1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:04,940 Let us now move from the abstract to the concrete. 2 00:00:04,940 --> 00:00:07,590 Recall the example that we discussed earlier where we 3 00:00:07,590 --> 00:00:10,200 have two rolls of a tetrahedral die. 4 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:12,380 So there are 16 possible outcomes 5 00:00:12,380 --> 00:00:15,070 illustrated in this diagram. 6 00:00:15,070 --> 00:00:19,370 To continue, now we need to specify a probability law, 7 00:00:19,370 --> 00:00:22,070 some kind of probability assignment. 8 00:00:22,070 --> 00:00:25,620 To keep things simple, we're going to make the assumption 9 00:00:25,620 --> 00:00:30,390 that the 16 possible outcomes are all equally likely. 10 00:00:30,390 --> 00:00:35,570 And each outcome has a probability of 1 over 16. 11 00:00:35,570 --> 00:00:38,870 Given this assumption, we will now proceed to calculate 12 00:00:38,870 --> 00:00:41,330 certain probabilities. 13 00:00:41,330 --> 00:00:46,190 Let us look first at the probability that X, which 14 00:00:46,190 --> 00:00:50,790 stands the result of the first roll, is equal to 1. 15 00:00:50,790 --> 00:00:54,590 The way to calculate this probability is to identify 16 00:00:54,590 --> 00:00:59,330 what exactly that event is in our picture of the sample 17 00:00:59,330 --> 00:01:02,130 space, and then calculate. 18 00:01:02,130 --> 00:01:06,600 The event that X is equal to 1 can happen in four different 19 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:12,930 ways that correspond to these four particular outcomes. 20 00:01:12,930 --> 00:01:17,330 Each one of these outcomes has a probability of 1 over 16. 21 00:01:17,330 --> 00:01:21,470 The probability of this event is the sum of the 22 00:01:21,470 --> 00:01:24,130 probabilities of the outcomes that it contains. 23 00:01:24,130 --> 00:01:32,740 So it is 4 times 1 over 16, equal to one fourth. 24 00:01:32,740 --> 00:01:37,780 Let now Z stand for the smaller of the two numbers 25 00:01:37,780 --> 00:01:40,550 that came up in our two rolls. 26 00:01:40,550 --> 00:01:49,460 So for example, if X is 2 and Y is equal to 3, then Z is 27 00:01:49,460 --> 00:01:53,860 equal to 2, which is the smaller of the two. 28 00:01:53,860 --> 00:01:57,400 Let us try to calculate the probability that the smaller 29 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:01,050 of the two outcomes is equal to 4. 30 00:02:01,050 --> 00:02:05,380 Now for the smaller of the two outcomes to be equal to 4, we 31 00:02:05,380 --> 00:02:10,370 must have that both X and Y are equal to 4. 32 00:02:10,370 --> 00:02:15,000 So this outcome here is the only way that this particular 33 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,030 event can happen. 34 00:02:17,030 --> 00:02:20,940 Since there's only one outcome that makes the event happen, 35 00:02:20,940 --> 00:02:23,760 the probability of this event is the probability of that 36 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,695 outcome and is equal to 1 over 16. 37 00:02:29,310 --> 00:02:32,760 For another example, let's calculate the probability that 38 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,220 the minimum is equal to 2. 39 00:02:35,220 --> 00:02:37,670 What does it mean that the minimum is equal to 2? 40 00:02:37,670 --> 00:02:42,490 It means that one of the dice resulted in a 2, and the other 41 00:02:42,490 --> 00:02:46,100 die resulted in a number that's 2 or larger. 42 00:02:46,100 --> 00:02:48,850 So we could have both equal to 2. 43 00:02:48,850 --> 00:02:53,340 We could have X equal to 2, but Y larger. 44 00:02:53,340 --> 00:02:59,100 Or we could have Y equal to 2 and X something larger. 45 00:02:59,100 --> 00:03:03,360 This green event, this green set, is the set of all 46 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,770 outcomes for which the minimum of the two 47 00:03:06,770 --> 00:03:08,300 rolls is equal to 2. 48 00:03:08,300 --> 00:03:11,060 There's a total of five such outcomes. 49 00:03:11,060 --> 00:03:14,610 Each one of them has probably 1 over 16. 50 00:03:14,610 --> 00:03:18,480 And we have discussed that for finite sets, the probability 51 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:22,370 of a finite set is the sum of the probabilities of the 52 00:03:22,370 --> 00:03:23,780 elements of that set. 53 00:03:23,780 --> 00:03:26,720 So we have five elements here, each one with 54 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:28,760 probability 1 over 16. 55 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:33,210 And this is the answer to this problem. 56 00:03:33,210 --> 00:03:39,130 This particular example that we saw here is a special case 57 00:03:39,130 --> 00:03:42,920 of what is called a discrete uniform law. 58 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,770 In a discrete uniform law, we have a sample 59 00:03:45,770 --> 00:03:47,925 space which is finite. 60 00:03:50,630 --> 00:03:53,260 And it has n elements. 61 00:03:53,260 --> 00:03:58,030 And we assume that these n elements are equally likely. 62 00:03:58,030 --> 00:04:01,100 Now since the probability of omega, the probability of the 63 00:04:01,100 --> 00:04:06,170 entire sample space, is equal to 1, this means that each one 64 00:04:06,170 --> 00:04:10,980 of these elements must have probability 1 over n. 65 00:04:10,980 --> 00:04:14,220 That's the only way that the sum of the probabilities of 66 00:04:14,220 --> 00:04:18,610 the different outcomes would be equal to 1 as required by 67 00:04:18,610 --> 00:04:21,329 the normalization axiom. 68 00:04:21,329 --> 00:04:25,630 Consider now some subset of the sample space, an event A 69 00:04:25,630 --> 00:04:27,840 that, exactly k elements. 70 00:04:27,840 --> 00:04:31,320 What is the probability of the set A? 71 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,980 It's the sum of the probabilities of its elements. 72 00:04:34,980 --> 00:04:37,340 There are k elements. 73 00:04:37,340 --> 00:04:41,760 And each one of them has a probability of 1 over n. 74 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,570 And this way we can find the probability of the set A. 75 00:04:45,570 --> 00:04:51,070 So when we have a discrete uniform probability law, we 76 00:04:51,070 --> 00:04:55,110 can calculate probabilities by simply counting the number of 77 00:04:55,110 --> 00:04:59,120 elements of omega, which is n, finding the number n, and 78 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,510 counting the number of elements of the set A. That's 79 00:05:02,510 --> 00:05:04,740 the reason why counting will turn out to be 80 00:05:04,740 --> 00:05:06,110 an important skill. 81 00:05:06,110 --> 00:05:09,740 And there will be a whole lecture devoted to this 82 00:05:09,740 --> 00:05:10,990 particular topic.