1 00:00:00,499 --> 00:00:03,380 In this segment, we consider the sum of independent Poisson 2 00:00:03,380 --> 00:00:07,120 random variables, and we establish a remarkable fact, 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:10,710 namely that the sum is also Poisson. 4 00:00:10,710 --> 00:00:13,120 This is a fact that we can establish 5 00:00:13,120 --> 00:00:15,630 by using the convolution formula. 6 00:00:15,630 --> 00:00:19,380 The PMF of the sum of independent random variables 7 00:00:19,380 --> 00:00:21,980 is the convolution of their PMFs. 8 00:00:21,980 --> 00:00:25,700 So we can take two Poisson PMFs, convolve them, carry out 9 00:00:25,700 --> 00:00:28,490 the algebra, and find out that in the end, 10 00:00:28,490 --> 00:00:31,130 you obtain again a Poisson PMF. 11 00:00:31,130 --> 00:00:34,440 However, such a derivation is completely unintuitive, 12 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:36,520 and does not give you any insight. 13 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,540 Instead, we will derive this fact 14 00:00:39,540 --> 00:00:42,500 by using our intuition about what 15 00:00:42,500 --> 00:00:45,660 Poisson random variables really represent. 16 00:00:45,660 --> 00:00:48,650 We will work with a Poisson process 17 00:00:48,650 --> 00:00:51,870 of rate lambda equal to 1. 18 00:00:51,870 --> 00:00:56,700 But let us remind ourselves of the general Poisson PMF 19 00:00:56,700 --> 00:01:01,060 if we have a more general rate lambda. 20 00:01:01,060 --> 00:01:04,260 This is the PMF of the number of arrivals 21 00:01:04,260 --> 00:01:07,790 in a Poisson process with rate lambda during a time 22 00:01:07,790 --> 00:01:09,840 interval of length tau. 23 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:14,890 And this Poisson PMF has a mean equal to lambda tau. 24 00:01:14,890 --> 00:01:17,510 And you can think of lambda tau as being 25 00:01:17,510 --> 00:01:20,480 the parameter of this Poisson PMF. 26 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:24,550 So we say that this is a Poisson PMF with parameter 27 00:01:24,550 --> 00:01:27,510 equal to lambda times tau. 28 00:01:27,510 --> 00:01:33,400 Now, let us consider two consecutive time intervals 29 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:39,979 in this processes that have length mu and nu. 30 00:01:44,070 --> 00:01:47,370 And let us consider the numbers of arrivals 31 00:01:47,370 --> 00:01:49,729 during each one of these intervals. 32 00:01:49,729 --> 00:01:53,930 So we have M arrivals here and N arrivals there. 33 00:01:53,930 --> 00:01:57,289 Of course, M and N are random variables. 34 00:01:57,289 --> 00:01:59,710 What kind of random variables are they? 35 00:01:59,710 --> 00:02:04,070 Well, the number of arrivals in the Poisson process of rate 1, 36 00:02:04,070 --> 00:02:08,330 over a period of duration mu is going 37 00:02:08,330 --> 00:02:14,050 to have a Poisson PMF in which lambda is one, tau, 38 00:02:14,050 --> 00:02:16,480 the time interval is equal to mu, 39 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:21,270 so it's going to be a Poisson random variable with parameter, 40 00:02:21,270 --> 00:02:25,120 or mean, equal to mu. 41 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:29,560 Similarly for N, it's going to be a Poisson random variable 42 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:33,160 with parameter equal to nu. 43 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,940 Are these two random variables independent? 44 00:02:35,940 --> 00:02:37,250 Of course they are. 45 00:02:37,250 --> 00:02:39,550 In a Poisson process, the numbers 46 00:02:39,550 --> 00:02:42,170 of arrivals in disjoint time intervals 47 00:02:42,170 --> 00:02:46,020 are independent random variables. 48 00:02:46,020 --> 00:02:50,200 What kind of random variable is their sum? 49 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,650 Their sum is the total number of arrivals 50 00:02:53,650 --> 00:02:57,680 during an interval of length mu plus nu, 51 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,750 and therefore this is a Poisson random variable 52 00:03:01,750 --> 00:03:06,440 with mean equal to mu plus nu. 53 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:08,340 So, what do we have here? 54 00:03:08,340 --> 00:03:11,040 We have the sum of two independent Poisson random 55 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,760 variables, and that sum turns out also 56 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,660 to be a Poisson random variable. 57 00:03:16,660 --> 00:03:19,740 More generally, if somebody gives you 58 00:03:19,740 --> 00:03:22,940 two independent Poisson random variables, 59 00:03:22,940 --> 00:03:26,680 you can always think of them as representing numbers 60 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,480 of arrivals in disjoint time intervals, 61 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,100 and therefore by following this argument, 62 00:03:32,100 --> 00:03:35,980 their sum is going to be a Poisson random variable. 63 00:03:35,980 --> 00:03:39,130 And this is the conclusion that we wanted to establish. 64 00:03:39,130 --> 00:03:41,380 It's a remarkable fact. 65 00:03:41,380 --> 00:03:44,550 It's similar to the fact that we had established 66 00:03:44,550 --> 00:03:46,420 for normal random variables. 67 00:03:46,420 --> 00:03:49,100 The sum of independent normal random variables 68 00:03:49,100 --> 00:03:53,760 is also normal, so Poisson and normal distributions 69 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,250 are special in this respect. 70 00:03:56,250 --> 00:04:00,100 This is a property that most other distributions do not 71 00:04:00,100 --> 00:04:03,220 have, with very few exceptions.