --> 00:59:59,980 And given that he's shown so much weakness, 1296 00:59:59,980 --> 01:00:02,170 he's probably guessing that we're probably buffing. 1297 01:00:02,170 --> 01:00:06,710 But anyway, if he calls 25% of the time, 1298 01:00:06,710 --> 01:00:11,220 does that make that a good bet or not? 1299 01:00:11,220 --> 01:00:13,570 Yes, because that means he folds 75% 1300 01:00:13,570 --> 01:00:16,230 of the time, which is more than our 40%. 1301 01:00:16,230 --> 01:00:17,840 So that makes that a good bet. 1302 01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:21,230 And just to plug into the EV formula, what 1303 01:00:21,230 --> 01:00:24,680 is our value from this bluff if our estimate is right here 1304 01:00:24,680 --> 01:00:27,240 that he calls 25% of the time? 1305 01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:30,890 It's $200, so the pot is what? 1306 01:00:30,890 --> 01:00:34,390 I think the pot is $400 here. 1307 01:00:34,390 --> 01:00:37,942 So that makes sense to me that 75% of the time 1308 01:00:37,942 --> 01:00:40,400 we're going to take down that pot, so it's worth about $200 1309 01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:40,900 to us. 1310 01:00:43,740 --> 01:00:45,979 So that's it. 1311 01:00:45,979 --> 01:00:47,020 Let's do another example. 1312 01:01:03,130 --> 01:01:04,850 OK, so what's going on? 1313 01:01:04,850 --> 01:01:07,710 Something happened on the flop, and then 1314 01:01:07,710 --> 01:01:08,680 what are we doing here? 1315 01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:09,769 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]. 1316 01:01:09,769 --> 01:01:10,560 PROFESSOR: Exactly. 1317 01:01:10,560 --> 01:01:15,210 So we're betting $450 into a pot of $775. 1318 01:01:15,210 --> 01:01:19,690 So the question is, is this a good bet? 1319 01:01:19,690 --> 01:01:21,270 Should we have done this? 1320 01:01:21,270 --> 01:01:23,530 And we're going to be facing these decisions 1321 01:01:23,530 --> 01:01:26,130 all throughout the tournament. 1322 01:01:26,130 --> 01:01:32,960 So this one is going to be kind of complicated, but not really. 1323 01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:34,840 Let's see what we can piece together for now. 1324 01:01:34,840 --> 01:01:37,605 So what's our chance of winning this one at showdown? 1325 01:01:40,270 --> 01:01:41,924 So we have 16% chance of winning. 1326 01:01:41,924 --> 01:01:42,840 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]. 1327 01:01:45,750 --> 01:01:49,590 PROFESSOR: It's hard to-- I prefer not counting-- 1328 01:01:49,590 --> 01:01:52,810 you can proportion partial outs to whatever you think 1329 01:01:52,810 --> 01:01:55,270 your real chance of winning if you hit that is-- say, 1330 01:01:55,270 --> 01:01:56,676 that's worth 1/3 of an out. 1331 01:01:56,676 --> 01:01:58,550 But in terms of being conservative and making 1332 01:01:58,550 --> 01:02:00,280 this simple, we could just say, let's 1333 01:02:00,280 --> 01:02:02,100 say we have to hit the straight to win, 1334 01:02:02,100 --> 01:02:04,350 although you can consider yourself having a little bit 1335 01:02:04,350 --> 01:02:06,180 more equity if you just say maybe 1336 01:02:06,180 --> 01:02:10,290 I'll win if I hit a 10 or something. 1337 01:02:10,290 --> 01:02:15,260 So we're betting for $450 into this pot of $775. 