1 00:00:00,070 --> 00:00:03,670 We now note some elementary properties of expectations. 2 00:00:03,670 --> 00:00:06,710 These will be some properties that are extremely natural and 3 00:00:06,710 --> 00:00:11,650 intuitive, but even so, they are worth recording. 4 00:00:11,650 --> 00:00:13,050 The first property is the following. 5 00:00:13,050 --> 00:00:17,170 If you have a random variable which is non-negative, then 6 00:00:17,170 --> 00:00:19,950 its expected value is also non-negative. 7 00:00:19,950 --> 00:00:21,830 What does it mean that the random variable is 8 00:00:21,830 --> 00:00:23,220 non-negative? 9 00:00:23,220 --> 00:00:27,340 What it means is that for all possible outcomes of the 10 00:00:27,340 --> 00:00:31,680 experiment, no matter what the outcome is, the associated 11 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,540 numerical value of the random variable is a 12 00:00:34,540 --> 00:00:36,570 non-negative number. 13 00:00:36,570 --> 00:00:39,080 What's the implication of this? 14 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,070 When we calculate an expectation we're adding over 15 00:00:42,070 --> 00:00:45,630 all the possible numerical values of the random variable. 16 00:00:45,630 --> 00:00:49,270 All the possible numerical values of the random variable 17 00:00:49,270 --> 00:00:52,320 under this assumption are non-negative. 18 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,650 Probabilities are also non-negative. 19 00:00:55,650 --> 00:00:59,440 So we have a sum of non-negative entries and 20 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,580 therefore, the expected value is also going to be 21 00:01:02,580 --> 00:01:05,230 non-negative. 22 00:01:05,230 --> 00:01:09,870 The next property is a generalization of this. 23 00:01:09,870 --> 00:01:14,260 Consider now a random variable that has the property that no 24 00:01:14,260 --> 00:01:19,440 matter what the outcome of the experiment is, the value of 25 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:23,090 this random variable lies in the range between two 26 00:01:23,090 --> 00:01:25,330 constants, a and b. 27 00:01:25,330 --> 00:01:27,580 In this case, we argue as follows. 28 00:01:27,580 --> 00:01:32,000 The expected value, by definition, is a sum over all 29 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:36,750 possible values of the random variable of certain terms. 30 00:01:36,750 --> 00:01:40,570 Now, the possible numerical values of the random variable 31 00:01:40,570 --> 00:01:46,190 are all of them at least as large as a, so this gives us 32 00:01:46,190 --> 00:01:49,780 an inequality of this type. 33 00:01:49,780 --> 00:01:53,920 Then, we pull a factor of a outside of the summation. 34 00:01:58,740 --> 00:02:05,660 And finally, we recall that the sum of a PMF over all 35 00:02:05,660 --> 00:02:09,759 possible values of little x is equal to 1. 36 00:02:09,759 --> 00:02:11,290 Why is that the case? 37 00:02:11,290 --> 00:02:13,600 Well, these are the probabilities for the 38 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,360 different numerical values of the random variable. 39 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,650 The sum of the probabilities of all the possible numerical 40 00:02:19,650 --> 00:02:23,260 values has to be equal to 1, because that exhausts all the 41 00:02:23,260 --> 00:02:24,440 possibilities. 42 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:28,186 So we obtain a times 1, which is a. 43 00:02:28,186 --> 00:02:32,079 So, what we have proved is that the expected value is at 44 00:02:32,079 --> 00:02:34,210 least large as a. 45 00:02:34,210 --> 00:02:37,110 You can use a symmetrical argument where the 46 00:02:37,110 --> 00:02:40,200 inequalities will go the opposite way and where a's 47 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,540 will be replaced by b's, to prove the second 48 00:02:43,540 --> 00:02:46,870 inequality, as well. 49 00:02:46,870 --> 00:02:50,450 The last fact we want to take note of is the following. 50 00:02:50,450 --> 00:02:53,600 If we have a constant and we take its expected value, we 51 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:55,530 obtain the same constant. 52 00:02:55,530 --> 00:02:56,980 What does that mean? 53 00:02:56,980 --> 00:02:59,540 We have only been talking about expected values of 54 00:02:59,540 --> 00:03:00,440 random variables. 55 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,750 What does it mean to take the expected value of a constant? 56 00:03:03,750 --> 00:03:08,100 Well, as we discussed earlier, we can think of a constant as 57 00:03:08,100 --> 00:03:12,560 being a random variable of a very special type. 58 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:16,690 A random variable whose PMF takes this form. 59 00:03:16,690 --> 00:03:20,280 This random variable can take only a single value and the 60 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:24,230 probability of that single value is equal to 1. 61 00:03:24,230 --> 00:03:27,540 This means that in the formula for the expected value there's 62 00:03:27,540 --> 00:03:33,120 going to be only one term in this summation, and that term 63 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:40,190 is going to be c times the probability that our random 64 00:03:40,190 --> 00:03:44,820 variable takes the value c. 65 00:03:44,820 --> 00:03:48,280 Now, that probability is equal to 1, and we're left with c. 66 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:48,335 So this equality makes sense, of course, as long as you 67 00:03:48,335 --> 00:03:48,390 understand that a constant can also be viewed as a random 68 00:03:48,390 --> 00:03:48,420 variable of a very degenerate type. 69 00:03:48,420 --> 00:03:48,454 Now, intuitively, of course, it's certainly clear 70 00:03:48,454 --> 00:03:48,475 what this is saying. 71 00:03:48,475 --> 00:03:48,540 That if a certain quantity is always equal to c, then on the 72 00:03:48,540 --> 00:03:49,790 average, it will also be equal to c.