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KEVIN DESMOND: All
right, everyone.

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00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,080
So welcome to 15.S50,
Poker Theory and Analytics.

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00:00:25,080 --> 00:00:27,080
So this is going to be
Monday, Wednesday, Friday

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00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:28,900
from 3:30 to 5:00.

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00:00:28,900 --> 00:00:32,659
I just got a room for a
review session on Tuesday,

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00:00:32,659 --> 00:00:35,910
Thursday for anyone who needs
to catch up a little bit.

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00:00:35,910 --> 00:00:38,700
The class is here, 4370.

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00:00:38,700 --> 00:00:39,450
I'm Kevin Desmond.

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00:00:39,450 --> 00:00:40,741
I'm going to be the instructor.

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00:00:40,741 --> 00:00:42,380
Paul Mende is the
faculty advisor.

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00:00:42,380 --> 00:00:45,500
And this is worth
three H credits.

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00:00:45,500 --> 00:00:48,300
The game play aspect--
so this is what I did.

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And I think this is really cool.

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00:00:50,010 --> 00:00:54,390
So Poker Stars gave us our own
private league for only MIT

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00:00:54,390 --> 00:00:56,400
people in this course.

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00:00:56,400 --> 00:01:00,730
And my goal here is
to separate people

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who are fairly new from people
who are very competitive,

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because I don't want someone not
to pass the course because they

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00:01:08,460 --> 00:01:10,020
happen to be not
that great at poker.

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00:01:10,020 --> 00:01:12,950
So I created this thing
called the Beginners' League.

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00:01:12,950 --> 00:01:14,680
And these are going
to be Daily Turbos.

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00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,790
Turbos means they're
fast-ish tournaments.

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00:01:17,790 --> 00:01:20,800
And to get the game play
credit, you can cash,

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00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,960
you can make money
in one of them,

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00:01:23,960 --> 00:01:26,610
or you can play in 10 of them.

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00:01:26,610 --> 00:01:29,720
So those who are struggling
can get this game play credit

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00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:34,910
by playing 10 tournaments, which
is about a 10-hour commitment.

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00:01:34,910 --> 00:01:37,510
Let's go into the
game play aspect more.

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00:01:37,510 --> 00:01:39,680
So Poker Stars created
this private league for us,

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00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:40,780
which is really cool.

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00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:45,870
So Poker Stars is generally
considered the most reputable

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00:01:45,870 --> 00:01:47,160
online poker site.

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00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:48,520
That's why we use them.

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00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:50,725
So they have two
different types of games.

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00:01:50,725 --> 00:01:52,600
So they have real money
and play money games.

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00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:57,540
Now if you're in the US,
you can't do real money.

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00:01:57,540 --> 00:01:59,565
It used to be something
that was very gray area.

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00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,130
And then there was one
poker site which turned out

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to be legitimately like a
Ponzi scheme, and as a result,

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now poker in the US is like
much more black and white,

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definitely not OK
for real money.

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00:02:17,220 --> 00:02:20,050
However, their play money
scene is pretty resilient,

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00:02:20,050 --> 00:02:22,102
and that's what we're
taking advantage of here.

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The Poker Stars play
money scene is broken down

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into two different things.

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They have public games, where
you can just go and play

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for play chips against anyone
in the world, which is cool.

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And you can do that,
and I recommend

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you give it a shot just to
get used to the software.

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In addition, you
could do home games,

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which is what we're
generally going to be doing.

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That's what they call
their private leagues.

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So in the private leagues,
in their home games,

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they have this showcase.

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And you might notice
as soon as you log in

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that the MIT League, Poker
Theory and Analytics,

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is already at the top.

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That's not just for us.

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That's for everyone.

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Anyone in the world who
logs into Poker Stars

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and looks at home games
has the MIT League

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at the top, which I
think is really cool.

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So to access this, I'll send
a more specific instructions

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later.

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I gave you guys just the
passcode of what you need.

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But to actually get
there, what you need to do

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is, you log into Poker Stars.

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You go to this button,
which is a little house,

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to access home games.

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And then you want
to join a game.

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And what you do is, you put
the Club ID, which is 557832.

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You put the invitation
code, which you're all

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going to have on Stellar.

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And then you put your real
name, preferably the one that's

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listed in the course,
because I actually

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have to approve everyone
that joins the league,

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and I can't do it just based
on someone's screen name.

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And I guess you have to
agree to some sort of terms

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and conditions.

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So let's talk
about hand history.

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So a lot of analytics
are going to be based off

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of hand histories, which are
just text files that Poker

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Stars gives you to the extent
that you indicate that you want

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to save them down.

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So these are kind of
jumbled messes of text.

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Each line just shows
one thing that happens.

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00:04:05,110 --> 00:04:07,110
And you might get
used to reading it,

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or might not,
depending on how much

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you're going to scrutinize it.

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But more importantly,
you can use

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00:04:12,450 --> 00:04:15,320
these in all the data
analytic programs

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that we're going to use.

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In particular, Poker
Tracker runs off of that.

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You'll load just thousands
of hands into Poker Tracker,

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and it'll do analytics for you.

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It knows exactly what's going on
based on that format, which is

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00:04:29,540 --> 00:04:31,390
generally considered universal.

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And then for the sake of
visualizing these hands--

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if you just read
it, that's fine.

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00:04:37,180 --> 00:04:39,170
But then if you want
to show other people,

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I'm recommending we use
something called the Universal

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Hand History Replayer, which
is something that's free.

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And what it does, it just reads
the hands, and it plays them.