1338 01:02:15,260 --> 01:02:18,540 So we know we have a 16% chance of winning this hand 1339 01:02:18,540 --> 01:02:20,360 if we are called. 1340 01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:25,330 If we have no percent chance of winning the hand 1341 01:02:25,330 --> 01:02:27,710 if we are called, what proportion of the time 1342 01:02:27,710 --> 01:02:30,300 do we need him to fold to make this good? 1343 01:02:30,300 --> 01:02:32,610 $450 divided by $1225. 1344 01:02:32,610 --> 01:02:38,310 That $1225 is going to be $450 plus $775. 1345 01:02:38,310 --> 01:02:39,170 Is that right? 1346 01:02:39,170 --> 01:02:40,970 What was the bet? 1347 01:02:40,970 --> 01:02:47,230 Yeah, $450 plus $775 $1225. 1348 01:02:47,230 --> 01:02:50,690 I think this is-- $11-- $1225. 1349 01:02:50,690 --> 01:02:53,760 I think that's right. 1350 01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:54,420 $1225? 1351 01:02:54,420 --> 01:02:59,380 OK, so we have a 37% chance of-- that's our break 1352 01:02:59,380 --> 01:03:01,080 even if we have no chance of winning, 1353 01:03:01,080 --> 01:03:05,120 but then we get a bonus for the 16% chance of us winning, 1354 01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:07,900 and then a general estimate is going to be 1.5 times, 1355 01:03:07,900 --> 01:03:10,060 because we're making approximately a pot size bet. 1356 01:03:10,060 --> 01:03:11,560 We're making it a little bit smaller 1357 01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:13,660 so maybe this is over doing it by a little bit, 1358 01:03:13,660 --> 01:03:16,010 but this is at least giving us an OK estimate. 1359 01:03:16,010 --> 01:03:17,190 This might be a little low. 1360 01:03:17,190 --> 01:03:20,340 It might be like 18%, but we can't differentiate 1361 01:03:20,340 --> 01:03:23,580 between a margin that small. 1362 01:03:23,580 --> 01:03:27,030 So the 60% chance is related to our chance of winning. 1363 01:03:27,030 --> 01:03:28,860 We get a bonus that's proportional to that. 1364 01:03:28,860 --> 01:03:33,810 I'm saying 1.5, which seem to be about in the ballpark, 1365 01:03:33,810 --> 01:03:37,580 to give me 13% chance break even for that fold rate. 1366 01:03:37,580 --> 01:03:42,240 So even if he calls 80% of the time, it makes it a good bet, 1367 01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:45,600 and 80% is a huge amount considering-- 1368 01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:47,055 I don't remember the situation. 1369 01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:52,390 He could potentially have nothing here. 1370 01:03:52,390 --> 01:03:54,200 He definitely showed some sort of weakness, 1371 01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:58,790 so it's totally reasonable that he won't call more than 80% 1372 01:03:58,790 --> 01:03:59,540 of the time there. 1373 01:04:02,300 --> 01:04:05,260 So we calculate our equity just based on the formula earlier, 1374 01:04:05,260 --> 01:04:09,190 which is our chance of taking the pot down uncontested, 20%. 1375 01:04:09,190 --> 01:04:13,600 And then our 80% chance of winning 60% of the time 1376 01:04:13,600 --> 01:04:15,195 and losing 84% of the time, where 1377 01:04:15,195 --> 01:04:19,920 we're winning the pot plus his bet, and we're losing our bet. 1378 01:04:19,920 --> 01:04:22,684 OK, so let's jump to another live example. 