1 00:00:00,890 --> 00:00:02,890 We will now consider an operation 2 00:00:02,890 --> 00:00:06,380 that is, in some sense, the opposite of merging. 3 00:00:06,380 --> 00:00:10,960 We have a node, and traffic arrives to that node. 4 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:14,820 And each time that we have an arrival, we flip a coin. 5 00:00:14,820 --> 00:00:18,000 And with probability q, we send that arrival 6 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,410 to one particular stream. 7 00:00:20,410 --> 00:00:22,830 And with probability 1 minus q, we 8 00:00:22,830 --> 00:00:25,380 send the arrival to another stream. 9 00:00:25,380 --> 00:00:27,660 So we get two streams that are formed 10 00:00:27,660 --> 00:00:30,970 by taking the original stream and splitting it 11 00:00:30,970 --> 00:00:32,750 into two pieces. 12 00:00:32,750 --> 00:00:35,290 And as an example, these might be 13 00:00:35,290 --> 00:00:38,040 arrivals at a department store. 14 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,950 And one stream corresponds to the people 15 00:00:40,950 --> 00:00:44,220 who go to the clothes section of the department store, 16 00:00:44,220 --> 00:00:46,680 whereas the other stream corresponds to the people that 17 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:50,840 go to all of the other sections of the store. 18 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:55,030 So let us now make our model a little more precise. 19 00:00:55,030 --> 00:00:56,950 We have a Bernoulli process, which 20 00:00:56,950 --> 00:00:59,390 is independent across time. 21 00:00:59,390 --> 00:01:03,590 We also use an independent coin flip 22 00:01:03,590 --> 00:01:06,540 to deal with each one of the arrivals. 23 00:01:06,540 --> 00:01:10,135 But we will also make one additional assumption, namely 24 00:01:10,135 --> 00:01:12,789 that the Bernoulli process is also 25 00:01:12,789 --> 00:01:17,320 independent from the process of coin flips. 26 00:01:17,320 --> 00:01:19,720 With this assumption in place, let us now 27 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,880 continue, and let us draw a picture. 28 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,850 We have a Bernoulli process with parameter p, 29 00:01:25,850 --> 00:01:30,360 and arrivals get recorded at certain times. 30 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,450 Each time that there is an arrival, we will flip a coin. 31 00:01:34,450 --> 00:01:36,810 And with probability q, the arrival 32 00:01:36,810 --> 00:01:39,009 will be sent to that stream. 33 00:01:39,009 --> 00:01:41,610 With probability 1 minus q, the arrival 34 00:01:41,610 --> 00:01:43,700 will be sent to the other stream. 35 00:01:43,700 --> 00:01:47,110 So one possible outcome of the experiment 36 00:01:47,110 --> 00:01:51,140 might be this one, where these two arrivals were 37 00:01:51,140 --> 00:01:55,530 sent to this stream and these two arrivals were 38 00:01:55,530 --> 00:01:57,450 sent to the top stream. 39 00:01:57,450 --> 00:02:01,910 And we have these probabilities q and 1 minus q 40 00:02:01,910 --> 00:02:06,310 of sending the arrivals to one or the other stream. 41 00:02:06,310 --> 00:02:11,070 What kind of process is this one? 42 00:02:11,070 --> 00:02:13,900 We argue it is a Bernoulli process. 43 00:02:13,900 --> 00:02:16,710 First, we need to check independence. 44 00:02:16,710 --> 00:02:20,700 Here, the argument is more or less the same as in the case 45 00:02:20,700 --> 00:02:23,590 when we studied the merging of processes. 46 00:02:23,590 --> 00:02:29,250 For example, if we look at two different slots and we ask, 47 00:02:29,250 --> 00:02:33,880 how is the event at that slot and at that slot determined? 48 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,160 Well, what happens in this slot is determined 49 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,120 by whether we had an arrival here 50 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:44,760 and what happened to the outcome of the coin flip at that time. 51 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,030 What happens in this slot is determined 52 00:02:47,030 --> 00:02:49,550 by whether we had an arrival here 53 00:02:49,550 --> 00:02:53,480 and what happened to the coin flip at that time. 54 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:55,540 Now, the coin flips are independent 55 00:02:55,540 --> 00:02:58,640 from the original Bernoulli process. 