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It animates what happened as
if you were seeing it for real.

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So the deal with
hand histories is,

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if you're a real money player,
Poker Stars dedicates databases

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of hand histories so
that, if you want,

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you can request all your
hand histories at any time.

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For play money players, they
let you capture your own hand

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histories if you want, but they
definitely don't save them.

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So the reason I'm
showing you this now,

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00:05:15,369 --> 00:05:17,160
and I'm going to email
it out to you later,

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00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,520
is if you lose your
hand histories,

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00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:21,300
so you don't capture
them in time,

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00:05:21,300 --> 00:05:23,340
you'll never get them back.

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00:05:23,340 --> 00:05:26,967
So make sure you're actually
capturing hand histories,

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00:05:26,967 --> 00:05:29,550
because we're going to be using
that for a lot of the analysis

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we do.

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OK, so let's talk
about the league.

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And honestly, I
think this league

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is going to be really cool.

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Usually the
evolution of a player

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is they're terrible at
poker, and then they

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start becoming good at
playing against bad people.

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00:05:45,250 --> 00:05:47,817
And then when they actually
start playing for real,

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they get crushed
again because they're

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used to playing against
other bad people.

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So this will actually
hopefully get

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you used to playing
against other people who

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are playing correctly, which is
not something you can commonly

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learn just from playing
around with your friends.

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In addition through playing
in these online leagues,

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you can collect stats
that you could never

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get from playing live.

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00:06:15,410 --> 00:06:22,030
And I think this is why the
live tournament scene is

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00:06:22,030 --> 00:06:24,140
dominated by online pros.

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00:06:24,140 --> 00:06:30,230
It's because no live pro
can get as many hands

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00:06:30,230 --> 00:06:34,350
or analyze their play in the
way that you can do online.

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00:06:34,350 --> 00:06:35,980
It's not even comparable.

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00:06:35,980 --> 00:06:41,500
So this is given-- even if your
whole intention is to only play

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00:06:41,500 --> 00:06:45,330
live the entire rest your life,
doing this type of analytics

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would give you a chance to
learn at a much faster rate

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00:06:48,380 --> 00:06:51,530
and learn things that
you would never see live.

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So every week we're going to
have a major tournament, which

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00:06:57,020 --> 00:06:59,450
is basically going to be
the same structure, maybe

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00:06:59,450 --> 00:07:02,250
a little bit slower, than
the ones we do daily,

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00:07:02,250 --> 00:07:04,470
except they're going
to have real prizes.

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00:07:04,470 --> 00:07:08,970
So Akuna is giving us, for
their first tournament,

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00:07:08,970 --> 00:07:10,270
Beats headphones.

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00:07:10,270 --> 00:07:15,250
And Apple TV, Bose speakers
and a lot of gift cards.

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00:07:15,250 --> 00:07:16,800
And then for their
second tournament,

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00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,770
they're giving us
all of those things

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00:07:19,770 --> 00:07:23,430
plus an iPad Air
and an iPad Mini.

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00:07:23,430 --> 00:07:26,650
But we're not done yet.

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00:07:26,650 --> 00:07:29,480
Because this class is
focused on playing live,

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00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,130
we're going to end the
class with a live tournament

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00:07:32,130 --> 00:07:34,940
sponsored by Optiver
on the 31st, which

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00:07:34,940 --> 00:07:37,240
is the day after the
last day of the class.

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00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:38,990
So after the league's
over, and after you

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guys are good at poker,
you'll have an opportunity

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00:07:42,430 --> 00:07:47,080
to play each other in a live
tournament, where their prize

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00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:51,740
pool is all of the Akuna
prizes, plus a PlayStation

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00:07:51,740 --> 00:07:56,300
4, plus an iPad, plus a
Kindle, and plus a GoPro.

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00:07:56,300 --> 00:08:03,430
I want this to reflect
the type of things

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00:08:03,430 --> 00:08:06,830
an online, multi-table
tournament player would do.

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00:08:06,830 --> 00:08:10,810
How it normally works is,
during the week, and basically

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00:08:10,810 --> 00:08:13,300
every single day, there
is a uniform amount

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00:08:13,300 --> 00:08:15,810
of tournaments that will
just run every single day

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00:08:15,810 --> 00:08:17,320
at the top of the hour.

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00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,240
And these pros will
just grind those out.

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They'll get used
to the structure.

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00:08:21,660 --> 00:08:25,930
And that's where they'll
kind of grind their teeth.

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00:08:25,930 --> 00:08:28,120
And then on the
weekends, that's when

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00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:34,390
you get a lot of the square
money, a lot of the newer guys

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who only play poker
on the weekend.

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00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,690
And those are more gimmicky,
idiosyncratic tournaments,

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but also the highest value.

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00:08:41,940 --> 00:08:46,650
So that's why I'm producing the
tournament structure like this,

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00:08:46,650 --> 00:08:48,360
where the bulk of
your tournaments

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00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:50,980
will be very similar
to each other.

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00:08:50,980 --> 00:08:53,060
But then the tournaments
that really matter

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00:08:53,060 --> 00:08:56,712
will be completely different,
at least relatively different.

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00:08:56,712 --> 00:08:57,920
So that's why I'm doing that.

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00:08:57,920 --> 00:08:59,870
That'll make you
get a feel for what

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00:08:59,870 --> 00:09:01,590
these guys have to go through.

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00:09:01,590 --> 00:09:03,520
So let's talk about turbos.

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00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:09,340
Turbos let you focus on
pre-flop decisions, which

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00:09:09,340 --> 00:09:12,020
are the area where I
think there is the most

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00:09:12,020 --> 00:09:16,360
to learn among people
who are new at poker.