1379 01:04:22,684 --> 01:04:23,350 [VIDEO PLAYBACK] 1380 01:04:23,350 --> 01:04:25,460 Junior world champion bowling and horseshoes 1381 01:04:25,460 --> 01:04:27,401 for [INAUDIBLE], Foosball, and maybe poker. 1382 01:04:27,401 --> 01:04:28,400 Sorry, what's your name? 1383 01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:29,674 Mark. 1384 01:04:29,674 --> 01:04:31,250 [INAUDIBLE] 1385 01:04:31,250 --> 01:04:34,610 Mark already plays this final table [INAUDIBLE]. 1386 01:04:34,610 --> 01:04:37,611 I've heard-- sorry. 1387 01:04:37,611 --> 01:04:38,235 I have no idea. 1388 01:04:38,235 --> 01:04:40,360 Listen, Billy is a world champion in another sport. 1389 01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:42,026 PROFESSOR: That guy is pretty cool, too. 1390 01:04:42,026 --> 01:04:43,574 What sport? [INAUDIBLE] Foosball. 1391 01:04:43,574 --> 01:04:44,487 Yeah? 1392 01:04:44,487 --> 01:04:44,987 Yeah. 1393 01:04:44,987 --> 01:04:46,737 Well, that's pretty awesome, as well, huh? 1394 01:04:46,737 --> 01:04:48,410 Yeah, that is awesome. 1395 01:04:48,410 --> 01:04:50,660 PROFESSOR: This is considered very high quality banter 1396 01:04:50,660 --> 01:04:51,880 by poker standards. 1397 01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:54,237 [INAUDIBLE] 1398 01:04:54,237 --> 01:04:54,820 Secret is out. 1399 01:04:54,820 --> 01:04:56,803 Absolutely. 1400 01:04:56,803 --> 01:04:59,208 Jacobson, pocket sevens. 1401 01:04:59,208 --> 01:05:01,960 $650. 1402 01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:03,310 Confirming with [INAUDIBLE]. 1403 01:05:03,310 --> 01:05:06,620 Yeah, that's $650, and that's a raise. 1404 01:05:06,620 --> 01:05:08,820 Politano, 10 trey suited. [INAUDIBLE] 1405 01:05:08,820 --> 01:05:10,880 to Pappas now with ace, queen. 1406 01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:13,495 I wonder if there are different surfaces of Foosball, 1407 01:05:13,495 --> 01:05:14,870 like the French open of Foosball, 1408 01:05:14,870 --> 01:05:16,710 the Wimbledon of Foosball. 1409 01:05:16,710 --> 01:05:18,400 And is there an ace, queen in foosball? 1410 01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:18,900 Yeah, right. 1411 01:05:18,900 --> 01:05:20,250 PROFESSOR: The wort joke ever. 1412 01:05:20,250 --> 01:05:22,320 Several brands of championship tables. 1413 01:05:22,320 --> 01:05:24,492 Billy's a tornado guy, by the way. 1414 01:05:24,492 --> 01:05:26,830 Tornado. 1415 01:05:26,830 --> 01:05:31,290 Billy, with ace, queen re-raised to $1 million $425,000. 1416 01:05:31,290 --> 01:05:33,130 The main event is a grind, but Billy Pappas 1417 01:05:33,130 --> 01:05:34,921 says he doesn't get tired here because he's 1418 01:05:34,921 --> 01:05:37,620 used to Foosball tournaments, which are 14 hours a day 1419 01:05:37,620 --> 01:05:40,280 on your feet for several days. 1420 01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:41,820 [? And ?] [INAUDIBLE] folds. 1421 01:05:41,820 --> 01:05:43,195 The ace of hearts is exposed. 1422 01:05:47,710 --> 01:05:49,330 Back to Jacobson. 1423 01:05:49,330 --> 01:05:51,092 Jacobson trying to become the first Swede 1424 01:05:51,092 --> 01:05:53,050 to make the main event final tables since Chris 1425 01:05:53,050 --> 01:05:54,790 Bjorin in 1997. 1426 01:05:54,790 --> 01:05:57,980 Bjorin tied for sixth all time in the World Series caches. 1427 01:05:57,980 --> 01:06:00,370 Bjorin and Jacobson both born in Sweden. 1428 01:06:00,370 --> 01:06:02,166 Both moved to London. 