56 00:02:58,640 --> 00:03:01,940 And for either the coin flips or the Bernoulli process, 57 00:03:01,940 --> 00:03:03,800 we have independence across time. 58 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:07,380 So all of the four random variables involved here 59 00:03:07,380 --> 00:03:09,630 that determine what happens in these two slots 60 00:03:09,630 --> 00:03:12,170 are independent of each other. 61 00:03:12,170 --> 00:03:14,560 So what happens in this slot is a function 62 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:16,950 of two random variables here, which 63 00:03:16,950 --> 00:03:19,650 are independent from the two random variables that 64 00:03:19,650 --> 00:03:21,930 determined what happens in that slot. 65 00:03:21,930 --> 00:03:26,070 So what happens in these two slots are independent events. 66 00:03:26,070 --> 00:03:28,990 And this argument goes through more generally 67 00:03:28,990 --> 00:03:32,290 when we consider multiple distinct slots. 68 00:03:32,290 --> 00:03:35,470 So this is the argument for the independence 69 00:03:35,470 --> 00:03:39,740 of the different slots in this particular process. 70 00:03:39,740 --> 00:03:42,500 And then during each slot, what happens 71 00:03:42,500 --> 00:03:45,140 is that we will have an arrival if and only 72 00:03:45,140 --> 00:03:48,680 if this process records an arrival, which happens 73 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:52,490 with probability p, and the corresponding coin 74 00:03:52,490 --> 00:03:57,300 flip happens to send the arrival in this direction, which 75 00:03:57,300 --> 00:03:59,170 happens with probability q. 76 00:03:59,170 --> 00:04:01,300 And so the conclusion is that this process 77 00:04:01,300 --> 00:04:04,310 is a Bernoulli process with parameter p times q. 78 00:04:04,310 --> 00:04:09,600 By a similar argument, the other process that we obtain 79 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:15,250 will also be Bernoulli but with probability p times 1 minus q. 80 00:04:15,250 --> 00:04:19,040 And a final question-- are these two processes 81 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:23,530 that we get after the splitting independent of each other? 82 00:04:23,530 --> 00:04:25,600 This is a question that we can answer 83 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,110 by reasoning intuitively. 84 00:04:28,110 --> 00:04:32,920 If I tell you that there was an arrival in this slot, 85 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,780 what can you infer from this? 86 00:04:35,780 --> 00:04:38,700 Well, it tells me that there was an arrival 87 00:04:38,700 --> 00:04:42,290 in the original stream, which was sent here. 88 00:04:42,290 --> 00:04:44,600 But since it was sent in this direction, 89 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,730 it means that it was not sent in the other direction. 90 00:04:47,730 --> 00:04:51,960 And so we do not have an arrival in this slot. 91 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,060 Knowing that we have an arrival here 92 00:04:54,060 --> 00:04:56,720 means that we do not have an arrival there. 93 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,500 So information about one of the streams 94 00:04:59,500 --> 00:05:03,280 gives us information about what happened in the other stream. 95 00:05:03,280 --> 00:05:05,950 And therefore, we do not have independence. 96 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,890 So this is what happens when we split two Bernoulli processes. 97 00:05:11,890 --> 00:05:14,010 And earlier we saw what happens when 98 00:05:14,010 --> 00:05:17,090 we merge two independent Bernoulli processes. 99 00:05:17,090 --> 00:05:19,480 These two operations of merging and splitting 100 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:23,690 are quite common in constructing more complex models 101 00:05:23,690 --> 00:05:29,020 using Bernoulli processes as the elements of those models. 102 00:05:29,020 --> 00:05:32,350 They are often useful models either in transportation 103 00:05:32,350 --> 00:05:34,800 systems, where you have streams of traffic 104 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:39,690 that merge or split, also in models of computer networks 105 00:05:39,690 --> 00:05:42,510 or any other kind of queueing system. 106 00:05:42,510 --> 00:05:45,310 And these same operations of merging and splitting 107 00:05:45,310 --> 00:05:48,740 will also show up when we study the continuous time 108 00:05:48,740 --> 00:05:52,697 analog of the Bernoulli process, namely the Poisson process.