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Basically, all of
your value that you're

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losing in tournament is
from screwing up pre-flop.

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No one gets that right live
because it's really difficult

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to be able to feel comfortable
doing what's generally

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00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:30,150
considered right.

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00:09:30,150 --> 00:09:32,570
And we're going to spend
a lot of time on pre-flop.

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00:09:32,570 --> 00:09:35,250
But these turbos encourage
you to do that sort of thing,

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because live is a
lot of pre-flop,

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00:09:37,300 --> 00:09:40,810
and you're going to be doing
that in the turbos online, too.

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00:09:40,810 --> 00:09:42,840
In addition, no
one wants to spend

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00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:44,580
six hours doing a tournament.

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00:09:44,580 --> 00:09:46,290
So I'm making these
turbos so you can

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00:09:46,290 --> 00:09:48,440
be in and out in 45 minutes.

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00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:50,300
And then you boot up
another tournament,

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or you can be done with
poker for that night.

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00:09:54,620 --> 00:09:56,890
In addition, you have
the opportunity--

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00:09:56,890 --> 00:09:58,770
you can play as many
tournaments as you want.

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00:09:58,770 --> 00:10:01,880
It's common for pros to do
something called multi-tabling

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00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:06,900
which is they'll do multiple
tournaments at the same time.

216
00:10:06,900 --> 00:10:10,150
For the beginners, I'd probably
recommend you just do one.

217
00:10:10,150 --> 00:10:13,090
But for the regular
league, have at that.

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00:10:13,090 --> 00:10:16,290
you want to do like all four
tournaments at the same time,

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00:10:16,290 --> 00:10:18,450
go ahead, to the extent
that they overlap

220
00:10:18,450 --> 00:10:20,410
with each other a little bit.

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00:10:20,410 --> 00:10:20,910
OK.

222
00:10:20,910 --> 00:10:22,576
So that's the end
with the prize league.

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00:10:22,576 --> 00:10:25,890
So the schedule is, we're
going to go through what

224
00:10:25,890 --> 00:10:28,390
I'm calling basic
strategy, which

225
00:10:28,390 --> 00:10:35,270
are the basic axioms that we're
going to be using in order

226
00:10:35,270 --> 00:10:40,122
to analyze the decision
making process in poker.

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00:10:40,122 --> 00:10:42,080
Then we're going to be
doing pre-flop analysis.

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00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,690
And we're going to be doing
a lot of this, because this

229
00:10:44,690 --> 00:10:48,930
is really where the
value add is going to be,

230
00:10:48,930 --> 00:10:51,080
is getting this right.

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00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,750
I think the way
that we can tackle

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00:10:54,750 --> 00:10:57,460
this thing is kind of a
way I recommend that you

233
00:10:57,460 --> 00:10:59,370
learn anything complicated.

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00:10:59,370 --> 00:11:03,450
So we're going to
break this down

235
00:11:03,450 --> 00:11:06,140
into three different sections.

236
00:11:06,140 --> 00:11:10,220
Fundamental concept, practice,
which are actually implementing

237
00:11:10,220 --> 00:11:14,610
those concepts when you have
10 seconds to make a decision,

238
00:11:14,610 --> 00:11:17,240
and then more advanced stuff.

239
00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,550
With regard to
concepts, I'm going

240
00:11:20,550 --> 00:11:23,080
to call this the basic
framework for decision making.

241
00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,250
It's being unexploitable.

242
00:11:25,250 --> 00:11:28,870
You want to get to the level
when you sit down at a table,

243
00:11:28,870 --> 00:11:30,960
every pro in the room
doesn't turn and go,

244
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:32,830
I want to sit at
that guy's table.

245
00:11:32,830 --> 00:11:35,590
You want to be a
slightly winning player

246
00:11:35,590 --> 00:11:39,240
way before you want to
become a huge winning player.

247
00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,200
In order to let you
know the type of thing

248
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,750
that we're learning, I'm going
to label the slides with this,

249
00:11:46,750 --> 00:11:50,000
to indicate that this
is like a basic concept.

250
00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:54,200
Learn this thing
before you move on.

251
00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:58,260
The advanced stuff
is, once you learn

252
00:11:58,260 --> 00:12:03,660
how to do things-- which how
to do things is pretty broad--

253
00:12:03,660 --> 00:12:07,040
we're going to learn minor
adjustments that we can do

254
00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:10,690
to get quite a bit
of extra money,

255
00:12:10,690 --> 00:12:14,700
like how to grind out that
additional half big blind

256
00:12:14,700 --> 00:12:16,710
an hour out of our opponents.

257
00:12:20,380 --> 00:12:22,990
So any real deviations
from what we normally

258
00:12:22,990 --> 00:12:25,680
do, in addition to meta game.

259
00:12:25,680 --> 00:12:27,810
Meta game is always
fun, like anything

260
00:12:27,810 --> 00:12:30,950
not related to the
hand to hand decision

261
00:12:30,950 --> 00:12:32,940
making process, like
table selection,

262
00:12:32,940 --> 00:12:37,100
or bankroll
management, or deciding

263
00:12:37,100 --> 00:12:38,510
whether or not to play.

264
00:12:38,510 --> 00:12:40,010
That stuff is really
fun, and that's

265
00:12:40,010 --> 00:12:42,001
to be indicated
by this ace here.

266
00:12:42,001 --> 00:12:42,500
OK.