1429 01:06:02,166 --> 01:06:03,620 Jacobson made the call. 1430 01:06:03,620 --> 01:06:06,100 We're heads up. 1431 01:06:06,100 --> 01:06:08,260 King, jack, trey. 1432 01:06:08,260 --> 01:06:09,990 Jacobson ahead so in the sevens. 1433 01:06:09,990 --> 01:06:11,540 Pappas picks up a Broadway draw. 1434 01:06:11,540 --> 01:06:12,402 Jacobson checks. 1435 01:06:12,402 --> 01:06:12,985 [END PLAYBACK] 1436 01:06:12,985 --> 01:06:14,610 PROFESSOR: So Let's take a look at what 1437 01:06:14,610 --> 01:06:17,830 actually happened before we got to where we paused. 1438 01:06:17,830 --> 01:06:19,450 So this guy's in position. 1439 01:06:19,450 --> 01:06:22,180 He's in the cut off position. 1440 01:06:22,180 --> 01:06:24,030 Jacobson raises. 1441 01:06:24,030 --> 01:06:26,820 He re-pops with ace, queen in position. 1442 01:06:26,820 --> 01:06:30,015 Newhouse throws out an ace for some reason. 1443 01:06:30,015 --> 01:06:31,390 So Jacobson checks, and then he's 1444 01:06:31,390 --> 01:06:32,780 going to make the standard bet. 1445 01:06:32,780 --> 01:06:35,510 So the question is, is this a good bet? 1446 01:06:35,510 --> 01:06:38,050 And then something we can definitely figure out 1447 01:06:38,050 --> 01:06:40,290 is what percentage of the time does 1448 01:06:40,290 --> 01:06:44,340 this have to be a fold to make this a good bet. 1449 01:06:44,340 --> 01:06:46,860 If showdown win percentage is 0, it's 1450 01:06:46,860 --> 01:06:53,620 going to be $1800 divided by the pot plus $1800, his bet-- 33%. 1451 01:06:53,620 --> 01:06:55,730 But if he actually has a chance of winning-- 1452 01:06:55,730 --> 01:06:57,060 he has an inside straight draw. 1453 01:06:57,060 --> 01:07:02,240 He has a 10, and then he has the best possible straight. 1454 01:07:02,240 --> 01:07:07,800 He gets up 8% of the time, reducing his break even fold 1455 01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:09,565 percentage by approximately 8%. 1456 01:07:09,565 --> 01:07:12,620 So it's 8 times 1.5, 12. 1457 01:07:12,620 --> 01:07:15,420 So this minus 12 is at 21%. 1458 01:07:15,420 --> 01:07:17,160 And then this is solving it out exactly. 1459 01:07:17,160 --> 01:07:19,350 I gave them half outs for an ace. 1460 01:07:19,350 --> 01:07:21,830 Maybe ace wins 1/2 the time. 1461 01:07:21,830 --> 01:07:25,520 It turns out that 21% is basically dead on. 1462 01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:26,970 So let's see what happened. 1463 01:07:26,970 --> 01:07:27,750 [VIDEO PLAYBACK] 1464 01:07:27,750 --> 01:07:30,040 King, jack, trey. 1465 01:07:30,040 --> 01:07:31,967 Jacobson ahead so with the sevens. 1466 01:07:31,967 --> 01:07:33,300 Pappas picks up a Broadway draw. 1467 01:07:33,300 --> 01:07:34,305 Jacobson checks. 1468 01:07:34,305 --> 01:07:37,100 Of course Bruno Politano trying to become the first Brazilian 1469 01:07:37,100 --> 01:07:38,400 to make main event final table. 1470 01:07:38,400 --> 01:07:38,979 [INAUDIBLE] 1471 01:07:38,979 --> 01:07:40,270 What happened to the Canadians? 1472 01:07:40,270 --> 01:07:44,230 Our record ten [INAUDIBLE] since 2013. 1473 01:07:44,230 --> 01:07:45,850 Non grata Canadian. 1474 01:07:45,850 --> 01:07:48,430 I think they got too cocky. 1475 01:07:48,430 --> 01:07:52,349 And now Pappas comes out with a draw for $1.8. 1476 01:07:52,349 --> 01:07:54,640 Pappas was rather aggressive earlier in the main event, 1477 01:07:54,640 --> 01:07:56,570 again showing his aggressive side right now. 1478 01:07:56,570 --> 01:07:57,390 Martin folds. 1479 01:07:57,390 --> 01:07:59,010 Pappas will drag the pot. 1480 01:07:59,010 --> 01:08:01,610 Now he's sits just shy of $20 million. 1481 01:08:01,610 --> 01:08:03,680 A world champ in two different games? 1482 01:08:03,680 --> 01:08:07,680 It just could very well be. 1483 01:08:07,680 --> 01:08:10,940 Billy Pappas makes good use of that scary boarded 1484 01:08:10,940 --> 01:08:12,347 take down the pot. 1485 01:08:12,347 --> 01:08:12,930 [END PLAYBACK] 1486 01:08:12,930 --> 01:08:14,980 PROFESSOR: OK, so that's a very common type of bet, 1487 01:08:14,980 --> 01:08:15,840 which we'll talk about later. 1488 01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:17,500 That's called a continuation bet. 1489 01:08:17,500 --> 01:08:19,510 So he showed aggression pre-flop. 1490 01:08:19,510 --> 01:08:21,310 It's checked him on the flop. 1491 01:08:21,310 --> 01:08:23,520 It's almost always going to be the right move 1492 01:08:23,520 --> 01:08:26,930 to bet again on the flop, because you're already 1493 01:08:26,930 --> 01:08:28,490 indicating that you have a good hand, 1494 01:08:28,490 --> 01:08:30,660 and then two face cards show up. 1495 01:08:30,660 --> 01:08:32,229 It's reasonably likely that you're 1496 01:08:32,229 --> 01:08:33,930 going to have at least top pair there, 1497 01:08:33,930 --> 01:08:36,779 so it's uncommon for the other guy 1498 01:08:36,779 --> 01:08:40,680 to try to push up against you since presumably you 1499 01:08:40,680 --> 01:08:43,439 have at least a pair of kings or jacks most of the time. 1500 01:08:46,037 --> 01:08:47,370 Let's do some be careful abouts. 1501 01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:53,069 This is a lot of stuff I notice from the more 1502 01:08:53,069 --> 01:08:54,069 recent tournaments. 1503 01:08:54,069 --> 01:08:56,160 So don't bet too little on a bluff. 1504 01:08:56,160 --> 01:08:57,720 That makes it very obvious, and then 1505 01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:00,890 it's usually pretty clear-- if you 1506 01:09:00,890 --> 01:09:04,960 bet 1/3 of the pot, which is something that's generally not 1507 01:09:04,960 --> 01:09:08,880 common for normal players, it kind of 1508 01:09:08,880 --> 01:09:12,540 screams that you're not too attached to the hand. 1509 01:09:12,540 --> 01:09:14,490 And a 2/3 of the pot bet only really 1510 01:09:14,490 --> 01:09:17,279 needs to win a small percentage of time to be profitable. 1511 01:09:17,279 --> 01:09:19,670 I get the no one likes to lose money on a bluff, 1512 01:09:19,670 --> 01:09:26,290 but 1/3 bet works much less of the time than a 2/3, 1513 01:09:26,290 --> 01:09:29,229 and you actually get much less value out of it. 1514 01:09:29,229 --> 01:09:30,560 So bet enough. 1515 01:09:30,560 --> 01:09:32,050 Bet like you had a normal hand. 1516 01:09:32,050 --> 01:09:34,540 Bet enough that, if someone is drawing to something, 1517 01:09:34,540 --> 01:09:37,952 they don't have the odds to make that call. 1518 01:09:37,952 --> 01:09:39,910 Alternatively, don't bet too much on the bluff, 1519 01:09:39,910 --> 01:09:42,680 and I'm making pretty wide ranges here so 1520 01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:46,360 don't think that I'm contradicting myself here. 1521 01:09:46,360 --> 01:09:49,500 One of the biggest tells for a bluff is someone betting more 1522 