267
00:12:42,500 --> 00:12:45,290
So I'm going to label those
slides for anything that's

268
00:12:45,290 --> 00:12:48,320
considered advanced, and stuff
you should only really do

269
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,511
when you get the concepts down.

270
00:12:50,511 --> 00:12:52,052
And then a lot of
this class is going

271
00:12:52,052 --> 00:12:58,700
to be focused on practice, which
is how to actually implement

272
00:12:58,700 --> 00:13:02,700
these concepts on a day to
day basis when you're actually

273
00:13:02,700 --> 00:13:05,020
playing, especially live.

274
00:13:05,020 --> 00:13:07,220
We are not going to have
all the information.

275
00:13:07,220 --> 00:13:09,020
We're not going to
have calculators,

276
00:13:09,020 --> 00:13:12,760
and we're not going to have that
much time to make a decision.

277
00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,810
So how to apply these in real
time, making rules of thumb,

278
00:13:16,810 --> 00:13:18,830
figuring out what
you can just ignore

279
00:13:18,830 --> 00:13:20,930
and what you have
to definitely do,

280
00:13:20,930 --> 00:13:23,160
and then some the
psychology stuff related

281
00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,020
to actually performing
live is going

282
00:13:25,020 --> 00:13:26,940
to be what I'm calling
practice, which

283
00:13:26,940 --> 00:13:31,640
is going to be indicated by
that poker chip with a P in it.

284
00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:36,710
Let's talk about what I'm
bringing to the table here.

285
00:13:36,710 --> 00:13:40,710
So this course is
primarily going

286
00:13:40,710 --> 00:13:42,200
to be from my perspective.

287
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:50,120
And the decisions about what
I'm going to teach you here,

288
00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,160
and the value calls
I'm making, is

289
00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:57,100
going to come from what I
consider the appropriate way

290
00:13:57,100 --> 00:13:58,920
for someone to play poker.

291
00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:02,810
So my background is that I
was an online multi-table

292
00:14:02,810 --> 00:14:06,320
tournament grinder, not
because I was a great pro,

293
00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,270
but because I sat
more than I played.

294
00:14:09,270 --> 00:14:11,810
I was definitely a
person who did not

295
00:14:11,810 --> 00:14:15,346
play every single tournament.

296
00:14:15,346 --> 00:14:17,265
I told you the World
Series of Poker

297
00:14:17,265 --> 00:14:19,540
has like 25 different
tournaments.

298
00:14:19,540 --> 00:14:21,060
10 are Texas Hold'em.

299
00:14:21,060 --> 00:14:24,920
And then they have an Omaha
tournament, and a horse

300
00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:26,740
tournament, which is
a combination of five

301
00:14:26,740 --> 00:14:27,930
different games.

302
00:14:27,930 --> 00:14:30,860
And what is common is
that any pro who plays one

303
00:14:30,860 --> 00:14:32,110
plays them all.

304
00:14:32,110 --> 00:14:35,870
I consider that ridiculous
for someone who's actually

305
00:14:35,870 --> 00:14:40,040
interested in making any sort of
money or career playing poker.

306
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,990
So I'm definitely someone
who prefers identifying

307
00:14:43,990 --> 00:14:46,570
value and monetizing it.

308
00:14:46,570 --> 00:14:48,410
So anyway, that's
the perspective

309
00:14:48,410 --> 00:14:50,500
that I'm going to be
teaching this course from.

310
00:14:50,500 --> 00:14:52,260
I like ROI.

311
00:14:52,260 --> 00:14:54,020
It's a great efficiency metric.

312
00:14:56,620 --> 00:15:00,710
Usually you try to maximize
your ROI up until the point

313
00:15:00,710 --> 00:15:02,590
where it's below
some sort of hourly

314
00:15:02,590 --> 00:15:05,810
that you set for
yourself, because one

315
00:15:05,810 --> 00:15:08,970
of the ways you supplement ROI
is by moving down in stakes.

316
00:15:08,970 --> 00:15:11,140
Usually lower stakes
are easier games.

317
00:15:11,140 --> 00:15:13,110
You should have a
higher win rate.

318
00:15:13,110 --> 00:15:17,700
But that win rate's multiplied
by a much lower number.

319
00:15:17,700 --> 00:15:21,380
So usually you're going to move
around in stakes until you have

320
00:15:21,380 --> 00:15:24,810
a good ROI, but hopefully above
what you consider your lowest

321
00:15:24,810 --> 00:15:28,871
amount that you can feel
comfortable earning.

322
00:15:28,871 --> 00:15:30,870
In addition, I want to
focus on live tournaments

323
00:15:30,870 --> 00:15:33,970
because who knows what's
going to happen to online?

324
00:15:33,970 --> 00:15:36,390
Whereas I think live
tournaments are very social,

325
00:15:36,390 --> 00:15:38,490
they're very public.

326
00:15:38,490 --> 00:15:41,240
Everyone knows who
wins live tournaments.

327
00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:44,980
So I'm going to teach in
a way such that focuses

328
00:15:44,980 --> 00:15:46,465
on these types of values.

329
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:49,860
OK.

330
00:15:49,860 --> 00:15:57,847
So let's move on to some
of the concepts and tools

331
00:15:57,847 --> 00:15:58,930
that we're going to learn.

332
00:15:58,930 --> 00:16:04,050
So we're done learning about
what we're actually going

333
00:16:04,050 --> 00:16:05,360
to be doing during this class.

334
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:07,570
So let's learn a
little bit about poker.

335
00:16:07,570 --> 00:16:11,800
So first thing is, we're going
to be using PokerTracker a lot.