01:09:49,500 --> 01:09:52,569 than the pot, just because it means they didn't actually 1523 01:09:52,569 --> 01:09:54,420 think through the numbers, and they're just 1524 01:09:54,420 --> 01:09:57,506 like I want to bet a lot so that makes the other guy fold. 1525 01:09:57,506 --> 01:09:59,630 But in general, don't bet too much, and by too much 1526 01:09:59,630 --> 01:10:03,772 I mean more than the pot. 1527 01:10:03,772 --> 01:10:05,480 And in addition, if you're short stacked, 1528 01:10:05,480 --> 01:10:07,188 don't bluff an amount that, if he raised, 1529 01:10:07,188 --> 01:10:08,780 you'd have to call anyway. 1530 01:10:08,780 --> 01:10:14,594 In which case, you should just bet all in there. 1531 01:10:14,594 --> 01:10:16,510 So don't be afraid of getting caught bluffing. 1532 01:10:16,510 --> 01:10:18,710 So this is a reason people don't bluff live. 1533 01:10:18,710 --> 01:10:22,902 It's because they're afraid of showing down nothing. 1534 01:10:22,902 --> 01:10:23,860 Don't worry about that. 1535 01:10:23,860 --> 01:10:25,906 One of the best indications to me of someone 1536 01:10:25,906 --> 01:10:28,830 being a good player is they'll and show down a bad hand 1537 01:10:28,830 --> 01:10:30,147 and just be like, yep. 1538 01:10:30,147 --> 01:10:32,480 That's how you play poker, and that'll be the end of it. 1539 01:10:32,480 --> 01:10:34,800 So don't worry about-- what you have 1540 01:10:34,800 --> 01:10:36,590 when you bluff is completely immaterial. 1541 01:10:36,590 --> 01:10:39,130 So just having a losing hand that's really bad 1542 01:10:39,130 --> 01:10:41,770 is no different than having a marginal losing hand. 1543 01:10:41,770 --> 01:10:45,792 So don't be afraid of being bluffing, especially live. 1544 01:10:45,792 --> 01:10:48,000 People get embarrassed when they get caught bluffing. 1545 01:10:48,000 --> 01:10:49,840 Don't worry about it. 1546 01:10:49,840 --> 01:10:51,800 So semi-bluffing is great compared 1547 01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:55,350 to bluffing because you have a chance of winning the hand, 1548 01:10:55,350 --> 01:10:57,490 but if you're in position, sometimes it's better 1549 01:10:57,490 --> 01:10:59,270 just to take a free card. 1550 01:10:59,270 --> 01:11:01,040 If he shows weakness and checks into you 1551 01:11:01,040 --> 01:11:04,260 when you have an open ended straight drawn, in some cases 1552 01:11:04,260 --> 01:11:06,780 it's just going to be right to check and get your free card. 1553 01:11:06,780 --> 01:11:08,740 You have to compare your EV of checking 1554 01:11:08,740 --> 01:11:11,380 to your EV of bluffing. 1555 01:11:11,380 --> 01:11:15,660 And don't bluff calling stations because a lot 1556 01:11:15,660 --> 01:11:19,650 of your value from these guys will come from value betting. 1557 01:11:19,650 --> 01:11:21,910 The only way you'll possibly lose to them 1558 01:11:21,910 --> 01:11:23,650 is if you try to bluff them. 1559 01:11:23,650 --> 01:11:28,040 You might be in a situation where 1560 01:11:28,040 --> 01:11:29,950 you're ready to run over calling stations, 1561 01:11:29,950 --> 01:11:32,490 but you don't have good cards and bluffing is not 1562 01:11:32,490 --> 01:11:33,470 the way to go. 1563 01:11:33,470 --> 01:11:35,190 So don't do that. 1564 01:11:35,190 --> 01:11:36,160 Let's wrap it up there. 1565 01:11:36,160 --> 01:11:37,070 Thanks everyone. 1566 01:11:37,070 --> 01:11:38,620 [APPLAUSE]