336
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,120
So I'm going to
email out exactly

337
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:15,840
how to install this thing.

338
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,620
PokerTracker has
donated 115 licenses

339
00:16:19,620 --> 00:16:22,350
to their product for us.

340
00:16:22,350 --> 00:16:25,290
And then our next
lesson, on Wednesday,

341
00:16:25,290 --> 00:16:28,400
is going to be Joel
Fried teaching us

342
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:32,690
how to use this thing and going
through some of the analytics.

343
00:16:32,690 --> 00:16:34,240
So one other thing
that I like using

344
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,600
is the Universal Replayer.

345
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:39,510
And what this thing does is it
just visualizes hand histories.

346
00:16:39,510 --> 00:16:43,440
So you'll feed it a hand
history in a text file.

347
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:44,470
It animates it.

348
00:16:44,470 --> 00:16:47,510
It probably does other
things, but it's free.

349
00:16:47,510 --> 00:16:49,910
And this thing's been
around for a while.

350
00:16:49,910 --> 00:16:51,984
I've not even sure if
it's supported anymore.

351
00:16:51,984 --> 00:16:53,400
But it's a thing
that I'm used to.

352
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,470
So this is what it looks like.

353
00:16:56,470 --> 00:16:57,995
So you give it a
hand, and then it

354
00:16:57,995 --> 00:17:01,340
reproduces what you might
have seen if you actually

355
00:17:01,340 --> 00:17:02,110
played that hand.

356
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,400
So let's move on to a concept.

357
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:07,400
So stack size.

358
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,349
So this might seem
fairly simple,

359
00:17:09,349 --> 00:17:12,240
but we ought to make sure we're
talking about the same thing

360
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:13,660
when we go through this.

361
00:17:13,660 --> 00:17:17,520
So your stack size,
it's the value

362
00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,200
of the chips in front of you.

363
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,066
So that's fairly normal.

364
00:17:21,066 --> 00:17:23,440
But we have this thing called
effective stack size, which

365
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:25,981
is what we're usually going to
be talking about when we refer

366
00:17:25,981 --> 00:17:31,320
to stack, which is the
minimum of your stack

367
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,330
or the next biggest
stack after you.

368
00:17:34,330 --> 00:17:36,610
And the way to
think about this is

369
00:17:36,610 --> 00:17:41,680
the number of chips you could
possibly lose in this one hand.

370
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,200
That's what your
relevant stack size is.

371
00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:48,640
And the way you make decisions
will depend on your effective

372
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,530
stack much more
than anything else.

373
00:17:50,530 --> 00:17:53,805
So an example of
this would be, say

374
00:17:53,805 --> 00:18:01,650
you're in a heads up situation
where you're the hero here

375
00:18:01,650 --> 00:18:03,700
on the small blind.

376
00:18:03,700 --> 00:18:07,580
Big blind has,
whatever, 300 chips.

377
00:18:07,580 --> 00:18:10,940
And you have some amount
of chips with queens.

378
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,800
So if you have 1,500
chips, and so does

379
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:32,270
he-- say blinds are like 10/20--
you have, what, like 50 times

380
00:18:32,270 --> 00:18:33,880
the blinds combined here.

381
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,780
So this is a pretty
different hand than aces.

382
00:18:37,780 --> 00:18:39,740
Why?

383
00:18:39,740 --> 00:18:44,090
So say that you raise with
queens, and then he raises you.

384
00:18:44,090 --> 00:18:48,375
So you raise to 60, he raises
you to 200, you raise to 600,

385
00:18:48,375 --> 00:18:51,850
and he pushes to 1,500.

386
00:18:51,850 --> 00:18:55,030
Your queens are probably not
really that good anymore.

387
00:18:55,030 --> 00:18:56,830
It matters how many
chips you have here.

388
00:18:56,830 --> 00:19:04,170
However, if you have 300
chips, you raise with queens,

389
00:19:04,170 --> 00:19:06,810
and then he pushes over,
you can't fold that.

390
00:19:06,810 --> 00:19:11,220
You might as well have aces,
and it makes your hands,

391
00:19:11,220 --> 00:19:13,770
the way you play hands,
materially different.

392
00:19:13,770 --> 00:19:15,970
That's why chip size
matters in general.

393
00:19:15,970 --> 00:19:18,840
When the chip stack
is low, you're

394
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,500
playing these two hands
basically identical.

395
00:19:21,500 --> 00:19:24,850
You're saying-- you're
just playing this range.

396
00:19:24,850 --> 00:19:28,660
However, when we're talking
about effective chip stack,

397
00:19:28,660 --> 00:19:35,050
it's the same thing, where
even if you have 1,500

398
00:19:35,050 --> 00:19:39,667
and he has 300, if you
raise, he's going to push.

399
00:19:39,667 --> 00:19:42,000
You don't have the opportunity
to do that back and forth

400
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:42,720
anymore.

401
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:46,000
So you might as well
have 300 with regard

402
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:47,590
to your decision making here.

403
00:19:47,590 --> 00:19:49,640
That's why we're looking
at the effective stack,

404
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:53,010
because it really matters who
has the least number of chips,

405
00:19:53,010 --> 00:19:55,510
because that determines when
the action is going to be over.

406
00:19:59,650 --> 00:20:01,885
So really, I like this
definition the most,

407
00:20:01,885 --> 00:20:04,670
the most amount of chips that
you can lose in the hand.

408
00:20:04,670 --> 00:20:08,430
It's a lot more, I think,
simple to think about

409
00:20:08,430 --> 00:20:10,970
than this min formula.

410
00:20:10,970 --> 00:20:11,470
OK.

411
00:20:11,470 --> 00:20:14,097
And then we're almost always
talking about effective stack.

412
00:20:14,097 --> 00:20:15,430
Let's talk about Dan Harrington.

413
00:20:15,430 --> 00:20:23,890
So Dan Harrington is a player
whose style I very much like.

414
00:20:23,890 --> 00:20:28,280
His nickname's Action
Dan, which the consensus

415
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,640
is, he just kind of gave
himself, because he's

416
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:37,620
considered Mr. Fundamental, like
tight aggressive ABC player.

417
00:20:37,620 --> 00:20:41,480
So this playing style, this
temperament, tight aggressive,

418
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:48,050
is something that is used to
characterize basic playing

419
00:20:48,050 --> 00:20:49,050
styles.

420
00:20:49,050 --> 00:20:51,200
So let's quickly go
through what those are.

421
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:55,100
So there are two
different axes here.

422
00:20:55,100 --> 00:20:59,020
There's how often
you bet, where bet

423
00:20:59,020 --> 00:21:00,970
means you are
raising the stakes,

424
00:21:00,970 --> 00:21:03,490
so either you bet or you raise.

425
00:21:03,490 --> 00:21:05,920
And then here's
how often you call.

426
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,110
Either you call a lot or
you call not that much.

427
00:21:09,110 --> 00:21:12,360
You can get a good feel for
the type of person someone

428
00:21:12,360 --> 00:21:14,957
is by what box they fill in.

429
00:21:14,957 --> 00:21:15,790
So these have names.

430
00:21:15,790 --> 00:21:17,900
So someone who's
tight aggressive,

431
00:21:17,900 --> 00:21:20,110
you would just refer
to them as Tag, which

432
00:21:20,110 --> 00:21:23,520
is like what Dan Harrington is.

433
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,000
You bet when you have
good hands and you

434
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,100
fold when you have bad hands.

435
00:21:30,100 --> 00:21:33,890
Another possibly winning
strategy is loose aggressive,

436
00:21:33,890 --> 00:21:37,360
Lag, where you certainly bet
when you have good hands,

437
00:21:37,360 --> 00:21:40,000
but you will see a lot
of cards before you'll

438
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:41,100
give up on a hand.

439
00:21:41,100 --> 00:21:44,810
You're definitely
willing to call a lot.

440
00:21:44,810 --> 00:21:49,870
These, type passive, are
not pronounceable words,

441
00:21:49,870 --> 00:21:53,650
so the community generally
came up with different words

442
00:21:53,650 --> 00:21:54,600
to describe these.

443
00:21:57,290 --> 00:22:00,710
So a tight passive
person is weak.

444
00:22:00,710 --> 00:22:03,800
They're someone who you
can completely run over,

445
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,600
because they fold when
they have a bad hand,

446
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,505
they check when they
have a good hand.

447
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,120
I guess they would
be called rocks.

448
00:22:14,120 --> 00:22:16,750
You never need to worry about
having a big losing night

449
00:22:16,750 --> 00:22:17,880
against these guys.

450
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:19,840
So someone who's type
passive is generally

451
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,170
considered playing
sub-optionally.

452
00:22:22,170 --> 00:22:26,100
And then the loose
passive people

453
00:22:26,100 --> 00:22:31,060
are described-- this icon,
which I forget what it's from.

454
00:22:31,060 --> 00:22:35,340
I think it might be from an
old version of PokerTracker,

455
00:22:35,340 --> 00:22:39,140
or maybe it was on Party
Poker or something.

456
00:22:39,140 --> 00:22:41,900
But everyone loved
seeing this icon which

457
00:22:41,900 --> 00:22:46,630
you could label people as,
because a loose passive person

458
00:22:46,630 --> 00:22:48,280
is what?

459
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,390
They are a calling machine.

460
00:22:51,390 --> 00:22:53,450
That's what that
stands for, and it

461
00:22:53,450 --> 00:22:56,820
means that when you
have a hand, they

462
00:22:56,820 --> 00:22:58,840
will call all of your bets.

463
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,510
You will extract
value out of them.

464
00:23:01,510 --> 00:23:04,580
But when they have
a hand, they're

465
00:23:04,580 --> 00:23:06,520
OK with letting you
look at your draws

466
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,290
to make a decision about whether
by the river you have a hand

467
00:23:10,290 --> 00:23:12,300
or not.

468
00:23:12,300 --> 00:23:16,020
There's virtually no
way that these guys

469
00:23:16,020 --> 00:23:17,750
are making money in poker.

470
00:23:17,750 --> 00:23:22,280
I think it would be, like
over a realistic sample size,

471
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:26,590
there's no type of player who
could fit in this quadrant

472
00:23:26,590 --> 00:23:29,640
and be good enough on any
other metric to actually

473
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,330
be making money in poker.

474
00:23:32,330 --> 00:23:36,430
So in general how
we look at this is,

475
00:23:36,430 --> 00:23:40,230
we would call this
Tag guy solid ABC.

476
00:23:40,230 --> 00:23:42,340
That's what I'm recommending
you guys play as.

477
00:23:46,050 --> 00:23:49,790
Tag players, as a
quadrant, are going

478
00:23:49,790 --> 00:23:51,200
to be the biggest winners.

479
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,180
Lag players, someone
who's very aggressive

480
00:23:53,180 --> 00:23:56,130
and plays a lot of
hands, could possibly

481
00:23:56,130 --> 00:23:57,640
be a pretty good winner.

482
00:24:01,260 --> 00:24:03,880
It depends on the
type of game, and then

483
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,720
their opponent and their
ability to pick spots.

484
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,310
But there are a lot
of big Lag winners.

485
00:24:09,310 --> 00:24:13,050
There are not a lot
of big weak winners.

486
00:24:13,050 --> 00:24:17,000
And there are not
a lot of calling

487
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:21,320
machines, loose passive
players, who are not big losers.

488
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,520
So anytime you see-- this is
a definition of someone who's

489
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,460
a complete fish, a huge
donater to the game.

490
00:24:27,460 --> 00:24:31,210
And your ability to
recognize this type of thing

491
00:24:31,210 --> 00:24:33,470
will help you find
good games to play,

492
00:24:33,470 --> 00:24:36,200
when you see someone
doing this kind of thing.

493
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:37,780
Anyway, back to Action Dan.

494
00:24:37,780 --> 00:24:45,480
So Dan Harrington is a
pretty good poker player.

495
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,050
He's been around the block.

496
00:24:47,050 --> 00:24:50,400
He won the main event
back in 1995, when it had,

497
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,060
like, 300 people in it.

498
00:24:52,060 --> 00:24:57,100
He has two World Series of Poker
bracelets and one World Poker

499
00:24:57,100 --> 00:24:58,770
Tour title.

500
00:24:58,770 --> 00:25:00,450
But anyway, so
Harrington popularized

501
00:25:00,450 --> 00:25:02,100
this thing called
the M-ratio, which

502
00:25:02,100 --> 00:25:04,760
was invented by someone else.

503
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:09,080
So the M-ratio was invented by
this guy Paul Magriel, who's

504
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,900
a backgammon theorist,
apparently one of the best

505
00:25:12,900 --> 00:25:15,880
backgammon players in the
world, commentator for the WSOB,

506
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:21,910
World Series of Backgammon,
and eight WSOB final tables.

507
00:25:21,910 --> 00:25:24,220
Anyway, so he's supposedly
really, really good

508
00:25:24,220 --> 00:25:26,784
at math, even by MIT standards.

509
00:25:26,784 --> 00:25:28,700
But he invented this
thing called the M-ratio,

510
00:25:28,700 --> 00:25:30,560
but then it never caught
on until Harrington

511
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:31,570
started doing it.

512
00:25:31,570 --> 00:25:34,360
All right, so
Harrington's M-ratio

513
00:25:34,360 --> 00:25:39,340
is your effective stack
divided by the sum

514
00:25:39,340 --> 00:25:41,600
of the blinds and the empties.

515
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,280
So you'll hear
people talk about,

516
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:47,870
like, oh, I had 10 big blinds,
or 15 big blinds or whatever,

517
00:25:47,870 --> 00:25:49,670
to talk about their chip stack.

518
00:25:49,670 --> 00:25:53,590
But that has a
fundamental problem.

519
00:25:53,590 --> 00:25:56,120
It has a lot of
different problems.

520
00:25:56,120 --> 00:26:02,060
One is, it doesn't
tell the story.

521
00:26:02,060 --> 00:26:07,300
So the usual blind levels
are like 1/2 or 2/4,

522
00:26:07,300 --> 00:26:10,570
where the big blind is
just twice the small blind.

523
00:26:10,570 --> 00:26:12,210
So that's the assumption.

524
00:26:12,210 --> 00:26:17,390
But if you're at a blind
level that's like 1/3 or 3/5,

525
00:26:17,390 --> 00:26:19,650
the number of big
blinds you have is not

526
00:26:19,650 --> 00:26:22,520
indicative of anything.

527
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,970
It's not indicative of how
many hands you can see,

528
00:26:24,970 --> 00:26:28,590
or how much you care about
winning a pot pre-flop.

529
00:26:28,590 --> 00:26:30,610
So using the blinds
is bad, in addition

530
00:26:30,610 --> 00:26:36,310
to, once you start having,
like, if you're 50/100 blinds

531
00:26:36,310 --> 00:26:41,650
and you have an ante of 25, you
have basically half the stack

532
00:26:41,650 --> 00:26:43,960
you had before, in
realistic terms.

533
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,780
Just to get big blinds doesn't,
in fact, earn antes at all.

534
00:26:47,780 --> 00:26:52,180
And that's a major problem
referring to it like that.

535
00:26:52,180 --> 00:26:55,960
So using M seems to
make a lot more sense.

536
00:26:55,960 --> 00:27:00,200
So what it is, is it's basically
the percentage of your stack

537
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,430
that is the blinds in the ante.

538
00:27:02,430 --> 00:27:04,550
So it's like how
many rounds of poker

539
00:27:04,550 --> 00:27:08,516
you can survive if you just
fold every single hand.

540
00:27:08,516 --> 00:27:10,140
Of course, you're
not going to do that.

541
00:27:10,140 --> 00:27:12,490
Although I think that's what
he's actually getting at,

542
00:27:12,490 --> 00:27:15,270
because he uses M to
refer to when you have

543
00:27:15,270 --> 00:27:17,750
to make a move, which is not
generally how I recommend

544
00:27:17,750 --> 00:27:18,780
you do it.

545
00:27:18,780 --> 00:27:21,320
I think it's more important,
because it means how important

546
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:22,740
the blinds are to your stack.

547
00:27:25,930 --> 00:27:28,410
The only reason anyone
plays any hand of poker

548
00:27:28,410 --> 00:27:31,410
is because someone
wants to win the blind.

549
00:27:31,410 --> 00:27:36,040
So even if you have
kings, to some extent,

550
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,720
if you could win the
blinds, 99% of the time

551
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,110
you would just do that.

552
00:27:40,110 --> 00:27:43,100
You don't really all
the time want someone

553
00:27:43,100 --> 00:27:45,064
to go up against you.

554
00:27:45,064 --> 00:27:47,230
So the blinds are really
driving the decision making

555
00:27:47,230 --> 00:27:51,240
process, at least pre-flop.

556
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,280
And the percentage
that those blinds

557
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,400
are of your stack matter a lot.

558
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:59,520
If they're 1% of your
stack, if your M is 100,

559
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,390
the blind basically
don't matter at all.

560
00:28:01,390 --> 00:28:03,680
Whatever happens
after the blinds

561
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,020
is going to materially
impact your decision.

562
00:28:06,020 --> 00:28:09,690
Where if your M is 2, and the
blinds are half your stack,

563
00:28:09,690 --> 00:28:11,327
winning those seems
really important.

564
00:28:11,327 --> 00:28:13,410
You should do whatever you
can to kind of maximize

565
00:28:13,410 --> 00:28:14,850
your chance of winning that.

566
00:28:14,850 --> 00:28:20,710
So that's why M is
a good ratio here.

567
00:28:20,710 --> 00:28:22,940
And then, in addition,
for tournaments,

568
00:28:22,940 --> 00:28:28,000
it makes it much easier
to talk about hands

569
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,220
without having to worry
about all the different parts

570
00:28:31,220 --> 00:28:33,020
of the tournament life cycle.

571
00:28:33,020 --> 00:28:37,812
If you have 1,500 chips
and it's 50/100 blinds,

572
00:28:37,812 --> 00:28:39,520
you can basically make
the same decisions

573
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,400
as if you have 10 times as
many chips at a level that's

574
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,494
10 times as high blinds.

575
00:28:46,494 --> 00:28:47,910
You could just
divide in your head

576
00:28:47,910 --> 00:28:49,451
and basically make
the same decision.

577
00:28:49,451 --> 00:28:52,820
You don't need to
worry about doing

578
00:28:52,820 --> 00:28:56,010
anything different as a
result of having more chips.

579
00:28:56,010 --> 00:28:58,400
So Harrington
invented or brought up

580
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,880
a bunch of other things
that never really caught on.

581
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,380
He invented a thing called
the queue ratio, which

582
00:29:04,380 --> 00:29:09,510
is your stack size divided
by the average stack size

583
00:29:09,510 --> 00:29:10,750
in the tournament.

584
00:29:10,750 --> 00:29:14,500
So I guess you might use this
to get an idea of how far behind

585
00:29:14,500 --> 00:29:15,910
you are in the tournament.

586
00:29:15,910 --> 00:29:17,456
Like if your queue
is 5, you don't

587
00:29:17,456 --> 00:29:18,580
need to be that aggressive.

588
00:29:18,580 --> 00:29:21,090
But if your queue
is .2, you have

589
00:29:21,090 --> 00:29:23,340
a lot of catching up to do
before you're realistically

590
00:29:23,340 --> 00:29:25,660
going to be anywhere
near the money.

591
00:29:25,660 --> 00:29:27,910
I don't really make
decisions based on that.

592
00:29:27,910 --> 00:29:29,250
I think the community doesn't.

593
00:29:29,250 --> 00:29:33,070
So it never really
caught on for anything.

594
00:29:33,070 --> 00:29:36,200
I've never actually
heard anyone use that.

595
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:37,700
So he came up with
this thing called

596
00:29:37,700 --> 00:29:41,210
effective M, which
makes sense, if you

597
00:29:41,210 --> 00:29:43,350
look at M from his perspective.

598
00:29:43,350 --> 00:29:51,010
Effective M, it's your M
divided by-- you multiply by how

599
00:29:51,010 --> 00:29:52,870
shorthanded your table is.

600
00:29:52,870 --> 00:29:56,230
And it gives you the
equivalent of the number

601
00:29:56,230 --> 00:29:59,310
of 10-handed tables
you could survive.

602
00:29:59,310 --> 00:30:01,780
It just means that,
say you have 10 Ms,

603
00:30:01,780 --> 00:30:05,070
you could survive
10 rounds of blinds.

604
00:30:05,070 --> 00:30:07,020
If you have three
people at your table,

605
00:30:07,020 --> 00:30:09,950
you can't survive for
another like six hours

606
00:30:09,950 --> 00:30:12,630
because you actually pay
the blind every other hand.

607
00:30:12,630 --> 00:30:14,020
That's what
effective M is doing.

608
00:30:14,020 --> 00:30:17,780
It reduces your
M proportionally.

609
00:30:17,780 --> 00:30:21,420
Since he's looking at this
from the perspective of when

610
00:30:21,420 --> 00:30:25,780
you need to start making
moves, it kind of makes sense

611
00:30:25,780 --> 00:30:28,350
that your M would be reduced
if you're shorthanded.

612
00:30:28,350 --> 00:30:31,520
But I look at M from the
perspective of how valuable it

613
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,950
is in terms of blinds.

614
00:30:33,950 --> 00:30:35,280
So I don't really use that.

615
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,070
I don't know anyone who really
uses effective M either.

616
00:30:38,070 --> 00:30:41,276
But he invented them, and maybe
they'll catch on eventually.

617
00:30:41,276 --> 00:30:43,150
So I think that's going
to be done for today.

618
00:30:43,150 --> 00:30:46,140
Thanks, everyone, for
a good first lecture.